Penn State at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo (#2)Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -27 (48.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Penn State 41 - Northwestern: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 36 - 14 (34 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NW 2nd straight Home Game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -21.5   (SP+ PSU -27.5)

Projected Score: PSU: 35 - NW: 14 (49)
PSU Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
PSU Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 22 - 23 (28 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Northwestern at Rutgers+5.039.0L 7 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Northwestern vs UTEP-1.040.0W 38 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Northwestern at Duke+17.048.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/23 Northwestern vs Minnesota+11.539.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 Northwestern vs Penn State+27.048.0L 13 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 Northwestern vs Howard-23.051.0W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Northwestern at Nebraska+10.540.0L 9 - 17UY
Sat 10/28 Northwestern vs Maryland+14.048.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Northwestern vs Iowa+4.530.5L 7 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Northwestern at Wisconsin+9.543.5W 24 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-2.547.5W 23 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Northwestern at Illinois+5.046.5W 45 - 43OY
Sat 12/23 Northwestern vs Utah+6.544.5W 14 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#40 (.25)46% (25)36.249% (17)3.38 (14)18543% (53)2154.96 (5)#8 (.04)33% (3)13.531% (3)36% (10)3.09 (15)43.30.61.8
NW#113 (.1)38% (110)22.139% (109)2.63 (129)10238% (102)2024.11 (48)#33 (.14)43% (83)22.543% (73)44% (94)3.65 (56)42.60.71.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#11 (.32)51% (4)52% (9)3.42 (10)17651% (4)2094.69 (9)#9 (.05)38% (21)39% (27)37% (25)3.22 (18)41.40.81.3
NW#129 (.02)37% (123)39% (113)2.63 (124)9936% (116)1863.02 (127)#57 (.15)45% (106)44% (80)46% (117)3.74 (64)38.81.51.3



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense1336.233.546.3%4.960.6234001852154.750%49%49%43%11%.25
NW Defense1322.52443.1%3.651.8 - - - - - 54%45%43%44%14%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1313.515.333.1%3.091.8 - - - - - 49%50%31%36%23%.04
NW Offense1322.127.838.3%4.110.7173041022022.949%51%39%38%16%.1

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1332:3022.541%77%543.30.61.87.83.8333.8
Northwestern1328:3416.840%21%5.342.60.71.84.21.9029.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1350% (65)49% (17)39.6184.84.726 (30).19 (46)3.38 (14)73% (77)7% (8)0.85 (123)
NW Defense1354% (115)43% (73) - - - - .09 (36)3.12 (73)69% (43)9% (105)0.92 (31)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1349% (52)31% (3) - - - - -.04 (7)2.23 (2)76% (89)18% (1)0.96 (46)
NW Offense1349% (79)39% (109)35.2101.92.913 (108).05 (120)2.63 (129)70% (97)11% (88)0.83 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349% (63)43% (53)18.931.72156.811.430 (16)2 (1).3 (62)1.5 (115)27% (9)35% (23).38 (50)4% (7)1.7 (129)
NW Defense1345% (20)44% (94) - - - - - - 13 (26).22 (39)1.4 (9)29% (123)32% (102).31 (68)5% (101)1.8 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1350% (77)36% (10) - - - - - - 12 (37).2 (25)1.7 (94)39% (2)26% (19).21 (21)6% (86)2.1 (74)
NW Offense1351% (51)38% (102)18.529.92026.810.920 (70)8 (30).18 (100)1.6 (62)35% (116)29% (84).36 (59)5% (23)2.2 (25)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Northwestern: -1.4




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 36.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.5
Defense: 13.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.3

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 35
Northwestern 14


Total Points: 49

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 22.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Northwestern13Penn State41Penn StatePenn State -27Penn State48.0Over
202210/01Penn State17Northwestern7Penn StatePenn State -25.5Northwestern50.0Under
201710/07Northwestern7Penn State31Penn StatePenn State -14.5Penn State51.5Under
201511/07Northwestern23Penn State21NorthwesternNorthwestern -2Push41.0Over
201409/27Penn State6Northwestern29NorthwesternPenn State -9Northwestern0
201210/06Penn State39Northwestern28Penn State
201110/22Northwestern24Penn State34Penn State
201011/06Penn State35Northwestern21Penn State
200910/31Northwestern13Penn State34Penn State
200609/30Penn State33Northwestern7Penn State
200509/24Northwestern29Penn State34Penn State
200411/06Penn State7Northwestern14Northwestern
200311/08Northwestern17Penn State7Northwestern
200210/19Penn State49Northwestern0Penn State
200110/20Northwestern35Penn State38Penn State
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern422 Overs
Penn State1122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 80 - 40 - 20 - 2
Road Teams8 - 74 - 02 - 02 - 0

(#5) Penn State Info
Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70


Penn State has won 4 straight
Penn State has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 1 (3 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Penn State Highlights
Penn State has Really Good Running Game (#38)
Penn State offense is efficent (#25)
Penn State has a top Offensive Line (#13)
Penn State offense is good in red zone (#42)
Penn State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#3)

Penn State Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Penn State has a really good defense (#6)
Penn State defense is really good in red zone (#5)
Penn State has a good run defense (#42)
Penn State has a good pass defense (#2)
Penn State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#50)
Penn State Defensive Line is very good (#12)
Penn State Front 7 is disruptive (#28)
Penn State has a great TO Margin (#11)

Penn State Deficiencies
Penn State offense is not Explosive (#114)
Penn State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#8)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNWPSU
OverallOver#67#5
OffenseOff#92#24
DefenseDef#28#4
Special TeamsST#57#8
PassingPass#72#27
RushingRush#92#19
Run BlockRBLK#69#13
Pass BlockPBLK#85#52
Route RunningWR Rt#79#68
TacklingTkl#35#31
Run DefenseR Def#28#4
Pass Rush DefPRush#90#1
Coverage DefCov#26#16

Rematch from Week 5
Penn State 27.0 (48.0)
Penn State won at Northwestern this year (41-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | NW
Depth Chart: PSU | NW
Rosters: PSU | NW
(#66) Northwestern Info
Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90


Northwestern has won 1 straight
Northwestern has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 1 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Northwestern Highlights
Northwestern defense does not give up big plays (#66)
Northwestern has a great TO Margin (#131)
Northwestern defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#56)

Northwestern Deficiencies
Northwestern Can Not Run the Ball (#51)
Northwestern offense is really bad (#69)
Northwestern offense is not Explosive (#115)
Northwestern Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#61)
Northwestern run game is really bad (#53)
Northwestern pass game is really bad (#70)


  
Penn State's OC Mike Yurcich
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster
Penn State's DC Manny Diaz
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Bryant17327763%18071366.5
Brendan Sullivan639964%714627.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter16665143.934
Anthony Tyus III5023814.839
Brendan Sullivan7516022.135
Joseph Himon II3513603.932
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)54715613.252
Bryce Kirtz49701514.380
A.J. Henning (Tr)4541849.341
Joseph Himon II18219112.285

View Northwestern's Full Roster
Northwestern's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Gallagher1134102
Xander Mueller10310502
Rod Heard824104
Devin Turner751004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard269621
Anto Saka136610
Xander Mueller10310502
Jaylen Pate223300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson352005
Sean McLaughlin182135
Rod Heard824104