Illinois at Kansas - 2023 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Kansas Jayhawks

Friday, September 8th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Kansas -3.5 (57.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Kansas 34 - Illinois: 23

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Kansas -12.5 (SP+ KU -12)
Projected Score: ILL: 22 - KU: 35 (57)
KU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ILL Travel: 382 miles

Jayhawks (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (11 - 17)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#32)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
KU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Kansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Kansas vs Missouri State	-32.5	60.5	W 48 - 17	O	N
Fri 9/8	Kansas vs Illinois	-3.5	57.5	W 34 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Kansas at Nevada	-28.5	58.0	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	Kansas vs BYU	-9.0	55.5	W 38 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Kansas at Texas	+15.5	61.0	L 14 - 40	U	N
Sat 10/7	Kansas vs UCF	+2.0	65.0	W 51 - 22	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Kansas at Oklahoma State	-3.0	54.0	L 32 - 39	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Kansas vs Oklahoma	+7.0	66.5	W 38 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Kansas at Iowa State	+2.5	53.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Kansas vs Texas Tech	-3.5	61.5	L 13 - 16	U	N
Sat 11/18	Kansas vs Kansas State	+7.0	60.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Kansas at Cincinnati	-7.5	59.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
Tue 12/26	Kansas vs UNLV	-8.0	64.5	W 49 - 36	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.15	44%	29.4	43%	3.07	168	45%	209	3.37	-.02	33%	23.6	30%	36%	2.2	59.1	1.2	2.5
KU	.34	45%	28.1	42%	3.18	184	49%	254	4.46	.28	47%	26.8	50%	45%	4.01	46.5	1.5	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	13	29.4	26.6	43.8%	3.37	1.2	21	377	168	209	4	54%	46%	43%	45%	13%	.15
KU Defense	13	26.8	22.1	47.4%	4.01	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	50%	45%	12%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	13	23.6	35.6	32.8%	2.2	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	30%	36%	22%	-.02
KU Offense	13	28.1	32.6	44.8%	4.46	1.5	20	438	184	254	5.4	52%	48%	42%	49%	13%	.34

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	13	32:41	21.2	38%	48%	6.4	59.1	1.2	2.5	6.1	2.1	1	30.1
Kansas	13	28:50	20.3	51%	47%	5.3	46.5	1.5	1.8	4.4	1.8	1	29.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	13	54%	43%	41.9	167.7	4	18	.08	3.07	72%	10%	0.85
KU Defense	13	54%	50%	-	-	-	-	.28	3.49	77%	7%	0.98

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	13	45%	30%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.64	50%	11%	1.1
KU Offense	13	52%	42%	34.3	183.5	5.4	29	.2	3.18	74%	8%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	13	46%	45%	21	30.2	209.4	6.9	10	15	5	.25	1.4	30%	32%	.24	2%	1.7
KU Defense	13	45%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.35	1.5	29%	37%	.47	5%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	24	.07	1.4	36%	23%	.05	11%	2
KU Offense	13	48%	49%	18.6	28.5	254.4	8.9	13.7	32	8	.53	1.8	31%	39%	.6	5%	2.1

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 630.95 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -0.29 Kansas: 11.025

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -2.6 Kansas: 9.3

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 11.025 #27
Kansas's Offense Rating: 26.78 #8
Kansas's Defense Rating: 12.15 #98
2023 Talent Rating: 632.68 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Kansas's 2023 Expected Record: 8.60 - 4.40
Kansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #31
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.5 #22
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas 35
Illinois 22

Projected Total Points: 57

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Illinois	23	Kansas	17	Kansas -4.5	Illinois	58.5	Under
2023	09/08	Kansas	34	Illinois	23	Kansas -3.5	Kansas	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas	1	1	0 Overs
Illinois	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1

(#63) ILL at (#27) KU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	KU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#63	#27
SP+SP+	#75	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#16
OffenseOff	#70	#9
DefenseDef	#67	#54
Spec TeamsST	#7	#10
TalentTal	#63	#62
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#69

Illinois Injury Report

Kansas Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	KU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#54
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#47	#98
SP+SP+	#90	#58
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	#124	#80
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#82

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#28
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#89
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Kansas on Offense


CategoryCat	KU Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#9	#67
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#8	#104
SP+SP+	#22	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Kansas Run Game


CategoryCat	KU Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#48	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#28

Kansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	KU Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#20	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#21	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Kansas -3.5 (57.5)
Kansas won vs Illinois this year (34-23)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Kansas in 2024 (23-17)
Kansas beat Illinois in 2023 (34-23)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5

KU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jason Bean	124	199	62%	2130	18	7	10.7
Jalon Daniels	56	75	75%	705	5	1	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Neal	203	1280	16	6.3	75
Daniel Hishaw Jr.	121	626	8	5.2	29
Jason Bean	47	282	3	6.0	50
Dylan McDuffie (Tr)	45	253	4	5.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrence Arnold	44	782	6	17.8	80
Quentin Skinner	29	587	2	20.2	49
Luke Grimm	33	555	6	16.8	60
Mason Fairchild	27	451	3	16.7	59

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC Brian Borland (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenny Logan Jr.	86	5	0	0	6
Austin Booker (Tr)	55	12	8	0	1
JB Brown (Tr)	54	5	2	1	2
Rich Miller	52	3	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Austin Booker (Tr)	55	12	8	0	1
Jereme Robinson	23	6	5	5	6
JB Brown (Tr)	54	5	2	1	2
Rich Miller	52	3	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ra'Mello Dotson	34	1	1	1	8
Kenny Logan Jr.	86	5	0	0	6
Jereme Robinson	23	6	5	5	6