Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky Game Matchup
Middle Tennessee logo Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY  (Conference USA)

 
Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 34 (14 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.8 - 6.2 (#78)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 11)
WKU coming off BYE
MTSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Western Kentucky -8.5   (SP+ WKU -11)

Projected Score: MTSU: 20 - WKU: 28 (51)
WKU Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
MTSU Travel: 79 miles
Hilltoppers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (26 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Middle Tennessee vs Austin Peay-6
Sat 9/6 Middle Tennessee at Wisconsin+27.5
Sat 9/13 Middle Tennessee at Nevada+2.5
Sat 9/20 Middle Tennessee vs Marshall-2
Sat 9/27 Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State-0.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/8 Middle Tennessee vs Missouri State-3.5
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/22 Middle Tennessee at Delaware+3.5
Wed 10/29 Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State-4
Sat 11/8 Middle Tennessee vs Florida International+0
Sat 11/15 Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky+8.5
Sat 11/22 Middle Tennessee vs Sam Houston-2
Sat 11/29 Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State+1.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 11
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/22 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-7.50.0
Fri 8/29 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-11.5
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+13
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-4
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware-2.5
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-5.5
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-2
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-9.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-8.5
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+40
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#107 (.13)39% (105)18.138% (114)2.82 (104)9140% (83)2613 (128)#129 (.32)49% (130)34.350% (124)49% (127)4.61 (126)61.31.60.8
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)24.938% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)24.648% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WKU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1218.114.239.4%31.618352912613.241%59%38%40%19%.13
WKU Defense1424.613.544.7%3.661.5 - - - - - 63%36%48%40%13%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1234.335.849.4%4.610.8 - - - - - 54%46%50%49%14%.32
WKU Offense1424.926.341.8%3.831.7193741102653.545%55%38%45%16%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1230:1518.238%48%7.361.31.60.84.61.7125.2
Western Kentucky1427:5219.341%59%4.141.31.71.54.91.6029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1241% (123)38% (114)27.990.53.210 (122).04 (110)2.82 (104)56% (132)11% (100)0.98 (62)
WKU Defense1463% (134)48% (113) - - - - .19 (103)3.36 (116)77% (93)9% (88)0.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1254% (104)50% (124) - - - - .19 (107)3.19 (97)72% (61)9% (100)0.97 (59)
WKU Offense1445% (105)38% (117)31.1109.73.514 (98).01 (121)2.78 (108)69% (100)11% (87)0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1259% (11)40% (83)22.835.6261.17.311.516 (87)10 (63).19 (95)1.5 (102)32% (84)25% (123).17 (121)7% (112)1.9 (113)
WKU Defense1436% (1)40% (60) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (99)1.8 (128)28% (116)29% (47).23 (37)3% (132)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1246% (33)49% (127) - - - - - - 5 (117).47 (129)1.6 (90)27% (127)34% (109).53 (128)5% (101)2.3 (128)
WKU Offense1455% (26)45% (33)22.133.5264.67.91228 (15)12 (85).36 (28)1.6 (59)33% (91)30% (91).29 (89)6% (56)1.9 (100)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -18.76 #118
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
2025 Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2
Middle Tennessee's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -18.76   Western Kentucky: -9.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.4   Western Kentucky: -5.8




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -9.295 #116
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 385.5
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 18.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 14.2
Defense: 34.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

Middle Tennessee's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 28
Middle Tennessee 20


