Troy at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Troy logo Troy Trojans at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Southern Miss -6.5 (50.5) (-240)  Open: -6.5 | 50.5
Troy 28 - Southern Miss: 18  (Sun Belt)

 
Trojans (8 - 6) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Gerad Parker (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 5.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
USM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Southern Miss -3  (SP+ TROY -2.5)

Projected Score: TROY: 24 - USM: 27 (51)
USM Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
TROY Travel: 202 miles
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Troy vs Nicholls-16.546.5W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/6 Troy at Clemson+31.051.5L 16 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 Troy vs Memphis+4.551.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 9/20 Troy at Buffalo+5.543.5W 21 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Troy vs South Alabama+2.546.5W 31 - 24OY
Sat 10/11 Troy at Texas State+7.553.5W 48 - 41OY
Sat 10/18 Troy at UL Monroe-4.545.5W 37 - 14OY
Sat 10/25 Troy vs Louisiana-7.047.5W 35 - 23OY
Sat 11/1 Troy vs Arkansas State-7.552.5L 10 - 23UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/13 Troy at Old Dominion+9.553.5L 0 - 33UN
Sat 11/22 Troy vs Georgia State-9.551.0W 31 - 19UY
Sat 11/29 Troy at Southern Miss+6.550.5W 28 - 18UY
Fri 12/5 Troy at James Madison+24.547.5L 14 - 31UY
Tue 12/16 Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.047.5L 13 - 17UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Troy's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 9
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#111 (.1)38% (114)23.539% (113)2.82 (91)9838% (105)2093.67 (74)#54 (.12)40% (53)23.941% (60)39% (42)3.17 (31)52.11.31.3
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TROY#50 (.22)44% (49)42% (94)2.88 (95)15748% (15)2134.43 (22)#77 (.18)43% (87)45% (87)42% (76)3.77 (65)58.81.30.7
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Offense1423.523.438.2%3.671.317307982092.847%51%39%38%20%.1
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TROY Defense1423.925.940%3.171.3 - - - - - 54%44%41%39%16%.12
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Troy1429:5517.339%47%5.652.11.31.36.12.6331
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Offense1447% (85)39% (113)35.1982.817 (88).02 (117)2.82 (91)78% (26)12% (126)0.87 (114)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TROY Defense1454% (115)41% (60) - - - - .1 (67)3.01 (96)66% (32)11% (39)0.95 (63)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Offense1451% (55)38% (105)17.930.9209.26.811.720 (42)12 (88).17 (110)1.7 (25)34% (114)28% (97).28 (77)7% (116)2.2 (23)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TROY Defense1444% (20)39% (42) - - - - - - 10 (75).17 (39)1.7 (120)34% (29)28% (43).23 (45)6% (76)2.1 (102)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: -6.83  #93
Troy's Offense Rating: 2.52  #111
Troy's Defense Rating: 9.35  #77
2025 Talent Rating: 584.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Troy's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 5.4
Troy's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #83
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.1  #81

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: -6.83   Southern Miss: -2.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: -3.2   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.16  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 27
Troy 24


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Southern Miss 30
Troy 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 27
Troy 26

Total Points: 53
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Southern Miss18Troy28Southern Miss -6.5Troy50.5Under
202411/30Troy52Southern Miss20Troy -17.5Troy48.5Over
202311/25Southern Miss17Troy35Troy -16.5Troy48.5Over
202210/08Troy27Southern Miss10Troy -7Troy44.0Under
202109/18Southern Miss9Troy21Troy -11Troy49.0Under
201909/14Troy42Southern Miss47Troy -3Southern Miss49.0Over
201609/17Southern Miss31Troy37Southern Mississippi -11.5Troy61.0Over
200812/21Troy27Southern Miss30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss214 Overs
Troy663 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 62 - 52 - 30 - 2
Road Teams6 - 25 - 22 - 03 - 2

(#93) TROY at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTROYUSM
Power RatePwr #93 #85
SP+SP+ #83 #90
Perf GradeGrade #98 #36
OffenseOff #96 #76
DefenseDef #81 #10
Spec TeamsST #67 #40
TalentTal #100 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #56
Troy Notes
(11/29) Two bounce back wins to get to the SBC Title game
(11/29) Parker & staff incredible job in their 2nd season
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/11) Incredible comeback vs Tx St. 3 game win streak
(10/11) 3 straight wins as underdogs, real SBC threat?
(10/11) QB Kilcrease 415 yds, doubled season total vs Tx St
(9/23) DT Luis Medina huge game vs Buffalo
(9/20) Huge comeback W @ Buf, Def played great
(9/20) BU QB Kilcrease not good, QB3 Ale neither
(9/17) QB Crowder out multiple weeks (shoulder)
(8/30) QB Crowder meh, Run Off good vs Nicholls
(8/1) OL bad LY, 3/5 back, 5 portal adds. Looks Ok
Troy Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Troy on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #96 #10
SuccessSuc #114 #64
ExplosiveExp #39 #53
PPAPPA #111 #43
PowerPwr #111 #88
SP+SP+ #82 #102
Pts POPPO #74 #98
HavocHav #128 #32
Troy Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #129 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #113 #73
Run ExplRExp #114 #99
PPAExp #117 #93
Run BlockR Blk #108 -
OL YdsOLY #91 #87
Stuff RateStuff #126 #74
TackleTak -  #31
Troy Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
TROY OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #76 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #105 #64
Pass ExplPExl #25 #40
PPAExp #110 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #108 #33
F7 HavocF7 #126 #89
DB HavocDB #116 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffTROY Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #81
SuccessSuc #104 #53
ExplosiveExp #22 #86
PPAPPA #68 #54
PowerPwr #75 #77
SP+SP+ #67 #81
Pts POPPO #80 #31
HavocHav #91 #55
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffTROY Def
Run GameRun #116 #70
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #60
Run ExplRExp #79 #63
PPAExp #77 #67
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #96
Stuff RateStuff #71 #59
TackleTak -  #113
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffTROY Def
Pass GamePass #35 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #42
Pass ExplPExl #15 #120
PPAExp #57 #39
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #75
F7 HavocF7 #49 #39
DB HavocDB #121 #76
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TROY 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66° - Wind: 12 mph
Rematch from Week 14
Southern Miss -6.5 (50.5)
Troy won at Southern Miss this year (28-18)

Previous Matchups
Troy beat Southern Miss last year (52-20)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2023 (35-17)
Troy beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-10)

  
TROY's OC Sean Reagan (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tucker Kilcrease13022259%1537966.9
Will Crowder11519659%13271156.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tae Meadows15969564.447
Jordan Lovett8933923.822
Tucker Kilcrease11612651.134
Jarris Williams195713.013
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Rara Thomas (Tr)39629516.175
Tray Taylor (Tr)31513316.560
DJ Epps46498510.848
Ethan Conner31397312.839

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Dontae Wright (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Stringer12312314
Devin Lafayette1133105
Justin Powe751001
Jaquez White6741111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donnie Smith44141172
Jah-Mal Williams466543
Jamel Fils-Aime244310
Elijah Davis (Tr)446320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaquez White6741111
Devin Lafayette1133105
Kaleno Levine (Tr)454005

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127