Ole Miss at Auburn - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Ole Miss -6.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 28 - Auburn: 21 (SEC)

Rebels (11 - 2) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (26 - 13)
Avg Score : 35 - 23 (22 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 4.9 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MISS coming off BYE
Our Line: Ole Miss -4 (SP+ MISS -8)
Projected Score: MISS: 29 - AUB: 25 (53)
MISS Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
MISS Travel: 263 miles

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (29 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ole Miss vs Mercer	-35.0	59.5	W 73 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Ole Miss at Tulane	-8.0	64.0	W 37 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech	-17.0	61.5	W 48 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ole Miss at Alabama	+7.0	56.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ole Miss vs LSU	+3.0	67.0	W 55 - 49	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-13.0	61.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Ole Miss at Auburn	-6.5	55.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-24.0	62.0	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	-3.0	52.5	W 38 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/11	Ole Miss at Georgia	+11.0	59.0	L 17 - 52	O	N
Sat 11/18	Ole Miss vs UL Monroe	-35.5	59.5	W 35 - 3	U	N
Thu 11/23	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	-11.0	56.0	W 17 - 7	U	N
Sat 12/30	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	35.1	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	22.5	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4
AUB	#93 (.14)	41% (80)	26.2	45% (44)	3.01 (86)	189	37% (110)	162	3.99 (58)	#48 (.15)	40% (42)	22.6	43% (72)	37% (20)	3.65 (56)	43.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	#4 (.34)	47% (19)		44% (76)	3.02 (72)	164	51% (3)	317	4 (58)	#6 (.04)	35% (3)		35% (6)	36% (13)	2.98 (8)	68.5	0.9	1.6
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	13	35.1	21.8	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28
AUB Defense	13	22.6	21.9	40%	3.65	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	37%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	13	22.5	24.8	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18
AUB Offense	13	26.2	29.4	41.3%	3.99	1.5	19	351	189	162	4.8	56%	43%	45%	37%	16%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29
Auburn	13	29:03	18.5	33%	50%	5.5	43.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2.1	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)
AUB Defense	13	52% (103)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.13 (63)	2.95 (40)	86% (126)	10% (57)	0.94 (39)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)
AUB Offense	13	56% (20)	45% (44)	39.5	189	4.8	22 (51)	.19 (47)	3.01 (86)	74% (69)	11% (85)	1.02 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)
AUB Defense	13	47% (30)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (33)	1.8 (125)	35% (22)	31% (79)	.29 (57)	7% (49)	2.2 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)
AUB Offense	13	43% (114)	37% (110)	14.5	24.4	162.2	6.7	11.2	18 (81)	13 (97)	.12 (120)	1.6 (74)	32% (76)	25% (117)	.14 (121)	5% (41)	1.9 (112)

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 11.28 #18
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 22.85 #22
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 8.12 #47
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 36% #21
Ole Miss's 2023 Expected Record: 8.10 - 4.90
Ole Miss's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 16.0 #14
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.7 #21
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #21

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 11.28 Auburn: 9.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 16.0 Auburn: 8.1

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.8
Defense: 22.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.8

Ole Miss's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 29
Auburn 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Auburn 27
Ole Miss 23

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Auburn 26
Ole Miss 25

Total Points: 51

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.9

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/21	Auburn	21	Ole Miss	28	Ole Miss -6.5	Ole Miss	55.5	Under
2022	10/15	Ole Miss	48	Auburn	34	Ole Miss -15.5	Auburn	55.5	Over
2021	10/30	Auburn	31	Ole Miss	20	Auburn -3	Auburn	67.5	Under
2020	10/24	Ole Miss	28	Auburn	35	Auburn -3.5	Auburn	74.0	Under
2019	11/02	Auburn	20	Ole Miss	14	Auburn -17	Ole Miss	53.5	Under
2018	10/20	Ole Miss	16	Auburn	31	Auburn -5	Auburn	64.0	Under
2017	10/07	Auburn	44	Ole Miss	23	Auburn -21.5	Ole Miss	55.5	Over
2016	10/29	Ole Miss	29	Auburn	40	Auburn -2	Auburn	65.5	Over
2015	10/31	Auburn	19	Ole Miss	27	Ole Miss -6	Ole Miss	57.5	Under
2014	11/01	Ole Miss	31	Auburn	35	Ole Miss -3	Auburn	0
2013	10/05	Auburn	30	Ole Miss	22	Ole Miss -2	Auburn	0
2012	10/13	Ole Miss	41	Auburn	20
2011	10/29	Auburn	41	Ole Miss	23
2010	10/30	Ole Miss	31	Auburn	51
2009	10/31	Auburn	33	Ole Miss	20
2008	11/01	Ole Miss	17	Auburn	7
2007	10/27	Auburn	17	Ole Miss	3
2006	10/28	Ole Miss	17	Auburn	23
2005	10/29	Auburn	27	Ole Miss	3
2004	10/30	Ole Miss	14	Auburn	35
2003	11/08	Auburn	20	Ole Miss	24
2002	11/02	Ole Miss	24	Auburn	31
2001	09/08	Auburn	27	Ole Miss	21
2000	09/08	Ole Miss	27	Auburn	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	18	7	3 Overs
Ole Miss	6	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 12	2 - 9	1 - 4	1 - 5
Road Teams	12 - 12	9 - 2	5 - 1	4 - 1

