Purdue at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Northwestern -2.5 (47.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Northwestern 23 - Purdue: 15 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (16 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 12.7 MPH
NW is playing their 5th straight game
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -6.5 (SP+ NW -6)
Projected Score: PUR: 21 - NW: 28 (49)
NW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 120 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Purdue vs Fresno State	-4.0	47.0	L 35 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/9	Purdue at Virginia Tech	+1.5	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Purdue vs Syracuse	+1.0	56.5	L 20 - 35	U	N
Fri 9/22	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Purdue vs Illinois	-1.0	54.0	W 44 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Purdue at Iowa	+2.5	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Purdue vs Ohio State	+17.5	53.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Purdue at Nebraska	-1.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/4	Purdue at Michigan	+32.5	52.5	L 13 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Purdue vs Minnesota	+1.5	48.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+2.5	47.5	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Purdue vs Indiana	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#86 (.16)	42% (60)	23.9	45% (51)	3.16 (60)	169	41% (78)	211	3.21 (112)	#74 (.19)	40% (44)	30.4	41% (45)	40% (52)	4.28 (112)	57.6	1.5	1.5
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	23.9	16	42.5%	3.21	1.5	20	380	169	211	4.4	51%	48%	45%	41%	18%	.16
NW Defense	13	22.5	24	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	30.4	26.4	40.2%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	40%	17%	.19
NW Offense	13	22.1	27.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	30:25	20.4	36%	39%	6	57.6	1.5	1.5	5.8	2.8	1	29.4
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	51% (55)	45% (51)	38.5	168.8	4.4	20 (61)	.15 (69)	3.16 (60)	54% (133)	12% (118)	0.98 (76)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	51% (80)	41% (45)	-	-	-	-	.08 (31)	3 (48)	68% (41)	11% (38)	0.97 (53)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	48% (81)	41% (78)	19.5	32.7	211.2	6.5	10.8	15 (96)	10 (56)	.22 (89)	1.5 (111)	31% (56)	30% (75)	.31 (75)	6% (71)	2.1 (58)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	49% (56)	40% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (102)	1.8 (121)	33% (50)	32% (93)	.38 (101)	6% (73)	2.2 (96)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.72 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -2.72 Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.4 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 28
Purdue 21

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 31
Purdue 19

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 27
Purdue 22

Total Points: 49

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Northwestern	19	Purdue	0	Northwestern -3	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2024	11/02	Purdue	20	Northwestern	26	Purdue -3	Northwestern	44.5	Over
2023	11/18	Northwestern	23	Purdue	15	Northwestern -2.5	Northwestern	47.5	Under
2022	11/19	Purdue	17	Northwestern	9	Purdue -17.5	Northwestern	44.5	Under
2021	11/20	Northwestern	14	Purdue	32	Purdue -11	Purdue	47.5	Under
2020	11/14	Purdue	20	Northwestern	27	Northwestern -3.5	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2019	11/09	Northwestern	22	Purdue	24	Purdue -0.0	Purdue	38.5	Over
2018	08/30	Purdue	27	Northwestern	31	Purdue -1	Northwestern	52.5	Over
2017	11/11	Northwestern	23	Purdue	13	Northwestern -6	Northwestern	49.5	Under
2016	11/12	Purdue	17	Northwestern	45	Northwestern -10.5	Northwestern	58.0	Over
2015	11/14	Northwestern	21	Purdue	14	Northwestern -13	Purdue	48.0	Under
2014	11/22	Purdue	14	Northwestern	38	Northwestern -2	Northwestern	0
2010	10/09	Northwestern	17	Purdue	20
2009	10/03	Purdue	21	Northwestern	27
2008	10/18	Northwestern	48	Purdue	26
2007	10/27	Purdue	35	Northwestern	17
2006	10/14	Northwestern	10	Purdue	31
2005	10/15	Purdue	29	Northwestern	34
2004	10/30	Northwestern	13	Purdue	10
2003	11/01	Purdue	34	Northwestern	14
2002	10/26	Northwestern	13	Purdue	42
2001	10/27	Purdue	32	Northwestern	27
2000	10/13	Northwestern	28	Purdue	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	13	9	4 Overs
Purdue	10	3	7 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 13	3 - 9	3 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	13 - 10	9 - 3	4 - 0	5 - 3

(#81) PUR at (#66) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#81	#66
SP+SP+	#90	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#115	#82
OffenseOff	#105	#109
DefenseDef	#114	#34
Spec TeamsST	#56	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#37	#49

Purdue Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#34
SuccessSuc	#60	#83
ExplosiveExp	#109	#6
PPAPPA	#86	#33
PowerPwr	#90	#66
SP+SP+	#89	#30
Pts POPPO	#112	#56
HavocHav	#106	#115

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#74	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#73
Run ExplRExp	#76	#31
PPAExp	#69	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#9
PPAExp	#89	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#122
F7 HavocF7	#118	#105
DB HavocDB	#71	#101

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#114
SuccessSuc	#110	#44
ExplosiveExp	#108	#103
PPAPPA	#113	#74
PowerPwr	#79	#83
SP+SP+	#104	#72
Pts POPPO	#48	#112
HavocHav	#67	#48

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#126	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#45
Run ExplRExp	#128	#53
PPAExp	#120	#31
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#50
TackleTak	-	#43

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#121
PPAExp	#100	#102
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#53
F7 HavocF7	#88	#38
DB HavocDB	#23	#73

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 51° - Wind: 13 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Northwestern -2.5 (47.5)
Northwestern won vs Purdue this year (23-15)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Purdue last year (26-20)
Northwestern beat Purdue in 2023 (23-15)
Purdue beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-9)

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card (Tr)	215	365	59%	2387	15	8	6.5
Ryan Browne	12	16	75%	104	0	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	172	807	6	4.7	65
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	113	716	8	6.3	62
Dylan Downing	48	211	1	4.4	25
Hudson Card (Tr)	93	203	5	2.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Burks	47	629	7	13.4	84
TJ Sheffield	32	381	2	11.9	43
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen	25	329	0	13.2	30
Garrett Miller	30	243	2	8.1	28

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	106	2	0	1	2
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	49	15	9	3	3
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
O.C. Brothers	20	6	3	1	3
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Marquis Wilson (Tr)	20	0	0	0	6
Cam Allen	30	1	0	0	6

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4