UL Monroe at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
UL Monroe logo UL Monroe Warhawks at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, October 25th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Southern Miss -14 (48.5) (-600)  Open: -10.0
Southern Miss 49 - UL Monroe: 21  (Sun Belt)

 
Warhawks (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Bryant Vincent (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 17 - 32 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
ULM is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Southern Miss -12.5  (SP+ USM -15)

Projected Score: ULM: 19 - USM: 32 (51)
USM Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ULM Travel: 181 miles
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
 
UL Monroe's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 UL Monroe vs St. Francis (PA)-31.047.0W 29 - 0UN
Sat 9/6 UL Monroe at Alabama+34.050.0L 0 - 73ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 UL Monroe at UTEP+5.547.5W 31 - 25OY
Sat 9/27 UL Monroe vs Arkansas State-1.555.5W 28 - 16UY
Sat 10/4 UL Monroe at Northwestern+12.543.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 10/11 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina-3.046.5L 8 - 23UN
Sat 10/18 UL Monroe vs Troy+4.545.5L 14 - 37ON
Sat 10/25 UL Monroe at Southern Miss+14.048.5L 21 - 49ON
Sat 11/1 UL Monroe vs Old Dominion+16.555.5L 6 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 UL Monroe vs South Alabama+4.049.5L 14 - 26UN
Sat 11/22 UL Monroe at Texas State+20.559.5L 14 - 31UY
Sat 11/29 UL Monroe at Louisiana+10.547.5L 27 - 30OY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 2

Predictions for UL Monroe's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULM#115 (.09)36% (125)16.636% (127)2.7 (113)16338% (110)1603.19 (118)#87 (.19)41% (57)31.940% (43)42% (74)4.21 (118)651.60.8
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ULM#94 (.15)37% (121)40% (102)2.93 (87)17333% (128)1353.33 (117)#89 (.2)47% (120)53% (134)39% (53)4.12 (99)43.31.31.1
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULM Offense1216.615.436.5%3.191.6173221631604.654%43%36%38%21%.09
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ULM Defense1231.93940.9%4.210.8 - - - - - 51%48%40%42%14%.19
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UL Monroe1229:3717.433%38%7.3651.60.85.51.9026.8
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULM Offense1254% (35)36% (127)35.7162.64.612 (119).05 (106)2.7 (113)78% (28)13% (129)1.11 (14)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ULM Defense1251% (82)40% (43) - - - - .08 (55)2.83 (58)74% (93)10% (66)1.03 (103)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULM Offense1243% (105)38% (110)14.325.2159.66.311.215 (75)12 (108).21 (91)1.8 (7)37% (134)26% (113).16 (117)8% (119)2.3 (6)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ULM Defense1248% (60)42% (74) - - - - - - 5 (75).31 (100)1.7 (116)31% (82)32% (97).36 (104)5% (110)2.1 (112)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

UL Monroe's Power Ratings
UL Monroe's Power Rating: -9.05  #103
UL Monroe's Offense Rating: 3.62  #103
UL Monroe's Defense Rating: 12.67  #100
2025 Talent Rating: 398.00  #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
UL Monroe's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UL Monroe's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.7  #131
UL Monroe's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.3  #127
UL Monroe's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.2  #124

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -9.05   Southern Miss: -2.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UL Monroe: -20.7   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.16  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


UL Monroe Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.4
Defense: 31.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

UL Monroe's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 32
UL Monroe 19


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
Southern Miss 34
UL Monroe 18

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 33
UL Monroe 22

Total Points: 55
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Southern Miss49UL Monroe21Southern Miss -14Southern Miss48.5Over
202410/12UL Monroe38Southern Miss21UL Monroe -4.5UL Monroe41.0Over
202311/04Southern Miss24UL Monroe7Southern Mississippi -3.0Southern Miss56.0Under
202211/26UL Monroe10Southern Miss20Southern Mississippi -3Southern Miss49.5Under
201809/08Southern Miss20UL Monroe21Southern Mississippi -5UL Monroe67.5Under
201709/16UL Monroe17Southern Miss28Southern Mississippi -7Southern Miss55.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss442 Overs
UL Monroe224 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 33 - 33 - 10 - 2
Road Teams3 - 33 - 32 - 01 - 3

