Western Kentucky at James Madison - 2024 Matchup Preview

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs James Madison Dukes

Wednesday, December 18th 2024 (5:30 PM EST)
James Madison -7.5 (50.5) (-285) Open: 0.0
James Madison 27 - Western Kentucky: 17 (Boca Raton Bowl)

Hilltoppers (8 - 6) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (40 - 26)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 6 (#42)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: James Madison -6.5 (SP+ JMU -10)
Projected Score: WKU: 23 - JMU: 29 (52)
JMU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
WKU Travel: 822 miles, 1 hrs behind

Dukes (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Bob Chesney (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (40 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
WKU Players
JMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Western Kentucky's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Western Kentucky at Alabama	+31.0	60.0	L 0 - 63	O	N
Sat 9/7	Western Kentucky vs Eastern Kentucky	-18.5	59.5	W 31 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee	-10.5	53.5	W 49 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Western Kentucky vs Toledo	+2.0	60.5	W 26 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Western Kentucky at Boston College	+7.5	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10	Western Kentucky vs UTEP	-19.0	55.5	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Wed 10/16	Western Kentucky at Sam Houston	+1.5	55.0	W 31 - 14	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/30	Western Kentucky vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.0	W 31 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/9	Western Kentucky at New Mexico State	-18.0	53.5	W 41 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/16	Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech	-11.5	52.5	L 7 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/23	Western Kentucky at Liberty	+1.0	56.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/30	Western Kentucky vs Jacksonville State	+0.5	62.5	W 19 - 17	U	Y
Fri 12/6	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	+4.5	58.5	L 12 - 52	O	N
Wed 12/18	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

James Madison's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	James Madison at Charlotte	-6.5	47.5	W 30 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	James Madison vs Gardner-Webb	-35.5	50.5	W 13 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	James Madison at North Carolina	+10.0	48.0	W 70 - 50	O	Y
Sat 9/28	James Madison vs Ball State	-22.0	56.5	W 63 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/5	James Madison at UL Monroe	-16.5	48.5	L 19 - 21	U	N
Thu 10/10	James Madison vs Coastal Carolina	-7.0	59.0	W 39 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/19	James Madison at Georgia Southern	-9.5	58.5	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/26	James Madison vs Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 32 - 15	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	James Madison vs Georgia State	-14.5	53.5	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	James Madison at Old Dominion	-1.5	51.0	W 35 - 32	O	Y
Sat 11/23	James Madison at App State	-7.5	57.5	L 20 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/30	James Madison vs Marshall	-2.5	52.5	L 33 - 35	O	N
Wed 12/18	James Madison vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU	#47 (.22)	40% (92)	29.5	38% (119)	3.07 (78)	107	41% (70)	295	4.95 (6)	#81 (.2)	44% (98)	22.8	48% (121)	41% (53)	4 (87)	36.8	1.8	1.8
JMU	#44 (.24)	46% (27)	37.1	40% (102)	2.75 (121)	133	52% (7)	286	3.92 (64)	#14 (.09)	33% (4)	18.4	29% (1)	37% (19)	2.86 (9)	40.1	1.2	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
JMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Offense	13	29.5	24.5	40%	4.95	1.8	20	402	107	295	3.9	38%	61%	38%	41%	16%	.22
JMU Defense	13	18.4	15	33.2%	2.86	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	29%	37%	24%	.09

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
WKU Defense	13	22.8	28	44%	4	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	48%	41%	14%	.2
JMU Offense	13	37.1	40	45.6%	3.92	1.2	21	419	133	286	3.9	47%	52%	40%	52%	17%	.24

