Minnesota at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:30 PM EST)
Minnesota -1.5 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Purdue 49 - Minnesota: 30 (Big Ten)

Golden Gophers (6 - 7) (4 - 9 - 0)
Coach P. J. Fleck (46 - 28)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (18 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.8 - 8.2 (#102)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MINN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Purdue -0 (SP+ MINN -6)
Projected Score: MINN: 24 - PUR: 24 (48)
MINN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
MINN Travel: 448 miles, 1 hrs behind

Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MINN Players
PUR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Minnesota's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Minnesota vs Nebraska	-7.5	43.0	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/9	Minnesota vs Eastern Michigan	-19.5	48.0	W 25 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/16	Minnesota at North Carolina	+7.0	51.0	L 13 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/23	Minnesota at Northwestern	-11.5	39.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/30	Minnesota vs Louisiana	-9.5	49.0	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Minnesota vs Michigan	+18.5	46.0	L 10 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Minnesota at Iowa	+3.0	30.5	W 12 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Minnesota vs Michigan State	-6.5	41.5	W 27 - 12	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Minnesota vs Illinois	-1.5	43.0	L 26 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/11	Minnesota at Purdue	-1.5	48.5	L 30 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/18	Minnesota at Ohio State	+27.5	51.5	L 3 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/25	Minnesota vs Wisconsin	+1.5	42.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Tue 12/26	Minnesota vs Bowling Green	-2.5	45.0	W 30 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Minnesota's Schedule

Purdue's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Purdue vs Fresno State	-4.0	47.0	L 35 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/9	Purdue at Virginia Tech	+1.5	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Purdue vs Syracuse	+1.0	56.5	L 20 - 35	U	N
Fri 9/22	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Purdue vs Illinois	-1.0	54.0	W 44 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Purdue at Iowa	+2.5	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Purdue vs Ohio State	+17.5	53.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Purdue at Nebraska	-1.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/4	Purdue at Michigan	+32.5	52.5	L 13 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Purdue vs Minnesota	+1.5	48.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+2.5	47.5	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Purdue vs Indiana	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#118 (.09)	41% (87)	20.9	44% (53)	3.15 (61)	158	36% (116)	143	3.85 (73)	#93 (.22)	43% (75)	26.7	45% (90)	41% (63)	4.67 (129)	27.1	1.3	1.5
PUR	#86 (.16)	42% (60)	23.9	45% (51)	3.16 (60)	169	41% (78)	211	3.21 (112)	#74 (.19)	40% (44)	30.4	41% (45)	40% (52)	4.28 (112)	57.6	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MINN	#64 (.2)	45% (39)		44% (65)	2.7 (119)	103	46% (29)	204	4.38 (27)	#16 (.08)	39% (35)		36% (8)	42% (80)	3.32 (23)	35.6	0.8	1.5
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Offense	13	20.9	18.4	40.5%	3.85	1.3	18	301	158	143	4.1	59%	40%	44%	36%	13%	.09
PUR Defense	12	30.4	33.3	40.2%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	40%	17%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MINN Defense	13	26.7	32.8	42.6%	4.67	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	45%	41%	11%	.22
PUR Offense	12	23.9	29.6	42.5%	3.21	1.5	20	380	169	211	4.4	51%	48%	45%	41%	18%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Minnesota	13	31:49	18.2	35%	82%	3	27.1	1.3	1.5	3.2	1.6	0	29
Purdue	12	30:25	20.4	36%	39%	6	57.6	1.5	1.5	5.8	2.8	1	29.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Offense	13	59% (12)	44% (53)	38.8	157.5	4.1	13 (108)	.11 (92)	3.15 (61)	75% (52)	7% (13)	0.83 (127)
PUR Defense	12	51% (80)	41% (45)	-	-	-	-	.08 (31)	3 (48)	68% (41)	11% (38)	0.97 (53)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MINN Defense	13	47% (34)	45% (90)	-	-	-	-	.2 (102)	3.15 (79)	80% (109)	7% (132)	0.99 (63)
PUR Offense	12	51% (55)	45% (51)	38.5	168.8	4.4	20 (61)	.15 (69)	3.16 (60)	54% (133)	12% (118)	0.98 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Offense	13	40% (121)	36% (116)	12.6	24	143.4	6	11.4	16 (92)	11 (68)	.1 (123)	1.6 (53)	29% (26)	27% (99)	.16 (117)	6% (52)	1.9 (106)
PUR Defense	12	49% (56)	40% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (102)	1.8 (121)	33% (50)	32% (93)	.38 (101)	6% (73)	2.2 (96)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MINN Defense	13	51% (94)	41% (63)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (83)	1.6 (73)	30% (106)	30% (71)	.42 (112)	5% (116)	2.2 (105)
PUR Offense	12	48% (81)	41% (78)	19.5	32.7	211.2	6.5	10.8	15 (96)	10 (56)	.22 (89)	1.5 (111)	31% (56)	30% (75)	.31 (75)	6% (71)	2.1 (58)

Minnesota's Power Ratings
Minnesota's Power Rating: -4.18 #88
Minnesota's Offense Rating: 12.36 #108
Minnesota's Defense Rating: 12.35 #99
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Minnesota's 2023 Expected Record: 4.80 - 8.20
Minnesota's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #69
Minnesota's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #105
Minnesota's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.6 #37

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -4.18 Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Minnesota: -1.3 Purdue: -7.4

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16 #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Minnesota Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.4
Defense: 26.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Minnesota's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Minnesota 24
Purdue 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Minnesota 26
Purdue 14

