Wisconsin at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview
Wisconsin logo   Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini  Illinois logo
Saturday, October 21st 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -3 (40.5) (-155)  Open: -5.0 | 43.0
Wisconsin 25 - Illinois: 21  (Big Ten)

 
Badgers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (9 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 4.1 (#29)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
ILL is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -7.5  (SP+ WIS -12.5)
Projected Score: WIS: 24 - ILL: 17 (41)
WIS Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WIS Travel: 214 miles
Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Wisconsin's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Wisconsin vs Buffalo-29.052.5W 38 - 17ON
Sat 9/9 Wisconsin at Washington State-5.058.0L 22 - 31UN
Sat 9/16 Wisconsin vs Georgia Southern-20.565.5W 35 - 14UY
Fri 9/22 Wisconsin at Purdue-5.554.0W 38 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Wisconsin vs Rutgers-12.544.0W 24 - 13UN
Sat 10/14 Wisconsin vs Iowa-8.033.5L 6 - 15UN
Sat 10/21 Wisconsin at Illinois-3.040.5W 25 - 21OY
Sat 10/28 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+14.548.0L 10 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 Wisconsin at Indiana-9.545.0L 14 - 20UN
Sat 11/11 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.543.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Wisconsin vs Nebraska-7.536.5W 24 - 17ON
Sat 11/25 Wisconsin at Minnesota-1.542.0W 28 - 14UY
Mon 1/1 Wisconsin vs LSU+9.559.5L 31 - 35OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Illinois's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Illinois vs Toledo-7.045.5W 30 - 28ON
Fri 9/8 Illinois at Kansas+3.557.5L 23 - 34UN
Sat 9/16 Illinois vs Penn State+14.047.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 9/23 Illinois vs Florida Atlantic-16.045.5W 23 - 17UN
Sat 9/30 Illinois at Purdue+1.054.0L 19 - 44ON
Fri 10/6 Illinois vs Nebraska-3.543.0L 7 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Illinois at Maryland+13.552.0W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/21 Illinois vs Wisconsin+3.040.5L 21 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Illinois at Minnesota+1.543.0W 27 - 26OY
Sat 11/11 Illinois vs Indiana-4.543.5W 48 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 Illinois at Iowa+2.533.5L 13 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Illinois vs Northwestern-5.046.5L 43 - 45ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS.1642%12.845%3.0718038%1844.33.0736%21.635%39%3.6157.81.41.6
ILL.1544%29.443%3.0716845%2093.37-.0233%23.630%36%2.259.11.22.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ILL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Offense1312.8942.2%4.331.4183641801844.759%40%45%38%15%.16
ILL Defense1323.614.432.8%2.22.5 - - - - - 45%53%30%36%22%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Defense1321.626.236.4%3.611.6 - - - - - 49%49%35%39%19%.07
ILL Offense1329.431.343.8%3.371.221377168209454%46%43%45%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wisconsin1331:0817.940%47%6.257.81.41.66.22.5230.1
Illinois1332:4121.238%48%6.459.11.22.56.12.1130.1
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Offense1359%45%38.5179.84.721.173.0776%10%0.96
ILL Defense1345%30% - - - - -.032.6450%11%1.1
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Defense1349%35% - - - - -.022.5765%11%0.86
ILL Offense1354%43%41.9167.7418.083.0772%10%0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Offense1340%38%14.525.1183.87.312.72111.181.730%27%.216%2.2
ILL Defense1353%36% - - - - - - 24.071.436%23%.0511%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Defense1349%39% - - - - - - 17.191.636%27%.217%2
ILL Offense1346%45%2130.2209.46.910155.251.430%32%.242%1.7

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 7.64  #28
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 16.47  #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 4.78  #26
2023 Talent Rating: 741.63  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 22%  #31
Wisconsin's 2023 Expected Record: 8.90 - 4.10
Wisconsin's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #28
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #90
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.7  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 7.64   Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 9.9   Illinois: -2.6




Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055  #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75  #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25  #104
2023 Talent Rating: 630.95  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6  #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6  #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

