Purdue at Iowa - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 7th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -2.5 (38.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa 20 - Purdue: 14 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IOWA 2nd straight Home Game
IOWA is playing their 6th straight game
PUR is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -11.5 (SP+ IOWA -16)
Projected Score: PUR: 16 - IOWA: 27 (43)
IOWA Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
PUR Travel: 256 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
IOWA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Purdue vs Fresno State	-4.0	47.0	L 35 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/9	Purdue at Virginia Tech	+1.5	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Purdue vs Syracuse	+1.0	56.5	L 20 - 35	U	N
Fri 9/22	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Purdue vs Illinois	-1.0	54.0	W 44 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Purdue at Iowa	+2.5	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Purdue vs Ohio State	+17.5	53.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Purdue at Nebraska	-1.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/4	Purdue at Michigan	+32.5	52.5	L 13 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Purdue vs Minnesota	+1.5	48.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+2.5	47.5	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Purdue vs Indiana	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	.15	44%	18.8	47%	3	121	43%	278	3.52	.16	41%	31.8	42%	41%	4.38	53.4	1.6	1.7
IOWA		36%	29.3	38%	2.45	95	35%	157	2.76	-.05	34%	16.1	38%	32%	2.75	32.3	1.3	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IOWA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	14	18.8	15.8	43.7%	3.52	1.6	23	399	121	278	3.6	41%	58%	47%	43%	13%	.15
IOWA Defense	13	16.1	13.7	34.4%	2.75	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	38%	32%	17%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	14	31.8	34.4	40.8%	4.38	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	16%	.16
IOWA Offense	13	29.3	28.3	35.8%	2.76	1.3	14	252	95	157	2.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	18%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	14	31:51	23	38%	55%	5.3	53.4	1.6	1.7	4.3	1.9	3	28.5
Iowa	13	28:16	13.8	28%	33%	4.1	32.3	1.3	2.2	6.1	2.6	4	31.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	14	41%	47%	33.4	121.1	3.6	17	.09	3	79%	6%	0.76
IOWA Defense	13	49%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.57	74%	11%	0.76

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	14	50%	42%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.04	71%	9%	0.93
IOWA Offense	13	49%	38%	32.5	94.9	2.9	12	-.05	2.45	63%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	14	58%	43%	26.3	41.5	278.2	6.7	10.6	26	17	.24	1.4	30%	28%	.18	7%	1.8
IOWA Defense	13	49%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	-.01	1.4	34%	22%	-.02	6%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	14	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.28	1.6	30%	23%	.09	7%	2.1
IOWA Offense	13	51%	35%	14.8	26.8	156.7	5.8	10.6	7	7	.06	1.5	36%	22%	.08	5%	2

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.72 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 671.10 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -2.72 Iowa: 6.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.4 Iowa: 8.1

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 692.62 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 27
Purdue 16

Projected Total Points: 43

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 12
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/07	Iowa	20	Purdue	14	Iowa -2.5	Iowa	38.5	Under
2022	11/05	Purdue	3	Iowa	24	Purdue -3.5	Iowa	39.5	Under
2021	10/16	Iowa	7	Purdue	24	Iowa -11	Purdue	42.5	Under
2020	10/24	Purdue	24	Iowa	20	Iowa -3.5	Purdue	52.0	Under
2019	10/19	Iowa	26	Purdue	20	Iowa -17.5	Purdue	47.5	Under
2018	11/03	Purdue	38	Iowa	36	Purdue -1.5	Purdue	51.5	Over
2017	11/18	Iowa	15	Purdue	24	Iowa -6	Purdue	42.5	Under
2016	10/15	Purdue	35	Iowa	49	Iowa -13	Iowa	52.5	Over
2015	11/21	Iowa	40	Purdue	20	Iowa -24	Purdue	54.5	Over
2014	09/27	Purdue	10	Iowa	24	Iowa -13.5	Iowa	0
2013	11/09	Purdue	14	Iowa	38	Iowa -14	Iowa	0
2012	11/10	Iowa	24	Purdue	27
2011	11/19	Purdue	21	Iowa	31
2008	11/15	Iowa	22	Purdue	17
2007	10/20	Purdue	31	Iowa	6
2006	10/07	Iowa	47	Purdue	17
2005	10/08	Purdue	17	Iowa	34
2004	11/06	Iowa	23	Purdue	21
2003	11/08	Purdue	27	Iowa	14
2002	10/05	Iowa	31	Purdue	28
2001	10/06	Purdue	23	Iowa	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa	13	5	3 Overs
Purdue	8	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 9	3 - 8	2 - 5	1 - 3
Road Teams	9 - 12	8 - 3	3 - 1	5 - 2

(#81) PUR at (#61) IOWA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	IOWA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#81	#61
SP+SP+	#90	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#115	#53
OffenseOff	#105	#134
DefenseDef	#114	#4
Spec TeamsST	#56	#5
TalentTal	#48	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	#37	#38

Purdue Injury Report

Iowa Injury Report

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	IOWA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#90	#3
SP+SP+	#89	#2
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#74	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#3

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#42
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa on Offense


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#114
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#133	#83
SP+SP+	#127	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa Run Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#134	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#43

Iowa Pass Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#53
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 6
Iowa -2.5 (38.5)
Iowa won vs Purdue this year (20-14)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Purdue in 2023 (20-14)

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card (Tr)	215	365	59%	2387	15	8	6.5
Ryan Browne	12	16	75%	104	0	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	172	807	6	4.7	65
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	113	716	8	6.3	62
Dylan Downing	48	211	1	4.4	25
Hudson Card (Tr)	93	203	5	2.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Burks	47	629	7	13.4	84
TJ Sheffield	32	381	2	11.9	43
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen	25	329	0	13.2	30
Garrett Miller	30	243	2	8.1	28

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	106	2	0	1	2
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	49	15	9	3	3
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
O.C. Brothers	20	6	3	1	3
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Marquis Wilson (Tr)	20	0	0	0	6
Cam Allen	30	1	0	0	6

IOWA's OC Brian Ferentz (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deacon Hill (Tr)	122	251	49%	1152	5	8	4.6
Cade McNamara (Tr)	46	90	51%	505	4	3	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Leshon Williams	170	821	1	4.8	82
Kaleb Johnson	117	463	3	4.0	67
Jaziun Patterson	58	206	2	3.6	59
Kamari Moulton	27	93	2	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erick All (Tr)	21	299	3	14.2	34
Nico Ragaini	31	255	0	8.2	29
Kaleb Brown	22	215	1	9.8	31
Addison Ostrenga	31	192	2	6.2	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	171	5	2	3	3
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Quinn Schulte	65	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Yahya Black	50	5	4	2	4
Logan Lee	55	6	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermari Harris	42	1	0	0	8
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5