Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech - 2025 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana Tech logo
Tuesday, October 21st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -5.5 (49.5) (-238)  Open: -3.0
Western Kentucky 28 - Louisiana Tech: 27  (Conference USA)

 
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
LT coming off BYE
Our Line: Western Kentucky -4.5  (SP+ WKU -1)

Projected Score: WKU: 27 - LT: 23 (50)
LT Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
WKU Travel: 467 miles
Bulldogs (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (11 - 25)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (37 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 5.2 (#57)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana-14.550.5W 24 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 Louisiana Tech at LSU+36.549.5L 7 - 23UY
Sat 9/13 Louisiana Tech vs New Mexico State-10.042.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 9/20 Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss-3.051.5W 30 - 20UY
Sat 9/27 Louisiana Tech at UTEP-3.548.5W 30 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State-4.546.5L 7 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/21 Louisiana Tech vs Western Kentucky-5.549.5L 27 - 28ON
Fri 10/31 Louisiana Tech vs Sam Houston-16.548.0W 55 - 14OY
Sat 11/8 Louisiana Tech at Delaware-5.557.5L 24 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 Louisiana Tech at Washington State+10.043.5L 3 - 28UN
Sat 11/22 Louisiana Tech vs Liberty+1.545.5W 34 - 28OY
Sat 11/29 Louisiana Tech at Missouri State+2.545.0W 42 - 30OY
Tue 12/30 Louisiana Tech vs Coastal Carolina-10.051.0W 23 - 14UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#74 (.17)43% (58)29.545% (52)2.97 (62)12342% (64)2524.21 (30)#42 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (26)36% (18)2.72 (11)55.61.41
LT#85 (.15)41% (93)27.343% (80)2.98 (60)18139% (103)1553.33 (107)#27 (.07)39% (30)20.840% (40)38% (38)3.05 (22)68.711.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1329.524.543.2%4.211.4203741232524.242%57%45%42%15%.17
LT Defense1320.817.338.6%3.051.7 - - - - - 45%53%40%38%19%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1322.82837%2.721 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
LT Offense1327.336.540.8%3.331183371811554.858%40%43%39%14%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1327:102045%33%5.655.61.414.91.2228.2
Louisiana Tech1327:3518.243%50%6.868.711.75.31.4728.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (52)29.2122.74.220 (78).09 (81)2.97 (62)81% (12)9% (49)0.92 (84)
LT Defense1345% (15)40% (40) - - - - .05 (41)2.72 (33)68% (47)9% (78)1.12 (128)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1346% (22)39% (26) - - - - .09 (61)2.79 (52)55% (3)9% (94)1.13 (130)
LT Offense1358% (15)43% (80)37.5181.24.828 (88).16 (47)2.98 (60)75% (49)8% (42)1.05 (35)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (64)23.335251.67.210.821 (42)11 (60).24 (72)1.5 (89)33% (100)34% (24).36 (45)6% (89)1.9 (104)
LT Defense1353% (121)38% (38) - - - - - - 20 (4).14 (25)1.6 (79)35% (19)32% (94).25 (56)10% (1)1.9 (46)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1352% (109)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).16 (33)1.5 (62)34% (32)27% (31).23 (43)7% (17)2 (69)
LT Offense1340% (124)39% (103)14.422.6155.46.910.87 (121)9 (34).19 (99)1.5 (70)30% (40)26% (112).23 (97)6% (54)2.3 (9)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.54  #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30  #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 3.54   Louisiana Tech: -2.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 0.4   Louisiana Tech: -0.8




Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -2.64  #107
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 0.92  #122
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 10.40  #81
2025 Talent Rating: 472.00  #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 2  #79
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 5.2
Louisiana Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.8  #76
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #77
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1  #70

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 27
Louisiana Tech 23


Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisiana Tech 28
Western Kentucky 22

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana Tech 29
Western Kentucky 23

