UTEP at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Northwestern -1 (40.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Northwestern 38 - UTEP: 7

Miners (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dana Dimel (18 - 43)
Avg Score : 20 - 29 (21 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Northwestern -15 (SP+ NW -15)
Projected Score: UTEP: 14 - NW: 29 (43)
NW Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UTEP Travel: 1255 miles, 1 hrs behind

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UTEP Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UTEP's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	UTEP at Jacksonville State	-1.5	54.5	L 14 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/2	UTEP vs Incarnate Word	-7.5	57.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UTEP at Northwestern	+1.0	40.0	L 7 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/16	UTEP at Arizona	+18.0	57.0	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	UTEP vs UNLV	-1.0	49.5	L 28 - 45	O	N
Fri 9/29	UTEP vs Louisiana Tech	+2.0	49.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/11	UTEP at Florida International	-1.5	44.0	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Wed 10/18	UTEP vs New Mexico State	+3.0	48.5	L 7 - 28	U	N
Wed 10/25	UTEP at Sam Houston	+4.0	38.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/4	UTEP vs Western Kentucky	+9.5	54.5	L 13 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	UTEP at Middle Tennessee	+8.5	48.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/25	UTEP vs Liberty	+18.0	54.5	L 28 - 42	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UTEP's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#80 (.17)	39% (103)	19.9	43% (62)	3.05 (83)	144	36% (113)	218	3.59 (93)	#109 (.25)	43% (88)	28.5	48% (122)	38% (23)	4.62 (127)	58.8	1.5	1
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTEP	#121 (.07)	37% (124)		38% (118)	2.8 (106)	121	36% (117)	200	2.81 (132)	#46 (.13)	40% (42)		40% (42)	39% (46)	3.85 (78)	50.9	1.6	1.5
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Offense	12	19.9	20.8	39.5%	3.59	1.5	18	362	144	218	3.9	53%	46%	43%	36%	16%	.17
NW Defense	13	22.5	24	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTEP Defense	12	28.5	28	43.4%	4.62	1	-	-	-	-	-	57%	43%	48%	38%	15%	.25
NW Offense	13	22.1	27.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UTEP	12	31:25	18.3	33%	45%	6.8	58.8	1.5	1	4.3	2	1	26.1
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Offense	12	53% (42)	43% (62)	37.3	144.3	3.9	16 (89)	.09 (105)	3.05 (83)	76% (44)	9% (51)	0.89 (119)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTEP Defense	12	57% (126)	48% (122)	-	-	-	-	.28 (127)	3.35 (113)	76% (89)	9% (106)	1.1 (112)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Offense	12	46% (94)	36% (113)	14.8	27.5	217.7	7.9	14.7	13 (111)	12 (85)	.29 (68)	1.9 (6)	32% (82)	29% (82)	.34 (65)	7% (104)	2.1 (37)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTEP Defense	12	43% (8)	38% (23)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.26 (61)	1.7 (104)	32% (67)	31% (87)	.48 (126)	7% (50)	2.3 (128)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

UTEP's Power Ratings
UTEP's Power Rating: -11.53 #123
UTEP's Offense Rating: 15.53 #77
UTEP's Defense Rating: 14.62 #116
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
UTEP's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
UTEP's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9 #120
UTEP's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2 #116
UTEP's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #100

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -11.53 Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UTEP: -15.9 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

UTEP Scoring
Offense: 19.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 28.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

UTEP's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 29
UTEP 14

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
UTEP 29
Northwestern 14

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 26
UTEP 22

Total Points: 48

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Northwestern	38	UTEP	7	Northwestern -1	Northwestern	40.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	1	1	1 Overs
UTEP	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#123) UTEP at (#66) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTEP	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#123	#66
SP+SP+	#120	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#57	#82
OffenseOff	#49	#109
DefenseDef	#68	#34
Spec TeamsST	#26	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#49

UTEP Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

UTEP on Offense


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#49	#34
SuccessSuc	#103	#83
ExplosiveExp	#49	#6
PPAPPA	#80	#33
PowerPwr	#77	#66
SP+SP+	#116	#30
Pts POPPO	#93	#56
HavocHav	#72	#115

UTEP Run Game


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#70	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#62	#73
Run ExplRExp	#119	#31
PPAExp	#105	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#12	-
OL YdsOLY	#83	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#98	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

UTEP Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTEP Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#113	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#113	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#6	#9
PPAExp	#68	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#2	#122
F7 HavocF7	#51	#105
DB HavocDB	#104	#101

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTEP Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#68
SuccessSuc	#110	#88
ExplosiveExp	#108	#90
PPAPPA	#113	#109
PowerPwr	#79	#116
SP+SP+	#104	#100
Pts POPPO	#48	#127
HavocHav	#67	#88

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTEP Def
Run GameRun	#126	#109
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#122
Run ExplRExp	#128	#112
PPAExp	#120	#127
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#113
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#72
TackleTak	-	#116

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTEP Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#80
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#23
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#104
PPAExp	#100	#61
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#5
F7 HavocF7	#88	#106
DB HavocDB	#23	#50

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

UTEP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 2
Northwestern -1.0 (40.0)
Northwestern won vs UTEP this year (38-7)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat UTEP in 2023 (38-7)

UTEP's OC Scotty Ohara (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade McConnell	92	172	54%	1437	6	4	8.4
Gavin Hardison	73	129	57%	947	5	7	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Hankins	157	812	5	5.2	54
Torrance Burgess Jr.	124	620	2	5.0	40
Mike Franklin	45	180	3	4.0	21
Ezell Jolly	15	53	0	3.5	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kelly Akharaiyi	48	1033	7	21.5	80
Jeremiah Ballard	34	551	1	16.2	50
Torrance Burgess Jr.	17	227	0	13.4	51
Tyrin Smith	19	191	1	10.1	24

View UTEP's Full Roster

UTEP's DC Bradley Dale Peveto (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6
James Neal	67	2	1	4	2
Kobe Hylton	47	1	0	1	4
Maurice Westmoreland	34	9	8	4	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurice Westmoreland	34	9	8	4	2
Praise Amaewhule	24	6	5	7	2
Kanious Vaughn	19	6	5	1	0
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
A.J. Odums (Tr)	30	1	0	0	7
Tyrice Knight	113	13	4	3	6
Torey Richardson	26	3	1	0	6

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4