Utah at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Utah -6.5 (44.5) (-275) Open: -7.0 | 42.0
Northwestern 14 - Utah: 7 (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl)

Utes (8 - 5) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (157 - 74)
Avg Score : 23 - 19 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 6.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Utah -7.5 (SP+ UTAH -9.5)
Projected Score: UTAH: 27 - NW: 19 (46)
UTAH Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UTAH Travel: 2180 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
UTAH Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Utah's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Utah vs Florida	-5.5	44.5	W 24 - 11	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah at Baylor	-7.0	46.5	W 20 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/16	Utah vs Weber State	-26.5	44.0	W 31 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/23	Utah vs UCLA	-3.0	50.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y
Fri 9/29	Utah at Oregon State	+4.0	43.0	L 7 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Utah vs California	-9.0	42.5	W 34 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah at USC	+7.5	51.5	W 34 - 32	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Utah vs Oregon	+6.5	47.5	L 6 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/4	Utah vs Arizona State	-11.0	40.5	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah at Washington	+9.5	48.5	L 28 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah at Arizona	+2.5	45.5	L 18 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Utah vs Colorado	-21.5	43.5	W 23 - 17	U	N
Sat 12/23	Utah vs Northwestern	-6.5	44.5	L 7 - 14	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Utah's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTAH	#112 (.11)	40% (89)	23.2	42% (83)	3.09 (72)	183	39% (92)	166	3.29 (107)	#38 (.14)	36% (16)	19.3	38% (30)	35% (9)	3.48 (45)	41.2	1	1.2
NW	#113 (.1)	38% (110)	22.1	39% (109)	2.63 (129)	102	38% (102)	202	4.11 (48)	#33 (.14)	43% (83)	22.5	43% (73)	44% (94)	3.65 (56)	42.6	0.7	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UTAH	#120 (.08)	37% (125)		38% (116)	2.73 (114)	130	35% (119)	199	3.4 (111)	#7 (.05)	35% (4)		37% (10)	34% (6)	3.13 (15)	46.3	1.8	1.5
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTAH Offense	13	23.2	21.4	40.4%	3.29	1	19	348	183	166	4.2	60%	39%	42%	39%	14%	.11
NW Defense	13	22.5	24	43.1%	3.65	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	43%	44%	14%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UTAH Defense	13	19.3	28.6	36.4%	3.48	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	39%	60%	38%	35%	17%	.14
NW Offense	13	22.1	27.8	38.3%	4.11	0.7	17	304	102	202	2.9	49%	51%	39%	38%	16%	.1

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Utah	13	34:07	18.8	41%	41%	4.9	41.2	1	1.2	5.3	2.5	2	29.6
Northwestern	13	28:34	16.8	40%	21%	5.3	42.6	0.7	1.8	4.2	1.9	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTAH Offense	13	60% (11)	42% (83)	43.2	182.5	4.2	19 (69)	.13 (82)	3.09 (72)	69% (100)	8% (37)	1 (63)
NW Defense	13	54% (115)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.09 (36)	3.12 (73)	69% (43)	9% (105)	0.92 (31)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UTAH Defense	13	39% (1)	38% (30)	-	-	-	-	.09 (37)	2.93 (39)	70% (49)	11% (41)	1.01 (77)
NW Offense	13	49% (79)	39% (109)	35.2	101.9	2.9	13 (108)	.05 (120)	2.63 (129)	70% (97)	11% (88)	0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTAH Offense	13	39% (123)	39% (92)	14.5	25.2	165.8	6.6	11.4	15 (96)	11 (68)	.13 (117)	1.5 (114)	30% (37)	28% (92)	.17 (113)	5% (38)	1.8 (121)
NW Defense	13	45% (20)	44% (94)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.22 (39)	1.4 (9)	29% (123)	32% (102)	.31 (68)	5% (101)	1.8 (9)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UTAH Defense	13	60% (133)	35% (9)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.18 (20)	1.7 (99)	38% (4)	23% (4)	.2 (18)	6% (77)	2.1 (90)
NW Offense	13	51% (51)	38% (102)	18.5	29.9	202	6.8	10.9	20 (70)	8 (30)	.18 (100)	1.6 (62)	35% (116)	29% (84)	.36 (59)	5% (23)	2.2 (25)

Utah's Power Ratings
Utah's Power Rating: 4.51 #38
Utah's Offense Rating: 13.26 #97
Utah's Defense Rating: 6.62 #37
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 24% #27
Utah's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 6.30
Utah's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3 #35
Utah's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #60
Utah's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Utah: 4.51 Northwestern: -0.98

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Utah: 8.3 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: -0.98 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Utah Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.4
Defense: 19.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.6

Utah's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Utah 27
Northwestern 19

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Utah 35
Northwestern 12

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Northwestern 25
Utah 23

Total Points: 48

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Northwestern	14	Utah	7	Utah -6.5	Northwestern	44.5	Under
2018	12/31	Utah	20	Northwestern	31	Utah -7	Northwestern	43.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	2	2	1 Overs
Utah	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

