Toledo at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview
Toledo logo Toledo Rockets at Illinois Fighting IlliniIllinois logo
Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Illinois -7 (45.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Illinois 30 - Toledo: 28

 
Rockets (11 - 3) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jason Candle (56 - 33)
Avg Score : 28 - 23 (22 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#4)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Toledo -4.5   (SP+ TOL -6.5)
Projected Score: TOL: 26 - ILL: 21 (51)
ILL Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TOL Travel: 264 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Toledo's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Toledo at Illinois+7.045.5L 28 - 30OY
Sat 9/9 Toledo vs Texas Southern-40.561.0W 71 - 3OY
Sat 9/16 Toledo vs San José State-9.056.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Toledo vs Western Michigan-21.552.5W 49 - 31ON
Sat 9/30 Toledo vs Northern Illinois-13.048.0W 35 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Toledo at Massachusetts-19.055.5W 41 - 24ON
Sat 10/14 Toledo at Ball State-17.548.5W 13 - 6UN
Sat 10/21 Toledo at Miami (OH)-2.046.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31 Toledo vs Buffalo-14.047.0W 31 - 13UY
Wed 11/8 Toledo vs Eastern Michigan-19.545.5W 49 - 23OY
Tue 11/14 Toledo at Bowling Green-9.548.5W 32 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Toledo at Central Michigan-12.554.5W 32 - 17UY
Sat 12/2 Toledo vs Miami (OH)-8.546.0L 14 - 23UN
Sat 12/30 Toledo vs Wyoming+4.543.5L 15 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28ON
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34UN
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44ON
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26OY
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL.1943%28.344%317843%2254.23.0734%23.236%34%3.9755.41.91.6
ILL.1544%28.343%3.0716845%2093.37-.0233%21.730%36%2.259.11.22.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1428.322.242.8%4.231.9224031782254.355%44%44%43%16%.19
ILL Defense1321.717.632.8%2.22.5 - - - - - 45%53%30%36%22%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1423.221.334.2%3.971.6 - - - - - 51%48%36%34%18%.07
ILL Offense1328.33243.8%3.371.221377168209454%46%43%45%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1429:312241%59%6.755.41.91.65.52.2229.6
Illinois1332:4121.238%48%6.459.11.22.56.12.1130.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1455%44%41.4177.84.323.14376%10%0.92
ILL Defense1345%30% - - - - -.032.6450%11%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1451%36% - - - - .13.0483%10%1.08
ILL Offense1354%43%41.9167.7418.083.0772%10%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1444%43%17.631.4224.97.212.83115.351.732%30%.325%2.2
ILL Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 24.071.436%23%.0511%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1448%34% - - - - - - 12.081.637%23%.098%2
ILL Offense1346%45%2130.2209.46.910155.251.430%32%.242%1.7

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Toledo's Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Toledo's Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
2023 Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Toledo's 2023 Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90
Toledo's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 500
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 7.27   Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 4.0   Illinois: -2.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.3

Toledo's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 26
Illinois 21

Projected Total Points: 51
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/02Illinois30Toledo28IllinoisIllinois -7Toledo45.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois101 Overs
Toledo010 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#29) Toledo Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 7.27 #29
Offense Rating: 21.47 #30
Defense Rating: 4.60 #24
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.0 #51
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #35
Talent Rating: 536.00 #82
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 11.10 - 2.90

Team Profile






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Toledo     Ratings Matchup     Illinois
Power #29
#63
Off #30
#47
Def #24
#104
Talent #82
#62
SP+ #51
#75
SP+ Off #65
#90
SP+ Def #35
#49

Rematch from Week 1
Illinois -7.0 (45.5)
Illinois won vs Toledo this year (30-28)

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Toledo in 2023 (30-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 84° - Wind: 10 mph


Team Information
Injuries: TOL | ILL
Depth Chart: TOL | ILL
Rosters: TOL | ILL
(#63) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49
Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Team Profile






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Toledo's OC Mike Hallett
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dequan Finn234354%307327.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquez Stuart6123023.826
Peny Boone3420826.159
Dequan Finn216623.139
Jerjuan Newton1101.01
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerjuan Newton649491114.864
Anthony Torres27362813.478
Jacquez Stuart15170011.334
Justin Stephens117017.017

View Toledo's Full Roster
Toledo's DC Vince Kehres
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maxen Hook1082004
Daniel Bolden918320
Jackson Barrow649202
Cavon Butler456310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Andre Ragin428551
Darius Alexander358425
Martez Poynter257400
Daniel Bolden918320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Alexander358425
Maxen Hook1082004
Jackson Barrow649202

Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Love III8337224.522
Patrick Bryant51402.87
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Patrick Bryant539781018.564
Eian Pugh53707.414
Reggie Love III72103.06
Owen Anderson21316.511

View Illinois's Full Roster
Illinois's DC Aaron Henry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Ryan Meed501011
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Tahveon Nicholson323001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Te-Rah Edwards385370
Dylan Davis192110
Christian Lorenzo171131
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Seth Coleman537353
Zachary Tobe172003
Ryan Meed501011