Wisconsin at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -3 (40.5) (-155) Open: -5.0 | 43.0
Wisconsin 25 - Illinois: 21 (Big Ten)

Badgers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 24 - 20 (25 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 4.1 (#29)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 25.5 MPH
ILL is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -7.5 (SP+ WIS -12.5)
Projected Score: WIS: 26 - ILL: 18 (44)
WIS Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WIS Travel: 214 miles

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 25 - 29 (26 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
WIS Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Wisconsin's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Wisconsin vs Buffalo	-29.0	52.5	W 38 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/9	Wisconsin at Washington State	-5.0	58.0	L 22 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/16	Wisconsin vs Georgia Southern	-20.5	65.5	W 35 - 14	U	Y
Fri 9/22	Wisconsin at Purdue	-5.5	54.0	W 38 - 17	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Wisconsin vs Rutgers	-12.5	44.0	W 24 - 13	U	N
Sat 10/14	Wisconsin vs Iowa	-8.0	33.5	L 6 - 15	U	N
Sat 10/21	Wisconsin at Illinois	-3.0	40.5	W 25 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Wisconsin vs Ohio State	+14.5	48.0	L 10 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Wisconsin at Indiana	-9.5	45.0	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/11	Wisconsin vs Northwestern	-9.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Wisconsin vs Nebraska	-7.5	36.5	W 24 - 17	O	N
Sat 11/25	Wisconsin at Minnesota	-1.5	42.0	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Mon 1/1	Wisconsin vs LSU	+9.5	59.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#84 (.16)	44% (50)	23.5	50% (15)	3.52 (7)	151	38% (100)	191	4.02 (55)	#17 (.1)	40% (47)	20.2	40% (41)	42% (72)	2.98 (13)	44.2	1.2	1.2
ILL	#66 (.2)	45% (30)	24.5	44% (56)	3.31 (32)	125	48% (14)	266	3.9 (71)	#85 (.2)	44% (102)	29.4	45% (87)	45% (110)	4.09 (96)	62.4	1.9	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)		46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)		45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1
ILL	#31 (.25)	45% (45)		45% (51)	3.14 (49)	140	44% (44)	198	4.23 (39)	#76 (.18)	46% (115)		50% (127)	43% (90)	3.48 (37)	39	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Offense	13	23.5	25.4	43.6%	4.02	1.2	18	342	151	191	4.7	47%	52%	50%	38%	15%	.16
ILL Defense	12	29.4	30	44.4%	4.09	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	45%	15%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WIS Defense	13	20.2	20.6	40.4%	2.98	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	40%	42%	17%	.1
ILL Offense	12	24.5	26.4	45.5%	3.9	1.9	20	391	125	266	3.8	45%	53%	44%	48%	20%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Wisconsin	13	26:53	18.3	45%	28%	5.1	44.2	1.2	1.2	5.8	2.2	1	29.2
Illinois	12	28:24	20.3	37%	54%	6.6	62.4	1.9	1.3	4.8	1.9	2	26

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Offense	13	47% (92)	50% (15)	32.3	151.3	4.7	21 (54)	.22 (31)	3.52 (7)	74% (67)	8% (26)	0.89 (116)
ILL Defense	12	51% (75)	45% (87)	-	-	-	-	.15 (78)	3.27 (104)	73% (68)	9% (100)	0.89 (22)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WIS Defense	13	51% (78)	40% (41)	-	-	-	-	.09 (38)	3.06 (57)	64% (20)	11% (42)	0.96 (44)
ILL Offense	12	45% (103)	44% (56)	33	125.1	3.8	12 (116)	.07 (108)	3.31 (32)	67% (109)	12% (98)	0.84 (125)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Offense	13	52% (41)	38% (100)	19.5	33	191.1	5.8	9.8	11 (117)	5 (6)	.13 (116)	1.4 (132)	30% (34)	34% (42)	.28 (85)	7% (106)	1.7 (132)
ILL Defense	12	49% (69)	45% (110)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (111)	.28 (76)	1.5 (21)	31% (78)	34% (114)	.3 (63)	6% (62)	1.8 (7)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WIS Defense	13	48% (51)	42% (72)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.19 (21)	1.4 (15)	32% (63)	28% (36)	.27 (43)	6% (61)	2 (51)
ILL Offense	12	53% (35)	48% (14)	21.8	34.5	265.9	7.7	12.2	23 (51)	13 (97)	.37 (35)	1.5 (108)	28% (14)	33% (48)	.36 (63)	9% (130)	1.9 (108)

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 7.64 #28
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 16.47 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 4.78 #26
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 22% #31
Wisconsin's 2023 Expected Record: 8.90 - 4.10
Wisconsin's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9 #28
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.7 #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 7.64 Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 9.9 Illinois: -2.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.4
Defense: 20.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.6

Wisconsin's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Wisconsin 26
Illinois 18

