Auburn at LSU - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
LSU -11 (60.0) (0) Open: 0.0
LSU 48 - Auburn: 18 (SEC)

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB coming off BYE
LSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: LSU -13 (SP+ LSU -11)
Projected Score: AUB: 20 - LSU: 33 (54)
LSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
AUB Travel: 368 miles

Tigers (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brian Kelly (12 - 5)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (26 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#16)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
LSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

LSU's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	LSU vs Florida State	-2.0	56.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/9	LSU vs Grambling	-56.5	61.5	W 72 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	LSU at Mississippi State	-9.5	54.0	W 41 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	LSU vs Arkansas	-17.5	55.0	W 34 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/30	LSU at Ole Miss	-3.0	67.0	L 49 - 55	O	N
Sat 10/7	LSU at Missouri	-6.0	63.5	W 49 - 39	O	Y
Sat 10/14	LSU vs Auburn	-11.0	60.0	W 48 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/21	LSU vs Army	-33.0	60.0	W 62 - 0	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	LSU at Alabama	+3.0	61.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/11	LSU vs Florida	-14.0	68.5	W 52 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/18	LSU vs Georgia State	-32.5	73.5	W 56 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/25	LSU vs Texas A&M	-10.5	67.5	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Mon 1/1	LSU vs Wisconsin	-9.5	59.5	W 35 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	.2	39%	26.8	43%	3.01	206	33%	173	3.74	.18	42%	20.7	49%	36%	4.57	57.3	1.8	1.5
LSU	.33	51%	22.8	55%	3.63	184	48%	269	4.6	.16	41%	19.8	45%	37%	3.34	52.1	1.4	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	12	26.8	27.2	39%	3.74	1.8	18	379	206	173	5.1	59%	40%	43%	33%	19%	.2
LSU Defense	14	19.8	16.9	40.8%	3.34	2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	45%	37%	15%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	12	20.7	26.6	42.2%	4.57	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	49%	36%	15%	.18
LSU Offense	14	22.8	25.7	51.3%	4.6	1.4	25	453	184	269	5	47%	53%	55%	48%	13%	.33

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	12	30:13	18.1	36%	59%	7.5	57.3	1.8	1.5	5.2	2.2	1	29.3
LSU	14	31:01	24.6	49%	50%	6	52.1	1.4	2	4.8	1.9	2	27.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	12	59%	43%	40.7	205.8	5.1	25	.25	3.01	86%	13%	1.24
LSU Defense	14	49%	45%	-	-	-	-	.14	2.9	74%	10%	0.93

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	12	49%	49%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.14	76%	10%	1
LSU Offense	14	47%	55%	37	183.8	5	39	.35	3.63	80%	9%	0.99

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	12	40%	33%	13.3	25.7	172.7	6.7	13	9	12	.14	1.8	37%	27%	.25	5%	2.2
LSU Defense	14	51%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.17	1.7	32%	32%	.38	5%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	12	51%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.13	1.5	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.1
LSU Offense	14	53%	48%	23	34.3	269.3	7.9	11.7	23	7	.32	1.4	27%	35%	.43	4%	2

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 6.28 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 770.94 #18
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 6.28 LSU: 20.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 8.1 LSU: 18.7

LSU's Power Ratings
LSU's Power Rating: 20.385 #8
LSU's Offense Rating: 35.07 #1
LSU's Defense Rating: 15.64 #122
2023 Talent Rating: 899.31 #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 70 #7
LSU's 2023 Expected Record: 9.70 - 3.30
LSU's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.7 #10
LSU's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.1 #2
LSU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.4 #55

