Massachusetts at Auburn - 2023 Matchup Preview

Massachusetts Minutemen at Auburn Tigers

Saturday, September 2nd 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Auburn -35 (52.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Auburn 59 - Massachusetts: 14

Minutemen (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Don Brown (2 - 14)
Avg Score : 23 - 38 (20 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Auburn -24 (SP+ AUB -26)
Projected Score: UMASS: 15 - AUB: 39 (54)
AUB Win prob: 99% | Cover: 47%
UMASS Travel: 978 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Tigers (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 23 (29 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UMASS Players
AUB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Massachusetts's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Massachusetts at New Mexico State	+7.0	45.5	W 41 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/2	Massachusetts at Auburn	+35.0	52.0	L 14 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/9	Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)	+7.0	45.0	L 28 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/16	Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan	+7.0	50.0	L 17 - 19	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Massachusetts vs New Mexico	-3.5	48.5	L 31 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	Massachusetts vs Arkansas State	-2.5	55.5	L 28 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/7	Massachusetts vs Toledo	+19.0	55.5	L 24 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Massachusetts at Penn State	+42.0	55.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Massachusetts at Army	+10.0	49.5	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Massachusetts vs Merrimack	-16.5	57.5	W 31 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	Massachusetts at Liberty	+26.5	64.5	L 25 - 49	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Massachusetts vs UConn	-2.5	51.0	L 18 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule

Auburn's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Auburn vs Massachusetts	-35.0	52.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Auburn at California	-5.0	55.5	W 14 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/16	Auburn vs Samford	-37.5	62.0	W 45 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/23	Auburn at Texas A&M	+9.5	51.0	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/30	Auburn vs Georgia	+14.0	44.5	L 20 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Auburn at LSU	+11.0	60.0	L 18 - 48	O	N
Sat 10/21	Auburn vs Ole Miss	+6.5	55.5	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	Auburn vs Mississippi State	-6.5	40.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Auburn at Vanderbilt	-12.5	50.0	W 31 - 15	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Auburn at Arkansas	+2.5	46.5	W 48 - 10	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Auburn vs New Mexico State	-25.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	Auburn vs Alabama	+14.0	48.0	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/30	Auburn vs Maryland	-4.0	47.5	L 13 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#72 (.18)	42% (68)	23.2	45% (47)	3.35 (21)	142	40% (86)	214	3.73 (82)	#124 (.31)	49% (132)	37.8	53% (131)	43% (92)	4.31 (114)	70.9	1.4	1.2
AUB	#93 (.14)	41% (80)	26.2	45% (44)	3.01 (86)	189	37% (110)	162	3.99 (58)	#48 (.15)	40% (42)	22.6	43% (72)	37% (20)	3.65 (56)	43.8	1.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8
AUB	#42 (.24)	45% (40)		48% (21)	3.32 (23)	166	42% (67)	264	3.42 (110)	#21 (.09)	38% (20)		38% (19)	38% (34)	3.35 (25)	49.3	1.8	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Offense	12	23.2	19.7	42%	3.73	1.4	18	356	142	214	4.4	51%	48%	45%	40%	21%	.18
AUB Defense	13	22.6	21.9	40%	3.65	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	37%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UMASS Defense	12	37.8	39	48.5%	4.31	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	58%	42%	53%	43%	15%	.31
AUB Offense	13	26.2	29.4	41.3%	3.99	1.5	19	351	189	162	4.8	56%	43%	45%	37%	16%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Massachusetts	12	29:45	17.8	36%	23%	8	70.9	1.4	1.2	4.5	1.5	2	26.5
Auburn	13	29:03	18.5	33%	50%	5.5	43.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2.1	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense	12	51% (59)	45% (47)	32.5	142.2	4.4	19 (69)	.25 (18)	3.35 (21)	62% (125)	14% (127)	1.14 (11)
AUB Defense	13	52% (103)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.13 (63)	2.95 (40)	86% (126)	10% (57)	0.94 (39)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense	12	58% (130)	53% (131)	-	-	-	-	.34 (131)	3.83 (133)	85% (123)	9% (89)	1 (69)
AUB Offense	13	56% (20)	45% (44)	39.5	189	4.8	22 (51)	.19 (47)	3.01 (86)	74% (69)	11% (85)	1.02 (58)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense	12	48% (76)	40% (86)	17.7	29	214.1	7.4	12.1	14 (106)	11 (68)	.18 (99)	1.5 (85)	32% (62)	33% (50)	.43 (35)	7% (109)	2.2 (36)
AUB Defense	13	47% (30)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (33)	1.8 (125)	35% (22)	31% (79)	.29 (57)	7% (49)	2.2 (97)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense	12	42% (4)	43% (92)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (100)	.31 (94)	1.8 (122)	29% (121)	37% (125)	.47 (124)	6% (90)	1.9 (30)
AUB Offense	13	43% (114)	37% (110)	14.5	24.4	162.2	6.7	11.2	18 (81)	13 (97)	.12 (120)	1.6 (74)	32% (76)	25% (117)	.14 (121)	5% (41)	1.9 (112)

