Iowa at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 4th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -4.5 (30.5) (-205) Open: -6.0
Iowa 10 - Northwestern: 7 (Big Ten)

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 15 - 15 (12 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW 2nd straight Home Game
IOWA coming off BYE
Our Line: Iowa -5 (SP+ IOWA -9.5)
Projected Score: IOWA: 20 - NW: 15 (35)
IOWA Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
IOWA Travel: 201 miles

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
IOWA Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA	#133 (-.04)	33% (133)	15.4	33% (131)	2.47 (132)	109	34% (124)	114	2.86 (126)	#2 (-.01)	34% (5)	14.8	35% (11)	34% (6)	2.65 (4)	28	1.4	1.1
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA	#100 (.14)	42% (72)		44% (63)	2.92 (89)	185	40% (94)	121	3.77 (84)	#30 (.11)	42% (72)		46% (97)	39% (51)	3.37 (27)	26.3	0.8	1.8
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Offense	14	15.4	12	32.9%	2.86	1.4	12	223	109	114	3.4	56%	43%	33%	34%	19%	-.04
NW Defense	13	22.5	24	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Defense	14	14.8	15	34.2%	2.65	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	35%	34%	16%	-.01
NW Offense	13	22.1	27.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa	14	26:29	12.1	31%	50%	3.3	28	1.4	1.1	4.9	1.9	2	31.2
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense	14	56% (23)	33% (131)	32.1	108.7	3.4	11 (123)	-.08 (133)	2.47 (132)	66% (113)	12% (105)	0.82 (129)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense	14	45% (17)	35% (11)	-	-	-	-	-.05 (5)	2.8 (21)	71% (53)	9% (88)	0.72 (1)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense	14	43% (113)	34% (124)	11.5	23.1	114.4	5	9.9	9 (126)	9 (40)	.08 (125)	1.4 (124)	34% (99)	21% (131)	.05 (133)	7% (112)	1.7 (128)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense	14	53% (113)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.08 (5)	1.4 (8)	37% (8)	25% (13)	.12 (3)	7% (36)	1.7 (4)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: -0.08 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: -0.08 Northwestern: -0.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 8.1 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.98 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 12
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 20
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 35

Based on Last 4 Games
Iowa 22
Northwestern 15

Total Points: 37

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 20
Iowa 19

Total Points: 39

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/26	Iowa	40	Northwestern	14	Iowa -16.5	Iowa	38.5	Over
2023	11/04	Northwestern	7	Iowa	10	Iowa -4.5	Northwestern	30.5	Under
2022	10/29	Iowa	33	Northwestern	13	Iowa -11.5	Iowa	37.0	Over
2021	11/06	Northwestern	12	Iowa	17	Iowa -11.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2020	10/31	Iowa	20	Northwestern	21	Iowa -3.0	Northwestern	0
2019	10/26	Northwestern	0	Iowa	20	Iowa -7.5	Iowa	35.5	Under
2018	11/10	Iowa	10	Northwestern	14	Iowa -10	Northwestern	46.5	Under
2017	10/21	Northwestern	17	Iowa	10	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	45.5	Under
2016	10/01	Iowa	31	Northwestern	38	Iowa -12	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2015	10/17	Northwestern	10	Iowa	40	Iowa -2.5	Iowa	41.0	Over
2014	11/01	Iowa	48	Northwestern	7	Iowa -6	Iowa	0
2013	10/26	Iowa	17	Northwestern	10	Iowa -3	Iowa	0
2012	10/27	Northwestern	28	Iowa	17
2011	10/15	Iowa	41	Northwestern	31
2010	11/13	Northwestern	21	Iowa	17
2009	11/07	Iowa	10	Northwestern	17
2008	09/27	Iowa	17	Northwestern	22
2007	11/03	Northwestern	17	Iowa	28
2006	11/04	Iowa	7	Northwestern	21
2005	11/05	Northwestern	28	Iowa	27
2002	11/09	Iowa	62	Northwestern	10
2001	11/10	Northwestern	16	Iowa	59
2000	11/10	Iowa	27	Northwestern	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	10	6	4 Overs
Iowa	13	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 12	7 - 5	5 - 3	2 - 2
Road Teams	12 - 11	5 - 7	2 - 2	3 - 5

(#61) IOWA at (#66) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	IOWA	NW
Power RatePwr	#61	#66
SP+SP+	#36	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#53	#82
OffenseOff	#134	#109
DefenseDef	#4	#34
Spec TeamsST	#5	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#38	#49

Iowa Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Iowa on Offense


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Perf GradePerf	#134	#34
SuccessSuc	#133	#83
ExplosiveExp	#133	#6
PPAPPA	#133	#33
PowerPwr	#133	#66
SP+SP+	#127	#30
Pts POPPO	#126	#56
HavocHav	#113	#115

Iowa Run Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#134	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#131	#73
Run ExplRExp	#129	#31
PPAExp	#133	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	#132	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#119	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Iowa Pass Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#124	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#124	#9
PPAExp	#125	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#98	#122
F7 HavocF7	#105	#105
DB HavocDB	#112	#101

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Perf GradePerf	#109	#4
SuccessSuc	#110	#5
ExplosiveExp	#108	#2
PPAPPA	#113	#2
PowerPwr	#79	#3
SP+SP+	#104	#2
Pts POPPO	#48	#4
HavocHav	#67	#64

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#126	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#11
Run ExplRExp	#128	#1
PPAExp	#120	#5
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#21
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#89
TackleTak	-	#3

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#8
PPAExp	#100	#5
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#42
F7 HavocF7	#88	#88
DB HavocDB	#23	#36

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wrigley Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 10
Iowa 4.5 (30.5)
Iowa won at Northwestern this year (10-7)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Northwestern last year (40-14)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2023 (10-7)
Iowa beat Northwestern in 2022 (33-13)

IOWA's OC Brian Ferentz (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deacon Hill (Tr)	122	251	49%	1152	5	8	4.6
Cade McNamara (Tr)	46	90	51%	505	4	3	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Leshon Williams	170	821	1	4.8	82
Kaleb Johnson	117	463	3	4.0	67
Jaziun Patterson	58	206	2	3.6	59
Kamari Moulton	27	93	2	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erick All (Tr)	21	299	3	14.2	34
Nico Ragaini	31	255	0	8.2	29
Kaleb Brown	22	215	1	9.8	31
Addison Ostrenga	31	192	2	6.2	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	171	5	2	3	3
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Quinn Schulte	65	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Yahya Black	50	5	4	2	4
Logan Lee	55	6	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermari Harris	42	1	0	0	8
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4