Penn State at Northwestern - 2023 Matchup Preview
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Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats

Northwestern logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Penn State -27 (48.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Penn State 41 - Northwestern: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Nittany Lions (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach James Franklin (81 - 36)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NW 2nd straight Home Game
NW is playing their 5th straight game
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -21.5  (SP+ PSU -27.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 35 - NW: 13 (48)
PSU Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
PSU Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach David Braun (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 6.9 (#73)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Penn State vs West Virginia-21.048.0W 38 - 15OY
Sat 9/9 Penn State vs Delaware-44.055.0W 63 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Penn State at Illinois-14.047.5W 30 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 Penn State vs Iowa-14.038.5W 31 - 0UY
Sat 9/30 Penn State at Northwestern-27.048.0W 41 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Penn State vs Massachusetts-42.055.0W 63 - 0OY
Sat 10/21 Penn State at Ohio State+4.047.0L 12 - 20UN
Sat 10/28 Penn State vs Indiana-31.045.0W 33 - 24ON
Sat 11/4 Penn State at Maryland-8.550.5W 51 - 15OY
Sat 11/11 Penn State vs Michigan+4.044.5L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Penn State vs Rutgers-19.539.5W 27 - 6UY
Fri 11/24 Penn State vs Michigan State-20.042.0W 42 - 0UY
Sat 12/30 Penn State vs Ole Miss-5.553.0L 25 - 38ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sun 9/3 Northwestern at Rutgers+5.039.0L 7 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Northwestern vs UTEP-1.040.0W 38 - 7OY
Sat 9/16 Northwestern at Duke+17.048.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 9/23 Northwestern vs Minnesota+11.539.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 9/30 Northwestern vs Penn State+27.048.0L 13 - 41ON
Sat 10/7 Northwestern vs Howard-23.051.0W 23 - 20UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Northwestern at Nebraska+10.540.0L 9 - 17UY
Sat 10/28 Northwestern vs Maryland+14.048.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Northwestern vs Iowa+4.530.5L 7 - 10UY
Sat 11/11 Northwestern at Wisconsin+9.543.5W 24 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Northwestern vs Purdue-2.547.5W 23 - 15UY
Sat 11/25 Northwestern at Illinois+5.046.5W 45 - 43OY
Sat 12/23 Northwestern vs Utah+6.544.5W 14 - 7UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU.2643%3141%3.0318146%2534.61.0838%20.543%36%3.3948.31.12.7
NW.0137%23.438%2.6312538%2102.67.1745%19.846%44%4.0340.82.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.643.4%4.611.1214341812534.851%49%41%46%13%.26
NW Defense1219.812.445.1%4.031.5 - - - - - 59%41%46%44%13%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.238.5%3.392.7 - - - - - 41%59%43%36%25%.08
NW Offense1223.426.837.2%2.672.5193351252103.251%47%38%38%18%.01

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1330:3321.238%70%5.348.31.12.77.83.2230.1
Northwestern1229:011937%49%4.640.82.51.54.51.9026.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1351%41%37.6181.14.828.183.0375%8%1.17
NW Defense1259%46% - - - - .163.1674%8%0.92
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1341%43% - - - - .132.6672%15%0.99
NW Offense1251%38%39.1125.13.211-.042.6367%9%0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1349%46%20.832.5252.57.812.2297.341.630%33%.425%2.1
NW Defense1241%44% - - - - - - 6.221.329%29%.164%1.7
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1359%36% - - - - - - 14.061.537%29%.2911%2.1
NW Offense1247%38%20.434.8210.36.110.31017.151.433%21%.049%1.9

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.44  #5
Penn State's Offense Rating: 21.10  #31
Penn State's Defense Rating: -3.87  #2
2023 Talent Rating: 858.06  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #13
Penn State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Penn State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0  #4
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1  #26
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 9.5  #4

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 20.44   Northwestern: 1.52

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 26.0   Northwestern: -1.4




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 1.52  #66
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 15.21  #79
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 9.49  #66
2023 Talent Rating: 657.88  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #49
Northwestern's 2023 Expected Record: 6.10 - 6.90
Northwestern's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4  #71
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #104
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 35
Northwestern 13

Projected Total Points: 48
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Penn State21Northwestern22Penn State -20.5Northwestern46.5Under
202309/30Northwestern13Penn State41Penn State -27Penn State48.0Over
202210/01Penn State17Northwestern7Penn State -25.5Northwestern50.0Under
201710/07Northwestern7Penn State31Penn State -14.5Penn State51.5Under
201511/07Northwestern23Penn State21Northwestern -2Push41.0Over
201409/27Penn State6Northwestern29Penn State -9Northwestern0
201210/06Penn State39Northwestern28
201110/22Northwestern24Penn State34
201011/06Penn State35Northwestern21
200910/31Northwestern13Penn State34
200609/30Penn State33Northwestern7
200509/24Northwestern29Penn State34
200411/06Penn State7Northwestern14
200311/08Northwestern17Penn State7
200210/19Penn State49Northwestern0
200110/20Northwestern35Penn State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern532 Overs
Penn State1123 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 90 - 50 - 30 - 2
Road Teams9 - 75 - 02 - 03 - 0

(#5) PSU at (#66) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #5 #66
SP+SP+ #4 #71
Perf GradeGrade #6 #82
OffenseOff #27 #109
DefenseDef #4 #34
Spec TeamsST #8 #71
TalentTal #13 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #13 #49
Penn State on Offense
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #27 #34
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #31 #66
SP+SP+ #26 #30
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Penn State Run Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
Run GameRun #27 #32
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #14 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #40
Penn State Pass Game
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePass #34 #31
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #60 #122
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Northwestern on Offense
CategoryCatNW OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #109 #4
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #79 #2
SP+SP+ #104 #4
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Northwestern Run Game
CategoryCat
NW OffPSU Def
Run GameRun #126 #6
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #92 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #34
Northwestern Pass Game
CategoryCatNW OffPSU Def
Pass GamePass #86 #19
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #101 #1
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'23 Profile: Up to Top G5

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ryan Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Penn State 27.0 (48.0)
Penn State won at Northwestern this year (41-13)

Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Penn State last year (22-21)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)

  
PSU's OC Mike Yurcich (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Allar23338860%26312526.8
Beau Pribula112152%149407.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kaytron Allen17290265.250
Nicholas Singleton17175284.424
Beau Pribula5632965.939
Drew Allar7421042.824
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert53673412.772
Tyler Warren34422712.475
Theo Johnson34341710.034
Nicholas Singleton26308211.853

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC Manny Diaz (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Kobe King596210
Curtis Jacobs509350
Abdul Carter496555
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Adisa Isaac3716840
Abdul Carter496555
John Dixon266503
Demeioun Robinson158451
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daequan Hardy223107
Kevin Winston Jr.603005
Abdul Carter496555

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Bryant17327763%18071366.5
Brendan Sullivan639964%714627.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Porter16665143.934
Anthony Tyus III5023814.839
Brendan Sullivan7516022.135
Joseph Himon II3513603.932
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Johnson (Tr)54715613.252
Bryce Kirtz49701514.380
A.J. Henning (Tr)4541849.341
Joseph Himon II18219112.285

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Gallagher1134102
Xander Mueller10310502
Rod Heard824104
Devin Turner751004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Hubbard269621
Anto Saka136610
Xander Mueller10310502
Jaylen Pate223300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Theran Johnson352005
Sean McLaughlin182135
Rod Heard824104