Auburn at Arkansas - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (4:00 PM EST)
Arkansas -2.5 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Auburn 48 - Arkansas: 10 (SEC)

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (24 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB 2nd straight Road Game
AUB is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Auburn -1.5 (SP+ AUB -5.5)
Projected Score: AUB: 24 - ARK: 22 (46)
ARK Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
AUB Travel: 550 miles

Razorbacks (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Sam Pittman (21 - 18)
Avg Score : 27 - 28 (22 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 6 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
ARK Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Arkansas's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas vs Western Carolina	-38.0	61.0	W 56 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Arkansas vs Kent State	-38.0	57.5	W 28 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Arkansas vs BYU	-9.0	48.0	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/23	Arkansas at LSU	+17.5	55.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	+6.5	53.5	L 22 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/7	Arkansas at Ole Miss	+13.0	61.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas at Alabama	+19.0	45.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Arkansas vs Mississippi State	-6.5	46.5	L 3 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Arkansas at Florida	+4.5	50.0	W 39 - 36	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Arkansas vs Auburn	-2.5	46.5	L 10 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas vs Florida International	-27.5	49.5	W 44 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/24	Arkansas vs Missouri	+9.5	53.5	L 14 - 48	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#93 (.14)	41% (80)	26.2	45% (44)	3.01 (86)	189	37% (110)	162	3.99 (58)	#48 (.15)	40% (42)	22.6	43% (72)	37% (20)	3.65 (56)	43.8	1.5	1.4
ARK	#75 (.18)	39% (105)	26.6	43% (74)	3.3 (34)	139	36% (112)	188	4.22 (35)	#42 (.14)	39% (40)	27.9	41% (48)	39% (29)	3.93 (79)	55.4	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1
ARK	#27 (.25)	48% (13)		52% (5)	3.23 (38)	168	44% (41)	248	3.95 (64)	#45 (.13)	42% (66)		39% (32)	44% (100)	3.31 (22)	56.3	1.7	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	13	26.2	24.2	41.3%	3.99	1.5	19	351	189	162	4.8	56%	43%	45%	37%	16%	.14
ARK Defense	12	27.9	27.8	39.5%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	39%	18%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	13	22.6	22	40%	3.65	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	37%	17%	.15
ARK Offense	12	26.6	21.7	39.3%	4.22	1.5	17	327	139	188	3.5	52%	47%	43%	36%	20%	.18

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	13	29:03	18.5	33%	50%	5.5	43.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2.1	2	29.4
Arkansas	12	30:43	17.3	38%	63%	6.3	55.4	1.5	1.5	6.3	2.4	5	27.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	13	56% (20)	45% (44)	39.5	189	4.8	22 (51)	.19 (47)	3.01 (86)	74% (69)	11% (85)	1.02 (58)
ARK Defense	12	53% (108)	41% (48)	-	-	-	-	.07 (27)	2.95 (41)	70% (45)	11% (29)	0.9 (29)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	13	52% (103)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.13 (63)	2.95 (40)	86% (126)	10% (57)	0.94 (39)
ARK Offense	12	52% (48)	43% (74)	39.3	139	3.5	9 (128)	.15 (70)	3.3 (34)	84% (5)	15% (130)	0.89 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	13	43% (114)	37% (110)	14.5	24.4	162.2	6.7	11.2	18 (81)	13 (97)	.12 (120)	1.6 (74)	32% (76)	25% (117)	.14 (121)	5% (41)	1.9 (112)
ARK Defense	12	46% (29)	39% (29)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (65)	1.9 (130)	32% (62)	27% (27)	.3 (61)	7% (42)	2.3 (129)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	13	47% (30)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (33)	1.8 (125)	35% (22)	31% (79)	.29 (57)	7% (49)	2.2 (97)
ARK Offense	12	47% (86)	36% (112)	17.3	26.9	187.5	7	10.9	22 (61)	8 (30)	.24 (80)	1.8 (14)	34% (97)	27% (98)	.39 (49)	5% (32)	2.4 (3)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 6.28 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 6.28 Arkansas: 5.49

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 8.1 Arkansas: 2.7

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: 5.49 #47
Arkansas's Offense Rating: 16.54 #65
Arkansas's Defense Rating: 8.58 #55
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 30 #25
Arkansas's 2023 Expected Record: 6.00 - 6.00
Arkansas's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.7 #58
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #57
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.2
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 22