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Purdue 28
Minnesota 26

Total Points: 54

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Minnesota	27	Purdue	20	Minnesota -7.5	Purdue	49.5	Under
2023	11/11	Purdue	49	Minnesota	30	Minnesota -1.5	Purdue	48.5	Over
2022	10/01	Minnesota	10	Purdue	20	Minnesota -9.0	Purdue	53.0	Under
2021	10/02	Purdue	13	Minnesota	20	Purdue -2	Minnesota	46.0	Under
2020	11/20	Minnesota	34	Purdue	31	Purdue -2.5	Minnesota	60.5	Over
2019	09/28	Purdue	31	Minnesota	38	Purdue -2	Minnesota	57.0	Over
2018	11/10	Minnesota	41	Purdue	10	Purdue -10.5	Minnesota	58.0	Under
2017	10/07	Purdue	31	Minnesota	17	Purdue -3.5	Purdue	45.5	Over
2016	11/05	Minnesota	44	Purdue	31	Minnesota -16.5	Purdue	54.0	Over
2015	10/10	Purdue	13	Minnesota	41	Minnesota -2.5	Minnesota	47.5	Over
2014	10/18	Minnesota	39	Purdue	38	Minnesota -14.5	Purdue	0
2012	10/27	Minnesota	44	Purdue	28
2011	10/08	Purdue	45	Minnesota	17
2010	10/16	Purdue	28	Minnesota	17
2009	10/10	Minnesota	35	Purdue	20
2008	10/25	Purdue	6	Minnesota	17
2007	09/22	Minnesota	31	Purdue	45
2006	09/23	Purdue	27	Minnesota	21
2005	09/24	Minnesota	42	Purdue	35
2002	09/28	Purdue	28	Minnesota	15
2001	09/29	Minnesota	28	Purdue	35
2000	09/22	Purdue	38	Minnesota	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Purdue	10	6	6 Overs
Minnesota	12	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 7	4 - 7	1 - 6	3 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 15	7 - 4	1 - 3	6 - 1

(#88) MINN at (#81) PUR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MINN	PUR
Power RatePwr	#88	#81
SP+SP+	#69	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#70	#115
OffenseOff	#61	#105
DefenseDef	#91	#114
Spec TeamsST	#96	#56
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#37

Minnesota Injury Report

Purdue Injury Report

Minnesota on Offense


CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#61	#114
SuccessSuc	#87	#44
ExplosiveExp	#128	#103
PPAPPA	#118	#74
PowerPwr	#108	#83
SP+SP+	#105	#72
Pts POPPO	#73	#112
HavocHav	#14	#48

Minnesota Run Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#44	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	#53	#45
Run ExplRExp	#127	#53
PPAExp	#92	#31
Run BlockR Blk	#37	-
OL YdsOLY	#61	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#50
TackleTak	-	#43

Minnesota Pass Game


CategoryCat	MINN Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#108	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#116	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#53	#121
PPAExp	#123	#102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#53
F7 HavocF7	#13	#38
DB HavocDB	#52	#73

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
Perf GradePerf	#105	#91
SuccessSuc	#60	#75
ExplosiveExp	#109	#75
PPAPPA	#86	#93
PowerPwr	#90	#99
SP+SP+	#89	#37
Pts POPPO	#112	#129
HavocHav	#106	#131

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
Run GameRun	#74	#110
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#90
Run ExplRExp	#76	#63
PPAExp	#69	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#79
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#91
TackleTak	-	#113

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	MINN Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#85
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#63
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#73
PPAExp	#89	#83
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	#31
F7 HavocF7	#118	#132
DB HavocDB	#71	#116

Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

MINN 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 48° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 11
Minnesota 1.5 (48.5)
Purdue won vs Minnesota this year (49-30)

Previous Matchups
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2023 (49-30)
Purdue beat Minnesota in 2022 (20-10)

MINN's OC Greg Harbaugh Jr. (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Athan Kaliakmanis	156	294	53%	1838	14	9	6.3
Cole Kramer	8	17	47%	26	2	2	1.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Darius Taylor	138	799	5	5.8	43
Jordan Nubin	127	559	3	4.4	21
Sean Tyler (Tr)	61	242	0	4.0	19
Zach Evans	52	230	1	4.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Jackson	59	831	8	14.1	39
Corey Crooms (Tr)	28	376	0	13.4	32
Brevyn Spann-Ford	25	239	2	9.6	31
Darius Taylor	11	92	0	8.4	25

View Minnesota's Full Roster

MINN's DC Nick Monroe (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Henderson (Tr)	52	4	0	0	1
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	0	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	0	3
Maverick Baranowski	48	4	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jah Joyner	18	8	8	2	0
Danny Striggow	42	6	6	2	0
Kyler Baugh	39	5	3	3	3
Jalen Logan-Redding	29	3	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Justin Walley	38	2	0	8
Tre'Von Jones	51	4	1	6
Tyler Nubin	50	1	1	3

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card (Tr)	215	365	59%	2387	15	8	6.5
Ryan Browne	12	16	75%	104	0	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	172	807	6	4.7	65
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	113	716	8	6.3	62
Dylan Downing	48	211	1	4.4	25
Hudson Card (Tr)	93	203	5	2.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Burks	47	629	7	13.4	84
TJ Sheffield	32	381	2	11.9	43
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen	25	329	0	13.2	30
Garrett Miller	30	243	2	8.1	28

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	106	2	0	1	2
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	49	15	9	3	3
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
O.C. Brothers	20	6	3	1	3
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Marquis Wilson (Tr)	20	0	0	0	6
Cam Allen	30	1	0	0	6