Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Tuesday, October 21st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -5.5 (49.5) (-238) Open: -3.0
Western Kentucky 28 - Louisiana Tech: 27 (Conference USA)

Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

LT coming off BYE
Our Line: Western Kentucky -3 (SP+ WKU -3)
Projected Score: WKU: 27 - LT: 24 (51)
LT Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
WKU Travel: 467 miles

Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)

Matchup
Schedules
WKU Players
LT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-9.5	60.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-27.5	60.5	W 55 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+8.5	57.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8.5	54.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-3.5	59.5	W 27 - 22	U	Y
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	+2.5	62.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-9.5	55.5	L 6 - 25	U	N
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	+5.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-7.5	53.5	W 35 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-13.5	51.5	W 42 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+24.5	52.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5	56.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Tue 12/23	Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana	-14.5	50.5	W 24 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Louisiana Tech at LSU	+36.5	49.5	L 7 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/13	Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State	-10.0	42.5	W 49 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss	-3.0	51.5	W 30 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Louisiana Tech at UTEP	-3.5	48.5	W 30 - 11	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9	Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State	-4.5	46.5	L 7 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21	Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky	-5.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	N
Fri 10/31	Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston	-16.5	48.0	W 55 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Louisiana Tech at Delaware	-5.5	57.5	L 24 - 25	U	N
Sat 11/15	Louisiana Tech at Washington State	+10.0	43.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/22	Louisiana Tech vs Liberty	+1.5	45.5	W 34 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Louisiana Tech at Missouri State	+2.5	45.0	W 42 - 30	O	Y
Tue 12/30	Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina	-10.0	51.0	W 23 - 14	U	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	29.5	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	22.8	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5
LT	#130 (.02)	37% (119)	27.3	37% (122)	2.62 (125)	109	38% (111)	211	3.09 (124)	#26 (.1)	37% (13)	20.8	39% (36)	35% (11)	3.72 (61)	46.7	1.5	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	29.5	24.5	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19
LT Defense	13	20.8	17.3	37.2%	3.72	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	39%	35%	15%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	22.8	28	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21
LT Offense	13	27.3	36.5	37.5%	3.09	1.5	17	319	109	211	3.1	49%	51%	37%	38%	17%	.02

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7
Louisiana Tech	13	29:34	17.2	40%	35%	4.9	46.7	1.5	1.2	5.2	1.6	0	33.2

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)
LT Defense	13	56% (121)	39% (36)	-	-	-	-	.09 (54)	2.9 (50)	70% (48)	11% (52)	1.01 (82)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)
LT Offense	13	49% (78)	37% (122)	35.2	108.5	3.1	14 (98)	-.09 (134)	2.62 (125)	66% (114)	12% (116)	0.69 (134)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)
LT Defense	13	43% (9)	35% (11)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.15 (26)	1.6 (72)	35% (20)	29% (46)	.28 (56)	5% (112)	1.9 (30)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)
LT Offense	13	51% (56)	38% (111)	18.8	29.8	210.9	7.1	11.2	18 (68)	7 (26)	.13 (115)	1.7 (35)	33% (103)	26% (117)	.15 (127)	5% (22)	2.1 (27)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -6.35 #84
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.64 #104
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 13.99 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6 #69
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #78

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -6.35 Louisiana Tech: -5.565

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 1.6 Louisiana Tech: -1.3

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -5.565 #119
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 4.42 #120
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 19.25 #100
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.3 #77
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 564.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 27
Louisiana Tech 24

Projected Total Points: 51

Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/21	Louisiana Tech	27	Western Kentucky	28	Louisiana Tech -5.5	Western Kentucky	49.5	Over
2024	11/16	Western Kentucky	7	Louisiana Tech	12	Western Kentucky -11.5	Louisiana Tech	52.5	Under
2023	10/05	Louisiana Tech	28	Western Kentucky	35	Western Kentucky -6	Western Kentucky	59.0	Over
2018	11/24	Louisiana Tech	15	Western Kentucky	30	Louisiana Tech -10.5	Western Kentucky	49.0	Under
2017	09/16	Western Kentucky	22	Louisiana Tech	23	Western Kentucky -4.5	Louisiana Tech	62.0	Under
2016	10/06	Louisiana Tech	55	Western Kentucky	52	Louisiana Tech -1	Louisiana Tech	69.0	Over
2016	12/03	Western Kentucky	58	Louisiana Tech	44	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	78.5	Over
2015	09/10	Western Kentucky	41	Louisiana Tech	38	Western Kentucky -3	Push	62.5	Over
2014	11/01	Louisiana Tech	59	Western Kentucky	10	Louisiana Tech -3	Louisiana Tech	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisiana Tech	4	4	5 Overs
Western Kentucky	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 5	3 - 5	3 - 4	0 - 1
Road Teams	5 - 4	5 - 3	1 - 0	4 - 3

