Purdue at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo Purdue Boilermakers at Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, November 18th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Northwestern -2.5 (47.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Northwestern 23 - Purdue: 15  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (16 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NW is playing their 5th straight game
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -6.5   (SP+ NW -6)

Projected Score: PUR: 21 - NW: 27 (48)
NW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 120 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Northwestern at Rutgers+5.039.0L 7 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Northwestern vs UTEP-1.040.0W 38 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Northwestern at Duke+17.048.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/23 Northwestern vs Minnesota+11.539.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 Northwestern vs Penn State+27.048.0L 13 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 Northwestern vs Howard-23.051.0W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Northwestern at Nebraska+10.540.0L 9 - 17UY
Sat 10/28 Northwestern vs Maryland+14.048.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Northwestern vs Iowa+4.530.5L 7 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Northwestern at Wisconsin+9.543.5W 24 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-2.547.5W 23 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Northwestern at Illinois+5.046.5W 45 - 43OY
Sat 12/23 Northwestern vs Utah+6.544.5W 14 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#86 (.16)42% (60)23.945% (51)3.16 (60)16941% (78)2113.21 (112)#74 (.19)40% (44)30.441% (45)40% (52)4.28 (112)57.61.51.5
NW#113 (.1)38% (110)22.139% (109)2.63 (129)10238% (102)2024.11 (48)#33 (.14)43% (83)22.543% (73)44% (94)3.65 (56)42.60.71.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1223.91642.5%3.211.5203801692114.451%48%45%41%18%.16
NW Defense1322.52443.1%3.651.8 - - - - - 54%45%43%44%14%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1230.426.440.2%4.281.5 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%17%.19
NW Offense1322.127.838.3%4.110.7173041022022.949%51%39%38%16%.1

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1230:2520.436%39%657.61.51.55.82.8129.4
Northwestern1328:3416.840%21%5.342.60.71.84.21.9029.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1251% (55)45% (51)38.5168.84.420 (61).15 (69)3.16 (60)54% (133)12% (118)0.98 (76)
NW Defense1354% (115)43% (73) - - - - .09 (36)3.12 (73)69% (43)9% (105)0.92 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1251% (80)41% (45) - - - - .08 (31)3 (48)68% (41)11% (38)0.97 (53)
NW Offense1349% (79)39% (109)35.2101.92.913 (108).05 (120)2.63 (129)70% (97)11% (88)0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1248% (81)41% (78)19.532.7211.26.510.815 (96)10 (56).22 (89)1.5 (111)31% (56)30% (75).31 (75)6% (71)2.1 (58)
NW Defense1345% (20)44% (94) - - - - - - 13 (26).22 (39)1.4 (9)29% (123)32% (102).31 (68)5% (101)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1249% (56)40% (52) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (102)1.8 (121)33% (50)32% (93).38 (101)6% (73)2.2 (96)
NW Offense1351% (51)38% (102)18.529.92026.810.920 (70)8 (30).18 (100)1.6 (62)35% (116)29% (84).36 (59)5% (23)2.2 (25)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.72 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -2.72   Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.4   Northwestern: -1.4




