Western Kentucky at Old Dominion - 2023 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Old Dominion Monarchs

Monday, December 18th 2023 (2:30 PM EST)
Old Dominion -4.0 (49.0) (-130) Open: -2.5 | 56.0
Western Kentucky 38 - Old Dominion: 35 (Famous Toastery Bowl)

Hilltoppers (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (34 - 22)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#49)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Western Kentucky -7.5 (SP+ WKU -8.5)
Projected Score: WKU: 28 - ODU: 21 (49)
ODU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 339 miles, 1 hrs behind

Monarchs (6 - 7) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Ricky Rahne (10 - 18)
Avg Score : 32 - 19 (34 - 9 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.7 - 7.3 (#83)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
WKU Players
ODU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Western Kentucky vs South Florida	-13.5	71.5	W 41 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian	-41.5	64.5	W 52 - 22	O	N
Sat 9/16	Western Kentucky at Ohio State	+29.5	65.0	L 10 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/23	Western Kentucky at Troy	+3.5	57.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Thu 9/28	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-6.5	61.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Thu 10/5	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-6.0	59.0	W 35 - 28	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-7.5	60.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Tue 10/24	Western Kentucky vs Liberty	+4.0	61.5	L 29 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/4	Western Kentucky at UTEP	-9.5	54.5	W 21 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/11	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-4.5	55.5	L 29 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/18	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-12.5	52.0	W 28 - 23	U	N
Sat 11/25	Western Kentucky at Florida International	-11.5	54.0	W 41 - 28	O	Y
Mon 12/18	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Old Dominion's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Old Dominion at Virginia Tech	+16.0	48.0	L 17 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/9	Old Dominion vs Louisiana	+6.0	51.0	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Old Dominion vs Wake Forest	+13.5	60.0	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Old Dominion vs East Texas A&M	-18.5
Sat 9/30	Old Dominion at Marshall	+14.5	47.0	L 35 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Old Dominion at Southern Miss	+3.0	56.5	W 17 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Old Dominion vs App State	+6.0	56.0	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Old Dominion at James Madison	+19.5	48.0	L 27 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina	+1.0	51.0	L 24 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/11	Old Dominion at Liberty	+13.5	58.5	L 10 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Old Dominion at Georgia Southern	+4.5	61.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Old Dominion vs Georgia State	-2.0	49.5	W 25 - 24	U	N
Mon 12/18	Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky	-4.0	49.0	L 35 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	.28	44%	29.5	43%	3.17	145	46%	352	3.63	.11	41%	22.8	44%	40%	4.02	57.5	1.6	2.9
ODU	.12	34%	32	36%	2.79	91	34%	248	3.35	.23	43%	18.5	43%	45%	3.21	63.8	1.5	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ODU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	14	29.5	24.5	44.5%	3.63	1.6	25	497	145	352	4.9	37%	62%	43%	46%	17%	.28
ODU Defense	12	18.5	8.5	43.3%	3.21	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	57%	42%	43%	45%	15%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	14	22.8	28	41.4%	4.02	2.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	44%	40%	17%	.11
ODU Offense	12	32	34.3	34.3%	3.35	1.5	16	340	91	248	3.5	37%	62%	36%	34%	22%	.12

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	14	28:57	24.6	42%	40%	6.2	57.5	1.6	2.9	4.9	2.3	5	30
Old Dominion	12	24:07	15.8	30%	35%	6.9	63.8	1.5	1.9	6.2	2.6	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	14	37%	43%	29.6	145.1	4.9	15	.18	3.17	71%	7%	1.05
ODU Defense	12	57%	43%	-	-	-	-	.14	3.1	75%	10%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	14	48%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	79%	10%	0.96
ODU Offense	12	37%	36%	25.8	91.4	3.5	8	-.02	2.79	69%	12%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	14	62%	46%	28.7	44.4	352.3	7.9	12.3	43	12	.39	1.7	31%	37%	.52	10%	2.4
ODU Defense	12	42%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.39	1.6	30%	30%	.33	5%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	14	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.12	1.4	33%	25%	.14	7%	2
ODU Offense	12	62%	34%	19.8	34.8	248.1	7.1	12.6	19	7	.2	1.7	38%	24%	.24	9%	2.2

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -1.01 #70
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 18.92 #46
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 9.89 #70
2023 Talent Rating: 491.26 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Western Kentucky's 2023 Expected Record: 7.60 - 5.40
Western Kentucky's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.5 #72
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.4 #55
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #86

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 303.49
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.01 Old Dominion: -8.73

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -1.5 Old Dominion: -10.2

Old Dominion's Power Ratings
Old Dominion's Power Rating: -8.73 #102
Old Dominion's Offense Rating: 11.50 #114
Old Dominion's Defense Rating: 8.69 #56
2023 Talent Rating: 343.17 #122
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Old Dominion's 2023 Expected Record: 5.70 - 7.30
Old Dominion's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2 #105
Old Dominion's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #97
Old Dominion's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #92

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 28
Old Dominion 21

Projected Total Points: 49

Old Dominion Scoring
Offense: 32 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.3
Defense: 18.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 8.5

