Troy at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
M. M. Roberts Stadium - Hattiesburg, MS  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (1 - 2) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 20 - 25 (16 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
USM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Southern Miss -5   (SP+ TROY -3.5)

Projected Score: TROY: 23 - USM: 28 (51)
USM Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TROY Travel: 202 miles
Golden Eagles (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+6.042.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama-1
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+8
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-10.5
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-5.5
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-11
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-16
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-11
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-10.5
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-3
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-18
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-8
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State+1
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama+2
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#101 (.1)38% (110)20.342% (84)3.09 (60)13033% (116)1463.09 (115)#57 (.11)42% (82)2544% (94)40% (67)5.08 (123)72.31.31.3
USM#67 (.2)42% (78)3140% (99)2.91 (76)11745% (56)2343.76 (81)#51 (.07)40% (76)25.347% (106)34% (41)3.39 (64)590.72
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense320.31637.5%3.091.3172761301463.949%51%42%33%16%.1
USM Defense325.325.340.4%3.392 - - - - - 49%50%47%34%21%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense3252742%5.081.3 - - - - - 53%47%44%40%17%.11
USM Offense3313142.4%3.760.7203511172343.746%54%40%45%15%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy328:571742%50%7.372.31.31.362.7126.3
Southern Miss327:1620.346%33%7590.725.73233.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense349% (80)42% (84)331303.92 (109).12 (75)3.09 (60)77% (45)8% (63)0.98 (61)
USM Defense349% (64)47% (106) - - - - .29 (126)2.99 (90)69% (63)8% (101)1.16 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense353% (96)44% (94) - - - - .04 (62)3.33 (125)77% (98)11% (48)0.81 (36)
USM Offense346% (94)40% (99)321173.73 (95).04 (99)2.91 (76)71% (67)8% (53)0.91 (81)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense351% (57)33% (116)1529146.35.19.84 (72)4 (121).08 (119)1.6 (56)36% (121)24% (113).26 (86)8% (128)2.2 (40)
USM Defense350% (71)34% (41) - - - - - - 6 (2)-.13 (11)1.4 (37)34% (54)35% (108).37 (96)13% (1)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense347% (44)40% (67) - - - - - - 2 (56).18 (58)1.6 (85)30% (105)27% (53).17 (49)5% (85)2.2 (99)
USM Offense354% (43)45% (56)23.3342346.9107 (23)2 (60).36 (55)1.6 (55)34% (102)35% (48).33 (70)7% (115)2 (70)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.70 #97
Troy's Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Troy's Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.70   Southern Miss: -2.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -7.7   Southern Miss: -11.4




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.33 #76
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 7.12 #69
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #110
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #99
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Troy Scoring
Offense: 20.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 28
Troy 23


Total Points: 51

Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Troy52Southern Miss20TroyTroy -17.5Troy48.5Over
202311/25Southern Miss17Troy35TroyTroy -16.5Troy48.5Over
202210/08Troy27Southern Miss10TroyTroy -7Troy44.0Under
202109/18Southern Miss9Troy21TroyTroy -11Troy49.0Under
201909/14Troy42Southern Miss47Southern MissTroy -3Southern Miss49.0Over
201609/17Southern Miss31Troy37TroySouthern Mississippi -11.5Troy61.0Over
200812/21Troy27Southern Miss30Southern Miss
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss214 Overs
Troy552 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 52 - 42 - 20 - 2
Road Teams5 - 24 - 22 - 02 - 2

(#97) Troy Info
Power Rating: -6.70 #97
Offense Rating: 6.79 #95
Defense Rating: 13.48 #95
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.7 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #107
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #88
Talent Rating: 584.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 42%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.08 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Troy has lost 10 straight
Troy has lost 5 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Troy Notes
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
(7/12) Finished 3-1, fought hard after 1-7 start
(7/12) RB 3 portals, 2 FCS adds. Lots of ? all over
(5/4) M Caldwell lost QB battle, transfer to Texas
(5/4) QB1A, RB1, TE1, DE1, CB1 all gone post spring
(5/4) QB Crowder (starter/inj) won QB1 job in spring
(4/14) RB Taylor (1k LY) big spring portal loss, big ?
(4/8) Top CB LJ Green (So) into portal in spring
(3/24) WR rebuild. Higgins/Taylor exp'd. 3 portals
(3/24) Def solid LY, returns a ton. 5 portals, looks good

Troy Highlights

Troy Deficiencies
Troy has a really bad Offense
Troy Commits a Lot of Penalties (#103)
Troy throws a Lot of Interceptions (#121)
Troy offense is really bad (#110)
Troy offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#115)
Troy pass game is really bad (#116)
Troy Does Not Stuff Runs (#110)
Troy has a bad defensive line (#125)
Troy has a bad red zone defense (#123)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatUSMTROY
OverallOver#36#85
OffenseOff#66#79
DefenseDef#19#85
Special TeamsST#23#84
PassingPass#53#92
RushingRush#64#66
Run BlockRBLK#89#44
Pass BlockPBLK#52#48
Route RunningWR Rt#41#93
TacklingTkl#21#96
Run DefenseR Def#53#90
Pass Rush DefPRush#25#77
Coverage DefCov#11#71

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TROY | USM
Depth Chart: TROY | USM
Rosters: TROY | USM
(#76) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: -2.33 #76
Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Defense Rating: 7.12 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #110
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113
Talent Rating: 804.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #56
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.76 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.39 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Southern Miss has lost 8 straight
Southern Miss has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 1 (2 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)

Southern Miss Notes
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
(8/1) Def all new. 25 portals, 11 DL & 12 DBs
(8/1) Most of roster is new. Could be big turnaround
(8/1) New OC Anderson is a great OC, (Ut St HC)
(7/27) More return prod from Marshall than Marshall
(3/24) QB Braxton (Marsh) v good, mobile. Fun QB
(3/24) WR top 2 back, meh LY. 7 portal adds

Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss offense is good on 3rd downs
Southern Miss Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Southern Miss Secondary is very good (#1)
Southern Miss has a great TO Margin (#28)
Southern Miss defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss Can Not Run the Ball (#109)
Southern Miss Does Not Stuff Runs (#105)


  
Troy's OC Sean Reagan
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Will Crowder355860%374436.4
Tucker Kilcrease102935%65012.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows4426916.147
Jordan Lovett208304.215
Will Crowder175313.116
DJ Epps21206.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tray Taylor (Tr)597219.444
Roman Mothershed109019.027
Ethan Conner773110.424
Rara Thomas (Tr)54709.419

View Troy's Full Roster
Troy's DC Dontae Wright
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer262100
Devin Lafayette231102
Jaquez White180002
Taleeq Robbins (Tr)121101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith93220
Luis Medina62200
Jah-Mal Williams72210
Devin Lafayette231102
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Lafayette231102
Jaquez White180002
Taleeq Robbins (Tr)121101

Southern Miss's OC Blake Anderson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)689969%692727.0
Landy Lyddy1250%11005.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)2512625.023
Braylon Braxton (Tr)2910503.617
Robert Briggs (Tr)186913.815
Matt Jones (Tr)154002.78
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)10124012.448
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)5116023.241
Carl Chester (Tr)892011.523
Micah Davis (Tr)87439.321

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Jason Semore
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones301002
Michael Montgomery (Tr)270001
Josh Moten (Tr)240003
Ian Foster (Tr)231003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)153320
Jameer Lewis82100
Josh Battle (Tr)202100
Garrick Ponder52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)240003
Ian Foster (Tr)231003
Anthony Richard51003