Wisconsin at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview
Wisconsin logo   Wisconsin Badgers at Purdue Boilermakers  Purdue logo
Friday, September 22nd 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -5.5 (54.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Wisconsin 38 - Purdue: 17  (Big Ten)

 
Badgers (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 13 - 22 (9 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 4.1 (#29)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PUR 2nd straight Home Game
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
WIS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -11.5  (SP+ WIS -17.5)
Projected Score: WIS: 30 - PUR: 19 (49)
WIS Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
WIS Travel: 223 miles, 1 hrs behind
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Wisconsin's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Wisconsin vs Buffalo-29.052.5W 38 - 17ON
Sat 9/9 Wisconsin at Washington State-5.058.0L 22 - 31UN
Sat 9/16 Wisconsin vs Georgia Southern-20.565.5W 35 - 14UY
Fri 9/22 Wisconsin at Purdue-5.554.0W 38 - 17OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Wisconsin vs Rutgers-12.544.0W 24 - 13UN
Sat 10/14 Wisconsin vs Iowa-8.033.5L 6 - 15UN
Sat 10/21 Wisconsin at Illinois-3.040.5W 25 - 21OY
Sat 10/28 Wisconsin vs Ohio State+14.548.0L 10 - 24UY
Sat 11/4 Wisconsin at Indiana-9.545.0L 14 - 20UN
Sat 11/11 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.543.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/18 Wisconsin vs Nebraska-7.536.5W 24 - 17ON
Sat 11/25 Wisconsin at Minnesota-1.542.0W 28 - 14UY
Mon 1/1 Wisconsin vs LSU+9.559.5L 31 - 35OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS.1642%12.845%3.0718038%1844.33.0736%21.635%39%3.6157.81.41.6
PUR.1544%18.847%312143%2783.52.1641%31.842%41%4.3853.41.61.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Offense1312.8942.2%4.331.4183641801844.759%40%45%38%15%.16
PUR Defense1431.83040.8%4.381.7 - - - - - 50%49%42%41%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WIS Defense1321.626.236.4%3.611.6 - - - - - 49%49%35%39%19%.07
PUR Offense1418.820.943.7%3.521.6233991212783.641%58%47%43%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wisconsin1331:0817.940%47%6.257.81.41.66.22.5230.1
Purdue1431:512338%55%5.353.41.61.74.31.9328.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Offense1359%45%38.5179.84.721.173.0776%10%0.96
PUR Defense1450%42% - - - - .123.0471%9%0.93
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WIS Defense1349%35% - - - - -.022.5765%11%0.86
PUR Offense1441%47%33.4121.13.617.09379%6%0.76

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Offense1340%38%14.525.1183.87.312.72111.181.730%27%.216%2.2
PUR Defense1449%41% - - - - - - 15.281.630%23%.097%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WIS Defense1349%39% - - - - - - 17.191.636%27%.217%2
PUR Offense1458%43%26.341.5278.26.710.62617.241.430%28%.187%1.8

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 7.64  #28
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 16.47  #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 4.78  #26
2023 Talent Rating: 741.63  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 22%  #31
Wisconsin's 2023 Expected Record: 8.90 - 4.10
Wisconsin's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9  #28
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1  #90
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.7  #6

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 7.64   Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wisconsin: 9.9   Purdue: -7.4




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56  #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07  #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70  #83
2023 Talent Rating: 671.10  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4  #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 12.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9
Defense: 21.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.2

Wisconsin's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 30
Purdue 19

Projected Total Points: 49
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Wisconsin52Purdue6Wisconsin -12Wisconsin44.5Over
202309/22Purdue17Wisconsin38Wisconsin -5.5Wisconsin54.0Over
202210/22Wisconsin35Purdue24Wisconsin -1.5Wisconsin51.5Over
202110/23Purdue13Wisconsin30Wisconsin -3.5Wisconsin41.0Over
201911/23Wisconsin45Purdue24Wisconsin -24.5Purdue49.0Over
201811/17Purdue44Wisconsin47Purdue -3.5Wisconsin56.0Over
201710/14Wisconsin17Purdue9Wisconsin -17Purdue49.5Under
201611/19Purdue20Wisconsin49Wisconsin -26.5Wisconsin48.5Over
201510/17Wisconsin24Purdue7Wisconsin -20.5Purdue51.5Under
201411/08Purdue16Wisconsin34Wisconsin -15.5Wisconsin0
201309/21Wisconsin41Purdue10Wisconsin -23Wisconsin0
201210/13Purdue14Wisconsin38
201111/05Wisconsin62Purdue17
201011/06Purdue13Wisconsin34
200910/31Wisconsin37Purdue0
200610/21Purdue3Wisconsin24
200510/22Wisconsin31Purdue20
200410/16Purdue17Wisconsin20
200310/18Wisconsin23Purdue26
200010/20Wisconsin24Purdue30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue237 Overs
Wisconsin1882 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 113 - 83 - 40 - 4
Road Teams11 - 98 - 34 - 04 - 3

(#28) WIS at (#81) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWISPUR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #28 #81
SP+SP+ #28 #90
Perf GradeGrade #55 #115
OffenseOff #72 #105
DefenseDef #29 #114
Spec TeamsST #53 #56
TalentTal #30 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #31 #37
Wisconsin on Offense
CategoryCat
WIS OffPUR Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #114
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #67 #83
SP+SP+ #90 #72
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Wisconsin Run Game
CategoryCat
WIS OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #97 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #33 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #43
Wisconsin Pass Game
CategoryCat
WIS OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #55 #134
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #53
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Purdue on Offense
CategoryCatPUR OffWIS Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #29
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #90 #26
SP+SP+ #89 #6
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Purdue Run Game
CategoryCat
PUR OffWIS Def
Run GameRun #74 #38
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #22
Purdue Pass Game
CategoryCatPUR OffWIS Def
Pass GamePass #72 #50
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #59
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

WIS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Wisconsin 5.5 (54.0)
Wisconsin won at Purdue this year (38-17)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2024 (52-6)
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2023 (38-17)

  
WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)20431465%2065946.6
Braedyn Locke (Tr)7615250%778515.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braelon Allen181984125.452
Jackson Acker7232224.533
Chez Mellusi5130746.089
Tanner Mordecai (Tr)9030343.419
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Pauling (Tr)74837611.353
Bryson Green (Tr)32480215.054
Chimere Dike19328117.341
Skyler Bell3829717.830

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Colin Hitschler (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler1206146
Jake Chaney807310
Jordan Turner617332
Maema Njongmeta599351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darryl Peterson4710542
C.J. Goetz5911452
James Thompson Jr.296312
Jordan Turner617332
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler1206146
Ricardo Hallman343005
Alexander Smith273105

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)21536559%23871586.5
Ryan Browne121675%104026.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee17280764.765
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11371686.362
Dylan Downing4821114.425
Hudson Card (Tr)9320352.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deion Burks47629713.484
TJ Sheffield32381211.943
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen25329013.230
Garrett Miller3024328.128

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1062012
Sanoussi Kane796127
Kydran Jenkins5615881
Yanni Karlaftis553300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway4915933
Kydran Jenkins5615881
O.C. Brothers206313
Yanni Karlaftis553300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sanoussi Kane796127
Marquis Wilson (Tr)200006
Cam Allen301006