Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Western Kentucky -13.5 (51.5) (-550) Open: -13.5
Western Kentucky 42 - Middle Tennessee: 26 (Conference USA)

Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WKU coming off BYE
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -14.5 (SP+ WKU -18)
Projected Score: MTSU: 19 - WKU: 33 (52)
WKU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
MTSU Travel: 79 miles

Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay	-14.5	53.5	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/6	Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin	+28.5	45.5	L 10 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/13	Middle Tennessee at Nevada	+9.0	50.0	W 14 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/20	Middle Tennessee vs Marshall	+2.5	46.5	L 28 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/27	Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State	+7.0	54.5	L 16 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8	Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State	+2.5	52.5	L 20 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22	Middle Tennessee at Delaware	+9.5	55.5	L 28 - 31	O	Y
Wed 10/29	Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State	+4.5	54.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/8	Middle Tennessee vs Florida International	-1.5	50.5	L 30 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/15	Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky	+13.5	51.5	L 26 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/22	Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston	-6.5	53.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State	+3.5	52.0	W 31 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-9.5	60.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-27.5	60.5	W 55 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+8.5	57.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8.5	54.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-3.5	59.5	W 27 - 22	U	Y
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	+2.5	62.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-9.5	55.5	L 6 - 25	U	N
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	+5.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-7.5	53.5	W 35 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-13.5	51.5	W 42 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+24.5	52.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5	56.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Tue 12/23	Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#107 (.13)	39% (105)	22.4	38% (114)	2.82 (104)	91	40% (83)	261	3 (128)	#129 (.32)	49% (130)	30.9	50% (124)	49% (127)	4.61 (126)	61.3	1.6	0.8
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	29.5	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	22.8	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	20.8	39.4%	3	1.6	18	352	91	261	3.2	41%	59%	38%	40%	19%	.13
WKU Defense	14	22.8	18.8	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	29.3	49.4%	4.61	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	49%	14%	.32
WKU Offense	14	29.5	35	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	30:15	18.2	38%	48%	7.3	61.3	1.6	0.8	4.6	1.7	1	25.2
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	41% (123)	38% (114)	27.9	90.5	3.2	10 (122)	.04 (110)	2.82 (104)	56% (132)	11% (100)	0.98 (62)
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	54% (104)	50% (124)	-	-	-	-	.19 (107)	3.19 (97)	72% (61)	9% (100)	0.97 (59)
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	59% (11)	40% (83)	22.8	35.6	261.1	7.3	11.5	16 (87)	10 (63)	.19 (95)	1.5 (102)	32% (84)	25% (123)	.17 (121)	7% (112)	1.9 (113)
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	46% (33)	49% (127)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.47 (129)	1.6 (90)	27% (127)	34% (109)	.53 (128)	5% (101)	2.3 (128)
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -12.58 #111
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 9.44 #91
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 22.02 #122
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00 #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -12.58 Western Kentucky: 0.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.0 Western Kentucky: 1.6

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 0.125 #84
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.64 #104
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 13.99 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6 #69
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #78

