Purdue at Nebraska - 2023 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Nebraska Cornhuskers

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Purdue -1 (39.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Nebraska 31 - Purdue: 14 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEB 2nd straight Home Game
PUR coming off BYE
Our Line: Nebraska -8.5 (SP+ NEB -8)
Projected Score: PUR: 19 - NEB: 27 (46)
PUR Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
PUR Travel: 514 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Cornhuskers (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Matt Rhule (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 29 - 25 (36 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
NEB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Purdue vs Fresno State	-4.0	47.0	L 35 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/9	Purdue at Virginia Tech	+1.5	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Purdue vs Syracuse	+1.0	56.5	L 20 - 35	U	N
Fri 9/22	Purdue vs Wisconsin	+5.5	54.0	L 17 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/30	Purdue vs Illinois	-1.0	54.0	W 44 - 19	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Purdue at Iowa	+2.5	38.5	L 14 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/14	Purdue vs Ohio State	+17.5	53.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Purdue at Nebraska	-1.0	39.5	L 14 - 31	O	N
Sat 11/4	Purdue at Michigan	+32.5	52.5	L 13 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Purdue vs Minnesota	+1.5	48.5	W 49 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Purdue at Northwestern	+2.5	47.5	L 15 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Purdue vs Indiana	-2.5	55.5	W 35 - 31	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Nebraska's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Nebraska at Minnesota	+7.5	43.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Nebraska at Colorado	+2.5	56.5	L 14 - 36	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nebraska vs Northern Illinois	-11.5	42.5	W 35 - 11	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Nebraska vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	44.5	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/30	Nebraska vs Michigan	+17.0	39.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Fri 10/6	Nebraska at Illinois	+3.5	43.0	W 20 - 7	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Nebraska vs Northwestern	-10.5	40.0	W 17 - 9	U	N
Sat 10/28	Nebraska vs Purdue	+1.0	39.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nebraska at Michigan State	-3.0	34.5	L 17 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/11	Nebraska vs Maryland	+1.5	41.5	L 10 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/18	Nebraska at Wisconsin	+7.5	36.5	L 17 - 24	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Nebraska vs Iowa	-3.0	25.5	L 10 - 13	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	.15	44%	18.8	47%	3	121	43%	278	3.52	.16	41%	31.8	42%	41%	4.38	53.4	1.6	1.7
NEB	.2	41%	28.7	40%	2.97	123	42%	221	3.84	.2	47%	24.6	52%	43%	4.11	42.5	1.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	14	18.8	15.8	43.7%	3.52	1.6	23	399	121	278	3.6	41%	58%	47%	43%	13%	.15
NEB Defense	12	24.6	20.9	47.3%	4.11	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	52%	43%	14%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	14	31.8	34.4	40.8%	4.38	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	42%	41%	16%	.16
NEB Offense	12	28.7	36.1	41%	3.84	1.6	18	344	123	221	3.5	51%	49%	40%	42%	17%	.2

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	14	31:51	23	38%	55%	5.3	53.4	1.6	1.7	4.3	1.9	3	28.5
Nebraska	12	26:48	18.1	40%	43%	5.4	42.5	1.6	1.6	5	1.8	1	26.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	14	41%	47%	33.4	121.1	3.6	17	.09	3	79%	6%	0.76
NEB Defense	12	51%	52%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.33	80%	8%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	14	50%	42%	-	-	-	-	.12	3.04	71%	9%	0.93
NEB Offense	12	51%	40%	35	123.3	3.5	17	.08	2.97	76%	11%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	14	58%	43%	26.3	41.5	278.2	6.7	10.6	26	17	.24	1.4	30%	28%	.18	7%	1.8
NEB Defense	12	48%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.25	1.4	30%	31%	.22	6%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	14	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.28	1.6	30%	23%	.09	7%	2.1
NEB Offense	12	49%	42%	17.1	28.3	220.8	7.8	12.9	17	13	.35	1.7	34%	29%	.28	6%	1.8

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.72 #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07 #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70 #83
2023 Talent Rating: 671.10 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4 #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -2.72 Nebraska: 3.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -7.4 Nebraska: 0.1

Nebraska's Power Ratings
Nebraska's Power Rating: 3.355 #53
Nebraska's Offense Rating: 10.32 #121
Nebraska's Defense Rating: 5.24 #28
2023 Talent Rating: 765.20 #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 24 #27
Nebraska's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Nebraska's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #65
Nebraska's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.0 #123
Nebraska's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.4 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Nebraska 27
Purdue 19