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Northwestern 27
Purdue 21


Total Points: 48

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Purdue20Northwestern26NorthwesternPurdue -3Northwestern44.5Over
202311/18Northwestern23Purdue15NorthwesternNorthwestern -2.5Northwestern47.5Under
202211/19Purdue17Northwestern9PurduePurdue -17.5Northwestern44.5Under
202111/20Northwestern14Purdue32PurduePurdue -11Purdue47.5Under
202011/14Purdue20Northwestern27NorthwesternNorthwestern -3.5Northwestern48.5Under
201911/09Northwestern22Purdue24PurduePurdue -0.0Purdue38.5Over
201808/30Purdue27Northwestern31NorthwesternPurdue -1Northwestern52.5Over
201711/11Northwestern23Purdue13NorthwesternNorthwestern -6Northwestern49.5Under
201611/12Purdue17Northwestern45NorthwesternNorthwestern -10.5Northwestern58.0Over
201511/14Northwestern21Purdue14NorthwesternNorthwestern -13Purdue48.0Under
201411/22Purdue14Northwestern38NorthwesternNorthwestern -2Northwestern0
201010/09Northwestern17Purdue20Purdue
200910/03Purdue21Northwestern27Northwestern
200810/18Northwestern48Purdue26Northwestern
200710/27Purdue35Northwestern17Purdue
200610/14Northwestern10Purdue31Purdue
200510/15Purdue29Northwestern34Northwestern
200410/30Northwestern13Purdue10Northwestern
200311/01Purdue34Northwestern14Purdue
200210/26Northwestern13Purdue42Purdue
200110/27Purdue32Northwestern27Purdue
200010/13Northwestern28Purdue41Purdue
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern1284 Overs
Purdue1036 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 132 - 92 - 50 - 4
Road Teams13 - 99 - 24 - 05 - 2

(#81) Purdue Info
Power Rating: -2.72 #81
Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #37
Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30


Purdue has won 1 straight
Purdue has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Purdue Highlights
Purdue Defense Sacks the QB a lot


Purdue Deficiencies
Purdue offense is not Explosive (#69)
Purdue Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#117)
Purdue offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#90)
Purdue gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#59)
Purdue has a bad red zone defense (#60)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNWPUR
OverallOver#67#96
OffenseOff#92#89
DefenseDef#28#87
Special TeamsST#57#46
PassingPass#72#58
RushingRush#92#51
Run BlockRBLK#69#73
Pass BlockPBLK#85#73
Route RunningWR Rt#79#92
TacklingTkl#35#38
Run DefenseR Def#28#65
Pass Rush DefPRush#90#45
Coverage DefCov#26#113

Rematch from Week 12
Northwestern -2.5 (47.5)
Northwestern won vs Purdue this year (23-15)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Purdue last year (26-20)
Northwestern beat Purdue in 2023 (23-15)
Purdue beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-9)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PUR | NW
Depth Chart: PUR | NW
Rosters: PUR | NW
(#66) Northwestern Info
Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90


Northwestern has won 1 straight
Northwestern has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Northwestern Highlights
Northwestern defense does not give up big plays (#66)
Northwestern has a great TO Margin (#131)
Northwestern defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Northwestern Deficiencies
Northwestern Can Not Run the Ball (#51)
Northwestern offense is really bad (#69)
Northwestern offense is not Explosive (#115)
Northwestern Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#61)
Northwestern run game is really bad (#53)
Northwestern pass game is really bad (#70)


  
Purdue's OC Graham Harrell
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)21536559%23871586.5
Ryan Browne121675%104026.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee17280764.765
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11371686.362
Dylan Downing4821114.425
Hudson Card (Tr)9320352.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deion Burks47629713.484
TJ Sheffield32381211.943
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen25329013.230
Garrett Miller3024328.128

View Purdue's Full Roster
Purdue's DC Kevin Kane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1062012
Sanoussi Kane796127
Kydran Jenkins5615881
Yanni Karlaftis553300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway4915933
Kydran Jenkins5615881
O.C. Brothers206313
Yanni Karlaftis553300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sanoussi Kane796127
Marquis Wilson (Tr)200006
Cam Allen301006

Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Bryant17327763%18071366.5
Brendan Sullivan639964%714627.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter16665143.934
Anthony Tyus III5023814.839
Brendan Sullivan7516022.135
Joseph Himon II3513603.932
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)54715613.252
Bryce Kirtz49701514.380
A.J. Henning (Tr)4541849.341
Joseph Himon II18219112.285

View Northwestern's Full Roster
Northwestern's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Gallagher1134102
Xander Mueller10310502
Rod Heard824104
Devin Turner751004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard269621
Anto Saka136610
Xander Mueller10310502
Jaylen Pate223300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson352005
Sean McLaughlin182135
Rod Heard824104