Ohio State at Purdue - 2023 Matchup Preview
Ohio State logo (#1)Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue BoilermakersPurdue logo
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (12:00 PM EDT)
Ohio State -17.5 (53.0) (-1200)  Open: -21.0 | 51.5
Ohio State 41 - Purdue: 7  (Big Ten)

 
Buckeyes (11 - 2) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Ryan Day (48 - 6)
Avg Score : 31 - 11 (27 - 13 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PUR is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Ohio State -27.5  (SP+ OSU -34)
Projected Score: OSU: 40 - PUR: 12 (52)
OSU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
OSU Travel: 208 miles
Boilermakers (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (1 - 2)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ohio State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Ohio State at Indiana-30.059.0W 23 - 3UN
Sat 9/9 Ohio State vs Youngstown State-45.556.0W 35 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Ohio State vs Western Kentucky-29.565.0W 63 - 10OY
Sat 9/23 Ohio State at Notre Dame-3.055.5W 17 - 14UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Ohio State vs Maryland-17.056.5W 37 - 17UY
Sat 10/14 Ohio State at Purdue-17.553.0W 41 - 7UY
Sat 10/21 Ohio State vs Penn State-4.047.0W 20 - 12UY
Sat 10/28 Ohio State at Wisconsin-14.548.0W 24 - 10UN
Sat 11/4 Ohio State at Rutgers-19.042.5W 35 - 16ON
Sat 11/11 Ohio State vs Michigan State-30.548.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 11/18 Ohio State vs Minnesota-27.551.5W 37 - 3UY
Sat 11/25 Ohio State at Michigan+3.047.0L 24 - 30ON
Fri 12/29 Ohio State vs Missouri-4.051.0L 3 - 14UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ohio State's Schedule
Purdue's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Purdue vs Fresno State-4.047.0L 35 - 39ON
Sat 9/9 Purdue at Virginia Tech+1.549.0W 24 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Purdue vs Syracuse+1.056.5L 20 - 35UN
Fri 9/22 Purdue vs Wisconsin+5.554.0L 17 - 38ON
Sat 9/30 Purdue vs Illinois-1.054.0W 44 - 19OY
Sat 10/7 Purdue at Iowa+2.538.5L 14 - 20UN
Sat 10/14 Purdue vs Ohio State+17.553.0L 7 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Purdue at Nebraska-1.039.5L 14 - 31ON
Sat 11/4 Purdue at Michigan+32.552.5L 13 - 41OY
Sat 11/11 Purdue vs Minnesota+1.548.5W 49 - 30OY
Sat 11/18 Purdue at Northwestern+2.547.5L 15 - 23UN
Sat 11/25 Purdue vs Indiana-2.555.5W 35 - 31OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#14 (.31)47% (22)30.545% (49)3.18 (57)13949% (12)2694.21 (36)#5 (.03)36% (11)11.235% (12)37% (17)2.69 (5)44.510.8
PUR#86 (.16)42% (60)23.945% (51)3.16 (60)16941% (78)2113.21 (112)#74 (.19)40% (44)30.441% (45)40% (52)4.28 (112)57.61.51.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OSU#1 (.43)52% (3)48% (19)3.37 (15)13756% (1)2114.6 (15)#2 (-.01)36% (7)39% (26)34% (8)2.05 (1)31.60.81.1
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Offense1330.527.346.6%4.211214081392694.248%51%45%49%14%.31
PUR Defense1230.433.340.2%4.281.5 - - - - - 51%49%41%40%17%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OSU Defense1311.213.335.8%2.690.8 - - - - - 51%49%35%37%15%.03
PUR Offense1223.929.642.5%3.211.5203801692114.451%48%45%41%18%.16

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ohio State1329:2520.943%56%5.744.510.84.81.7328.8
Purdue1230:2520.436%39%657.61.51.55.82.8129.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Offense1348% (83)45% (49)33.2138.84.220 (61).15 (72)3.18 (57)78% (34)7% (14)0.84 (126)
PUR Defense1251% (80)41% (45) - - - - .08 (31)3 (48)68% (41)11% (38)0.97 (53)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OSU Defense1351% (85)35% (12) - - - - .04 (18)3.02 (52)58% (7)9% (103)0.98 (56)
PUR Offense1251% (55)45% (51)38.5168.84.420 (61).15 (69)3.16 (60)54% (133)12% (118)0.98 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Offense1351% (49)49% (12)19.630.8269.18.813.726 (31)7 (21).5 (10)1.7 (44)28% (12)34% (33).48 (23)7% (95)2 (99)
PUR Defense1249% (56)40% (52) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (102)1.8 (121)33% (50)32% (93).38 (101)6% (73)2.2 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OSU Defense1349% (62)37% (17) - - - - - - 7 (111).04 (1)1.4 (2)33% (51)26% (21).15 (6)7% (47)1.8 (13)
PUR Offense1248% (81)41% (78)19.532.7211.26.510.815 (96)10 (56).22 (89)1.5 (111)31% (56)30% (75).31 (75)6% (71)2.1 (58)

Ohio State's Power Ratings
Ohio State's Power Rating: 23.40  #3
Ohio State's Offense Rating: 25.07  #13
Ohio State's Defense Rating: -0.66  #6
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 85%  #2
Ohio State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Ohio State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.7  #3
Ohio State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #25
Ohio State's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.8  #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 23.40   Purdue: -2.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ohio State: 26.7   Purdue: -7.4




Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -2.56  #81
Purdue's Offense Rating: 14.07  #90
Purdue's Defense Rating: 10.70  #83
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #37
Purdue's 2023 Expected Record: 4.70 - 7.30
Purdue's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.4  #90
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #89
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.7  #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Ohio State Scoring
Offense: 30.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.3
Defense: 11.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 13.3

Ohio State's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 2
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 2
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Ohio State 40
Purdue 12

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Ohio State 28
Purdue 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Ohio State 31
Purdue 20

Total Points: 51
Purdue Scoring
Offense: 23.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.6
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.3

Purdue's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Purdue10Ohio State34Ohio State -29.5Purdue49.5Under
202411/09Ohio State45Purdue0Ohio State -37.5Ohio State55.5Under
202310/14Purdue7Ohio State41Ohio State -17.5Ohio State53.0Under
202111/13Ohio State59Purdue31Ohio State -19Ohio State65.5Over
201810/20Purdue49Ohio State20Ohio State -12Purdue66.0Over
201311/02Purdue0Ohio State56Ohio State -31Ohio State0
201210/20Ohio State29Purdue22
201111/12Purdue26Ohio State23
201010/23Ohio State49Purdue0
200910/17Purdue26Ohio State18
200810/11Ohio State16Purdue3
200710/06Purdue7Ohio State23
200411/13Purdue24Ohio State17
200311/15Ohio State16Purdue13
200211/09Purdue6Ohio State10
200111/10Ohio State35Purdue9
200010/27Purdue31Ohio State27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Purdue522 Overs
Ohio State1243 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 54 - 22 - 02 - 2
Road Teams5 - 122 - 42 - 20 - 2

(#3) OSU at (#81) PUR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOSUPUR
Power RatePwr #3 #81
SP+SP+ #3 #90
Perf GradeGrade #7 #115
OffenseOff #19 #105
DefenseDef #7 #114
Spec TeamsST #14 #56
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #2 #37
Ohio State on Offense
CategoryCat
OSU OffPUR Def
Perf GradePerf #19 #114
SuccessSuc #22 #44
ExplosiveExp #78 #103
PPAPPA #14 #74
PowerPwr #13 #83
SP+SP+ #25 #72
Pts POPPO #36 #112
HavocHav #29 #48
Ohio State Run Game
CategoryCat
OSU OffPUR Def
Run GameRun #30 #75
Run SuccessRSuc #49 #45
Run ExplRExp #126 #53
PPAExp #72 #31
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #57 #48
Stuff RateStuff #52 #50
TackleTak -  #43
Ohio State Pass Game
CategoryCat
OSU OffPUR Def
Pass GamePass #39 #134
Pass SuccessPSuc #12 #52
Pass ExplPExl #44 #121
PPAExp #10 #102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #64 #53
F7 HavocF7 #14 #38
DB HavocDB #95 #73
Purdue on Offense
CategoryCatPUR OffOSU Def
Perf GradePerf #105 #7
SuccessSuc #60 #11
ExplosiveExp #109 #11
PPAPPA #86 #5
PowerPwr #90 #6
SP+SP+ #89 #3
Pts POPPO #112 #5
HavocHav #106 #85
Purdue Run Game
CategoryCat
PUR OffOSU Def
Run GameRun #74 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #12
Run ExplRExp #76 #56
PPAExp #69 #18
Run BlockR Blk #96 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #52
Stuff RateStuff #107 #86
TackleTak -  #6
Purdue Pass Game
CategoryCatPUR OffOSU Def
Pass GamePass #72 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #78 #17
Pass ExplPExl #111 #2
PPAExp #89 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #85 #12
F7 HavocF7 #118 #103
DB HavocDB #71 #47
Program Comparison
PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

OSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'25 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ross-Ade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 56° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 7
Ohio State 17.5 (53.0)
Ohio State won at Purdue this year (41-7)

Previous Matchups
Ohio State beat Purdue last year (45-0)
Ohio State beat Purdue in 2023 (41-7)

  
OSU's OC Brian Hartline (Int) (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kyle McCord22934866%31702469.1
Devin Brown162857%217217.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TreVeyon Henderson156926115.975
DeaMonte Trayanum8537334.440
Xavier Johnson2819006.827
Miyan Williams4915833.212
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvin Harrison Jr.6712111418.175
Cade Stover41576514.049
Emeka Egbuka41514412.528
Julian Fleming26271010.437

View Ohio State's Full Roster

OSU's DC Jim Knowles (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Steele Chambers832011
Tommy Eichenberg803140
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)591005
Cody Simon572002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Sawyer4810732
J.T. Tuimoloau387562
Tyleik Williams5410315
Sonny Styles535201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Denzel Burke243008
Josh Proctor474018
Davison Igbinosun (Tr)591005

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card (Tr)21536559%23871586.5
Ryan Browne121675%104026.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee17280764.765
Tyrone Tracy Jr.11371686.362
Dylan Downing4821114.425
Hudson Card (Tr)9320352.225
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Deion Burks47629713.484
TJ Sheffield32381211.943
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen25329013.230
Garrett Miller3024328.128

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1062012
Sanoussi Kane796127
Kydran Jenkins5615881
Yanni Karlaftis553300
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway4915933
Kydran Jenkins5615881
O.C. Brothers206313
Yanni Karlaftis553300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sanoussi Kane796127
Marquis Wilson (Tr)200006
Cam Allen301006