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Western Kentucky	13	29:32	20.2	43%	62%	4.5	36.8	1.8	1.8	4.4	2	1	28.2
James Madison	13	31:15	21.2	37%	50%	5.5	40.1	1.2	1.6	8.5	3.4	3	33.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Offense	13	38% (128)	38% (119)	27.5	106.6	3.9	12 (116)	.06 (117)	3.07 (78)	76% (45)	8% (23)	0.93 (99)
JMU Defense	13	42% (6)	29% (1)	-	-	-	-	-.04 (8)	2.18 (1)	61% (10)	15% (2)	1.13 (117)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
WKU Defense	13	52% (94)	48% (121)	-	-	-	-	.19 (98)	3.47 (125)	73% (65)	9% (109)	0.96 (45)
JMU Offense	13	47% (94)	40% (102)	34.2	133.2	3.9	17 (81)	.03 (121)	2.75 (121)	57% (131)	10% (69)	0.89 (114)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Offense	13	61% (6)	41% (70)	26.4	41.5	295.2	7.1	11.2	38 (3)	14 (107)	.35 (42)	1.7 (29)	33% (90)	31% (69)	.39 (46)	9% (128)	2.4 (4)
JMU Defense	13	57% (127)	37% (19)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.24 (51)	1.7 (115)	38% (5)	27% (24)	.28 (48)	9% (4)	2.1 (77)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
WKU Defense	13	47% (37)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.27 (64)	1.6 (69)	31% (80)	32% (99)	.37 (97)	6% (81)	1.9 (26)
JMU Offense	13	52% (43)	52% (7)	22.2	33	285.8	8.7	12.9	36 (5)	11 (68)	.48 (13)	1.5 (90)	29% (25)	33% (51)	.38 (51)	7% (98)	2 (74)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -8.09 #92
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 19.32 #71
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 11.86 #86
2024 Talent Rating: 203.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Western Kentucky's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 6.0
Western Kentucky's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.2 #78
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.1 #101
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #62

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 177.5
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -8.09 James Madison: 1.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -2.2 James Madison: 7.5

James Madison's Power Ratings
James Madison's Power Rating: 1.385 #82
James Madison's Offense Rating: 15.14 #106
James Madison's Defense Rating: 4.30 #23
2024 Talent Rating: 172.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
James Madison's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
James Madison's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.5 #41
James Madison's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7 #49
James Madison's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.9 #40

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
James Madison 29
Western Kentucky 23

Projected Total Points: 52

James Madison Scoring
Offense: 37.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 40
Defense: 18.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

James Madison's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/18	James Madison	27	Western Kentucky	17	James Madison -7.5	James Madison	50.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
James Madison	1	1	0 Overs
Western Kentucky	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Western Kentucky Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Raton Bowl	Western Kentucky vs James Madison	+7.5	50.5	L 17 - 27
2023	Toastery Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion	+4.0	49.0	W 38 - 35
2022	Orleans Bowl	Western Kentucky vs South Alabama	+4.0	58.0	W 44 - 23
2021	Raton Bowl	Western Kentucky vs App State	+3.0	67.0	W 59 - 38
2020	Lendingtree Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Georgia State	+3.5	50.5	L 21 - 39
2019	Responder Bowl	Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan	-3.0	56.0	W 23 - 20

James Madison Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Raton Bowl	James Madison vs Western Kentucky	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 17
2023	Forces Bowl	James Madison vs Air Force	+2.5	44.5	L 21 - 31

(#92) WKU at (#82) JMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	WKU	JMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#82
SP+SP+	#78	#41
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#26
OffenseOff	#60	#63
DefenseDef	#81	#18
Spec TeamsST	#79	#46
TalentTal	#114	#124
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#82

Western Kentucky Notes(12/18) Zero Rgame/OL bad in bowl. QB Vetkamp great
(12/2) Veltkamp good in Jax St upset, great 3rd down D
(11/25) 2 str L's as R Def mauled by Lib. Likely out race
(11/18) Shocking L to La Tech, Off esp Rgame awful
(11/18) Def all. 209 yds, 4.3 ypc to La Tech? 2-11 on 3rd
(11/1) Beating CUSA teams by 3 TD's, 20 ppg margin Oct
(10/16) Even w/ SHSU until backup QB. Vetlkamp great W
(10/10) Def #'s skewed by Bama game. Not great but Avg
(10/4) QB Veltkamp has WR options, Rgame v bad so far
(9/28) Outgained/played BC. 3 TOs killer. Veltkamp OK
(9/23) Big W over Tol. 3-12 on 3rd but forced 4 TOs
(8/3) TO luck big LY, regression? Off Great, D Awful
Western Kentucky Injury Report

James Madison Notes(12/18) DL v good, DE O'Neill is elite, #2 good as well
(12/18) Great job by staff. Lost HC/OC/DC/portals, 9-4
(12/1) 2 str WTF L's to finish, 2 OT L to Marshall
(12/1) Rgame good, 244/4.6 ypc, QB Barnett eff. Bad L
(11/25) WTF L @ App, box score W but 2 TOs, 9 flags
(11/25) 3 L's as big favorites under 1st yr Chesney, why?
(11/18) Rgame good, QB meh in close W @ ODU
(10/22) Def stop rate 77% (#7) even after shocking GaSo L
(10/20) Barnett awful in bad L (Ga So), Rgame abysmal
(10/16) Into week 8 lead nation with 17 Def TO's
(10/10) QB Barnett has 3 games with 3 TDs in 1st half
(10/10) Rgame dominates. QB Barnett good. Tough team
James Madison Injury Report

