Nebraska at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Illinois Fighting Illini(#22)

Friday, October 6th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Illinois -3.5 (43.0) (-155) Open: -3.0 | 44.5
Nebraska 20 - Illinois: 7 (Big Ten)

Cornhuskers (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Matt Rhule (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 18 (16 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
ILL is playing their 6th straight game
NEB is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -0 (SP+ NEB -2.5)
Projected Score: NEB: 23 - ILL: 23 (45)
ILL Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NEB Travel: 448 miles

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 29 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEB Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nebraska's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Nebraska at Minnesota	+7.5	43.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Nebraska at Colorado	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 36	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nebraska vs Northern Illinois	-11.5	42.5	W 35 - 11	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Nebraska vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	44.5	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/30	Nebraska vs Michigan	+17.0	39.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Fri 10/6	Nebraska at Illinois	+3.5	43.0	W 20 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Nebraska vs Northwestern	-10.5	40.0	W 17 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/28	Nebraska vs Purdue	+1.0	39.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nebraska at Michigan State	-3.0	34.5	L 17 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/11	Nebraska vs Maryland	+1.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/18	Nebraska at Wisconsin	+7.5	36.5	L 17 - 24	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Nebraska vs Iowa	-3.0	25.5	L 10 - 13	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nebraska's Schedule

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEB	#105 (.13)	38% (111)	18	42% (84)	3.31 (33)	177	34% (125)	136	3.33 (104)	#18 (.1)	38% (22)	18.3	37% (18)	39% (31)	3.09 (16)	42.3	2.6	1.2
ILL	#66 (.2)	45% (30)	24.5	44% (56)	3.31 (32)	125	48% (14)	266	3.9 (71)	#85 (.2)	44% (102)	29.4	45% (87)	45% (110)	4.09 (96)	62.4	1.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEB	#74 (.18)	45% (37)		48% (22)	3.21 (40)	121	43% (55)	210	3.38 (114)	#44 (.13)	40% (50)		39% (24)	42% (82)	3.06 (11)	48.9	1.3	1.2
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEB Offense	12	18	15.6	38.1%	3.33	2.6	16	313	177	136	4.4	62%	36%	42%	34%	22%	.13
ILL Defense	12	29.4	30	44.4%	4.09	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	45%	15%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEB Defense	12	18.3	20	37.6%	3.09	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	37%	39%	20%	.1
ILL Offense	12	24.5	26.4	45.5%	3.9	1.9	20	391	125	266	3.8	45%	53%	44%	48%	20%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nebraska	12	30:53	16.4	38%	50%	5	42.3	2.6	1.2	6.3	2.7	0	29
Illinois	12	28:24	20.3	37%	54%	6.6	62.4	1.9	1.3	4.8	1.9	2	26

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEB Offense	12	62% (5)	42% (84)	39.8	176.8	4.4	16 (89)	.12 (84)	3.31 (33)	76% (51)	14% (129)	0.99 (72)
ILL Defense	12	51% (75)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.15 (78)	3.27 (104)	73% (68)	9% (100)	0.89 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEB Defense	12	43% (8)	37% (18)	-	-	-	-	.03 (16)	3.15 (81)	73% (70)	12% (22)	0.77 (3)
ILL Offense	12	45% (103)	44% (56)	33	125.1	3.8	12 (116)	.07 (108)	3.31 (32)	67% (109)	12% (98)	0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEB Offense	12	36% (129)	34% (125)	11.3	21.8	135.9	6.3	12	10 (120)	16 (121)	.24 (85)	1.9 (7)	34% (100)	25% (118)	.28 (84)	7% (110)	2.4 (5)
ILL Defense	12	49% (69)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.28 (76)	1.5 (21)	31% (78)	34% (114)	.3 (63)	6% (62)	1.8 (7)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEB Defense	12	56% (126)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.2 (31)	1.5 (35)	35% (25)	26% (20)	.27 (44)	8% (17)	2.1 (83)
ILL Offense	12	53% (35)	48% (14)	21.8	34.5	265.9	7.7	12.2	23 (51)	13 (97)	.37 (35)	1.5 (108)	28% (14)	33% (48)	.36 (63)	9% (130)	1.9 (108)

Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 1.61 #53
Nebraska's Offense Rating: 10.32 #121
Nebraska's Defense Rating: 5.24 #28
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24% #27
Nebraska's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Nebraska's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #65
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.0 #123
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nebraska: 1.61 Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nebraska: 0.1 Illinois: -2.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.6
Defense: 18.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Nebraska's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Nebraska 23
Illinois 23