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Wisconsin 27
Illinois 16

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Wisconsin 27
Illinois 23

Total Points: 50

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 24.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.4
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Wisconsin	27	Illinois	10	Illinois -8.5	Wisconsin	42.5	Under
2023	10/21	Illinois	21	Wisconsin	25	Wisconsin -3	Wisconsin	40.5	Over
2022	10/01	Wisconsin	10	Illinois	34	Wisconsin -6.5	Illinois	43.0	Over
2021	10/09	Illinois	0	Wisconsin	24	Wisconsin -12.5	Wisconsin	42.0	Under
2020	10/23	Wisconsin	45	Illinois	7	Wisconsin -20.5	Wisconsin	51.5	Over
2019	10/19	Illinois	24	Wisconsin	23	Wisconsin -28.5	Illinois	52.0	Under
2018	10/20	Wisconsin	49	Illinois	20	Wisconsin -24	Wisconsin	53.5	Over
2017	10/28	Illinois	10	Wisconsin	24	Wisconsin -28.5	Illinois	51.0	Under
2016	11/12	Wisconsin	48	Illinois	3	Wisconsin -26.5	Wisconsin	42.0	Over
2015	10/24	Illinois	13	Wisconsin	24	Wisconsin -7	Wisconsin	46.5	Under
2014	10/11	Wisconsin	38	Illinois	28	Wisconsin -24	Illinois	0
2013	10/19	Illinois	32	Wisconsin	56	Wisconsin -10	Wisconsin	0
2012	10/06	Wisconsin	31	Illinois	14
2011	11/19	Illinois	17	Wisconsin	28
2008	10/25	Wisconsin	27	Illinois	17
2007	10/06	Illinois	31	Wisconsin	26
2006	10/28	Wisconsin	30	Illinois	24
2005	10/29	Illinois	24	Wisconsin	41
2004	10/02	Wisconsin	24	Illinois	7
2003	09/27	Illinois	20	Wisconsin	38
2002	11/09	Wisconsin	20	Illinois	37
2001	10/20	Illinois	42	Wisconsin	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	5	4	5 Overs
Wisconsin	17	8	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	6 - 6	3 - 2	3 - 4
Road Teams	10 - 12	6 - 6	4 - 3	2 - 3

(#28) WIS at (#63) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WIS	ILL
Power RatePwr	#28	#63
SP+SP+	#28	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#55	#72
OffenseOff	#72	#70
DefenseDef	#29	#67
Spec TeamsST	#53	#7
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#31	#63

Wisconsin Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Wisconsin on Offense


CategoryCat	WIS Off	ILL Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#67
SuccessSuc	#50	#102
ExplosiveExp	#131	#14
PPAPPA	#84	#85
PowerPwr	#67	#104
SP+SP+	#90	#49
Pts POPPO	#55	#96
HavocHav	#54	#87

Wisconsin Run Game


CategoryCat	WIS Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#97	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#15	#87
Run ExplRExp	#116	#22
PPAExp	#31	#78
Run BlockR Blk	#33	-
OL YdsOLY	#7	#104
Stuff RateStuff	#5	#83
TackleTak	-	#28

Wisconsin Pass Game


CategoryCat	WIS Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#55	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#110
Pass ExplPExl	#132	#21
PPAExp	#116	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#70
F7 HavocF7	#26	#100
DB HavocDB	#106	#62

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	WIS Def
Perf GradePerf	#70	#29
SuccessSuc	#30	#47
ExplosiveExp	#113	#19
PPAPPA	#66	#17
PowerPwr	#47	#26
SP+SP+	#90	#6
Pts POPPO	#71	#13
HavocHav	#124	#44

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	#124	#38
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#41
Run ExplRExp	#125	#44
PPAExp	#108	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#57
Stuff RateStuff	#23	#54
TackleTak	-	#22

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#72
Pass ExplPExl	#108	#15
PPAExp	#35	#21
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#59
F7 HavocF7	#98	#42
DB HavocDB	#130	#61

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

WIS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71° - Wind: 26 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Wisconsin 3.0 (40.5)
Wisconsin won at Illinois this year (25-21)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Illinois in 2023 (25-21)
Illinois beat Wisconsin in 2022 (34-10)

WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)	204	314	65%	2065	9	4	6.6
Braedyn Locke (Tr)	76	152	50%	778	5	1	5.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Braelon Allen	181	984	12	5.4	52
Jackson Acker	72	322	2	4.5	33
Chez Mellusi	51	307	4	6.0	89
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)	90	303	4	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Pauling (Tr)	74	837	6	11.3	53
Bryson Green (Tr)	32	480	2	15.0	54
Chimere Dike	19	328	1	17.3	41
Skyler Bell	38	297	1	7.8	30

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	120	6	1	4	6
Jake Chaney	80	7	3	1	0
Jordan Turner	61	7	3	3	2
Maema Njongmeta	59	9	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darryl Peterson	47	10	5	4	2
C.J. Goetz	59	11	4	5	2
James Thompson Jr.	29	6	3	1	2
Jordan Turner	61	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	120	6	1	4	6
Ricardo Hallman	34	3	0	0	5
Alexander Smith	27	3	1	0	5

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5