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#60	#18
SuccessSuc	#92	#4
ExplosiveExp	#8	#128
PPAPPA	#47	#14
PowerPwr	#71	#23
SP+SP+	#101	#40
Pts POPPO	#6	#9
HavocHav	#74	#1

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JMU Def
Run GameRun	#114	#20
Run SuccessRSuc	#119	#1
Run ExplRExp	#99	#117
PPAExp	#117	#8
Run BlockR Blk	#82	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#1
Stuff RateStuff	#19	#2
TackleTak	-	#62

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	JMU Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#25
Pass SuccessPSuc	#70	#19
Pass ExplPExl	#29	#115
PPAExp	#42	#51
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#5	#24
F7 HavocF7	#23	#2
DB HavocDB	#128	#4

James Madison on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	WKU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#81
SuccessSuc	#27	#98
ExplosiveExp	#82	#41
PPAPPA	#44	#81
PowerPwr	#106	#86
SP+SP+	#49	#62
Pts POPPO	#64	#87
HavocHav	#84	#114

James Madison Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#35	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#102	#121
Run ExplRExp	#114	#45
PPAExp	#121	#98
Run BlockR Blk	#20	-
OL YdsOLY	#121	#125
Stuff RateStuff	#132	#118
TackleTak	-	#6

James Madison Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	JMU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#92	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#7	#53
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#69
PPAExp	#13	#64
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#42
F7 HavocF7	#69	#109
DB HavocDB	#98	#81

Program Comparison
JMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
James Madison -7.5 (50.5)
James Madison won vs Western Kentucky this year (27-17)

Previous Matchups
James Madison beat Western Kentucky in 2024 (27-17)

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Caden Veltkamp	258	389	66%	3108	25	10	8.0
TJ Finley (Tr)	48	75	64%	490	1	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Elijah Young	201	883	3	4.4	30
George Hart III (Tr)	44	204	2	4.6	30
Caden Veltkamp	113	150	7	1.3	25
LT Sanders	21	103	1	4.9	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kisean Johnson (Tr)	75	925	7	12.3	51
Easton Messer	55	793	4	14.4	64
Dalvin Smith	30	397	4	13.2	65
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Devonte' Mathews (Tr)	99	2	0	0	0
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2
Hosea Wheeler	62	4	2	2	0
Chandler Matthews (Tr)	59	3	0	3	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Thomas	54	7	4	3	0
Sebastian Benjamin	56	6	4	5	0
Kylan Guidry	45	7	3	0	1
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Anthony Johnson Jr.	48	5	0	1	6
Kent Robinson (Tr)	33	4	2	0	4
Keyshawn Swanson (Tr)	63	2	0	0	2

JMU's OC Dean Kennedy (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Alonza Barnett	212	354	60%	2596	26	4	7.3
Billy Atkins	16	24	67%	181	1	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
George Pettaway (Tr)	163	976	5	6.0	31
Alonza Barnett	135	450	7	3.3	50
Wayne Knight	77	449	2	5.8	59
Jobi Malary (Tr)	45	269	2	6.0	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Dollison	37	633	6	17.1	73
Yamir Knight	52	605	4	11.6	68
Taylor Thompson	33	448	6	13.6	36
Cameron Ross	37	443	3	12.0	43

View James Madison's Full Roster

JMU's DC Lyle Hemphill (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Thomas	73	8	1	1	3
Khairi Manns (Tr)	70	14	9	8	2
Jacob Dobbs (Tr)	69	4	3	2	0
Chris Shearin (Tr)	58	2	0	2	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eric O'Neill (Tr)	53	18	13	16	3
Khairi Manns (Tr)	70	14	9	8	2
Jacob Dobbs (Tr)	69	4	3	2	0
Trent Hendrick	54	9	3	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Terrence Spence (Tr)	38	1	0	7
Jordan Taylor (Tr)	24	0	0	5
Chris Shearin (Tr)	58	2	2	4