Illinois at Minnesota - 2023 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -1.5 (43.0) (-142) Open: -3.5
Illinois 27 - Minnesota: 26 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 29 (22 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MINN 2nd straight Home Game
ILL coming off BYE
Our Line: Minnesota -1 (SP+ MINN -1)
Projected Score: ILL: 23 - MINN: 24 (47)
MINN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
ILL Travel: 422 miles

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (21 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
MINN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#66 (.2)	45% (30)	24.5	44% (56)	3.31 (32)	125	48% (14)	266	3.9 (71)	#85 (.2)	44% (102)	29.4	45% (87)	45% (110)	4.09 (96)	62.4	1.9	1.3
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	20.9	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	26.7	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	12	24.5	21.8	45.5%	3.9	1.9	20	391	125	266	3.8	45%	53%	44%	48%	20%	.2
MINN Defense	13	26.7	22.7	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	12	29.4	28.6	44.4%	4.09	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	45%	15%	.2
MINN Offense	13	20.9	21.4	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	12	28:24	20.3	37%	54%	6.6	62.4	1.9	1.3	4.8	1.9	2	26
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	12	45% (103)	44% (56)	33	125.1	3.8	12 (116)	.07 (108)	3.31 (32)	67% (109)	12% (98)	0.84 (125)
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	12	51% (75)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.15 (78)	3.27 (104)	73% (68)	9% (100)	0.89 (22)
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	12	53% (35)	48% (14)	21.8	34.5	265.9	7.7	12.2	23 (51)	13 (97)	.37 (35)	1.5 (108)	28% (14)	33% (48)	.36 (63)	9% (130)	1.9 (108)
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	12	49% (69)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.28 (76)	1.5 (21)	31% (78)	34% (114)	.3 (63)	6% (62)	1.8 (7)
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -0.29 Minnesota: -0.24

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -2.6 Minnesota: -1.3

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -0.24 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 24
Illinois 23

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 27
Illinois 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Minnesota 25
Illinois 24

Total Points: 49

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Illinois	17	Minnesota	25	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.0	Under
2023	11/04	Minnesota	26	Illinois	27	Minnesota -1.5	Illinois	43.0	Over
2022	10/15	Illinois	26	Minnesota	14	Minnesota -4.5	Illinois	40.0	Push
2021	11/06	Minnesota	6	Illinois	14	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	44.5	Under
2020	11/07	Illinois	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	64.5	Under
2019	10/05	Minnesota	40	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14	Minnesota	58.0	Under
2018	11/03	Illinois	55	Minnesota	31	Minnesota -8.5	Illinois	61.5	Over
2017	10/21	Minnesota	24	Illinois	17	Minnesota -14.5	Illinois	48.5	Under
2016	10/29	Illinois	17	Minnesota	40	Minnesota -10	Minnesota	46.5	Over
2015	11/21	Minnesota	32	Illinois	23	Minnesota -4.5	Minnesota	47.0	Over
2014	10/25	Illinois	28	Minnesota	24	Minnesota -6.5	Illinois	0
2012	11/10	Illinois	3	Minnesota	17
2011	11/26	Minnesota	27	Illinois	7
2010	11/13	Illinois	34	Minnesota	38
2009	11/07	Minnesota	32	Illinois	35
2008	10/11	Illinois	20	Minnesota	27
2007	11/03	Minnesota	17	Illinois	44
2004	10/23	Minnesota	45	Illinois	0
2003	10/25	Illinois	10	Minnesota	36
2002	10/03	Minnesota	31	Illinois	10
2001	10/06	Illinois	25	Minnesota	14
2000	09/29	Minnesota	44	Illinois	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Minnesota	14	5	4 Overs
Illinois	8	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 11	5 - 6	2 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	11 - 11	6 - 5	3 - 3	3 - 2

(#63) ILL at (#88) MINN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	MINN
Power RatePwr	#63	#88
SP+SP+	#75	#69
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#70
OffenseOff	#70	#61
DefenseDef	#67	#91
Spec TeamsST	#7	#96
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#43

Illinois Injury Report

Minnesota Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#91
SuccessSuc	#30	#75
ExplosiveExp	#113	#75
PPAPPA	#66	#93
PowerPwr	#47	#99
SP+SP+	#90	#37
Pts POPPO	#71	#129
HavocHav	#124	#131

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#124	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#90
Run ExplRExp	#125	#63
PPAExp	#108	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#91
TackleTak	-	#113

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#73
PPAExp	#35	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#31
F7 HavocF7	#98	#132
DB HavocDB	#130	#116

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Perf GradePerf	#61	#67
SuccessSuc	#87	#102
ExplosiveExp	#128	#14
PPAPPA	#118	#85
PowerPwr	#108	#104
SP+SP+	#105	#49
Pts POPPO	#73	#96
HavocHav	#14	#87

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#44	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#87
Run ExplRExp	#127	#22
PPAExp	#92	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#83
TackleTak	-	#28

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#21
PPAExp	#123	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#69	#70
F7 HavocF7	#13	#100
DB HavocDB	#52	#62

Program Comparison
MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Huntington Bank Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 49° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Minnesota -1.5 (43.0)
Illinois won at Minnesota this year (27-26)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Illinois last year (25-17)
Illinois beat Minnesota in 2023 (27-26)
Illinois beat Minnesota in 2022 (26-14)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	156	294	53%	1838	14	9	6.3
Cole Kramer	8	17	47%	26	2	2	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	138	799	5	5.8	43
Jordan Nubin	127	559	3	4.4	21
Sean Tyler (Tr)	61	242	0	4.0	19
Zach Evans	52	230	1	4.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	59	831	8	14.1	39
Corey Crooms (Tr)	28	376	0	13.4	32
Brevyn Spann-Ford	25	239	2	9.6	31
Darius Taylor	11	92	0	8.4	25

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Nick Monroe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	52	4	0	0	1
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	0	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	0	3
Maverick Baranowski	48	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jah Joyner	18	8	8	2	0
Danny Striggow	42	6	6	2	0
Kyler Baugh	39	5	3	3	3
Jalen Logan-Redding	29	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Justin Walley	38	2	0	8
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	3