Iowa at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -4.5 (30.5) (-205) Open: -6.0
Iowa 10 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (21 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW 2nd straight Home Game
IOWA coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa -5 (SP+ IOWA -9.5)
Projected Score: IOWA: 21 - NW: 16 (45)
IOWA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
IOWA Travel: 201 miles

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
IOWA Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA		36%	27.7	38%	2.45	95	35%	157	2.76	-.05	34%	17.8	38%	32%	2.75	32.3	1.3	2.2
NW	.01	37%	17.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	26.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Offense	13	27.7	20.8	35.8%	2.76	1.3	14	252	95	157	2.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	18%
NW Defense	12	26.3	26.3	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Defense	13	17.8	22.8	34.4%	2.75	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	38%	32%	17%	-.05
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.8	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa	13	28:16	13.8	28%	33%	4.1	32.3	1.3	2.2	6.1	2.6	4	31.9
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense	13	49%	38%	32.5	94.9	2.9	12	-.05	2.45	63%	13%	0.84
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense	13	49%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.57	74%	11%	0.76
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense	13	51%	35%	14.8	26.8	156.7	5.8	10.6	7	7	.06	1.5	36%	22%	.08	5%	2
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense	13	49%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	-.01	1.4	34%	22%	-.02	6%	1.6
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: -0.08 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 838.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: -0.08 Northwestern: -0.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 8.1 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.98 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 21
Northwestern 16

Projected Total Points: 45

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Iowa	40	Northwestern	14	Iowa	Iowa -16.5	Iowa	38.5	Over
2023	11/04	Northwestern	7	Iowa	10	Iowa	Iowa -4.5	Northwestern	30.5	Under
2022	10/29	Iowa	33	Northwestern	13	Iowa	Iowa -11.5	Iowa	37.0	Over
2021	11/06	Northwestern	12	Iowa	17	Iowa	Iowa -11.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2020	10/31	Iowa	20	Northwestern	21	Northwestern	Iowa -3.0	Northwestern	0
2019	10/26	Northwestern	0	Iowa	20	Iowa	Iowa -7.5	Iowa	35.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa	10	Northwestern	14	Northwestern	Iowa -10	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2017	10/21	Northwestern	17	Iowa	10	Northwestern	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	45.5	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa	31	Northwestern	38	Northwestern	Iowa -12	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2015	10/17	Northwestern	10	Iowa	40	Iowa	Iowa -2.5	Iowa	41.0	Over
2014	11/01	Iowa	48	Northwestern	7	Iowa	Iowa -6	Iowa	0
2013	10/26	Iowa	17	Northwestern	10	Iowa	Iowa -3	Iowa	0
2012	10/27	Northwestern	28	Iowa	17	Northwestern
2011	10/15	Iowa	41	Northwestern	31	Iowa
2010	11/13	Northwestern	21	Iowa	17	Northwestern
2009	11/07	Iowa	10	Northwestern	17	Northwestern
2008	09/27	Iowa	17	Northwestern	22	Northwestern
2007	11/03	Northwestern	17	Iowa	28	Iowa
2006	11/04	Iowa	7	Northwestern	21	Northwestern
2005	11/05	Northwestern	28	Iowa	27	Northwestern
2002	11/09	Iowa	62	Northwestern	10	Iowa
2001	11/10	Northwestern	16	Iowa	59	Iowa
2000	11/10	Iowa	27	Northwestern	17	Iowa

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	10	6	4 Overs
Iowa	13	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#61) Iowa Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.08 #61
Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2
Talent Rating: 838.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40

Team Profile

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Iowa Ratings Matchup Northwestern

Power #61

#66

Off #133

#79

Def #3

#66

Talent #22

#54

SP+ #36

#71

SP+ Off #127

#104

SP+ Def #2

#30

Rematch from Week 10
Iowa 4.5 (30.5)
Iowa won at Northwestern this year (10-7)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Northwestern last year (40-14)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2023 (10-7)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2022 (33-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: IOWA | NW
Depth Chart: IOWA | NW
Rosters: IOWA | NW

(#66) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.98 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90

Team Profile

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Iowa's OC Brian Ferentz

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaleb Johnson	240	1537	21	6.4	75
Hayden Large	2	2	0	1.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diante Vines	36	393	2	10.9	40
Luke Lachey	28	231	0	8.3	28
Kaleb Johnson	22	188	2	8.5	72
Hayden Large	3	18	0	6.0	10

View Iowa's Full Roster

Iowa's DC Phil Parker

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Quinn Schulte	62	0	0	0	3
Sebastian Castro	57	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deontae Craig	43	7	3	6	1
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Anterio Thompson	34	2	1	5	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Jermari Harris	27	1	0	0	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5

Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sullivan	38	53	72%	474	3	3	8.9
Ryan Hilinski	9	15	60%	121	0	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Brendan Sullivan	47	151	4	3.2	30
Jacob Gill	5	13	0	2.6	9
A.J. Henning (Tr)	5	8	0	1.6	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning (Tr)	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Jacob Gill	35	411	2	11.7	59
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26

View Northwestern's Full Roster

Northwestern's DC Vacant

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Nigel Williams	53	0	0	0	2
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Jaheem Joseph	42	1	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Pearson	21	4	2	0	0
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4
Grayson Metz	32	2	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4