Utah Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Vegas Bowl	Utah vs Northwestern	-6.5	44.5	L 7 - 14
2022	Rose Bowl	Utah vs Penn State	+1.5	55.5	L 21 - 35
2021	Rose Bowl	Utah vs Ohio State	+4.5	64.5	L 45 - 48
2019	N/A	Utah vs Texas	-7.5	57.0	L 10 - 38
2018	N/A	Utah vs Northwestern	-7.0	43.0	L 20 - 31
2017	Dallas Bowl	Utah vs West Virginia	-6.5	56.0	W 30 - 14

Northwestern Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Vegas Bowl	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7
2020	Citrus Bowl	Northwestern vs Auburn	-3.5	43.5	W 35 - 19
2018	N/A	Northwestern vs Utah	+7.0	43.0	W 31 - 20
2017	N/A	Northwestern vs Kentucky	-7.5	50.5	W 24 - 23

(#38) UTAH at (#66) NW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UTAH	NW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#38	#66
SP+SP+	#35	#71
Perf GradeGrade	#73	#82
OffenseOff	#80	#109
DefenseDef	#64	#34
Spec TeamsST	#61	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#27	#49

Utah Injury Report

Northwestern Injury Report

Utah on Offense


CategoryCat	UTAH Off	NW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#80	#34
SuccessSuc	#89	#83
ExplosiveExp	#118	#6
PPAPPA	#112	#33
PowerPwr	#97	#66
SP+SP+	#60	#30
Pts POPPO	#107	#56
HavocHav	#28	#115

Utah Run Game


CategoryCat	UTAH Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#47	#32
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#73
Run ExplRExp	#63	#31
PPAExp	#82	#36
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#72	#73
Stuff RateStuff	#82	#84
TackleTak	-	#40

Utah Pass Game


CategoryCat	UTAH Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#104	#31
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#94
Pass ExplPExl	#114	#9
PPAExp	#117	#39
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#132	#122
F7 HavocF7	#37	#105
DB HavocDB	#38	#101

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTAH Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#64
SuccessSuc	#110	#16
ExplosiveExp	#108	#117
PPAPPA	#113	#38
PowerPwr	#79	#37
SP+SP+	#104	#26
Pts POPPO	#48	#45
HavocHav	#67	#53

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTAH Def
Run GameRun	#126	#64
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#30
Run ExplRExp	#128	#77
PPAExp	#120	#37
Run BlockR Blk	#92	-
OL YdsOLY	#129	#39
Stuff RateStuff	#129	#25
TackleTak	-	#18

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	UTAH Def
Pass GamePass	#86	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#102	#9
Pass ExplPExl	#62	#99
PPAExp	#100	#20
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#101	#73
F7 HavocF7	#88	#41
DB HavocDB	#23	#77

Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

UTAH 5 Year Profile: Declining Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Utah 6.5 (44.5)
Northwestern won vs Utah this year (14-7)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Utah in 2023 (14-7)

UTAH's OC Andy Ludwig (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryson Barnes	142	242	59%	1572	12	11	6.5
Nate Johnson	39	72	54%	499	3	0	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Quinden Jackson	161	797	4	5.0	54
Jaylon Glover	137	562	2	4.1	30
Sione Vaki	42	317	2	7.5	72
Bryson Barnes	89	277	3	3.1	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devaughn Vele	43	593	3	13.8	68
Money Parks	31	293	2	9.5	70
Munir McClain	15	269	2	17.9	49
Mikey Matthews	29	261	0	9.0	40

View Utah's Full Roster

UTAH's DC Morgan Scalley (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Levani Damuni (Tr)	88	3	1	0
Karene Reid	67	2	0	4
Cole Bishop	60	7	3	3
Zemaiah Vaughn	53	5	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonah Elliss	37	16	12	3	3
Connor O'Toole	31	6	5	0	3
Van Fillinger	31	6	4	0	0
Logan Fano (Tr)	14	4	4	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Zemaiah Vaughn	53	5	1	6
Tao Johnson	33	2	0	5
Karene Reid	67	2	0	4

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ben Bryant	173	277	63%	1807	13	6	6.5
Brendan Sullivan	63	99	64%	714	6	2	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Porter	166	651	4	3.9	34
Anthony Tyus III	50	238	1	4.8	39
Brendan Sullivan	75	160	2	2.1	35
Joseph Himon II	35	136	0	3.9	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)	54	715	6	13.2	52
Bryce Kirtz	49	701	5	14.3	80
A.J. Henning (Tr)	45	418	4	9.3	41
Joseph Himon II	18	219	1	12.2	85

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Bryce Gallagher	113	4	1	2
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	2
Rod Heard	82	4	1	4
Devin Turner	75	1	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aidan Hubbard	26	9	6	2	1
Anto Saka	13	6	6	1	0
Xander Mueller	103	10	5	0	2
Jaylen Pate	22	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Theran Johnson	35	2	0	0	5
Sean McLaughlin	18	2	1	3	5
Rod Heard	82	4	1	0	4