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Massachusetts's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Massachusetts's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -11.09 Auburn: 9.69

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -17.7 Auburn: 8.1

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Auburn's Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Auburn's Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Auburn's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
Auburn's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Massachusetts's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Auburn 39
Massachusetts 15

Total Points: 54

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.4
Defense: 22.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.9

Auburn's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/02	Auburn	59	Massachusetts	14	Auburn	Auburn -35	Auburn	52.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Auburn	1	1	1 Overs
Massachusetts	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#121) Massachusetts Info
Power Rating: -11.09 #121
Offense Rating: 17.17 #59
Defense Rating: 18.87 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.4 #124
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Record on Road: 2 - 4 (4 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Massachusetts Highlights
Massachusetts has a top Offensive Line (#124)
Massachusetts does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#124)

Massachusetts Deficiencies
Massachusetts Commits a Lot of Penalties (#49)
Massachusetts Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Massachusetts does not Sack the QB (#97)
Massachusetts has a bad defense (#87)
Massachusetts Does Not Stuff Runs (#133)
Massachusetts has a bad defensive line (#126)
Massachusetts has a bad red zone defense (#98)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	AUB	UMASS
OverallOver	#39	#111
OffenseOff	#81	#83
DefenseDef	#14	#108
Special TeamsST	#39	#111
PassingPass	#76	#90
RushingRush	#31	#42
Run BlockRBLK	#51	#64
Pass BlockPBLK	#56	#68
Route RunningWR Rt	#102	#71
TacklingTkl	#19	#96
Run DefenseR Def	#18	#111
Pass Rush DefPRush	#64	#85
Coverage DefCov	#14	#109

Rematch from Week 1
Auburn -35.0 (52.0)
Auburn won vs Massachusetts this year (59-14)

Previous Matchups
Auburn beat Massachusetts in 2023 (59-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jordan-Hare Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UMASS | AUB
Depth Chart: UMASS | AUB
Rosters: UMASS | AUB

(#32) Auburn Info
Power Rating: 9.69 #32
Offense Rating: 16.07 #70
Defense Rating: 7.76 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0 #24
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 52 #15
Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70

Record at home: 3 - 4 (4 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Auburn Highlights
Auburn has Really Good Running Game (#11)
Auburn has a good pass defense (#64)

Auburn Deficiencies
Auburn offense is not Explosive (#125)
Auburn pass game is really bad (#25)
Auburn offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Massachusetts's OC Steve Casula

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh (Tr)	139	227	61%	1507	6	6	6.6
Carlos Davis (Tr)	62	101	61%	886	6	3	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	236	1157	12	4.9	47
Gregory DeRosiers	37	301	4	8.1	60
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	11	93	1	8.5	17
Ahmad Haston	16	54	0	3.4	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Simpson (Tr)	57	792	3	13.9	71
George Johnson	35	421	3	12.0	32
Mark Pope (Tr)	33	420	1	12.7	54
Gino Campiotti	21	289	4	13.8	30

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

Massachusetts's DC Keith Dudzinski

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Te'Rai Powell	59	1	0	2	3
Nahji Logan	59	3	1	1	1
Gerrell Johnson	51	2	0	0	0
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Billy Wooden	50	11	6	7	1
JB Brown (Tr)	38	5	3	4	1
Derrieon Craig	24	5	2	1	1
Zukudo Igwenagu	29	3	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Juan Lua	23	0	0	0	5
Tyler Rudolph	40	2	1	1	4
Dashaun Jerkins (Tr)	31	0	0	1	4

Auburn's OC Philip Montgomery

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne (Tr)	162	265	61%	1755	16	10	6.6
Robby Ashford	14	27	52%	145	2	2	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	159	909	7	5.7	67
Payton Thorne (Tr)	134	515	3	3.8	61
Damari Alston	64	320	2	5.0	56
Brian Battie (Tr)	51	227	1	4.5	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rivaldo Fairweather (Tr)	38	394	6	10.4	53
Ja'Varrius Johnson	19	347	3	18.3	45
Jay Fair	31	324	2	10.5	36
Caleb Burton (Tr)	16	226	0	14.1	53

View Auburn's Full Roster

Auburn's DC Ron Roberts

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Larry Nixon III (Tr)	50	3	0	2	0
Keionte Scott	42	2	0	2	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Harris	40	11	7	1	1
Jalen McLeod (Tr)	50	11	6	5	1
Eugene Asante	86	9	5	5	1
Cam Riley	31	4	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
D.J. James	38	4	0	9
Kayin Lee	19	2	1	6
Keionte Scott	42	2	2	5