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
LSU 33
Auburn 20

Projected Total Points: 54

LSU Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.9

LSU's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 12 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	LSU	48	Auburn	18	LSU -11	LSU	60.0	Over
2022	10/01	Auburn	17	LSU	21	LSU -8	Auburn	44.5	Under
2021	10/02	LSU	19	Auburn	24	LSU -2.5	Auburn	57.0	Under
2020	10/31	Auburn	48	LSU	11	LSU -2.0	Auburn	63.5	Under
2019	10/26	LSU	23	Auburn	20	LSU -11.5	Auburn	59.5	Under
2018	09/15	Auburn	21	LSU	22	Auburn -10	LSU	45.5	Under
2017	10/14	LSU	27	Auburn	23	Auburn -6.5	LSU	46.0	Over
2016	09/24	Auburn	18	LSU	13	LSU -4	Auburn	46.5	Under
2015	09/19	LSU	45	Auburn	21	LSU -6.5	LSU	50.0	Over
2014	10/04	Auburn	41	LSU	7	Auburn -9	Auburn	0
2013	09/21	LSU	35	Auburn	21	LSU -14	Push	0
2012	09/22	Auburn	10	LSU	12
2011	10/22	LSU	45	Auburn	10
2010	10/23	Auburn	24	LSU	17
2009	10/24	LSU	31	Auburn	10
2008	09/20	Auburn	21	LSU	26
2007	10/20	LSU	30	Auburn	24
2006	09/16	Auburn	7	LSU	3
2005	10/22	LSU	20	Auburn	17
2004	09/18	Auburn	10	LSU	9
2003	10/25	LSU	31	Auburn	7
2002	10/26	Auburn	31	LSU	7
2001	12/01	LSU	27	Auburn	14
2000	09/15	Auburn	34	LSU	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
LSU	15	4	3 Overs
Auburn	9	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	19 - 5	7 - 3	3 - 3	4 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 19	3 - 7	0 - 4	3 - 3

(#32) AUB at (#8) LSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	LSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#32	#8
SP+SP+	#36	#10
Perf GradeGrade	#47	#11
OffenseOff	#94	#2
DefenseDef	#18	#53
Spec TeamsST	#46	#102
TalentTal	#18	#7
Blue ChipsBC%	#15	#7

Auburn Injury Report

LSU Injury Report

Auburn on Offense


CategoryCat	AUB Off	LSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#94	#53
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#70	#122
SP+SP+	#65	#55
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Auburn Run Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	LSU Def
Run GameRun	#46	#49
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#64	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#17

Auburn Pass Game


CategoryCat	AUB Off	LSU Def
Pass GamePass	#91	#95
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#64	#30
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

LSU on Offense


CategoryCat	LSU Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#2	#18
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#1	#44
SP+SP+	#2	#24
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

LSU Run Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#1	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#7	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#21

LSU Pass Game


CategoryCat	LSU Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#81
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Tiger Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
LSU -11.0 (60.0)
LSU won vs Auburn this year (48-18)

Previous Matchups
LSU beat Auburn in 2023 (48-18)

AUB's OC Philip Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)	162	265	61%	1755	16	10	6.6
Robby Ashford	14	27	52%	145	2	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	159	909	7	5.7	67
Payton Thorne (Tr)	134	515	3	3.8	61
Damari Alston	64	320	2	5.0	56
Brian Battie (Tr)	51	227	1	4.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)	38	394	6	10.4	53
Ja'Varrius Johnson	19	347	3	18.3	45
Jay Fair	31	324	2	10.5	36
Caleb Burton (Tr)	16	226	0	14.1	53

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC Ron Roberts (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Larry Nixon III (Tr)	50	3	0	2	0
Keionte Scott	42	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Harris	40	11	7	1	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Cam Riley	31	4	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
D.J. James	38	4	0	9
Kayin Lee	19	2	1	6
Keionte Scott	42	2	2	5

LSU's OC Mike Denbrock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Daniels	236	327	72%	3812	40	4	11.7
Garrett Nussmeier	48	78	62%	592	4	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Daniels	135	1134	10	8.4	85
Logan Diggs (Tr)	119	653	7	5.5	35
Josh Williams	55	284	5	5.2	41
Noah Cain	37	181	3	4.9	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Nabers	89	1569	14	17.6	51
Brian Thomas Jr.	68	1177	17	17.3	86
Kyren Lacy	30	558	7	18.6	57
Mason Taylor	36	348	1	9.7	25

View LSU's Full Roster

LSU's DC Matt House (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Major Burns	90	4	1	2	3
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Andre Sam (Tr)	82	1	0	0	2
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4
Mehki Wingo	25	5	5	0	0
Greg Penn III	89	7	4	1	1
Ovie Oghoufo (Tr)	33	4	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zy Alexander (Tr)	44	0	0	0	7
Sage Ryan	41	4	0	0	5
Harold Perkins	74	13	6	6	4