Northwestern at Nebraska - 2023 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers(#25)

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Nebraska -10.5 (40.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Nebraska 17 - Northwestern: 9 (Big Ten)

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
NW coming off BYE
NEB coming off BYE
Our Line: Nebraska -4.5 (SP+ NEB -2)
Projected Score: NW: 19 - NEB: 24 (43)
NEB Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
NW Travel: 474 miles

Cornhuskers (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Matt Rhule (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 18 (20 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
NEB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Nebraska's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Nebraska at Minnesota	+7.5	43.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Nebraska at Colorado	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 36	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nebraska vs Northern Illinois	-11.5	42.5	W 35 - 11	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Nebraska vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	44.5	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/30	Nebraska vs Michigan	+17.0	39.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Fri 10/6	Nebraska at Illinois	+3.5	43.0	W 20 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Nebraska vs Northwestern	-10.5	40.0	W 17 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/28	Nebraska vs Purdue	+1.0	39.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nebraska at Michigan State	-3.0	34.5	L 17 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/11	Nebraska vs Maryland	+1.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/18	Nebraska at Wisconsin	+7.5	36.5	L 17 - 24	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Nebraska vs Iowa	-3.0	25.5	L 10 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8
NEB	#105 (.13)	38% (111)	18	42% (84)	3.31 (33)	177	34% (125)	136	3.33 (104)	#18 (.1)	38% (22)	18.3	37% (18)	39% (31)	3.09 (16)	42.3	2.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
NEB	#74 (.18)	45% (37)		48% (22)	3.21 (40)	121	43% (55)	210	3.38 (114)	#44 (.13)	40% (50)		39% (24)	42% (82)	3.06 (11)	48.9	1.3	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	13	22.1	19.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1
NEB Defense	12	18.3	17	37.6%	3.09	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	37%	39%	20%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	13	22.5	26.4	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14
NEB Offense	12	18	19.7	38.1%	3.33	2.6	16	313	177	136	4.4	62%	36%	42%	34%	22%	.13

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7
Nebraska	12	30:53	16.4	38%	50%	5	42.3	2.6	1.2	6.3	2.7	0	29

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)
NEB Defense	12	43% (8)	37% (18)	-	-	-	-	.03 (16)	3.15 (81)	73% (70)	12% (22)	0.77 (3)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)
NEB Offense	12	62% (5)	42% (84)	39.8	176.8	4.4	16 (89)	.12 (84)	3.31 (33)	76% (51)	14% (129)	0.99 (72)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)
NEB Defense	12	56% (126)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.2 (31)	1.5 (35)	35% (25)	26% (20)	.27 (44)	8% (17)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)
NEB Offense	12	36% (129)	34% (125)	11.3	21.8	135.9	6.3	12	10 (120)	16 (121)	.24 (85)	1.9 (7)	34% (100)	25% (118)	.28 (84)	7% (110)	2.4 (5)

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.56 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -0.56 Nebraska: 3.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -1.4 Nebraska: 0.1

Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 3.355 #53
Nebraska's Offense Rating: 10.32 #121
Nebraska's Defense Rating: 5.24 #28
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Nebraska's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Nebraska's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #65
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.0 #123
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Nebraska 24
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
Nebraska 29
Northwestern 20

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Nebraska 22
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 41

Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Nebraska's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Nebraska	28	Northwestern	21	Nebraska -7.5	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	10/21	Nebraska	17	Northwestern	9	Nebraska -10.5	Northwestern	40.0	Under
2022	08/27	Northwestern	31	Nebraska	28	Nebraska -12	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2021	10/02	Nebraska	56	Northwestern	7	Nebraska -11	Nebraska	51.5	Over
2020	11/07	Northwestern	21	Nebraska	13	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	53.0	Under
2019	10/05	Nebraska	13	Northwestern	10	Nebraska -7.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2018	10/13	Northwestern	34	Nebraska	31	Northwestern -3	Push	59.0	Over
2017	11/04	Nebraska	24	Northwestern	31	Nebraska -1	Northwestern	55.5	Under
2016	09/24	Northwestern	13	Nebraska	24	Nebraska -6.5	Nebraska	48.0	Under
2015	10/24	Nebraska	28	Northwestern	30	Nebraska -6.5	Northwestern	50.0	Over
2014	10/18	Northwestern	17	Nebraska	38	Nebraska -6.5	Nebraska	0
2013	11/02	Nebraska	27	Northwestern	24	Nebraska -7	Northwestern	0
2012	10/20	Northwestern	28	Nebraska	29
2011	11/05	Nebraska	25	Northwestern	28
2000	12/29	Nebraska	66	Northwestern	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nebraska	9	3	5 Overs
Northwestern	6	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	3 - 8	2 - 6	1 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 9	8 - 3	2 - 1	6 - 2

(#66) NW at (#53) NEB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	NEB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#66	#53
SP+SP+	#71	#65
Perf GradeGrade	#82	#98
OffenseOff	#109	#125
DefenseDef	#34	#40
Spec TeamsST	#71	#9
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#49	#27

Northwestern Injury Report

Nebraska Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#40
SuccessSuc	#110	#22
ExplosiveExp	#108	#17
PPAPPA	#113	#18
PowerPwr	#79	#28
SP+SP+	#104	#8
Pts POPPO	#48	#16
HavocHav	#67	#12

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
Run GameRun	#126	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#18
Run ExplRExp	#128	#3
PPAExp	#120	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#122
TackleTak	-	#15

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	NEB Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#31
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#35
PPAExp	#100	#31
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#101	#91
F7 HavocF7	#88	#22
DB HavocDB	#23	#17

Nebraska on Offense


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#34
SuccessSuc	#111	#83
ExplosiveExp	#70	#6
PPAPPA	#105	#33
PowerPwr	#121	#66
SP+SP+	#123	#30
Pts POPPO	#104	#56
HavocHav	#130	#115

Nebraska Run Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#128	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#73
Run ExplRExp	#72	#31
PPAExp	#84	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#15	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Nebraska Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#125	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#9
PPAExp	#85	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#122
F7 HavocF7	#129	#105
DB HavocDB	#110	#101

Program Comparison
NEB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Nebraska -10.5 (40.0)
Nebraska won vs Northwestern this year (17-9)

Previous Matchups
Nebraska beat Northwestern in 2023 (17-9)
Northwestern beat Nebraska in 2022 (31-28)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4

NEB's OC Marcus Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Heinrich Haarberg	77	157	49%	967	7	7	6.2
Chubba Purdy	31	57	54%	382	2	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Heinrich Haarberg	120	477	5	4.0	72
Anthony Grant	104	413	3	4.0	34
Emmett Johnson	90	411	2	4.6	29
Gabe Ervin	38	196	1	5.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Billy Kemp (Tr)	35	310	1	8.9	34
Thomas Fidone Jr.	25	260	4	10.4	29
Jaylen Lloyd	6	237	3	39.5	73
Alex Bullock	15	221	1	14.7	34

View Nebraska's Full Roster

NEB's DC Tony White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	0	8
Javin Wright	51	2	1	0	2
Omar Brown	51	3	0	0	3
John Bullock	50	3	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimari Butler	34	9	6	1	2
Luke Reimer	48	8	5	5	0
Nash Hutmacher	40	8	5	4	2
Cameron Lenhardt	16	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Tommi Hill	26	1	0	9
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	8
Malcolm Hartzog	40	2	0	6