Projected Total Points: 46

Nebraska Scoring
Offense: 28.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.9

Nebraska's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Purdue	10	Nebraska	28	Nebraska -10	Nebraska	47.5	Under
2023	10/28	Nebraska	31	Purdue	14	Purdue -1	Nebraska	39.5	Over
2022	10/15	Purdue	43	Nebraska	37	Purdue -14	Nebraska	56.0	Over
2021	10/30	Nebraska	23	Purdue	28	Nebraska -7.5	Purdue	54.0	Under
2020	12/05	Purdue	27	Nebraska	37	Purdue -1.0	Nebraska	64.0	Push
2019	11/02	Purdue	31	Nebraska	27	Nebraska -4	Purdue	57.0	Over
2018	09/29	Nebraska	28	Purdue	42	Purdue -3.5	Purdue	58.5	Over
2017	10/28	Purdue	24	Nebraska	25	Purdue -4	Nebraska	53.0	Under
2016	10/22	Nebraska	27	Purdue	14	Nebraska -23.5	Purdue	59.0	Under
2015	10/31	Purdue	55	Nebraska	45	Nebraska -10	Purdue	54.5	Over
2014	11/01	Nebraska	35	Purdue	14	Nebraska -24.5	Purdue	0
2013	10/12	Purdue	7	Nebraska	44	Nebraska -14	Nebraska	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nebraska	7	6	5 Overs
Purdue	5	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 6	3 - 9	0 - 6	3 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 6	9 - 3	3 - 3	6 - 0

(#81) PUR at (#53) NEB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	NEB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#81	#53
SP+SP+	#90	#65
Perf GradeGrade	#115	#98
OffenseOff	#105	#125
DefenseDef	#114	#40
Spec TeamsST	#56	#9
TalentTal	#48	#21
Blue ChipsBC%	#37	#27

Purdue Injury Report

Nebraska Injury Report

Purdue on Offense


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NEB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#40
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#90	#28
SP+SP+	#89	#8
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Purdue Run Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NEB Def
Run GameRun	#74	#51
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#15

Purdue Pass Game


CategoryCat	PUR Off	NEB Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#33
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#91
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nebraska on Offense


CategoryCat	NEB Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#114
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#121	#83
SP+SP+	#123	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nebraska Run Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#128	#75
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#43

Nebraska Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEB Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#134	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#76	#53
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Top G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Purdue 1.0 (39.5)
Nebraska won vs Purdue this year (31-14)

Previous Matchups
Nebraska beat Purdue in 2024 (28-10)
Nebraska beat Purdue in 2023 (31-14)

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card (Tr)	215	365	59%	2387	15	8	6.5
Ryan Browne	12	16	75%	104	0	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	172	807	6	4.7	65
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	113	716	8	6.3	62
Dylan Downing	48	211	1	4.4	25
Hudson Card (Tr)	93	203	5	2.2	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Deion Burks	47	629	7	13.4	84
TJ Sheffield	32	381	2	11.9	43
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen	25	329	0	13.2	30
Garrett Miller	30	243	2	8.1	28

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	106	2	0	1	2
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nic Caraway	49	15	9	3	3
Kydran Jenkins	56	15	8	8	1
O.C. Brothers	20	6	3	1	3
Yanni Karlaftis	55	3	3	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sanoussi Kane	79	6	1	2	7
Marquis Wilson (Tr)	20	0	0	0	6
Cam Allen	30	1	0	0	6

NEB's OC Marcus Satterfield (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Heinrich Haarberg	77	157	49%	967	7	7	6.2
Chubba Purdy	31	57	54%	382	2	3	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Heinrich Haarberg	120	477	5	4.0	72
Anthony Grant	104	413	3	4.0	34
Emmett Johnson	90	411	2	4.6	29
Gabe Ervin	38	196	1	5.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Billy Kemp (Tr)	35	310	1	8.9	34
Thomas Fidone Jr.	25	260	4	10.4	29
Jaylen Lloyd	6	237	3	39.5	73
Alex Bullock	15	221	1	14.7	34

View Nebraska's Full Roster

NEB's DC Tony White (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	0	8
Javin Wright	51	2	1	0	2
Omar Brown	51	3	0	0	3
John Bullock	50	3	2	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimari Butler	34	9	6	1	2
Luke Reimer	48	8	5	5	0
Nash Hutmacher	40	8	5	4	2
Cameron Lenhardt	16	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Tommi Hill	26	1	0	9
Isaac Gifford	86	7	1	8
Malcolm Hartzog	40	2	0	6