Illinois at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview
Illinois logo Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Purdue -1.0 (54.0) (0)  Open: -1.5
Purdue 44 - Illinois: 19  (Big Ten)

 
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PUR 3rd straight Home Game
PUR is playing their 5th straight game
ILL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -1   (SP+ ILL -5)
Projected Score: ILL: 27 - PUR: 26 (53)
PUR Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
ILL Travel: 73 miles, 1 hrs behind
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28ON
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34UN
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44ON
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26OY
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL.1544%28.343%3.0716845%2093.37-.0233%21.730%36%2.259.11.22.5
PUR.1544%15.847%312143%2783.52.1641%39.942%41%4.3853.41.61.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Offense1328.321.343.8%3.371.221377168209454%46%43%45%13%.15
PUR Defense1439.93440.8%4.381.7 - - - - - 50%49%42%41%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ILL Defense1321.728.532.8%2.22.5 - - - - - 45%53%30%36%22%-.02
PUR Offense1415.81643.7%3.521.6233991212783.641%58%47%43%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Illinois1332:4121.238%48%6.459.11.22.56.12.1130.1
Purdue1431:512338%55%5.353.41.61.74.31.9328.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Offense1354%43%41.9167.7418.083.0772%10%0.85
PUR Defense1450%42% - - - - .123.0471%9%0.93
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ILL Defense1345%30% - - - - -.032.6450%11%1.1
PUR Offense1441%47%33.4121.13.617.09379%6%0.76

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Offense1346%45%2130.2209.46.910155.251.430%32%.242%1.7
PUR Defense1449%41% - - - - - - 15.281.630%23%.097%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ILL Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 24.071.436%23%.0511%2
PUR Offense1458%43%26.341.5278.26.710.62617.241.430%28%.187%1.8

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -0.29   Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -2.6   Purdue: -7.4




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 642.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.5

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Illinois 27
Purdue 26

Projected Total Points: 53
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 16
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Illinois50Purdue49IllinoisIllinois -22.5Purdue47.5Over
202309/30Purdue44Illinois19PurduePurdue -1.0Purdue54.0Over
202211/12Illinois24Purdue31PurdueIllinois -6.0Purdue44.0Over
202109/25Purdue13Illinois9PurduePurdue -10.5Illinois53.5Under
202010/31Illinois24Purdue31PurduePurdue -7.0NA0
201910/26Purdue6Illinois24IllinoisPurdue -9Illinois54.5Under
201810/13Illinois7Purdue46PurduePurdue -10.5Purdue62.0Under
201711/04Purdue29Illinois10PurduePurdue -14Purdue50.0Under
201610/08Illinois31Purdue34PurdueIllinois -9Purdue49.5Over
201511/07Purdue14Illinois48IllinoisIllinois -1.5Illinois50.0Over
201410/04Illinois27Purdue38PurdueIllinois -10.5Purdue0
201311/23Purdue16Illinois20IllinoisIllinois -6.5Purdue0
201211/17Illinois17Purdue20Purdue
201110/22Purdue21Illinois14Purdue
201010/30Illinois44Purdue10Illinois
200910/24Purdue24Illinois14Purdue
200611/11Illinois31Purdue42Purdue
200511/12Purdue37Illinois3Purdue
200409/25Illinois30Purdue38Purdue
200310/04Purdue43Illinois10Purdue
200210/12Illinois38Purdue31Illinois
200111/03Purdue13Illinois38Illinois
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue1585 Overs
Illinois734 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams10 - 123 - 82 - 61 - 2
Road Teams12 - 108 - 32 - 16 - 2

(#63) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49
Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Team Profile






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Illinois     Ratings Matchup     Purdue
Power #63
#81
Off #47
#90
Def #104
#83
Talent #62
#65
SP+ #75
#90
SP+ Off #90
#89
SP+ Def #49
#72

Rematch from Week 5
Purdue -1.0 (54.0)
Purdue won vs Illinois this year (44-19)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Purdue last year (50-49)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2023 (44-19)
Purdue beat Illinois in 2022 (31-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84° - Wind: 9 mph


Team Information
Injuries: ILL | PUR
Depth Chart: ILL | PUR
Rosters: ILL | PUR
(#81) Purdue Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.56 #81
Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 642.00 #65
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #37
Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30

Team Profile






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Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Love III8337224.522
Patrick Bryant51402.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Eian Pugh53707.414
Reggie Love III72103.06
Owen Anderson21316.511

View Illinois's Full Roster
Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Ryan Meed501011
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Tahveon Nicholson323001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Dylan Davis192110
Christian Lorenzo171131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Zachary Tobe172003
Ryan Meed501011

Purdue's OC Graham Harrell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)14424858%1641976.6
Christian Gelov1333%26008.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Downing4415213.515
Deion Burks53206.411
Christian Gelov112012.012
Ben Furtney1-50-5.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Sheffield5450539.458
Elijah Canion25354314.250
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen21254012.151
Deion Burks3124537.920

View Purdue's Full Roster
Purdue's DC Kevin Kane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kydran Jenkins8313751
O.C. Brothers473021
Nic Caraway3714442
Clyde Washington363010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Nic Caraway3714442
Khordae Sydnor147422
Prince Boyd Jr.31101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Markevious Brown (Tr)90003
Nic Caraway3714442
Braxton Myers (Tr)312002