Indiana at Illinois - 2023 Matchup Preview

Indiana Hoosiers at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Illinois -4.5 (43.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Illinois 48 - Indiana: 45 (Big Ten)

Hoosiers (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tom Allen (31 - 42)
Avg Score : 42 - 12 (38 - 14 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IND is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Illinois -8 (SP+ ILL -5)
Projected Score: IND: 20 - ILL: 28 (48)
ILL Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
IND Travel: 111 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (14 - 14)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.2 - 6.8 (#95)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
IND Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Indiana's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Indiana vs Ohio State	+30.0	59.0	L 3 - 23	U	Y
Fri 9/8	Indiana vs Indiana State	-31.0	44.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Indiana vs Louisville	+10.0	51.0	L 14 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Indiana vs Akron	-16.5	45.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/30	Indiana at Maryland	+14.5	50.0	L 17 - 44	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Indiana at Michigan	+33.5	45.5	L 7 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	Indiana vs Rutgers	+6.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/28	Indiana at Penn State	+31.0	45.0	L 24 - 33	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Indiana vs Wisconsin	+9.5	45.0	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Indiana at Illinois	+4.5	43.5	L 45 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Indiana vs Michigan State	-3.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/25	Indiana at Purdue	+2.5	55.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Indiana's Schedule

Illinois's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Illinois vs Toledo	-7.0	45.5	W 30 - 28	O	N
Fri 9/8	Illinois at Kansas	+3.5	57.5	L 23 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/16	Illinois vs Penn State	+14.0	47.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/23	Illinois vs Florida Atlantic	-16.0	45.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/30	Illinois at Purdue	+1.0	54.0	L 19 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/6	Illinois vs Nebraska	-3.5	43.0	L 7 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Illinois at Maryland	+13.5	52.0	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Illinois vs Wisconsin	+3.0	40.5	L 21 - 25	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Illinois at Minnesota	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Illinois vs Indiana	-4.5	43.5	W 48 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	Illinois at Iowa	+2.5	33.5	L 13 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Illinois vs Northwestern	-5.0	46.5	L 43 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND	.08	37%	41.6	40%	2.91	111	35%	217	3.39	.19	44%	11.7	39%	50%	3.94	45.6	1.5	1.2
ILL	.15	44%	29.4	43%	3.07	168	45%	209	3.37	-.02	33%	23.6	30%	36%	2.2	59.1	1.2	2.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IND		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Offense	12	41.6	37.6	37%	3.39	1.5	19	328	111	217	3.4	40%	60%	40%	35%	20%	.08
ILL Defense	13	23.6	14.4	32.8%	2.2	2.5	-	-	-	-	-	45%	53%	30%	36%	22%	-.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IND Defense	12	11.7	14.4	43.5%	3.94	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	39%	50%	14%	.19
ILL Offense	13	29.4	31.3	43.8%	3.37	1.2	21	377	168	209	4	54%	46%	43%	45%	13%	.15

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Indiana	12	25:38	19.2	34%	39%	5	45.6	1.5	1.2	5.3	1.7	2	27.1
Illinois	13	32:41	21.2	38%	48%	6.4	59.1	1.2	2.5	6.1	2.1	1	30.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Offense	12	40%	40%	33	110.8	3.4	15	.13	2.91	85%	12%	1.05
ILL Defense	13	45%	30%	-	-	-	-	-.03	2.64	50%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IND Defense	12	54%	39%	-	-	-	-	.03	2.93	62%	9%	0.86
ILL Offense	13	54%	43%	41.9	167.7	4	18	.08	3.07	72%	10%	0.85

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Offense	12	60%	35%	21.7	40.2	217.4	5.4	10	16	13	.07	1.3	35%	21%	.08	8%	2
ILL Defense	13	53%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	24	.07	1.4	36%	23%	.05	11%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IND Defense	12	46%	50%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.41	1.5	29%	34%	.31	5%	2
ILL Offense	13	46%	45%	21	30.2	209.4	6.9	10	15	5	.25	1.4	30%	32%	.24	2%	1.7

Indiana's Power Ratings
Indiana's Power Rating: -6.74 #98
Indiana's Offense Rating: 13.48 #95
Indiana's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 677.57 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #41
Indiana's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Indiana's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Indiana's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #103
Indiana's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Indiana: -6.74 Illinois: 1.055

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Indiana: -7.4 Illinois: -2.6

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 1.055 #63
Illinois's Offense Rating: 18.75 #47
Illinois's Defense Rating: 13.25 #104
2023 Talent Rating: 630.95 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Illinois's 2023 Expected Record: 5.20 - 6.80
Illinois's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.6 #75
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #90
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Indiana Scoring
Offense: 41.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.6
Defense: 11.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.4

