Iowa at Missouri - 2024 Matchup Preview

Monday, December 30th 2024 (2:30 PM EST)
Missouri -1 (41.0) (-112) Open: 0.0 | 43.5
Missouri 27 - Iowa: 24 (TransPerfect Music City Bowl)

Hawkeyes (8 - 5) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (196 - 119)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (21 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Iowa -0 (SP+ IOWA -2)
Projected Score: IOWA: 21 - MIZ: 21 (42)
MIZ Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
IOWA Travel: 193 miles

Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 20 (32 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
IOWA Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Iowa's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Iowa vs Illinois State	-31.5
Sat 9/7	Iowa vs Iowa State	-3.0	35.0	L 19 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/14	Iowa vs Troy	-23.5	39.5	W 38 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Iowa at Minnesota	-3.0	34.5	W 31 - 14	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Iowa at Ohio State	+17.0	46.0	L 7 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/12	Iowa vs Washington	-2.5	41.5	W 40 - 16	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Iowa at Michigan State	-7.0	39.5	L 20 - 32	O	N
Sat 10/26	Iowa vs Northwestern	-16.5	38.5	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Iowa vs Wisconsin	-2.5	40.0	W 42 - 10	O	Y
Fri 11/8	Iowa at UCLA	-6.5	44.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Iowa at Maryland	-4.0	40.5	W 29 - 13	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Iowa vs Nebraska	-3.5	41.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Mon 12/30	Iowa vs Missouri	+1.0	41.0	L 24 - 27	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule

Missouri's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Missouri vs Murray State	-50.5	62.5	W 51 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Missouri vs Buffalo	-34.5	53.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Missouri vs Boston College	-14.5	51.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	Missouri vs Vanderbilt	-17.5	52.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Missouri at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/12	Missouri at Massachusetts	-27.0	54.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Missouri vs Auburn	-3.5	49.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Missouri at Alabama	+16.0	51.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+3.5	41.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Missouri at South Carolina	+10.5	42.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Missouri at Mississippi State	-9.5	58.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Missouri vs Arkansas	-3.5	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/30	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA	#100 (.14)	42% (72)	27.7	44% (63)	2.92 (89)	185	40% (94)	121	3.77 (84)	#30 (.11)	42% (72)	17.8	46% (97)	39% (51)	3.37 (27)	26.3	0.8	1.8
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)	28.9	47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)	20.4	42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
IOWA	#100 (.14)	42% (72)		44% (63)	2.92 (89)	185	40% (94)	121	3.77 (84)	#30 (.11)	42% (72)		46% (97)	39% (51)	3.37 (27)	26.3	0.8	1.8
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)		47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)		42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Offense	13	27.7	20.8	42.3%	3.77	0.8	15	306	185	121	5.2	62%	37%	44%	40%	13%	.14
MIZ Defense	13	20.4	15.6	40.6%	3.38	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	18%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
IOWA Defense	13	17.8	22.8	42%	3.37	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	46%	39%	17%	.11
MIZ Offense	13	28.9	32.1	44%	3.91	0.7	19	361	159	202	4.3	53%	47%	47%	41%	11%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Iowa	13	27:05	15.4	41%	50%	2.8	26.3	0.8	1.8	4.5	2.1	2	33.6
Missouri	13	30:28	19.5	47%	53%	5.2	46	0.7	1.2	5	1.9	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Offense	13	62% (7)	44% (63)	35.5	185	5.2	29 (18)	.13 (71)	2.92 (89)	62% (120)	10% (76)	1.02 (47)
MIZ Defense	13	53% (91)	42% (57)	-	-	-	-	.01 (18)	2.75 (29)	73% (64)	12% (22)	0.92 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
IOWA Defense	13	46% (17)	46% (97)	-	-	-	-	.07 (38)	3.07 (84)	84% (126)	10% (68)	0.68 (1)
MIZ Offense	13	53% (48)	47% (28)	37.1	158.7	4.3	25 (41)	.12 (73)	3.04 (67)	79% (26)	8% (31)	0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Offense	13	37% (129)	40% (94)	11.5	18.6	121.5	6.5	10.6	9 (128)	7 (26)	.21 (93)	1.5 (93)	26% (4)	28% (99)	.2 (108)	3% (7)	2 (72)
MIZ Defense	13	47% (47)	39% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.23 (65)	1.6 (70)	32% (61)	27% (20)	.2 (27)	6% (54)	2 (65)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
IOWA Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (51)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.18 (39)	1.5 (36)	32% (76)	28% (36)	.24 (39)	7% (27)	1.8 (7)
MIZ Offense	13	47% (85)	41% (80)	17.8	28.5	202.2	7.1	11.4	12 (118)	5 (6)	.26 (66)	1.6 (69)	30% (49)	33% (52)	.39 (44)	4% (10)	2.1 (49)

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 10.13 #31
Iowa's Offense Rating: 17.67 #88
Iowa's Defense Rating: 2.77 #9
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 9% #44
Iowa's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Iowa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 15.8 #16
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #69
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.3 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 10.13 Missouri: 12.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Iowa: 15.8 Missouri: 14.0

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.905 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

Iowa's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 21
Missouri 21

Total Points: 42

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri 23
Iowa 16

Total Points: 39

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 25
Iowa 21

Total Points: 46

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.1
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/30	Missouri	27	Iowa	24	Missouri -1	Missouri	41.0	Over
2010	12/28	Iowa	27	Missouri	24

