Penn State at Illinois Game Matchup

Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -14 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Penn State 30 - Illinois: 13 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Penn State -22 (SP+ PSU -28.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 35 - ILL: 13 (49)
PSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
PSU Travel: 548 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	.26	43%	33.1	41%	3.03	181	46%	253	4.61	.08	38%	16.5	43%	36%	3.39	48.3	1.1	2.7
ILL	.15	44%	28.3	43%	3.07	168	45%	209	3.37	-.02	33%	21.7	30%	36%	2.2	59.1	1.2	2.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	33.1	34	43.4%	4.61	1.1	21	434	181	253	4.8	51%	49%	41%	46%	13%	.26
ILL Defense	13	21.7	17.6	32.8%	2.2	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	30%	36%	22%	-.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	16.5	18	38.5%	3.39	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	43%	36%	25%	.08
ILL Offense	13	28.3	32	43.8%	3.37	1.2	21	377	168	209	4	54%	46%	43%	45%	13%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	30:33	21.2	38%	70%	5.3	48.3	1.1	2.7	7.8	3.2	2	30.1
Illinois	13	32:41	21.2	38%	48%	6.4	59.1	1.2	2.5	6.1	2.1	1	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	51%	41%	37.6	181.1	4.8	28	.18	3.03	75%	8%	1.17
ILL Defense	13	45%	30%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.64	50%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	41%	43%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.66	72%	15%	0.99
ILL Offense	13	54%	43%	41.9	167.7	4	18	.08	3.07	72%	10%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	49%	46%	20.8	32.5	252.5	7.8	12.2	29	7	.34	1.6	30%	33%	.42	5%	2.1
ILL Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	24	.07	1.4	36%	23%	.05	11%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.06	1.5	37%	29%	.29	11%	2.1
ILL Offense	13	46%	45%	21	30.2	209.4	6.9	10	15	5	.25	1.4	30%	32%	.24	2%	1.7

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44 Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0 Illinois: -2.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 35
Illinois 13

Projected Total Points: 49

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 28.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Penn State	21	Illinois	7	Penn State	Penn State -19.5	Illinois	48.0	Under
2023	09/16	Illinois	13	Penn State	30	Penn State	Penn State -14	Penn State	47.5	Under
2021	10/23	Penn State	18	Illinois	20	Illinois	Penn State -24.5	Illinois	46.0	Under
2020	12/19	Penn State	56	Illinois	21	Penn State	Penn State -16	Penn State	53.5	Over
2018	09/21	Illinois	24	Penn State	63	Penn State	Penn State -26.5	Penn State	61.0	Over
2015	10/31	Penn State	39	Illinois	0	Penn State	Penn State -4	Penn State	44.5	Under
2014	11/22	Illinois	16	Penn State	14	Illinois	Penn State -4.5	Illinois	0
2013	11/02	Penn State	24	Illinois	17	Penn State	Penn State -10	Illinois	0
2012	09/29	Illinois	7	Penn State	35	Penn State
2011	10/29	Penn State	10	Illinois	7	Penn State
2010	10/09	Penn State	13	Illinois	33	Illinois
2009	10/03	Illinois	17	Penn State	35	Penn State
2008	09/27	Penn State	38	Illinois	24	Penn State
2007	09/29	Illinois	27	Penn State	20	Illinois
2006	10/21	Penn State	26	Illinois	12	Penn State
2005	10/22	Illinois	10	Penn State	63	Penn State
2002	11/02	Penn State	18	Illinois	7	Penn State
2001	11/10	Illinois	33	Penn State	28	Illinois
2000	10/20	Penn State	39	Illinois	25	Penn State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	5	4	2 Overs
Penn State	14	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 7	3 - 5	2 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	7 - 12	5 - 3	2 - 1	3 - 2

(#5) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4
Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70

Team Profile

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Penn State Ratings Matchup Illinois

Power #5

#63

Off #31

#47

Def #2

#104

Talent #11

#62

SP+ #4

#75

SP+ Off #26

#90

SP+ Def #4

#49

Rematch from Week 3
Penn State 14.0 (47.5)
Penn State won at Illinois this year (30-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Illinois last year (21-7)
Penn State beat Illinois in 2023 (30-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | ILL
Depth Chart: PSU | ILL
Rosters: PSU | ILL

(#63) Illinois Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49
Talent Rating: 658.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80

Team Profile

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Penn State's OC Mike Yurcich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Warren	3	6	50%	35	1	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
London Montgomery	71	359	2	5.1	48
Tyler Warren	26	218	4	8.4	48
Cristian Driver	2	9	0	4.5	5
Alex Bacchetta	1	-19	0	-19.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Dante Cephas (Tr)	15	184	0	12.3	35
Malick Meiga	7	117	0	16.7	46

View Penn State's Full Roster

Penn State's DC Manny Diaz

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dvon Ellies	31	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Tyler Elsdon	23	0	0	0	2

Illinois's OC Barry Lunney Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	83	372	2	4.5	22
Patrick Bryant	5	14	0	2.8	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Patrick Bryant	53	978	10	18.5	64
Eian Pugh	5	37	0	7.4	14
Reggie Love III	7	21	0	3.0	6
Owen Anderson	2	13	1	6.5	11

View Illinois's Full Roster

Illinois's DC Aaron Henry

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Seth Coleman	53	7	3	5	3
Ryan Meed	50	1	0	1	1
Te-Rah Edwards	38	5	3	7	0
Tahveon Nicholson	32	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Seth Coleman	53	7	3	5	3
Te-Rah Edwards	38	5	3	7	0
Dylan Davis	19	2	1	1	0
Christian Lorenzo	17	1	1	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Seth Coleman	53	7	3	5	3
Zachary Tobe	17	2	0	0	3
Ryan Meed	50	1	0	1	1