(#103) ULM at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatULMUSM
Power RatePwr #103 #85
SP+SP+ #131 #90
Perf GradeGrade #72 #36
OffenseOff #67 #76
DefenseDef #43 #10
Spec TeamsST #82 #40
TalentTal #126 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #56
UL Monroe Notes
(10/24) QB1 & QB2 Armenta & Herring doubtful vs So Miss
(10/12) Off has flushed, bad L @ C Car, 15 pts last 2 games
(10/9) Lost both kickers, holding search on campus
(9/21) Run Off better vs UTEP, QB Armenta still JAG-
(9/17) Offense is awful, no expl and can't protect QB
(9/17) Best Off weapon is small body RB McReynolds
(8/28) QB1 Armenta JAG- arm, has some mobility
(8/1) Can ULM get any QB play to help Run Off?
(8/1) RB McReynolds, P-Smith & watch for Fr D Ford
(8/1) Slow, run heavy Off (62%) to shorten, help D
(8/1) Secondary looks decent, Run Def awful again
(7/13) Smaller Def wore down LY, bigger in '25
UL Monroe Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
UL Monroe on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #10
SuccessSuc #125 #64
ExplosiveExp #6 #53
PPAPPA #115 #43
PowerPwr #103 #88
SP+SP+ #127 #102
Pts POPPO #118 #98
HavocHav #134 #32
UL Monroe Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #51 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #73
Run ExplRExp #14 #99
PPAExp #106 #93
Run BlockR Blk #59 -
OL YdsOLY #113 #87
Stuff RateStuff #130 #74
TackleTak -  #31
UL Monroe Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 43%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
ULM OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #113 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #110 #64
Pass ExplPExl #7 #40
PPAExp #91 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #33
F7 HavocF7 #129 #89
DB HavocDB #119 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffULM Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #43
SuccessSuc #104 #57
ExplosiveExp #22 #121
PPAPPA #68 #87
PowerPwr #75 #100
SP+SP+ #67 #124
Pts POPPO #80 #118
HavocHav #91 #100
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffULM Def
Run GameRun #116 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #43
Run ExplRExp #79 #103
PPAExp #77 #55
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #58
Stuff RateStuff #71 #87
TackleTak -  #48
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffULM Def
Pass GamePass #35 #59
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #74
Pass ExplPExl #15 #116
PPAExp #57 #100
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #70
F7 HavocF7 #49 #66
DB HavocDB #121 #110
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

ULM 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 72°Rain: 0.02
Rematch from Week 9
Southern Miss -14.0 (48.5)
Southern Miss won vs UL Monroe this year (49-21)

Previous Matchups
UL Monroe beat Southern Miss last year (38-21)
Southern Miss beat UL Monroe in 2023 (24-7)
Southern Miss beat UL Monroe in 2022 (20-10)

  
ULM's OC Bryant Vincent (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Armenta14725258%16191286.4
Landon Graves194048%185224.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Zachary Palmer-Smith11566045.756
Braylon McReynolds (Tr)12461435.074
Dorian Lewis2719507.272
Tyrell Reed Jr. (Tr)3513703.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonathan Bibbs26383314.768
Nic Trujillo (Tr)23368416.052
JP Coulter21234011.139
Jacob Godfrey16191211.937

View UL Monroe's Full Roster

ULM's DC Earnest Hill (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Noah Flemmings8010321
Jabari Tiller468301
Seidrion Langston363000
Marcus Ross (Tr)356220
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
Dylan Howell195440
Noah Flemmings8010321
Kevontay Wells334340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Arco Perkins-McAllister (Tr)344417
David Godsey Jr.260005
Jyren Ester193004

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127