Wisconsin's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 24
Illinois 17

Projected Total Points: 41
Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Wisconsin27Illinois10Illinois -8.5Wisconsin42.5Under
202310/21Illinois21Wisconsin25Wisconsin -3Wisconsin40.5Over
202210/01Wisconsin10Illinois34Wisconsin -6.5Illinois43.0Over
202110/09Illinois0Wisconsin24Wisconsin -12.5Wisconsin42.0Under
202010/23Wisconsin45Illinois7Wisconsin -20.5Wisconsin51.5Over
201910/19Illinois24Wisconsin23Wisconsin -28.5Illinois52.0Under
201810/20Wisconsin49Illinois20Wisconsin -24Wisconsin53.5Over
201710/28Illinois10Wisconsin24Wisconsin -28.5Illinois51.0Under
201611/12Wisconsin48Illinois3Wisconsin -26.5Wisconsin42.0Over
201510/24Illinois13Wisconsin24Wisconsin -7Wisconsin46.5Under
201410/11Wisconsin38Illinois28Wisconsin -24Illinois0
201310/19Illinois32Wisconsin56Wisconsin -10Wisconsin0
201210/06Wisconsin31Illinois14
201111/19Illinois17Wisconsin28
200810/25Wisconsin27Illinois17
200710/06Illinois31Wisconsin26
200610/28Wisconsin30Illinois24
200510/29Illinois24Wisconsin41
200410/02Wisconsin24Illinois7
200309/27Illinois20Wisconsin38
200211/09Wisconsin20Illinois37
200110/20Illinois42Wisconsin35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Illinois545 Overs
Wisconsin1785 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 106 - 63 - 23 - 4
Road Teams10 - 126 - 64 - 32 - 3

(#28) WIS at (#63) ILL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWISILL
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #28 #63
SP+SP+ #28 #75
Perf GradeGrade #55 #72
OffenseOff #72 #70
DefenseDef #29 #67
Spec TeamsST #53 #7
TalentTal #30 #63
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #63
Wisconsin on Offense
CategoryCat
WIS OffILL Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #67
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #67 #104
SP+SP+ #90 #49
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Wisconsin Run Game
CategoryCat
WIS OffILL Def
Run GameRun #97 #40
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #28
Wisconsin Pass Game
CategoryCat
WIS OffILL Def
Pass GamePass #55 #110
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #70
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Illinois on Offense
CategoryCatILL OffWIS Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #70 #29
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #47 #26
SP+SP+ #90 #6
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Illinois Run Game
CategoryCat
ILL OffWIS Def
Run GameRun #124 #38
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #22
Illinois Pass Game
CategoryCatILL OffWIS Def
Pass GamePass #50 #50
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #118 #59
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

WIS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Wisconsin 3.0 (40.5)
Wisconsin won at Illinois this year (25-21)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Illinois last year (27-10)
Wisconsin beat Illinois in 2023 (25-21)

  
WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)20431465%2065946.6
Braedyn Locke (Tr)7615250%778515.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braelon Allen181984125.452
Jackson Acker7232224.533
Chez Mellusi5130746.089
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)9030343.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Pauling (Tr)74837611.353
Bryson Green (Tr)32480215.054
Chimere Dike19328117.341
Skyler Bell3829717.830

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler1206146
Jake Chaney807310
Jordan Turner617332
Maema Njongmeta599351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darryl Peterson4710542
C.J. Goetz5911452
James Thompson Jr.296312
Jordan Turner617332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler1206146
Ricardo Hallman343005
Alexander Smith273105

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)17527065%188313107.0
John Paddock (Tr)8514260%1294939.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Reggie Love III11656744.961
Kaden Feagin9543824.625
Luke Altmyer (Tr)9428233.072
Joshua McCray4315623.614
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Williams821055512.967
Casey Washington49670413.780
Patrick Bryant43560713.046
Tip Reiman19203310.742

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Rosiek828123
Miles Scott630003
Xavier Scott5700011
Jer'Zhan Newton529892
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jer'Zhan Newton529892
Seth Coleman509623
Gabe Jacas314351
Keith Randolph Jr.494241
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Scott5700011
Tahveon Nicholson362006
Zachary Tobe250005