Minnesota at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview
Minnesota logo   Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers  Purdue logo
Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Minnesota -1.5 (48.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Purdue 49 - Minnesota: 30  (Big Ten)

 
Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (8 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MINN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Purdue -0  (SP+ MINN -6)
Projected Score: MINN: 24 - PUR: 24 (48)
MINN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
MINN Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs behind
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (21 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Minnesota vs Nebraska-7.543.0W 13 - 10UN
Sat 9/9 Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan-19.548.0W 25 - 6UN
Sat 9/16 Minnesota at North Carolina+7.051.0L 13 - 31UN
Sat 9/23 Minnesota at Northwestern-11.539.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 9/30 Minnesota vs Louisiana-9.549.0W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/7 Minnesota vs Michigan+18.546.0L 10 - 52ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21 Minnesota at Iowa+3.030.5W 12 - 10UY
Sat 10/28 Minnesota vs Michigan State-6.541.5W 27 - 12UY
Sat 11/4 Minnesota vs Illinois-1.543.0L 26 - 27ON
Sat 11/11 Minnesota at Purdue-1.548.5L 30 - 49ON
Sat 11/18 Minnesota at Ohio State+27.551.5L 3 - 37UN
Sat 11/25 Minnesota vs Wisconsin+1.542.0L 14 - 28UN
Tue 12/26 Minnesota vs Bowling Green-2.545.0W 30 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN.2448%2349%3.320748%1824.36.1237%22.938%36%2.8431.811.6
PUR.1544%18.847%312143%2783.52.1641%31.842%41%4.3853.41.61.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MINN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PUR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Offense13238.347.8%4.361223902071824.664%35%49%48%12%.24
PUR Defense1431.83040.8%4.381.7 - - - - - 50%49%42%41%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MINN Defense1322.93836.7%2.841.6 - - - - - 47%52%38%36%13%.12
PUR Offense1418.820.943.7%3.521.6233991212783.641%58%47%43%13%.15

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Minnesota1334:2821.552%55%3.531.811.63.31.5129.6
Purdue1431:512338%55%5.353.41.61.74.31.9328.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Offense1364%49%44.8207.44.633.223.385%7%0.9
PUR Defense1450%42% - - - - .123.0471%9%0.93
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MINN Defense1347%38% - - - - .092.9976%7%0.99
PUR Offense1441%47%33.4121.13.617.09379%6%0.76

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Offense1335%48%13.221.6182.28.413.8129.371.528%40%.455%1.7
PUR Defense1449%41% - - - - - - 15.281.630%23%.097%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MINN Defense1352%36% - - - - - - 14.171.537%25%.216%1.8
PUR Offense1458%43%26.341.5278.26.710.62617.241.430%28%.187%1.8

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -4.18  #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36  #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35  #99
2023 Talent Rating: 640.46  #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3  #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9  #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6  #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -4.18   Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -1.3   Purdue: -7.4




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56  #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07  #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70  #83
2023 Talent Rating: 671.10  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4  #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense on Road: 8.3
Defense: 22.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 38

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Minnesota 24
Purdue 24

Projected Total Points: 48
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.9
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Minnesota27Purdue20Minnesota -7.5Purdue49.5Under
202311/11Purdue49Minnesota30Minnesota -1.5Purdue48.5Over
202210/01Minnesota10Purdue20Minnesota -9.0Purdue53.0Under
202110/02Purdue13Minnesota20Purdue -2Minnesota46.0Under
202011/20Minnesota34Purdue31Purdue -2.5Minnesota60.5Over
201909/28Purdue31Minnesota38Purdue -2Minnesota57.0Over
201811/10Minnesota41Purdue10Purdue -10.5Minnesota58.0Under
201710/07Purdue31Minnesota17Purdue -3.5Purdue45.5Over
201611/05Minnesota44Purdue31Minnesota -16.5Purdue54.0Over
201510/10Purdue13Minnesota41Minnesota -2.5Minnesota47.5Over
201410/18Minnesota39Purdue38Minnesota -14.5Purdue0
201210/27Minnesota44Purdue28
201110/08Purdue45Minnesota17
201010/16Purdue28Minnesota17
200910/10Minnesota35Purdue20
200810/25Purdue6Minnesota17
200709/22Minnesota31Purdue45
200609/23Purdue27Minnesota21
200509/24Minnesota42Purdue35
200209/28Purdue28Minnesota15
200109/29Minnesota28Purdue35
200009/22Purdue38Minnesota24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue1066 Overs
Minnesota1254 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 74 - 71 - 63 - 1
Road Teams7 - 157 - 41 - 36 - 1

(#88) MINN at (#81) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMINNPUR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #88 #81
SP+SP+ #69 #90
Perf GradeGrade #70 #115
OffenseOff #61 #105
DefenseDef #91 #114
Spec TeamsST #96 #56
TalentTal #57 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #37
Minnesota on Offense
CategoryCat
MINN OffPUR Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #61 #114
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #108 #83
SP+SP+ #105 #72
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Minnesota Run Game
CategoryCat
MINN OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #44 #75
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #37 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #43
Minnesota Pass Game
CategoryCat
MINN OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #108 #134
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #69 #53
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Purdue on Offense
CategoryCatPUR OffMINN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #105 #91
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #90 #99
SP+SP+ #89 #37
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Purdue Run Game
CategoryCat
PUR OffMINN Def
Run GameRun #74 #110
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #113
Purdue Pass Game
CategoryCatPUR OffMINN Def
Pass GamePass #72 #85
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
Minnesota 1.5 (48.5)
Purdue won vs Minnesota this year (49-30)

Previous Matchups
Minnesota beat Purdue last year (27-20)
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2023 (49-30)

  
MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Athan Kaliakmanis15629453%18381496.3
Cole Kramer81747%26221.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Darius Taylor13879955.843
Jordan Nubin12755934.421
Sean Tyler (Tr)6124204.019
Zach Evans5223014.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Jackson59831814.139
Corey Crooms (Tr)28376013.432
Brevyn Spann-Ford2523929.631
Darius Taylor119208.425

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Nick Monroe (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Henderson (Tr)524001
Tre'Von Jones514106
Tyler Nubin501103
Maverick Baranowski484111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jah Joyner188820
Danny Striggow426620
Kyler Baugh395333
Jalen Logan-Redding293211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Walley382008
Tre'Von Jones514106
Tyler Nubin501103

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)21536559%23871586.5
Ryan Browne121675%104026.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee17280764.765
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11371686.362
Dylan Downing4821114.425
Hudson Card (Tr)9320352.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deion Burks47629713.484
TJ Sheffield32381211.943
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen25329013.230
Garrett Miller3024328.128

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1062012
Sanoussi Kane796127
Kydran Jenkins5615881
Yanni Karlaftis553300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway4915933
Kydran Jenkins5615881
O.C. Brothers206313
Yanni Karlaftis553300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sanoussi Kane796127
Marquis Wilson (Tr)200006
Cam Allen301006