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Illinois 25
Nebraska 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Nebraska 23
Illinois 22

Total Points: 45

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/20	Nebraska	24	Illinois	31	Nebraska -9.5	Illinois	41.5	Over
2023	10/06	Illinois	7	Nebraska	20	Illinois -3.5	Nebraska	43.0	Under
2022	10/29	Nebraska	9	Illinois	26	Illinois -7.5	Illinois	50.5	Under
2021	08/28	Illinois	30	Nebraska	22	Nebraska -6.5	Illinois	52.0	Push
2020	11/21	Nebraska	23	Illinois	41	Nebraska -17.0	Illinois	61.0	Over
2019	09/21	Illinois	38	Nebraska	42	Nebraska -13	Illinois	62.5	Over
2018	11/10	Nebraska	54	Illinois	35	Nebraska -17	Nebraska	71.0	Over
2017	09/29	Illinois	6	Nebraska	28	Nebraska -6.5	Nebraska	47.5	Under
2016	10/01	Nebraska	31	Illinois	16	Nebraska -21.5	Illinois	53.0	Under
2015	10/03	Illinois	14	Nebraska	13	Nebraska -7.5	Illinois	57.0	Under
2014	09/27	Nebraska	45	Illinois	14	Nebraska -19	Nebraska	0
2013	10/05	Nebraska	39	Illinois	19	Nebraska -10.5	Nebraska	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	5	7	4 Overs
Nebraska	7	5	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	6 - 6	3 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 6	6 - 6	2 - 3	4 - 3

(#53) NEB at (#63) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEB	ILL
Power RatePwr	#53	#63
SP+SP+	#65	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#98	#72
OffenseOff	#125	#70
DefenseDef	#40	#67
Spec TeamsST	#9	#7
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#27	#63

Nebraska Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Nebraska on Offense


CategoryCat	NEB Off	ILL Def
Perf GradePerf	#125	#67
SuccessSuc	#111	#102
ExplosiveExp	#70	#14
PPAPPA	#105	#85
PowerPwr	#121	#104
SP+SP+	#123	#49
Pts POPPO	#104	#96
HavocHav	#130	#87

Nebraska Run Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#128	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#84	#87
Run ExplRExp	#72	#22
PPAExp	#84	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#33	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#15	#83
TackleTak	-	#28

Nebraska Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#125	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#7	#21
PPAExp	#85	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#76	#70
F7 HavocF7	#129	#100
DB HavocDB	#110	#62

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NEB Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#40
SuccessSuc	#30	#22
ExplosiveExp	#113	#17
PPAPPA	#66	#18
PowerPwr	#47	#28
SP+SP+	#90	#8
Pts POPPO	#71	#16
HavocHav	#124	#12

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NEB Def
Run GameRun	#124	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#18
Run ExplRExp	#125	#3
PPAExp	#108	#16
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#122
TackleTak	-	#15

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	NEB Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#31
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#35
PPAExp	#35	#31
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#91
F7 HavocF7	#98	#22
DB HavocDB	#130	#17

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

NEB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 51° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Illinois -3.5 (43.0)
Nebraska won at Illinois this year (20-7)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Nebraska last year (31-24)
Nebraska beat Illinois in 2023 (20-7)
Illinois beat Nebraska in 2022 (26-9)

NEB's OC Marcus Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Heinrich Haarberg	77	157	49%	967	7	7	6.2
Chubba Purdy	31	57	54%	382	2	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Heinrich Haarberg	120	477	5	4.0	72
Anthony Grant	104	413	3	4.0	34
Emmett Johnson	90	411	2	4.6	29
Gabe Ervin	38	196	1	5.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Billy Kemp (Tr)	35	310	1	8.9	34
Thomas Fidone Jr.	25	260	4	10.4	29
Jaylen Lloyd	6	237	3	39.5	73
Alex Bullock	15	221	1	14.7	34

View Nebraska's Full Roster

NEB's DC Tony White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	0	8
Javin Wright	51	2	1	0	2
Omar Brown	51	3	0	0	3
John Bullock	50	3	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimari Butler	34	9	6	1	2
Luke Reimer	48	8	5	5	0
Nash Hutmacher	40	8	5	4	2
Cameron Lenhardt	16	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Tommi Hill	26	1	0	9
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	8
Malcolm Hartzog	40	2	0	6

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5