Illinois at Maryland - 2023 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Maryland -13.5 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Illinois 27 - Maryland: 24 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MD is playing their 7th straight game
ILL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Maryland -12 (SP+ MD -12)
Projected Score: ILL: 21 - MD: 33 (54)
MD Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
ILL Travel: 606 miles, 1 hrs behind

Terrapins (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Locksley (24 - 28)
Avg Score : 24 - 27 (26 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 5.1 (#46)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
MD Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Maryland's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Maryland vs Towson	-38.5	55.5	W 38 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/9	Maryland vs Charlotte	-24.5	50.0	W 38 - 20	O	N
Fri 9/15	Maryland vs Virginia	-16.5	48.5	W 42 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Maryland at Michigan State	-7.0	52.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Maryland vs Indiana	-14.5	50.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Maryland at Ohio State	+17.0	56.5	L 17 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Maryland vs Illinois	-13.5	52.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Maryland at Northwestern	-14.0	48.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 11/4	Maryland vs Penn State	+8.5	50.5	L 15 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/11	Maryland at Nebraska	-1.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Maryland vs Michigan	+17.5	50.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Maryland at Rutgers	-2.0	45.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Maryland vs Auburn	+4.0	47.5	W 31 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.15	44%	29.4	43%	3.07	168	45%	209	3.37	-.02	33%	23.6	30%	36%	2.2	59.1	1.2	2.5
MD	.19	41%	23.5	42%	2.95	141	41%	260	4.19	.1	40%	26.5	41%	40%	3.44	71.1	1.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MD		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	13	29.4	26.6	43.8%	3.37	1.2	21	377	168	209	4	54%	46%	43%	45%	13%	.15
MD Defense	13	26.5	27.3	40.2%	3.44	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	41%	40%	15%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	13	23.6	35.6	32.8%	2.2	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	30%	36%	22%	-.02
MD Offense	13	23.5	26.3	41%	4.19	1.2	20	402	141	260	3.9	46%	53%	42%	41%	17%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	13	32:41	21.2	38%	48%	6.4	59.1	1.2	2.5	6.1	2.1	1	30.1
Maryland	13	31:06	20.2	42%	61%	7.8	71.1	1.2	1.6	4.8	1.8	0	28.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	13	54%	43%	41.9	167.7	4	18	.08	3.07	72%	10%	0.85
MD Defense	13	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.94	76%	9%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	13	45%	30%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.64	50%	11%	1.1
MD Offense	13	46%	42%	36.1	141.3	3.9	23	.13	2.95	66%	12%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	13	46%	45%	21	30.2	209.4	6.9	10	15	5	.25	1.4	30%	32%	.24	2%	1.7
MD Defense	13	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.16	1.4	32%	28%	.2	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	24	.07	1.4	36%	23%	.05	11%	2
MD Offense	13	53%	41%	22.6	34.3	260.2	7.6	11.5	21	8	.25	1.6	32%	25%	.23	5%	2.2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 630.95 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -0.29 Maryland: 10.43

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -2.6 Maryland: 9.2

Maryland's Power Ratings
Maryland's Power Rating: 10.43 #31
Maryland's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Maryland's Defense Rating: 7.24 #40
2023 Talent Rating: 685.75 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 19 #33
Maryland's 2023 Expected Record: 7.90 - 5.10
Maryland's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.2 #33
Maryland's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
Maryland's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #20

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Maryland 33
Illinois 21

Projected Total Points: 54

Maryland Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Maryland's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Illinois	24	Maryland	6	Illinois -15.5	Illinois	51.5	Under
2023	10/14	Maryland	24	Illinois	27	Maryland -13.5	Illinois	52.0	Under
2021	09/17	Illinois	17	Maryland	20	Maryland -7	Illinois	61.5	Under
2018	10/27	Maryland	63	Illinois	33	Maryland -16.5	Maryland	56.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Maryland	2	1	1 Overs
Illinois	2	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	1 - 3	0 - 1	1 - 2

(#63) ILL at (#31) MD

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	MD
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#63	#31
SP+SP+	#75	#33
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#67
OffenseOff	#70	#63
DefenseDef	#67	#57
Spec TeamsST	#7	#64
TalentTal	#63	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#33

Illinois Injury Report

Maryland Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MD Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#57
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#47	#40
SP+SP+	#90	#20
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MD Def
Run GameRun	#124	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#32

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	MD Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#20
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#77
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Maryland on Offense


CategoryCat	MD Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#67
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#104
SP+SP+	#50	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Maryland Run Game


CategoryCat	MD Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#70	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#28

Maryland Pass Game


CategoryCat	MD Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#45	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#54	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MD 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Maryland Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Maryland -13.5 (52.0)
Illinois won at Maryland this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Maryland last year (24-6)
Illinois beat Maryland in 2023 (27-24)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5

MD's OC Josh Gattis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taulia Tagovailoa	290	437	66%	3377	25	11	7.7
Billy Edwards	10	30	33%	128	1	1	4.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roman Hemby	143	680	4	4.8	40
Colby McDonald	53	306	2	5.8	35
Antwain Littleton II	69	255	2	3.7	32
Billy Edwards	29	91	7	3.1	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jeshaun Jones	56	790	4	14.1	64
Tai Felton	48	723	6	15.1	57
Kaden Prather (Tr)	42	666	5	15.9	57
Corey Dyches	49	491	2	10.0	44

View Maryland's Full Roster

MD's DC Brian Williams (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Beau Brade	75	4	0	6
Ruben Hyppolite II	66	3	1	1
Dante Trader Jr.	53	1	0	7
Tarheeb Still	45	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kellan Wyatt	34	7	5	3	1
Caleb Wheatland	41	6	4	2	1
Tre Colbert	27	3	3	0	0
Jaishawn Barham	37	3	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaquan Sheppard	31	3	1	8
Dante Trader Jr.	53	1	0	7
Beau Brade	75	4	0	6