Southern Miss at South Alabama - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at South Alabama JaguarsSouth Alabama logo
Saturday, November 22nd 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Southern Miss -2.5 (53.0) (-125)  Open: -3.0 | 55.5
South Alabama 42 - Southern Miss: 35  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: Southern Miss -5  (SP+ USM -6.5)
Projected Score: USM: 29 - USA: 24 (52)
USM Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USM Travel: 88 miles
Jaguars (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (6 - 6)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
South Alabama's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 South Alabama vs Morgan State-28.551.5W 38 - 21ON
Sat 9/6 South Alabama vs Tulane+13.551.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 9/13 South Alabama at Auburn+26.556.5L 15 - 31UY
Sat 9/20 South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina-14.551.5L 20 - 38ON
Sat 9/27 South Alabama at North Texas+13.563.5L 22 - 36UN
Sat 10/4 South Alabama at Troy-2.546.5L 24 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 South Alabama vs Arkansas State-8.557.5L 14 - 15UN
Thu 10/23 South Alabama at Georgia State-5.554.5W 38 - 31OY
Sat 11/1 South Alabama vs Louisiana-3.552.5L 22 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 South Alabama at UL Monroe-4.049.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 South Alabama vs Southern Miss+2.553.0W 42 - 35OY
Sat 11/29 South Alabama at Texas State+9.562.5L 26 - 49ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 4

Predictions for South Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
USA#80 (.16)42% (83)26.543% (77)3.03 (55)20140% (94)1814.01 (40)#117 (.24)43% (88)30.447% (117)40% (47)4.35 (127)54.911.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
USA#5 (.34)50% (9)53% (4)3.57 (6)19947% (18)2434.66 (13)#58 (.15)41% (58)39% (28)43% (96)3.66 (56)70.80.91.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1328.828.439.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18
USA Defense1230.428.843.2%4.351.3 - - - - - 54%44%47%40%15%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1327.427.641.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
USA Offense1226.527.841.5%4.011213822011814.660%38%43%40%13%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
South Alabama1231:0820.643%54%6.554.911.34.71028.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)
USA Defense1254% (119)47% (117) - - - - .18 (111)3.15 (109)91% (136)8% (108)0.92 (51)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
USA Offense1260% (10)43% (77)44.3201.24.630 (60).14 (59)3.03 (55)76% (40)9% (54)1.02 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)
USA Defense1244% (19)40% (47) - - - - - - 6 (100).34 (113)1.8 (129)33% (40)29% (63).37 (105)6% (59)2.3 (129)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
USA Offense1238% (125)40% (94)17.725.8181.1710.313 (86)6 (34).23 (80)1.5 (81)31% (56)27% (102).28 (73)4% (19)2.1 (32)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -3.72  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -3.72   South Alabama: -9.42

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -5.6   South Alabama: -11.9




South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -9.42  #119
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 5.24  #89
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 17.18  #119
2025 Talent Rating: 562.00  #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
South Alabama's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
South Alabama's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #113
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.6  #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 29
South Alabama 24


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Southern Miss 25
South Alabama 20

Total Points: 45

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 29
South Alabama 27

Total Points: 56
South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22South Alabama42Southern Miss35Southern Miss -2.5South Alabama53.0Over
202411/23Southern Miss14South Alabama35South Alabama -24Southern Miss54.0Under
202310/17South Alabama55Southern Miss3South Alabama -18.5South Alabama51.0Over
202211/19Southern Miss20South Alabama27South Alabama -7.5Southern Miss45.0Over
202109/04South Alabama31Southern Miss7South Alabama -2South Alabama56.5Under
202009/03Southern Miss21South Alabama32Southern Mississippi -12.5South Alabama55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Alabama643 Overs
Southern Miss023 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 35 - 12 - 13 - 0
Road Teams3 - 31 - 50 - 31 - 2

(#85) USM at (#119) USA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSMUSA
Power RatePwr #85 #119
SP+SP+ #90 #113
Perf GradeGrade #36 #101
OffenseOff #76 #88
DefenseDef #10 #96
Spec TeamsST #40 #61
TalentTal #52 #103
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #101
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
South Alabama Notes
(10/15) HC Applewhite & staff on thin ice after 0-6 streak
(10/15) Strange trend, 7 pts 1Q, 0 2Q in past 3 games
(9/21) Off bad, Def worse. Flags, TO's, not buttoned up
(8/30) Meh W over Morgan, Davenport decent, Def ?
(8/1) Hit hard by portal, talent down TY, bowl is ?
(8/1) OL was decent LY, 4/5 back. 7 portals. Looks good
(7/13) QB1 Davenport likely, started 1, Pryon (GT) add
(5/23) New OC Petrino downgrade from Ezell (Wake)
(4/14) Losing QB Lopez (portal) huge blow, esp in spring
(3/24) RB Bullock a good one, lost Bothwell to MSU
(3/24) WR rebuild. Voisin/Eager have exp. Some depth
(3/24) Def was OK LY, 7 portal adds, replace a lot
South Alabama Injury Report
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffUSA Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #96
SuccessSuc #104 #88
ExplosiveExp #22 #72
PPAPPA #68 #117
PowerPwr #75 #119
SP+SP+ #67 #126
Pts POPPO #80 #127
HavocHav #91 #94
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffUSA Def
Run GameRun #116 #112
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #117
Run ExplRExp #79 #51
PPAExp #77 #111
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #109
Stuff RateStuff #71 #102
TackleTak -  #129
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffUSA Def
Pass GamePass #35 #31
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #47
Pass ExplPExl #15 #129
PPAExp #57 #113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #45 #130
F7 HavocF7 #49 #108
DB HavocDB #121 #59
South Alabama on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatUSA OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #88 #10
SuccessSuc #83 #64
ExplosiveExp #94 #53
PPAPPA #80 #43
PowerPwr #89 #88
SP+SP+ #80 #102
Pts POPPO #40 #98
HavocHav #30 #32
South Alabama Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCat
USA OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #10 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #73
Run ExplRExp #50 #99
PPAExp #59 #93
Run BlockR Blk #133 -
OL YdsOLY #55 #87
Stuff RateStuff #26 #74
TackleTak -  #31
South Alabama Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 38%
CategoryCatUSA OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #107 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #94 #64
Pass ExplPExl #81 #40
PPAExp #80 #22
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #33
F7 HavocF7 #54 #89
DB HavocDB #19 #10
Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79°
Rematch from Week 13
Southern Miss 2.5 (53.0)
South Alabama won vs Southern Miss this year (42-35)

Previous Matchups
South Alabama beat Southern Miss last year (35-14)
South Alabama beat Southern Miss in 2023 (55-3)
South Alabama beat Southern Miss in 2022 (27-20)

  
USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127

USA's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bishop Davenport20029468%20721267.0
Jared Hollins121675%101106.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kentrel Bullock2181085145.064
Keenan Phillips12662234.954
Bishop Davenport11632692.856
PJ Martin6032625.438
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Voisin67775411.665
Jeremy Scott24417417.474
Anthony Eager4033918.548
Miller McCrumby (Tr)1512808.532

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blayne Myrick846033
Christopher Wallace Jr.734000
Darius McKenzie714111
Tirrell Johnson Jr.546131
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Thomas163220
Nathan Jennings132200
E'Mauri Smiley151110
Emmanuel Waller (Tr)143120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Ty Goodwill355007
Jayvon Henderson (Tr)272005