Western Kentucky at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Tuesday, December 23rd 2025 (5:30 PM EST)
Southern Miss -3.0 (59.0) (160)  Open: -4.0 | 55.5
Western Kentucky 27 - Southern Miss: 16  (New Orleans Bowl)

 
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Game in Dome
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Western Kentucky -6.5  (SP+ WKU -6)

Projected Score: WKU: 31 - USM: 25 (56)
USM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
WKU Travel: 424 miles
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 7
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#74 (.17)43% (58)29.545% (52)2.97 (62)12342% (64)2524.21 (30)#42 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (26)36% (18)2.72 (11)55.61.41
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1329.524.543.2%4.211.4203741232524.242%57%45%42%15%.17
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1322.82837%2.721 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1327:102045%33%5.655.61.414.91.2228.2
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (52)29.2122.74.220 (78).09 (81)2.97 (62)81% (12)9% (49)0.92 (84)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1346% (22)39% (26) - - - - .09 (61)2.79 (52)55% (3)9% (94)1.13 (130)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (64)23.335251.67.210.821 (42)11 (60).24 (72)1.5 (89)33% (100)34% (24).36 (45)6% (89)1.9 (104)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1352% (109)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).16 (33)1.5 (62)34% (32)27% (31).23 (43)7% (17)2 (69)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.54  #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30  #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 3.54   Southern Miss: -4.66

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 0.4   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -4.66  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 31
Southern Miss 25


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 30
Southern Miss 22

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 28
Western Kentucky 27

Total Points: 55
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202512/23Southern Miss16Western Kentucky27Southern Miss -3.0Western Kentucky59.0Under
202011/14Western Kentucky10Southern Miss7Western Kentucky -8Southern Miss45.0Under
201911/23Southern Miss10Western Kentucky28Southern Mississippi -3Western Kentucky51.0Under
201512/05Western Kentucky45Southern Miss28Western Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky76.0Under
201209/22Western Kentucky42Southern Miss17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss010 Overs
Western Kentucky534 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 21 - 31 - 30 - 0
Road Teams2 - 33 - 10 - 03 - 1

Western Kentucky Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Orleans Bowl Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16
2024Raton Bowl Western Kentucky vs James Madison+7.550.5L 17 - 27
2023Toastery Bowl Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion+4.049.0W 38 - 35
2022Orleans Bowl Western Kentucky vs South Alabama+4.058.0W 44 - 23
2021Raton Bowl Western Kentucky vs App State+3.067.0W 59 - 38
2020Lendingtree Bowl Western Kentucky vs Georgia State+3.550.5L 21 - 39
2019Responder Bowl Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan-3.056.0W 23 - 20
Southern Miss Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2025Orleans Bowl Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27
2022Lendingtree Bowl Southern Miss vs Rice-7.046.5W 38 - 24
2019Forces Bowl Southern Miss vs Tulane+7.558.0L 13 - 30
  
(#57) WKU at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWKUUSM
Power RatePwr #57 #85
SP+SP+ #70 #90
Perf GradeGrade #55 #36
OffenseOff #64 #76
DefenseDef #54 #10
Spec TeamsST #28 #40
TalentTal #89 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #56
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #10
SuccessSuc #58 #64
ExplosiveExp #70 #53
PPAPPA #74 #43
PowerPwr #77 #88
SP+SP+ #60 #102
Pts POPPO #30 #98
HavocHav #61 #32
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #74 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #52 #73
Run ExplRExp #84 #99
PPAExp #81 #93
Run BlockR Blk #91 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #87
Stuff RateStuff #99 #74
TackleTak -  #31
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #47 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #64
Pass ExplPExl #89 #40
PPAExp #72 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #33
F7 HavocF7 #49 #89
DB HavocDB #89 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #54
SuccessSuc #104 #19
ExplosiveExp #22 #116
PPAPPA #68 #42
PowerPwr #75 #39
SP+SP+ #67 #80
Pts POPPO #80 #11
HavocHav #91 #58
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #116 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #26
Run ExplRExp #79 #130
PPAExp #77 #61
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #52
Stuff RateStuff #71 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #35 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #18
Pass ExplPExl #15 #62
PPAExp #57 #33
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #70
F7 HavocF7 #49 #94
DB HavocDB #121 #17
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Caesers Superdome
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 70°
Rematch from Week 1
Southern Miss -3.0 (59.0)
Western Kentucky won at Southern Miss this year (27-16)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jai Eugene Jr.212105
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127