Projected Total Points: 51
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Middle Tennessee21Western Kentucky49Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -10.5Western Kentucky53.5Over
202309/28Western Kentucky31Middle Tennessee10Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -6.5Western Kentucky61.0Under
202210/15Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky35Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky67.5Under
202111/06Western Kentucky48Middle Tennessee21Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -17.5Western Kentucky66.5Over
202010/03Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky20Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -7.0Middle Tennessee52.5Under
201911/30Western Kentucky31Middle Tennessee26Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -10.5Middle Tennessee46.0Over
201811/02Middle Tennessee29Western Kentucky10Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee -13.5Middle Tennessee53.0Under
201711/17Western Kentucky41Middle Tennessee38Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee -1Western Kentucky56.0Over
201610/15Middle Tennessee43Western Kentucky44Western KentuckyMiddle Tennessee -2.5Western Kentucky75.0Over
201510/10Western Kentucky58Middle Tennessee28Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky69.5Over
201409/13Middle Tennessee50Western Kentucky47Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee -1Middle Tennessee0
201211/01Western Kentucky29Middle Tennessee34Middle Tennessee
201110/06Middle Tennessee33Western Kentucky36Western Kentucky
201011/20Western Kentucky26Middle Tennessee27Middle Tennessee
200910/24Middle Tennessee62Western Kentucky24Middle Tennessee
200811/15Western Kentucky10Middle Tennessee21Middle Tennessee
200709/20Middle Tennessee17Western Kentucky20Western Kentucky
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky1176 Overs
Middle Tennessee644 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 97 - 45 - 22 - 2
Road Teams9 - 84 - 72 - 22 - 5

(#118) Middle Tennessee Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.76 #118
Offense Rating: 8.09 #104
Defense Rating: 26.85 #128
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.5 #130
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 436.00 #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #99
Expected Record: 5.8 - 6.2

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 41%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Awful OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.61 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 49%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Middle Tennessee Notes
(5/19) RB added Rickey Hunt (Ohio/Tulsa) after spring
(5/19) WR rebuild, 4 portal WR (all P4), 2 TE
(5/19) OC Reeder wants physical Off? Pass heavy LY
(5/19) Def front 7 has some nice pieces, DBs huge ?
(3/26) QB Vattiato back, good, 3K LY. Must limit TOs
(3/26) OL meh LY, 4/5 back. T's poor, 3 portal adds
(3/26) Def awful LY, must trust depth, only 1 portal
(3/26) Mason good fit, year 2 for staff. Could bowl
Middle Tennessee     Ratings Matchup     Western Kentucky
Power #118
#116
Off #104
#119
Def #128
#114
Talent #120
#105
SP+ #125
#85
SP+ Off #130
#102
SP+ Def #107
#68

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee last year (49-21)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2023 (31-10)
Western Kentucky beat Middle Tennessee in 2022 (35-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MTSU | WKU
Depth Chart: MTSU | WKU
Rosters: MTSU | WKU
(#116) Western Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.295 #116
Offense Rating: 5.91 #119
Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68
Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Western Kentucky Notes
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Def portals 7 DL, 1 LB, 5 DBs.
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
(3/22) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) a big find for '25
(3/22) RB rebuild. Hart has exp, Hampton some
(3/22) WR complete rebuild. Took 5 portals + 2 TEs
(3/22) OL rebuild. 5 portal adds. Very ?


  
Middle Tennessee's OC Bodie Reeder
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nick Vattiato26941864%309216107.4
Roman Gagliano4944%41004.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rickey Hunt7639325.259
Jekail Middlebrook6027324.624
Nick Vattiato867710.916
Roman Gagliano2502.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Myles Butler30366312.261
Cam'Ron Lacy2019009.544
Jekail Middlebrook2216317.424
Gamarion Carter12123010.327

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster
Middle Tennessee's DC Brian Stewart
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Parker Hughes692010
Anthony Bynum607311
Shakai Woods424110
Brandon Buckner374350
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Buckner374350
Anthony Bynum607311
Aidan Butts102202
Damonte Smith254231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aidan Butts102202
Abdul Muhammad120002
Damonte Smith254231

Western Kentucky's OC Rick Bowie
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)31249663%38473077.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
George Hart III4420424.630
Jalen Hampton115705.214
K.D. Hutchinson85106.442
John Cannon (Tr)117017.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jairus Mack (Tr)19418022.059
K.D. Hutchinson26392315.174
Isaiah Myers (Tr)13237318.237
Noah Meyers7123117.624

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster
Western Kentucky's DC DaVon Brown
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)432005
Demarko Williams372001
Kent Robinson334204
Braxton Myers (Tr)312002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kent Robinson334204
Jayden Gray (Tr)143211
Dominic Oliver (Tr)152110
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)432005
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)432005
Kent Robinson334204
Braxton Myers (Tr)312002