(#84) WKU at (#119) LT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	LT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#84	#119
SP+SP+	#69	#77
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#83
OffenseOff	#69	#108
DefenseDef	#71	#37
Spec TeamsST	#20	#32
TalentTal	#89	#122
Blue ChipsBC%	#88	#79

Western Kentucky Notes(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Louisiana Tech Notes(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#69	#37
SuccessSuc	#83	#13
ExplosiveExp	#33	#57
PPAPPA	#66	#26
PowerPwr	#104	#100
SP+SP+	#56	#68
Pts POPPO	#78	#61
HavocHav	#73	#76

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LT Def
Run GameRun	#72	#34
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#36
Run ExplRExp	#75	#82
PPAExp	#121	#54
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#50
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#41
TackleTak	-	#80

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	LT Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#11
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#72
PPAExp	#28	#26
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#48	#108
F7 HavocF7	#87	#52
DB HavocDB	#56	#112

Louisiana Tech on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#108	#71
SuccessSuc	#119	#102
ExplosiveExp	#113	#36
PPAPPA	#130	#95
PowerPwr	#120	#71
SP+SP+	#77	#78
Pts POPPO	#124	#54
HavocHav	#83	#122

Louisiana Tech Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#33	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	#113
Run ExplRExp	#134	#35
PPAExp	#134	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	#125	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#119	#128
TackleTak	-	#119

Louisiana Tech Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	LT Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#120	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#128
PPAExp	#115	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#67	#81
F7 HavocF7	#116	#88
DB HavocDB	#22	#132

Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Louisiana Tech -5.5 (49.5)
Western Kentucky won at Louisiana Tech this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Louisiana Tech last year (28-27)
Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky in 2024 (12-7)
Western Kentucky beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (35-28)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	183	273	67%	2062	12	6	7.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	139	212	66%	1432	9	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvis Parrish	106	576	1	5.4	66
La'Vell Wright (Tr)	85	471	10	5.5	39
George Hart III	70	300	5	4.3	36
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	52	108	2	2.1	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)	55	888	6	16.1	55
K.D. Hutchinson	66	618	3	9.4	78
Moussa Barry	34	488	1	14.4	48
Noah Meyers	32	357	3	11.2	62

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)	106	7	2	3	2
Anthony Brackenridge	74	5	1	2	3
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	0	5
Dave Herard	58	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	20	4	3	0	0
Koron Hayward	19	4	3	2	1
Jalen Emery (Tr)	18	3	2	1	3
Harper Holloman	39	6	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nazir Ward	35	3	1	6
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	5
Jai Eugene Jr.	21	2	1	5

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Baker	102	155	66%	1252	5	3	8.1
Trey Kukuk	67	106	63%	644	3	4	6.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Clay Thevenin	131	634	8	4.8	50
Trey Kukuk	98	609	5	6.2	58
Andrew Burnette	94	486	9	5.2	98
Omiri Wiggins	97	468	4	4.8	37

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Finley	38	445	0	11.7	73
Marlion Jackson	20	370	2	18.5	52
Devin Gandy (Tr)	21	366	2	17.4	42
Clay Thevenin	33	269	0	8.2	30

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Fields	90	3	0	1	5
Mekhi Mason	62	15	4	3	4
Jadon Mayfield	61	9	4	5	1
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jadon Mayfield	61	9	4	5	1
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8
Mekhi Mason	62	15	4	3	4
Donovan Rieman	29	5	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.	47	2	0	0	9
Sifa Leota	58	12	4	7	8
Cedric Woods	34	1	0	1	8