Illinois at Iowa - 2023 Matchup Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini at Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Iowa -2.5 (33.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa 15 - Illinois: 13 (Big Ten)

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (27 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IOWA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Iowa -8 (SP+ IOWA -11)
Projected Score: ILL: 17 - IOWA: 25 (43)
IOWA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
ILL Travel: 204 miles

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ILL Players
IOWA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL	.15	44%	29.4	43%	3.07	168	45%	209	3.37	-.02	33%	23.6	30%	36%	2.2	59.1	1.2	2.5
IOWA		36%	29.3	38%	2.45	95	35%	157	2.76	-.05	34%	16.1	38%	32%	2.75	32.3	1.3	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IOWA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Offense	13	29.4	26.6	43.8%	3.37	1.2	21	377	168	209	4	54%	46%	43%	45%	13%	.15
IOWA Defense	13	16.1	13.7	34.4%	2.75	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	38%	32%	17%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ILL Defense	13	23.6	35.6	32.8%	2.2	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	30%	36%	22%	-.02
IOWA Offense	13	29.3	28.3	35.8%	2.76	1.3	14	252	95	157	2.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	18%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Illinois	13	32:41	21.2	38%	48%	6.4	59.1	1.2	2.5	6.1	2.1	1	30.1
Iowa	13	28:16	13.8	28%	33%	4.1	32.3	1.3	2.2	6.1	2.6	4	31.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Offense	13	54%	43%	41.9	167.7	4	18	.08	3.07	72%	10%	0.85
IOWA Defense	13	49%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.57	74%	11%	0.76

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ILL Defense	13	45%	30%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.64	50%	11%	1.1
IOWA Offense	13	49%	38%	32.5	94.9	2.9	12	-.05	2.45	63%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Offense	13	46%	45%	21	30.2	209.4	6.9	10	15	5	.25	1.4	30%	32%	.24	2%	1.7
IOWA Defense	13	49%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	-.01	1.4	34%	22%	-.02	6%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ILL Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	24	.07	1.4	36%	23%	.05	11%	2
IOWA Offense	13	51%	35%	14.8	26.8	156.7	5.8	10.6	7	7	.06	1.5	36%	22%	.08	5%	2

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: -0.29 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 630.95 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -0.29 Iowa: 6.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Illinois: -2.6 Iowa: 8.1

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 692.62 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.6
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.6

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 25
Illinois 17

Projected Total Points: 43

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 12
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/18	Iowa	15	Illinois	13	Iowa -2.5	Illinois	33.5	Under
2022	10/08	Illinois	9	Iowa	6	Illinois -3.5	Iowa	36.5	Under
2021	11/20	Iowa	33	Illinois	23	Iowa -12	Illinois	37.5	Over
2020	12/05	Illinois	21	Iowa	35	Iowa -13.5	Iowa	53.0	Over
2019	11/23	Iowa	19	Illinois	10	Iowa -15	Illinois	48.5	Under
2018	11/17	Illinois	0	Iowa	63	Iowa -15.5	Iowa	60.0	Over
2017	10/07	Iowa	45	Illinois	16	Iowa -16	Iowa	42.5	Over
2016	11/19	Illinois	0	Iowa	28	Iowa -10	Iowa	45.5	Under
2015	10/10	Iowa	29	Illinois	20	Iowa -10	Illinois	47.0	Over
2014	11/15	Illinois	14	Iowa	30	Iowa -3	Iowa	0
2008	11/01	Illinois	27	Iowa	24
2007	10/13	Iowa	10	Illinois	6
2006	09/23	Illinois	7	Iowa	24
2005	10/01	Iowa	35	Illinois	7
2004	10/30	Illinois	13	Iowa	23
2003	11/01	Iowa	41	Illinois	10
2000	10/13	Illinois	31	Iowa	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa	14	6	5 Overs
Illinois	3	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 6	1 - 9	1 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	6 - 11	9 - 1	4 - 0	5 - 1

(#63) ILL at (#61) IOWA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ILL	IOWA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#63	#61
SP+SP+	#75	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#72	#53
OffenseOff	#70	#134
DefenseDef	#67	#4
Spec TeamsST	#7	#5
TalentTal	#63	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	#63	#38

Illinois Injury Report

Iowa Injury Report

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IOWA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#47	#3
SP+SP+	#90	#2
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#124	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#3

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#118	#42
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa on Offense


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	ILL Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#67
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#133	#104
SP+SP+	#127	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa Run Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#134	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#28

Iowa Pass Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Iowa -2.5 (33.5)
Iowa won vs Illinois this year (15-13)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Illinois in 2023 (15-13)

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5

IOWA's OC Brian Ferentz (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deacon Hill (Tr)	122	251	49%	1152	5	8	4.6
Cade McNamara (Tr)	46	90	51%	505	4	3	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Leshon Williams	170	821	1	4.8	82
Kaleb Johnson	117	463	3	4.0	67
Jaziun Patterson	58	206	2	3.6	59
Kamari Moulton	27	93	2	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erick All (Tr)	21	299	3	14.2	34
Nico Ragaini	31	255	0	8.2	29
Kaleb Brown	22	215	1	9.8	31
Addison Ostrenga	31	192	2	6.2	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	171	5	2	3	3
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Quinn Schulte	65	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Yahya Black	50	5	4	2	4
Logan Lee	55	6	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermari Harris	42	1	0	0	8
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5