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 33
Middle Tennessee 19

Projected Total Points: 52

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Western Kentucky	42	Middle Tennessee	26	Western Kentucky -13.5	Western Kentucky	51.5	Over
2024	09/14	Middle Tennessee	21	Western Kentucky	49	Western Kentucky -10.5	Western Kentucky	53.5	Over
2023	09/28	Western Kentucky	31	Middle Tennessee	10	Western Kentucky -6.5	Western Kentucky	61.0	Under
2022	10/15	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	35	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	67.5	Under
2021	11/06	Western Kentucky	48	Middle Tennessee	21	Western Kentucky -17.5	Western Kentucky	66.5	Over
2020	10/03	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	20	Western Kentucky -7.0	Middle Tennessee	52.5	Under
2019	11/30	Western Kentucky	31	Middle Tennessee	26	Western Kentucky -10.5	Middle Tennessee	46.0	Over
2018	11/02	Middle Tennessee	29	Western Kentucky	10	Middle Tennessee -13.5	Middle Tennessee	53.0	Under
2017	11/17	Western Kentucky	41	Middle Tennessee	38	Middle Tennessee -1	Western Kentucky	56.0	Over
2016	10/15	Middle Tennessee	43	Western Kentucky	44	Middle Tennessee -2.5	Western Kentucky	75.0	Over
2015	10/10	Western Kentucky	58	Middle Tennessee	28	Western Kentucky -7.5	Western Kentucky	69.5	Over
2014	09/13	Middle Tennessee	50	Western Kentucky	47	Middle Tennessee -1	Middle Tennessee	0
2012	11/01	Western Kentucky	29	Middle Tennessee	34
2011	10/06	Middle Tennessee	33	Western Kentucky	36
2010	11/20	Western Kentucky	26	Middle Tennessee	27
2009	10/24	Middle Tennessee	62	Western Kentucky	24
2008	11/15	Western Kentucky	10	Middle Tennessee	21
2007	09/20	Middle Tennessee	17	Western Kentucky	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	12	8	7 Overs
Middle Tennessee	6	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 9	8 - 4	6 - 2	2 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 9	4 - 8	2 - 2	2 - 6

(#111) MTSU at (#84) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#111	#84
SP+SP+	#127	#69
Perf GradeGrade	#114	#65
OffenseOff	#122	#69
DefenseDef	#72	#71
Spec TeamsST	#131	#20
TalentTal	#124	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

Middle Tennessee Notes(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Western Kentucky Notes(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#71
SuccessSuc	#105	#102
ExplosiveExp	#53	#36
PPAPPA	#107	#95
PowerPwr	#91	#71
SP+SP+	#110	#78
Pts POPPO	#128	#54
HavocHav	#113	#122

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#86	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#114	#113
Run ExplRExp	#62	#35
PPAExp	#110	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#125	#128
TackleTak	-	#119

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#52	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#83	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#102	#128
PPAExp	#95	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#128	#81
F7 HavocF7	#100	#88
DB HavocDB	#112	#132

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#69	#72
SuccessSuc	#83	#130
ExplosiveExp	#33	#71
PPAPPA	#66	#129
PowerPwr	#104	#122
SP+SP+	#56	#128
Pts POPPO	#78	#126
HavocHav	#73	#108

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	#72	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#124
Run ExplRExp	#75	#59
PPAExp	#121	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#97
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#62
TackleTak	-	#26

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#114
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#127
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#90
PPAExp	#28	#129
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#75
F7 HavocF7	#87	#100
DB HavocDB	#56	#101

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Western Kentucky -13.5 (51.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-26)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee last year (42-26)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2024 (49-21)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (31-10)

MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Vattiato	219	357	61%	2157	16	7	6.0
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook	140	752	4	5.4	72
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Rickey Hunt	34	111	1	3.3	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
Myles Butler	52	518	2	10.0	52
Nahzae Cox	40	473	5	11.8	43
Jekail Middlebrook	40	412	3	10.3	48

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Hughes	89	3	0	2	2
Anthony Bynum	63	6	3	8	4
Shakai Woods	48	7	3	3	1
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Buckner	35	7	5	1	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Damonte Smith	33	11	3	4	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
De'Arre McDonald	29	0	7
Abdul Muhammad	29	0	7
Jackson Lowe	36	2	4

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	183	273	67%	2062	12	6	7.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	139	212	66%	1432	9	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvis Parrish	106	576	1	5.4	66
La'Vell Wright (Tr)	85	471	10	5.5	39
George Hart III	70	300	5	4.3	36
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	52	108	2	2.1	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)	55	888	6	16.1	55
K.D. Hutchinson	66	618	3	9.4	78
Moussa Barry	34	488	1	14.4	48
Noah Meyers	32	357	3	11.2	62

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)	106	7	2	3	2
Anthony Brackenridge	74	5	1	2	3
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	0	5
Dave Herard	58	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	20	4	3	0	0
Koron Hayward	19	4	3	2	1
Jalen Emery (Tr)	18	3	2	1	3
Harper Holloman	39	6	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nazir Ward	35	3	1	6
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	5
Jai Eugene Jr.	21	2	1	5