Penn State at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo (#2)Penn State Nittany Lions at Illinois Fighting Illini(#9)Illinois logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -14 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Penn State 30 - Illinois: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (34 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Penn State -22  (SP+ PSU -28.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 35 - ILL: 13 (47)
PSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
PSU Travel: 548 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 29 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28ON
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34UN
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44ON
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26OY
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)36.249% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)13.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
ILL#66 (.2)45% (30)24.544% (56)3.31 (32)12548% (14)2663.9 (71)#85 (.2)44% (102)29.445% (87)45% (110)4.09 (96)62.41.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
ILL#31 (.25)45% (45)45% (51)3.14 (49)14044% (44)1984.23 (39)#76 (.18)46% (115)50% (127)43% (90)3.48 (37)390.91.5



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1336.233.546.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
ILL Defense1229.43044.4%4.091.3 - - - - - 51%49%45%45%15%.2
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1313.515.333.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
ILL Offense1224.526.445.5%3.91.9203911252663.845%53%44%48%20%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Illinois1228:2420.337%54%6.662.41.91.34.81.9226
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
ILL Defense1251% (75)45% (87) - - - - .15 (78)3.27 (104)73% (68)9% (100)0.89 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
ILL Offense1245% (103)44% (56)33125.13.812 (116).07 (108)3.31 (32)67% (109)12% (98)0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
ILL Defense1249% (69)45% (110) - - - - - - 7 (111).28 (76)1.5 (21)31% (78)34% (114).3 (63)6% (62)1.8 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
ILL Offense1253% (35)48% (14)21.834.5265.97.712.223 (51)13 (97).37 (35)1.5 (108)28% (14)33% (48).36 (63)9% (130)1.9 (108)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Illinois: -2.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055  #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25  #104
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6  #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.3

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 35
Illinois 13

Total Points: 47

Based on Last 4 Games
Penn State 22
Illinois 19

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
Penn State 32
Illinois 20

Total Points: 52
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/28Penn State21Illinois7Penn State -19.5Illinois48.0Under
202309/16Illinois13Penn State30Penn State -14Penn State47.5Under
202110/23Penn State18Illinois20Penn State -24.5Illinois46.0Under
202012/19Penn State56Illinois21Penn State -16Penn State53.5Over
201809/21Illinois24Penn State63Penn State -26.5Penn State61.0Over
201510/31Penn State39Illinois0Penn State -4Penn State44.5Under
201411/22Illinois16Penn State14Penn State -4.5Illinois0
201311/02Penn State24Illinois17Penn State -10Illinois0
201209/29Illinois7Penn State35
201110/29Penn State10Illinois7
201010/09Penn State13Illinois33
200910/03Illinois17Penn State35
200809/27Penn State38Illinois24
200709/29Illinois27Penn State20
200610/21Penn State26Illinois12
200510/22Illinois10Penn State63
200211/02Penn State18Illinois7
200111/10Illinois33Penn State28
200010/20Penn State39Illinois25
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois542 Overs
Penn State1444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 73 - 52 - 31 - 2
Road Teams7 - 125 - 32 - 13 - 2

(#5) PSU at (#63) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUILL
Power RatePwr #5 #63
SP+SP+ #4 #75
Perf GradeGrade #6 #72
OffenseOff #27 #70
DefenseDef #4 #67
Spec TeamsST #8 #7
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #63
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCat
PSU OffILL Def
Perf GradePerf #27 #67
SuccessSuc #25 #102
ExplosiveExp #124 #14
PPAPPA #40 #85
PowerPwr #31 #104
SP+SP+ #26 #49
Pts POPPO #5 #96
HavocHav #4 #87
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffILL Def
Run GameRun #27 #40
Run SuccessRSuc #17 #87
Run ExplRExp #123 #22
PPAExp #46 #78
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #104
Stuff RateStuff #2 #83
TackleTak -  #28
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #34 #110
Pass SuccessPSuc #53 #110
Pass ExplPExl #115 #21
PPAExp #62 #76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #70
F7 HavocF7 #8 #100
DB HavocDB #7 #62
Illinois on Offense
CategoryCatILL OffPSU Def
Perf GradePerf #70 #4
SuccessSuc #30 #3
ExplosiveExp #113 #101
PPAPPA #66 #8
PowerPwr #47 #2
SP+SP+ #90 #4
Pts POPPO #71 #15
HavocHav #124 #2
Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #124 #6
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #3
Run ExplRExp #125 #46
PPAExp #108 #7
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #2
Stuff RateStuff #23 #3
TackleTak -  #34
Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCatILL OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #50 #19
Pass SuccessPSuc #14 #10
Pass ExplPExl #108 #94
PPAExp #35 #25
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #1
F7 HavocF7 #98 #1
DB HavocDB #130 #86
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 78° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Penn State 14.0 (47.5)
Penn State won at Illinois this year (30-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Illinois last year (21-7)
Penn State beat Illinois in 2023 (30-13)

  
PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)17527065%188313107.0
John Paddock (Tr)8514260%1294939.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Love III11656744.961
Kaden Feagin9543824.625
Luke Altmyer (Tr)9428233.072
Joshua McCray4315623.614
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Williams821055512.967
Casey Washington49670413.780
Patrick Bryant43560713.046
Tip Reiman19203310.742

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Rosiek828123
Miles Scott630003
Xavier Scott5700011
Jer'Zhan Newton529892
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jer'Zhan Newton529892
Seth Coleman509623
Gabe Jacas314351
Keith Randolph Jr.494241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott5700011
Tahveon Nicholson362006
Zachary Tobe250005