Penn State at Northwestern Game Matchup

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -27 (48.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Penn State 41 - Northwestern: 13 (Big Ten)

Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 33 - 17 (34 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NW 2nd straight Home Game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -21.5 (SP+ PSU -27.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 35 - NW: 13 (47)
PSU Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
PSU Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 18 - 26 (18 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PSU Players
NW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Penn State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Penn State vs West Virginia	-21.0	48.0	W 38 - 15	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Penn State vs Delaware	-44.0	55.0	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Penn State at Illinois	-14.0	47.5	W 30 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Penn State vs Iowa	-14.0	38.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Penn State at Northwestern	-27.0	48.0	W 41 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Penn State vs Massachusetts	-42.0	55.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Penn State at Ohio State	+4.0	47.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/28	Penn State vs Indiana	-31.0	45.0	W 33 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/4	Penn State at Maryland	-8.5	50.5	W 51 - 15	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Penn State vs Michigan	+4.0	44.5	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Penn State vs Rutgers	-19.5	39.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Penn State vs Michigan State	-20.0	42.0	W 42 - 0	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Penn State vs Ole Miss	-5.5	53.0	L 25 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule

Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Northwestern at Rutgers	+5.0	39.0	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/9	Northwestern vs UTEP	-1.0	40.0	W 38 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Northwestern at Duke	+17.0	48.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+11.5	39.5	W 37 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Northwestern vs Penn State	+27.0	48.0	L 13 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Northwestern vs Howard	-23.0	51.0	W 23 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Northwestern at Nebraska	+10.5	40.0	L 9 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Northwestern vs Maryland	+14.0	48.5	W 33 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Northwestern vs Iowa	+4.5	30.5	L 7 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+9.5	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Northwestern vs Purdue	-2.5	47.5	W 23 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Northwestern at Illinois	+5.0	46.5	W 45 - 43	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Northwestern vs Utah	+6.5	44.5	W 14 - 7	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU	.26	43%	33.1	41%	3.03	181	46%	253	4.61	.08	38%	16.5	43%	36%	3.39	48.3	1.1	2.7
NW	.01	37%	17.8	38%	2.63	125	38%	210	2.67	.17	45%	26.3	46%	44%	4.03	40.8	2.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Offense	13	33.1	34	43.4%	4.61	1.1	21	434	181	253	4.8	51%	49%	41%	46%	13%	.26
NW Defense	12	26.3	26.3	45.1%	4.03	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	59%	41%	46%	44%	13%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PSU Defense	13	16.5	18	38.5%	3.39	2.7	-	-	-	-	-	41%	59%	43%	36%	25%	.08
NW Offense	12	17.8	17.8	37.2%	2.67	2.5	19	335	125	210	3.2	51%	47%	38%	38%	18%	.01

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Penn State	13	30:33	21.2	38%	70%	5.3	48.3	1.1	2.7	7.8	3.2	2	30.1
Northwestern	12	29:01	19	37%	49%	4.6	40.8	2.5	1.5	4.5	1.9	0	26.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Offense	13	51%	41%	37.6	181.1	4.8	28	.18	3.03	75%	8%	1.17
NW Defense	12	59%	46%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.16	74%	8%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PSU Defense	13	41%	43%	-	-	-	-	.13	2.66	72%	15%	0.99
NW Offense	12	51%	38%	39.1	125.1	3.2	11	-.04	2.63	67%	9%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Offense	13	49%	46%	20.8	32.5	252.5	7.8	12.2	29	7	.34	1.6	30%	33%	.42	5%	2.1
NW Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.22	1.3	29%	29%	.16	4%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PSU Defense	13	59%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.06	1.5	37%	29%	.29	11%	2.1
NW Offense	12	47%	38%	20.4	34.8	210.3	6.1	10.3	10	17	.15	1.4	33%	21%	.04	9%	1.9

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
2023 Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44 Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0 Northwestern: -1.4

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
2023 Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Penn State Scoring
Offense: 33.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Penn State 35
Northwestern 13

Projected Total Points: 47

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 26.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.3