Old Dominion's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/18	Old Dominion	35	Western Kentucky	38	Old Dominion -4.0	Western Kentucky	49.0	Over
2021	10/16	Old Dominion	20	Western Kentucky	43	Western Kentucky -13.5	Western Kentucky	66.5	Under
2019	10/05	Old Dominion	3	Western Kentucky	20	Western Kentucky -2.5	Western Kentucky	42.0	Under
2018	10/20	Western Kentucky	34	Old Dominion	37	Western Kentucky -4	Old Dominion	55.0	Over
2017	10/20	Old Dominion	31	Western Kentucky	35	Western Kentucky -6.5	Old Dominion	50.0	Over
2016	10/22	Western Kentucky	59	Old Dominion	24	Western Kentucky -13	Western Kentucky	65.0	Over
2015	10/31	Old Dominion	30	Western Kentucky	55	Western Kentucky -24	Western Kentucky	66.0	Over
2014	10/25	Western Kentucky	66	Old Dominion	51	Western Kentucky -11.5	Western Kentucky	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Old Dominion	1	2	5 Overs
Western Kentucky	7	6	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 6	3 - 5	2 - 2	1 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 2	5 - 3	3 - 1	2 - 2

Western Kentucky Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Toastery Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35
2022	Orleans Bowl	Western Kentucky vs South Alabama	+4.0	58.0	W 44 - 23
2021	Raton Bowl	Western Kentucky vs App State	+3.0	67.0	W 59 - 38
2020	Lendingtree Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Georgia State	+3.5	50.5	L 21 - 39
2019	Responder Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan	-3.0	56.0	W 23 - 20
2017	Cure Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Georgia State	+5.0	54.5	L 17 - 27

Old Dominion Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Toastery Bowl	Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky	-4.0	49.0	L 35 - 38
2021	Beach Bowl	Old Dominion vs Tulsa	+7.5	55.0	L 17 - 30

(#70) WKU at (#102) ODU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	ODU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#70	#102
SP+SP+	#72	#105
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#107
OffenseOff	#111	#131
DefenseDef	#90	#35
Spec TeamsST	#33	#101
TalentTal	#89	#122
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Western Kentucky Injury Report

Old Dominion Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense


CategoryCat	WKU Off	ODU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#111	#35
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#46	#56
SP+SP+	#55	#92
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Western Kentucky Run Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	ODU Def
Run GameRun	#133	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#127	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#9

Western Kentucky Pass Game


CategoryCat	WKU Off	ODU Def
Pass GamePass	#75	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#83	#129
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Old Dominion on Offense


CategoryCat	ODU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#131	#90
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#114	#70
SP+SP+	#97	#86
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Old Dominion Run Game


CategoryCat	ODU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#67	#122
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#128	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#128

Old Dominion Pass Game


CategoryCat	ODU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#97	#35
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#125	#63
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ODU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jerry Richardson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Old Dominion -4.0 (49.0)
Western Kentucky won at Old Dominion this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Old Dominion in 2023 (38-35)

WKU's OC Drew Hollingshead (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Austin Reed (Tr)	289	470	62%	3324	31	11	7.1
Caden Veltkamp	41	54	76%	387	5	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	104	490	3	4.7	64
Markese Stepp	69	310	3	4.5	56
Davion Ervin-Poindexter	63	241	1	3.8	18
LT Sanders	31	138	0	4.5	56

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malachi Corley	79	984	11	12.5	75
Dalvin Smith	50	513	6	10.3	45
Easton Messer	42	484	4	11.5	35
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)	20	326	2	16.3	39

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Talique Allen (Tr)	48	1	0	1	3
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Desmyn Baker	41	3	1	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendrick Simpkins	50	12	8	8	1
Kylan Guidry	48	6	3	1	0
Sebastian Benjamin	25	3	3	2	0
Hosea Wheeler	40	4	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Upton Stout	24	1	1	5	8
Rome Weber	19	1	0	0	7
Anthony Johnson Jr.	36	1	0	0	5

ODU's OC Kevin Decker (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Grant Wilson	178	312	57%	2149	17	8	6.9
Jack Shields	25	47	53%	353	2	3	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway	88	623	5	7.1	75
Keshawn Wicks	120	588	4	4.9	36
Grant Wilson	130	292	4	2.2	79
Obasanjo Sanni	57	248	1	4.4	67

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Reymello Murphy	28	502	3	17.9	61
Kelby Williams	26	451	2	17.3	78
Isiah Paige	43	445	2	10.3	42
Javon Harvey	29	391	4	13.5	68

View Old Dominion's Full Roster

ODU's DC Blake Seiler (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Henderson	165	19	5	5	0
Wayne Matthews III	135	10	4	0	3
Terry Jones	104	4	0	3	4
Shawn Asbury II	95	6	0	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Henderson	165	19	5	5	0
Wayne Matthews III	135	10	4	0	3
Denzel Lowry	46	5	3	1	1
Mario Thompson	43	6	2	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Rasheed Reason	34	3	0	7
Lamareon James	60	1	0	7
Nolan Johnson	38	1	1	6