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	1	1	1 Overs
Iowa	1	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Iowa Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	City Bowl	Iowa vs Missouri	+1.0	41.0	L 24 - 27
2023	Citrus Bowl	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35
2022	City Bowl	Iowa vs Kentucky	-3.0	31.5	W 21 - 0
2021	Citrus Bowl	Iowa vs Kentucky	+3.0	43.5	L 17 - 20
2019	Holiday Bowl	Iowa vs USC	+1.5	54.5	W 49 - 24
2018	Outback Bowl	Iowa vs Mississippi State	+7.0	40.0	W 27 - 22

Missouri Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	City Bowl	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24
2023	Cotton Bowl	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3
2022	Gasparilla Bowl	Missouri vs Wake Forest	+3.0	59.0	L 17 - 27
2021	Forces Bowl	Missouri vs Army	+7.0	54.0	L 22 - 24
2018	N/A	Missouri vs Oklahoma State	-9.5	72.5	L 33 - 38

(#31) IOWA at (#26) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	IOWA	MIZ
Power RatePwr	#31	#26
SP+SP+	#16	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#9	#24
OffenseOff	#34	#26
DefenseDef	#8	#37
Spec TeamsST	#9	#12
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#44	#23

Iowa Notes(11/30) 5 1st downs, 0-10 on 3rd, still beat Nebraska
(11/23) Rgame mauled bad Terps. 3rd QB Stratton meh
(11/18) QB Sullivan out for season (ankle), Cade time?
(11/13) QB's awful, Rgame worse, Def bad vs UCLA
(11/2) Off humming, 2 straight W's. Killed Wisky
(10/30) QB McMamara out vs Wisky, Sullivan to start
(10/19) Def torched by Sparty. QB is a joke. Bad, bad loss
(10/12) Off Expl vs Wash, Rgame 220 (5.9 ypc), Def good
(10/6) Can't compete w/ elites, Pass game awful
(10/6) Def v good, Off awful outside of Kaleb Johnson
(9/8) McNamara awful vs ISU, RB/OL v good. Pass D bad
(9/1) QB: McNamara over Sullivan (NW, mobile)
Iowa Injury Report

Missouri Notes(11/30) 3-1 finish. Even w/ Ark, forced 2 TOs, good 3rd Def
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
(10/7) Killed by A&M. Cook, RB, Def all awful. Shocking
Missouri Injury Report

Iowa on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#34	#37
SuccessSuc	#72	#54
ExplosiveExp	#110	#51
PPAPPA	#100	#32
PowerPwr	#88	#33
SP+SP+	#69	#20
Pts POPPO	#84	#28
HavocHav	#31	#32

Iowa Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#82	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#57
Run ExplRExp	#47	#43
PPAExp	#71	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#4	-
OL YdsOLY	#89	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#110	#46
TackleTak	-	#52

Iowa Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 62%, Pass: 37%
CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#98	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#94	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#93	#70
PPAExp	#93	#65
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#15	#34
F7 HavocF7	#76	#22
DB HavocDB	#7	#54

Missouri on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	IOWA Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#8
SuccessSuc	#54	#72
ExplosiveExp	#114	#4
PPAPPA	#70	#30
PowerPwr	#55	#9
SP+SP+	#23	#5
Pts POPPO	#68	#27
HavocHav	#9	#51

Missouri Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#53	#42
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#97
Run ExplRExp	#100	#1
PPAExp	#73	#38
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#84
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#115
TackleTak	-	#30

Missouri Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#6
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#51
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#36
PPAExp	#66	#39
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#12
F7 HavocF7	#31	#68
DB HavocDB	#10	#27

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Nissan Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 63° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 1
Missouri -1.0 (41.0)
Missouri won vs Iowa this year (27-24)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Iowa last year (27-24)

IOWA's OC Tim Lester (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cade McNamara	104	172	61%	1017	6	5	5.9
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)	38	53	72%	474	3	3	8.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaleb Johnson	240	1537	21	6.4	75
Kamari Moulton	84	473	3	5.6	68
Jaziun Patterson	63	309	2	4.9	39
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)	47	151	4	3.2	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacob Gill (Tr)	35	411	2	11.7	59
Luke Lachey	28	231	0	8.3	28
Kaleb Johnson	22	188	2	8.5	72
Reece Vander Zee	14	176	3	12.6	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Nick Jackson	91	5	3	5	7
Quinn Schulte	62	0	0	0	3
Sebastian Castro	57	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ethan Hurkett	56	12	7	2	0
Aaron Graves	33	8	6	2	3
Max Llewellyn	22	8	6	7	3
Deontae Craig	43	7	3	6	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Jackson	91	5	3	5	7
Jermari Harris	27	1	0	0	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	200	320	63%	2525	11	2	7.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)	49	82	60%	391	3	3	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel (Tr)	163	818	3	5.0	64
Marcus Carroll (Tr)	140	595	12	4.3	35
Brady Cook	87	223	5	2.6	31
Jamal Roberts	53	216	3	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Theo Wease	60	884	4	14.7	70
Luther Burden III	60	666	6	11.1	44
Marquis Johnson	25	352	1	14.1	49
Brett Norfleet	26	235	2	9.0	36

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Triston Newson	72	7	2	4	1
Marvin Burks Jr.	66	2	0	0	2
Daylan Carnell	51	5	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Walker	43	13	10	4	1
Zion Young (Tr)	41	6	3	5	3
Chris McClellan (Tr)	39	6	3	3	2
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)	12	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daylan Carnell	51	5	6
Joseph Charleston	44	2	4
Nicholas Deloach Jr.	23	1	4