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 24
Arkansas 22

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas 20
Auburn 20

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 27
Arkansas 23

Total Points: 50

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 26.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 27.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Arkansas's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Arkansas	24	Auburn	33	Arkansas -2.5	Auburn	55.5	Over
2024	09/21	Auburn	14	Arkansas	24	Auburn -2.5	Arkansas	53.5	Under
2023	11/11	Arkansas	10	Auburn	48	Arkansas -2.5	Auburn	46.5	Over
2022	10/29	Auburn	27	Arkansas	41	Arkansas -4	Arkansas	60.0	Over
2021	10/16	Arkansas	23	Auburn	38	Arkansas -4.5	Auburn	54.0	Over
2020	10/10	Auburn	30	Arkansas	28	Auburn -13.5	Arkansas	46.0	Over
2019	10/19	Arkansas	10	Auburn	51	Auburn -20.5	Auburn	56.0	Over
2018	09/22	Auburn	34	Arkansas	3	Auburn -30	Auburn	57.5	Under
2017	10/21	Arkansas	20	Auburn	52	Auburn -17	Auburn	51.0	Over
2016	10/22	Auburn	56	Arkansas	3	Auburn -17	Auburn	53.0	Over
2015	10/24	Arkansas	54	Auburn	46	Arkansas -4	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2014	08/30	Auburn	45	Arkansas	21	Auburn -21	Auburn	0
2013	11/02	Arkansas	17	Auburn	35	Auburn -8	Auburn	0
2012	10/06	Auburn	7	Arkansas	24
2011	10/08	Arkansas	38	Auburn	14
2010	10/16	Auburn	65	Arkansas	43
2009	10/10	Arkansas	44	Auburn	23
2008	10/11	Auburn	22	Arkansas	25
2007	10/13	Arkansas	7	Auburn	9
2006	10/07	Auburn	10	Arkansas	27
2005	10/15	Arkansas	17	Auburn	34
2004	10/16	Auburn	38	Arkansas	20
2003	10/11	Arkansas	3	Auburn	10
2002	10/12	Auburn	17	Arkansas	38
2001	10/27	Arkansas	42	Auburn	17
2000	10/27	Auburn	21	Arkansas	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Arkansas	10	4	9 Overs
Auburn	16	9	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 15	4 - 9	4 - 5	0 - 4
Road Teams	15 - 11	9 - 4	4 - 0	5 - 4

(#32) AUB at (#47) ARK

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	ARK
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#32	#47
SP+SP+	#36	#58
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#65
OffenseOff	#94	#75
DefenseDef	#18	#58
Spec TeamsST	#46	#51
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#15	#25

Auburn Injury Report

Arkansas Injury Report

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARK Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#94	#58
SuccessSuc	#80	#40
ExplosiveExp	#100	#95
PPAPPA	#93	#42
PowerPwr	#70	#55
SP+SP+	#65	#69
Pts POPPO	#58	#79
HavocHav	#70	#28

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	#46	#91
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#48
Run ExplRExp	#58	#29
PPAExp	#47	#27
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#41
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#53
TackleTak	-	#19

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#46
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#29
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#130
PPAExp	#120	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#64	#47
F7 HavocF7	#85	#29
DB HavocDB	#41	#42

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#75	#18
SuccessSuc	#105	#42
ExplosiveExp	#80	#84
PPAPPA	#75	#48
PowerPwr	#65	#44
SP+SP+	#57	#24
Pts POPPO	#35	#56
HavocHav	#120	#51

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#101	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	#74	#72
Run ExplRExp	#115	#39
PPAExp	#70	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	#34	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#51
TackleTak	-	#21

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#69	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#112	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#14	#125
PPAExp	#80	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#102	#81
F7 HavocF7	#130	#57
DB HavocDB	#32	#49

Program Comparison
ARK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 63° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Arkansas -2.5 (46.5)
Auburn won at Arkansas this year (48-10)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Auburn last year (24-14)
Auburn beat Arkansas in 2023 (48-10)
Arkansas beat Auburn in 2022 (41-27)

AUB's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)	162	265	61%	1755	16	10	6.6
Robby Ashford	14	27	52%	145	2	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	159	909	7	5.7	67
Payton Thorne (Tr)	134	515	3	3.8	61
Damari Alston	64	320	2	5.0	56
Brian Battie (Tr)	51	227	1	4.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)	38	394	6	10.4	53
Ja'Varrius Johnson	19	347	3	18.3	45
Jay Fair	31	324	2	10.5	36
Caleb Burton (Tr)	16	226	0	14.1	53

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Larry Nixon III (Tr)	50	3	0	2	0
Keionte Scott	42	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Harris	40	11	7	1	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Cam Riley	31	4	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
D.J. James	38	4	0	9
Kayin Lee	19	2	1	6
Keionte Scott	42	2	2	5

ARK's OC Kenny Guiton (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
KJ Jefferson	190	296	64%	2107	19	8	7.1
Jacolby Criswell	17	27	63%	143	3	0	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
KJ Jefferson	161	447	2	2.8	26
AJ Green	67	312	2	4.7	55
Rashod Dubinion	82	260	1	3.2	15
Raheim Sanders	62	209	2	3.4	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Andrew Armstrong (Tr)	56	764	5	13.6	48
Isaac Teslaa (Tr)	34	351	2	10.3	36
Luke Hasz	16	253	3	15.8	59
Jaedon Wilson	15	199	2	13.3	65

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC Travis Williams (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Chris Paul Jr.	74	7	2	1	1
Jayden Johnson	61	2	0	1	3
Al Walcott	56	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Landon Jackson	45	14	7	2	1
Trajan Jeffcoat (Tr)	16	9	4	5	0
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)	89	6	3	5	2
Keivie Rose (Tr)	15	4	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Jaylon Braxton	21	0	0	8
Dwight McGlothern	20	3	0	6
Lorando Johnson (Tr)	29	4	1	5