(#18) MISS at (#32) AUB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	AUB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#18	#32
SP+SP+	#14	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#47
OffenseOff	#18	#94
DefenseDef	#60	#18
Spec TeamsST	#11	#46
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#21	#15

Ole Miss Injury Report

Auburn Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	AUB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#18	#18
SuccessSuc	#44	#42
ExplosiveExp	#26	#84
PPAPPA	#30	#48
PowerPwr	#22	#44
SP+SP+	#21	#24
Pts POPPO	#13	#56
HavocHav	#60	#51

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#7	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#72
Run ExplRExp	#44	#39
PPAExp	#60	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#83	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#51
TackleTak	-	#21

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#6	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#125
PPAExp	#17	#33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#87	#81
F7 HavocF7	#80	#57
DB HavocDB	#22	#49

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#94	#60
SuccessSuc	#80	#62
ExplosiveExp	#100	#69
PPAPPA	#93	#68
PowerPwr	#70	#47
SP+SP+	#65	#21
Pts POPPO	#58	#55
HavocHav	#70	#33

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#46	#82
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#74
Run ExplRExp	#58	#58
PPAExp	#47	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#105
TackleTak	-	#38

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#74
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#79
PPAExp	#120	#59
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#64	#40
F7 HavocF7	#85	#30
DB HavocDB	#41	#43

Program Comparison
AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 67° - Wind: 7 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Ole Miss 6.5 (55.5)
Ole Miss won at Auburn this year (28-21)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Auburn in 2023 (28-21)
Ole Miss beat Auburn in 2022 (48-34)

MISS's OC John David Baker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	233	359	65%	3364	23	5	9.4
Spencer Sanders (Tr)	19	29	66%	278	3	0	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinshon Judkins	271	1158	15	4.3	40
Ulysses Bentley IV	95	540	4	5.7	43
Jaxson Dart	119	391	8	3.3	68
Matt Jones	12	79	2	6.6	36

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris (Tr)	54	985	8	18.2	56
Dayton Wade	55	830	4	15.1	58
Jordan Watkins	53	741	3	14.0	68
Caden Prieskorn (Tr)	30	449	4	15.0	37

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Washington	83	2	0	0	2
Ashanti Cistrunk (Tr)	71	5	3	1	0
John Saunders Jr.	65	2	0	1	4
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	0	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jared Ivey	46	12	6	4	2
Cedric Johnson	40	7	6	12	3
Suntarine Perkins	38	6	4	1	1
Isaac Ukwu (Tr)	30	5	4	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daijahn Anthony	61	3	0	8
Zamari Walton (Tr)	38	4	0	6
Deantre Prince	36	5	1	5

AUB's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)	162	265	61%	1755	16	10	6.6
Robby Ashford	14	27	52%	145	2	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	159	909	7	5.7	67
Payton Thorne (Tr)	134	515	3	3.8	61
Damari Alston	64	320	2	5.0	56
Brian Battie (Tr)	51	227	1	4.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)	38	394	6	10.4	53
Ja'Varrius Johnson	19	347	3	18.3	45
Jay Fair	31	324	2	10.5	36
Caleb Burton (Tr)	16	226	0	14.1	53

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Larry Nixon III (Tr)	50	3	0	2	0
Keionte Scott	42	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Harris	40	11	7	1	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Cam Riley	31	4	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
D.J. James	38	4	0	9
Kayin Lee	19	2	1	6
Keionte Scott	42	2	2	5