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/30	Northwestern	13	Penn State	41	Penn State	Penn State -27	Penn State	48.0	Over
2022	10/01	Penn State	17	Northwestern	7	Penn State	Penn State -25.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2017	10/07	Northwestern	7	Penn State	31	Penn State	Penn State -14.5	Penn State	51.5	Under
2015	11/07	Northwestern	23	Penn State	21	Northwestern	Northwestern -2	Push	41.0	Over
2014	09/27	Penn State	6	Northwestern	29	Northwestern	Penn State -9	Northwestern	0
2012	10/06	Penn State	39	Northwestern	28	Penn State
2011	10/22	Northwestern	24	Penn State	34	Penn State
2010	11/06	Penn State	35	Northwestern	21	Penn State
2009	10/31	Northwestern	13	Penn State	34	Penn State
2006	09/30	Penn State	33	Northwestern	7	Penn State
2005	09/24	Northwestern	29	Penn State	34	Penn State
2004	11/06	Penn State	7	Northwestern	14	Northwestern
2003	11/08	Northwestern	17	Penn State	7	Northwestern
2002	10/19	Penn State	49	Northwestern	0	Penn State
2001	10/20	Northwestern	35	Penn State	38	Penn State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northwestern	4	2	2 Overs
Penn State	11	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 8	0 - 4	0 - 2	0 - 2
Road Teams	8 - 7	4 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0

(#5) Penn State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 20.44 #5
Offense Rating: 21.10 #31
Defense Rating: -3.87 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #4
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5 #4
Talent Rating: 1046.00 #11
Blue Chip Ratio: 57% #13
Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70

Team Profile

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Penn State Ratings Matchup Northwestern

Power #5

#66

Off #31

#79

Def #2

#66

Talent #11

#54

SP+ #4

#71

SP+ Off #26

#104

SP+ Def #4

#30

Rematch from Week 5
Penn State 27.0 (48.0)
Penn State won at Northwestern this year (41-13)

Previous Matchups
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2022 (17-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 76° - Wind: 9 mph

Team Information
Injuries: PSU | NW
Depth Chart: PSU | NW
Rosters: PSU | NW

(#66) Northwestern Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.52 #66
Offense Rating: 15.21 #79
Defense Rating: 9.49 #66
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4 #71
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #104
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #30
Talent Rating: 682.00 #54
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #49
Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90

Team Profile

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Penn State's OC Mike Yurcich

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tyler Warren	3	6	50%	35	1	0	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
London Montgomery	71	359	2	5.1	48
Tyler Warren	26	218	4	8.4	48
Cristian Driver	2	9	0	4.5	5
Alex Bacchetta	1	-19	0	-19.0	0

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler Warren	104	1233	8	11.9	38
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Dante Cephas (Tr)	15	184	0	12.3	35
Malick Meiga	7	117	0	16.7	46

View Penn State's Full Roster

Penn State's DC Manny Diaz

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Dvon Ellies	31	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Amin Vanover	21	5	4	3	1
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Kobe King	87	8	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Abdul Carter	62	24	12	9	4
Jaylen Reed	95	7	3	1	2
Tyler Elsdon	23	0	0	0	2

Northwestern's OC Mike Bajakian

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendan Sullivan	38	53	72%	474	3	3	8.9
Ryan Hilinski	9	15	60%	121	0	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Tyus III	237	1215	9	5.1	46
Brendan Sullivan	47	151	4	3.2	30
Jacob Gill	5	13	0	2.6	9
A.J. Henning (Tr)	5	8	0	1.6	9

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
A.J. Henning (Tr)	59	603	4	10.2	46
Bryce Kirtz	39	598	0	15.3	55
Jacob Gill	35	411	2	11.7	59
Thomas Gordon	27	252	1	9.3	26

View Northwestern's Full Roster

Northwestern's DC Vacant

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Nigel Williams	53	0	0	0	2
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Jaheem Joseph	42	1	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reginald Pearson	21	4	2	0	0
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4
Grayson Metz	32	2	1	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Garnett Hollis Jr.	46	1	0	0	6
Xander Mueller	57	5	1	1	4
Rod Heard	37	2	1	1	4