Minnesota at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Minnesota -11.5 (39.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Northwestern 37 - Minnesota: 34 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MINN 2nd straight Road Game
NW is playing their 4th straight game
MINN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -4.5 (SP+ MINN -0)
Projected Score: MINN: 19 - NW: 23 (42)
MINN Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
MINN Travel: 342 miles

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	20.9	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	26.7	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	20.9	18.4	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09
NW Defense	13	22.5	24	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	26.7	32.8	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22
NW Offense	13	22.1	27.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -4.18 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -4.18 Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -1.3 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 23
Minnesota 19

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 26
Minnesota 15

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 27
Minnesota 22

Total Points: 49

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Northwestern	38	Minnesota	35	Northwestern -4.0	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2023	09/23	Northwestern	37	Minnesota	34	Minnesota -11.5	Northwestern	39.5	Over
2022	11/12	Minnesota	31	Northwestern	3	Minnesota -17	Minnesota	40.5	Under
2021	10/30	Northwestern	14	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -7.5	Minnesota	43.5	Over
2019	11/23	Northwestern	22	Minnesota	38	Minnesota -15.5	Minnesota	41.0	Over
2018	11/17	Minnesota	14	Northwestern	24	Minnesota -3	Northwestern	48.5	Under
2017	11/18	Northwestern	39	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -7	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2016	11/19	Minnesota	29	Northwestern	12	Minnesota -2	Minnesota	46.0	Under
2015	10/03	Northwestern	27	Minnesota	0	Northwestern -6.5	Northwestern	40.5	Under
2014	10/11	Minnesota	24	Northwestern	17	Minnesota -3.5	Minnesota	45.0	Under
2013	10/19	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	20	Northwestern -13	Minnesota	0
2012	10/13	Minnesota	13	Northwestern	21
2011	11/19	Northwestern	28	Minnesota	13
2010	10/02	Minnesota	28	Northwestern	29
2009	09/26	Northwestern	24	Minnesota	35
2008	11/01	Minnesota	17	Northwestern	24
2007	10/13	Northwestern	49	Minnesota	48
2004	09/25	Minnesota	43	Northwestern	17
2003	10/04	Northwestern	17	Minnesota	42
2002	10/10	Minnesota	45	Northwestern	42
2001	10/13	Northwestern	23	Minnesota	17
2000	10/27	Minnesota	35	Northwestern	41

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	12	4	4 Overs
Minnesota	10	7	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 10	6 - 5	5 - 3	1 - 2
Road Teams	10 - 12	5 - 6	2 - 1	3 - 5

(#88) MINN at (#66) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#88	#66
SP+SP+	#69	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#70	#82
OffenseOff	#61	#109
DefenseDef	#91	#34
Spec TeamsST	#96	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#49

Minnesota Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#34
SuccessSuc	#87	#83
ExplosiveExp	#128	#6
PPAPPA	#118	#33
PowerPwr	#108	#66
SP+SP+	#105	#30
Pts POPPO	#73	#56
HavocHav	#14	#115

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#44	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#73
Run ExplRExp	#127	#31
PPAExp	#92	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#9
PPAExp	#123	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#122
F7 HavocF7	#13	#105
DB HavocDB	#52	#101

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#91
SuccessSuc	#110	#75
ExplosiveExp	#108	#75
PPAPPA	#113	#93
PowerPwr	#79	#99
SP+SP+	#104	#37
Pts POPPO	#48	#129
HavocHav	#67	#131

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#126	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#90
Run ExplRExp	#128	#63
PPAExp	#120	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#91
TackleTak	-	#113

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#73
PPAExp	#100	#83
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#31
F7 HavocF7	#88	#132
DB HavocDB	#23	#116

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 68° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 4
Minnesota 11.5 (39.5)
Northwestern won vs Minnesota this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Minnesota in 2023 (37-34)
Minnesota beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-3)

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	156	294	53%	1838	14	9	6.3
Cole Kramer	8	17	47%	26	2	2	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	138	799	5	5.8	43
Jordan Nubin	127	559	3	4.4	21
Sean Tyler (Tr)	61	242	0	4.0	19
Zach Evans	52	230	1	4.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	59	831	8	14.1	39
Corey Crooms (Tr)	28	376	0	13.4	32
Brevyn Spann-Ford	25	239	2	9.6	31
Darius Taylor	11	92	0	8.4	25

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Nick Monroe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	52	4	0	0	1
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	0	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	0	3
Maverick Baranowski	48	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jah Joyner	18	8	8	2	0
Danny Striggow	42	6	6	2	0
Kyler Baugh	39	5	3	3	3
Jalen Logan-Redding	29	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Justin Walley	38	2	0	8
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	3

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4