Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Western Kentucky -13.5 (51.5) (-550)  Open: -13.5
Western Kentucky 42 - Middle Tennessee: 26  (Conference USA)

 
Blue Raiders (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 14.9 MPH
WKU coming off BYE
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -20  (SP+ WKU -17)

Projected Score: MTSU: 16 - WKU: 36 (52)
WKU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
MTSU Travel: 79 miles
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-14.553.5L 14 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+28.545.5L 10 - 42ON
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+9.050.0W 14 - 13UY
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall+2.546.5L 28 - 42ON
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State+7.054.5L 16 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State+2.552.5L 20 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+9.555.5L 28 - 31OY
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State+4.554.0L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International-1.550.5L 30 - 56ON
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+13.551.5L 26 - 42ON
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-6.553.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+3.552.0W 31 - 24OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (60)22.445% (56)2.92 (72)10642% (63)2653.2 (116)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (57)48% (131)4.03 (104)67.711.3
WKU#74 (.17)43% (58)29.545% (52)2.97 (62)12342% (64)2524.21 (30)#42 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (26)36% (18)2.72 (11)55.61.41
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)38% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)50% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1222.420.843%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16
WKU Defense1322.818.837%2.721 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1230.929.344.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
WKU Offense1329.53543.2%4.211.4203741232524.242%57%45%42%15%.17

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Western Kentucky1327:102045%33%5.655.61.414.91.2228.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (85)2.92 (72)65% (110)9% (60)0.88 (104)
WKU Defense1346% (22)39% (26) - - - - .09 (61)2.79 (52)55% (3)9% (94)1.13 (130)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1250% (64)41% (57) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (19)66% (30)10% (68)0.83 (11)
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (52)29.2122.74.220 (78).09 (81)2.97 (62)81% (12)9% (49)0.92 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (63)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (89)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (82).3 (71)9% (134)1.9 (99)
WKU Defense1352% (109)36% (18) - - - - - - 8 (55).16 (33)1.5 (62)34% (32)27% (31).23 (43)7% (17)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1248% (62)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (125)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (101).33 (90)6% (59)1.9 (37)
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (64)23.335251.67.210.821 (42)11 (60).24 (72)1.5 (89)33% (100)34% (24).36 (45)6% (89)1.9 (104)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -14.46  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 4.63  #92
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 19.09  #128
2025 Talent Rating: 462.00  #124
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.3  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8  #111
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.3  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -14.46   Western Kentucky: 4.47

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.3   Western Kentucky: 0.4




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 4.47  #57
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.30  #77
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 3.76  #39
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.4  #70
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.9  #60
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0  #80

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 36
Middle Tennessee 16


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Western Kentucky 27
Middle Tennessee 24

Total Points: 51

Based on Entire Season
Western Kentucky 31
Middle Tennessee 21

Total Points: 52
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Western Kentucky42Middle Tennessee26Western Kentucky -13.5Western Kentucky51.5Over
202409/14Middle Tennessee21Western Kentucky49Western Kentucky -10.5Western Kentucky53.5Over
202309/28Western Kentucky31Middle Tennessee10Western Kentucky -6.5Western Kentucky61.0Under
202210/15Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky35Western Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky67.5Under
202111/06Western Kentucky48Middle Tennessee21Western Kentucky -17.5Western Kentucky66.5Over
202010/03Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky20Western Kentucky -7.0Middle Tennessee52.5Under
201911/30Western Kentucky31Middle Tennessee26Western Kentucky -10.5Middle Tennessee46.0Over
201811/02Middle Tennessee29Western Kentucky10Middle Tennessee -13.5Middle Tennessee53.0Under
201711/17Western Kentucky41Middle Tennessee38Middle Tennessee -1Western Kentucky56.0Over
201610/15Middle Tennessee43Western Kentucky44Middle Tennessee -2.5Western Kentucky75.0Over
201510/10Western Kentucky58Middle Tennessee28Western Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky69.5Over
201409/13Middle Tennessee50Western Kentucky47Middle Tennessee -1Middle Tennessee0
201211/01Western Kentucky29Middle Tennessee34
201110/06Middle Tennessee33Western Kentucky36
201011/20Western Kentucky26Middle Tennessee27
200910/24Middle Tennessee62Western Kentucky24
200811/15Western Kentucky10Middle Tennessee21
200709/20Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky1287 Overs
Middle Tennessee644 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 98 - 46 - 22 - 2
Road Teams9 - 94 - 82 - 22 - 6

(#127) MTSU at (#57) WKU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUWKU
Power RatePwr #127 #57
SP+SP+ #127 #70
Perf GradeGrade #115 #55
OffenseOff #116 #64
DefenseDef #85 #54
Spec TeamsST #129 #28
TalentTal #124 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
Middle Tennessee Notes
(10/22) Bottom 5 in CFB in scoring opps both Off & Def
(10/8) Turning ugly, Mason playing for 50 yd GW FG in L
(9/24) Offense throws it 65%, but success #'s in 120s
(9/24) Hung w/ Marshall until 21 pt 4th Q, Def is awful
(9/24) Offense is improving, wonder how they progress
(8/30) 153 yds of Off vs Austin Peay? Bottom 5 Off
(7/5) QB Vattiato 3rd yr starting, 2nd under OC Reeder
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
Middle Tennessee Injury Report
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWKU Def
Perf GradePerf #116 #54
SuccessSuc #60 #19
ExplosiveExp #86 #116
PPAPPA #78 #42
PowerPwr #92 #39
SP+SP+ #111 #80
Pts POPPO #116 #11
HavocHav #115 #58
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #82 #72
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #26
Run ExplRExp #104 #130
PPAExp #85 #61
Run BlockR Blk #132 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #52
Stuff RateStuff #116 #31
TackleTak -  #118
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #45 #34
Pass SuccessPSuc #63 #18
Pass ExplPExl #116 #62
PPAExp #89 #33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #124 #70
F7 HavocF7 #60 #94
DB HavocDB #134 #17
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffMTSU Def
Perf GradePerf #64 #85
SuccessSuc #58 #108
ExplosiveExp #70 #83
PPAPPA #74 #108
PowerPwr #77 #128
SP+SP+ #60 #128
Pts POPPO #30 #104
HavocHav #61 #67
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffMTSU Def
Run GameRun #74 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #52 #57
Run ExplRExp #84 #11
PPAExp #81 #35
Run BlockR Blk #91 -
OL YdsOLY #62 #19
Stuff RateStuff #99 #14
TackleTak -  #29
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePass #47 #113
Pass SuccessPSuc #64 #131
Pass ExplPExl #89 #100
PPAExp #72 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #34 #80
F7 HavocF7 #49 #68
DB HavocDB #89 #59
Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 75° - Wind: 15 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Western Kentucky -13.5 (51.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Middle Tennessee this year (42-26)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee last year (49-21)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (31-10)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2022 (35-17)

  
MTSU's OC Bodie Reeder (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato21935761%21571676.0
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook14075245.472
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Rickey Hunt3411113.315
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
Myles Butler52518210.052
Nahzae Cox40473511.843
Jekail Middlebrook40412310.348

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes893022
Anthony Bynum636384
Shakai Woods487331
Korey Smith381002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner357512
Reggie Johnson3510472
Damonte Smith3311342
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
De'Arre McDonald290007
Abdul Muhammad290007
Jackson Lowe362004

WKU's OC Rick Bowie (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC DaVon Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jai Eugene Jr.212105
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005