Indiana's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 28
Indiana 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Indiana	63	Illinois	10	Indiana -7	Indiana	51.5	Over
2023	11/11	Illinois	48	Indiana	45	Illinois -4.5	Indiana	43.5	Over
2022	09/02	Indiana	23	Illinois	20	Indiana -1	Indiana	47.5	Under
2017	11/11	Illinois	14	Indiana	24	Indiana -10	NA	51.5	Under
2013	11/09	Indiana	52	Illinois	35	Indiana -7.5	Indiana	0
2012	10/27	Illinois	17	Indiana	31
2011	10/08	Indiana	20	Illinois	41
2010	10/23	Illinois	43	Indiana	13
2009	10/17	Indiana	27	Illinois	14
2008	10/18	Illinois	55	Indiana	13
2007	09/22	Indiana	14	Illinois	27
2006	10/07	Illinois	32	Indiana	34
2005	10/08	Indiana	36	Illinois	13
2004	11/06	Illinois	26	Indiana	22
2003	11/08	Indiana	17	Illinois	14
2002	10/26	Illinois	45	Indiana	14
2001	10/13	Indiana	14	Illinois	35
2000	11/03	Illinois	42	Indiana	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	9	0	2 Overs
Indiana	9	4	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 6	3 - 1	3 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 12	1 - 3	0 - 0	1 - 3

(#98) IND at (#63) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	IND	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#98	#63
SP+SP+	#90	#75
Perf GradeGrade	#101	#72
OffenseOff	#96	#70
DefenseDef	#104	#67
Spec TeamsST	#83	#7
TalentTal	#47	#63
Blue ChipsBC%	#41	#63

Indiana Injury Report

Illinois Injury Report

Indiana on Offense


CategoryCat	IND Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#67
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#95	#104
SP+SP+	#103	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Indiana Run Game


CategoryCat	IND Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	#130	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#28

Indiana Pass Game


CategoryCat	IND Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	#80	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#104	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Illinois on Offense


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IND Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#70	#104
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#47	#114
SP+SP+	#90	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Illinois Run Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IND Def
Run GameRun	#124	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#64

Illinois Pass Game


CategoryCat	ILL Off	IND Def
Pass GamePass	#50	#118
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#118	#132
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

IND 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Illinois -4.5 (43.5)
Illinois won vs Indiana this year (48-45)

Previous Matchups
Indiana beat Illinois last year (63-10)
Illinois beat Indiana in 2023 (48-45)

IND's OC Walt Bell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sorsby	135	236	57%	1582	15	5	6.7
Tayven Jackson (Tr)	78	128	61%	914	2	5	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trenten Howland	76	354	2	4.7	19
Josh Henderson	81	337	2	4.2	29
Brendan Sorsby	113	291	4	2.6	25
Jaylin Lucas	67	275	2	4.1	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Donaven McCulley	48	644	6	13.4	69
Dequece Carter (Tr)	27	395	3	14.6	90
Cam Camper	17	285	1	16.8	41
E.J. Williams (Tr)	23	276	0	12.0	27

View Indiana's Full Roster

IND's DC Matt Guerrieri (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Casey	108	20	7	1	3
Louis Moore	84	1	0	0	1
Jacob Mangum-Farrar (Tr)	62	4	0	3	4
Phillip Dunnam	53	1	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Casey	108	20	7	1	3
Lanell Carr (Tr)	33	9	5	2	2
Andre Carter (Tr)	49	11	2	3	3
Myles Jackson	25	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Phillip Dunnam	53	1	0	6
Jacob Mangum-Farrar (Tr)	62	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	29	0	0	4

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	175	270	65%	1883	13	10	7.0
John Paddock (Tr)	85	142	60%	1294	9	3	9.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reggie Love III	116	567	4	4.9	61
Kaden Feagin	95	438	2	4.6	25
Luke Altmyer (Tr)	94	282	3	3.0	72
Joshua McCray	43	156	2	3.6	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Williams	82	1055	5	12.9	67
Casey Washington	49	670	4	13.7	80
Patrick Bryant	43	560	7	13.0	46
Tip Reiman	19	203	3	10.7	42

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Aaron Henry (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Rosiek	82	8	1	2	3
Miles Scott	63	0	0	0	3
Xavier Scott	57	0	0	0	11
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jer'Zhan Newton	52	9	8	9	2
Seth Coleman	50	9	6	2	3
Gabe Jacas	31	4	3	5	1
Keith Randolph Jr.	49	4	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Xavier Scott	57	0	11
Tahveon Nicholson	36	2	6
Zachary Tobe	25	0	5