Total Points: 52
Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 27.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.5
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Louisiana Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/21Louisiana Tech27Western Kentucky28Louisiana Tech -5.5Western Kentucky49.5Over
202411/16Western Kentucky7Louisiana Tech12Western Kentucky -11.5Louisiana Tech52.5Under
202310/05Louisiana Tech28Western Kentucky35Western Kentucky -6Western Kentucky59.0Over
201811/24Louisiana Tech15Western Kentucky30Louisiana Tech -10.5Western Kentucky49.0Under
201709/16Western Kentucky22Louisiana Tech23Western Kentucky -4.5Louisiana Tech62.0Under
201610/06Louisiana Tech55Western Kentucky52Louisiana Tech -1Louisiana Tech69.0Over
201612/03Western Kentucky58Louisiana Tech44Western Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky78.5Over
201509/10Western Kentucky41Louisiana Tech38Western Kentucky -3Push62.5Over
201411/01Louisiana Tech59Western Kentucky10Louisiana Tech -3Louisiana Tech0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Louisiana Tech445 Overs
Western Kentucky543 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 53 - 53 - 40 - 1
Road Teams5 - 45 - 31 - 04 - 3

(#57) WKU at (#107) LT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWKULT
Power RatePwr #57 #107
SP+SP+ #70 #76
Perf GradeGrade #55 #85
OffenseOff #64 #97
DefenseDef #54 #50
Spec TeamsST #28 #49
TalentTal #89 #122
Blue ChipsBC% #88 #79
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/10) QB1 Blake Baker out for season (torn ACL)
(10/22) Criminal clock management costly vs WKU
(10/22) QB Baker torched WKU for 340 yds and 49 rushing
(10/22) Most penalized team in CUSA, Def good but leaking
(10/21) QB1 Blake Baker, JAG w/ some mobility
(10/10) Give Cumbie 2 weeks he gets routed by Kennesaw St
(10/9) Lead CFB w/ 13 TOs & 5 Def TD. Allow 14 ppg
(9/21) Shockingly good start, box score ugly vs SMiss
(9/21) Off 2-13 on 3rd down, 2.7 ypc vs S Miss and won?
(9/17) Played hard vs LSU, Def great in red zone early
(5/20) OC Franklin - a legend of tempo, simplicity
(5/2) TE Eli Finley a good target, best on team
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLT Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #50
SuccessSuc #58 #30
ExplosiveExp #70 #119
PPAPPA #74 #27
PowerPwr #77 #81
SP+SP+ #60 #70
Pts POPPO #30 #22
HavocHav #61 #12
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #74 #55
Run SuccessRSuc #52 #40
Run ExplRExp #84 #128
PPAExp #81 #41
Run BlockR Blk #91 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #33
Stuff RateStuff #99 #12
TackleTak -  #79
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #47 #30
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #38
Pass ExplPExl #89 #79
PPAExp #72 #25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #34 #120
F7 HavocF7 #49 #78
DB HavocDB #89 #1
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #97 #54
SuccessSuc #93 #19
ExplosiveExp #74 #116
PPAPPA #85 #42
PowerPwr #122 #39
SP+SP+ #77 #80
Pts POPPO #107 #11
HavocHav #48 #58
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
LT OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #28 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #80 #26
Run ExplRExp #35 #130
PPAExp #47 #61
Run BlockR Blk #110 -
OL YdsOLY #60 #52
Stuff RateStuff #46 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatLT OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #117 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #103 #18
Pass ExplPExl #70 #62
PPAExp #99 #33
Pass Block/RushP Blk #62 #70
F7 HavocF7 #42 #94
DB HavocDB #54 #17
Program Comparison
LT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Joe Aillet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 73° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Louisiana Tech -5.5 (49.5)
Western Kentucky won at Louisiana Tech this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
Louisiana Tech beat Western Kentucky last year (12-7)
Western Kentucky beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (35-28)

  
WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jai Eugene Jr.212105
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005

LT's OC Tony Franklin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Baker10215566%1252538.1
Trey Kukuk588767%530236.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Clay Thevenin12160585.050
Trey Kukuk7948856.258
Omiri Wiggins9746844.837
Andrew Burnette7745385.998
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Finley37441011.973
Devin Gandy (Tr)21366217.442
Marlion Jackson17283116.642
Clay Thevenin2925108.730

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Luke Olson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Fields903015
Mekhi Mason6215434
Jadon Mayfield579440
Jakari Foster511034
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jadon Mayfield579440
Mekhi Mason6215434
Donovan Rieman285301
Sifa Leota489268
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhamal Shelby Jr.472009
Sifa Leota489268
Cedric Woods321008