New Mexico State at Western Kentucky

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY (Conference USA)

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.7 - 7.3 (#103)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Our Line: Western Kentucky -9.5 (SP+ WKU -10)
Projected Score: NMSU: 20 - WKU: 30 (54)
WKU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
NMSU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs behind

Hilltoppers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 25 - 25 (26 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	New Mexico State vs Bryant	-5
Sat 9/6	New Mexico State vs Tulsa	-1.5
Sat 9/13	New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+5
Thu 10/2	New Mexico State vs Sam Houston	-1.5
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	New Mexico State at Liberty	+21.5
Wed 10/22	New Mexico State vs Missouri State	-2
Sat 11/1	New Mexico State at Western Kentucky	+9.5
Sat 11/8	New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State	-4.5
Sat 11/15	New Mexico State at Tennessee	+38.5
Sat 11/22	New Mexico State at UTEP	+7.5
Sat 11/29	New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee	-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 10
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-8.0	0.0
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-11.5
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+13
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-4
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	-2.5
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-5.5
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	-2
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-9.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-8.5
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+40
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#119 (.08)	39% (106)	21.6	46% (41)	3.33 (21)	179	30% (132)	143	3.8 (82)	#115 (.26)	41% (64)	36.3	43% (69)	40% (68)	3.7 (60)	48.1	1.9	0.8
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	24.9	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	24.6	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	12.6	39.3%	3.8	1.9	19	322	179	143	4.4	58%	42%	46%	30%	18%	.08
WKU Defense	14	24.6	13.5	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	36.3	38.4	41.3%	3.7	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	43%	40%	12%	.26
WKU Offense	14	24.9	26.3	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	29:26	19.3	38%	38%	5.4	48.1	1.9	0.8	3.8	1.2	1	27
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	58% (20)	46% (41)	41.3	179.3	4.4	16 (90)	.11 (81)	3.33 (21)	77% (37)	11% (103)	0.98 (61)
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	50% (55)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.18 (98)	3.17 (93)	58% (5)	7% (134)	1.04 (95)
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	42% (116)	30% (132)	11.8	26.7	143.2	5.4	12.2	12 (118)	12 (85)	.05 (128)	1.8 (17)	33% (100)	30% (87)	.13 (131)	7% (104)	1.7 (132)
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	50% (76)	40% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.36 (118)	1.9 (132)	31% (80)	29% (42)	.42 (107)	6% (78)	2.3 (126)
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -21.48 #131
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 3.54 #125
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 25.02 #120
2025 Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 384
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -21.48 Western Kentucky: -9.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -16.0 Western Kentucky: -5.8

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -9.295 #116
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 5.91 #120
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
2025 Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #83
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 384
Average Power Five Talent: 856.63
Average FBS Talent: 681.13

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 30
New Mexico State 20

Projected Total Points: 54

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.3
Defense: 24.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.5

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	New Mexico State	28	Western Kentucky	41	Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky -18.0	New Mexico State	53.5	Over
2023	11/11	Western Kentucky	29	New Mexico State	38	New Mexico State	Western Kentucky -4.5	New Mexico State	55.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	1	0	2 Overs
New Mexico State	1	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#131) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -21.48 #131
Offense Rating: 3.54 #125
Defense Rating: 25.02 #120
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #122
Offense SP+ Rating: 21.8 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #124
Talent Rating: 224.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #97
Expected Record: 4.7 - 7.3

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

New Mexico State Notes
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) QB Fife (Mont), Awad started late LY
(3/26) RB McGowan good, 2 P4 portals added
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) Def bad LY, returns some. 6 portal DL adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

New Mexico State Ratings Matchup Western Kentucky

Power #131

#116

Off #125

#120

Def #120

#114

Talent #131

#105

SP+ #122

#85

SP+ Off #106

#102

SP+ Def #124

#68

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | WKU
Depth Chart: NMSU | WKU
Rosters: NMSU | WKU

(#116) Western Kentucky Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.295 #116
Offense Rating: 5.91 #120
Defense Rating: 23.70 #114
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.8 #85
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #102
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #68
Talent Rating: 504.00 #105
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #83
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.83 PPO
Awful Run Success 38%
Good Pass Success 45%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.66 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 48%
Avg Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Western Kentucky Notes
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Def portals 7 DL, 1 LB, 5 DBs.
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor
(3/22) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) a big find for '25
(3/22) RB rebuild. Hart has exp, Hampton some
(3/22) WR complete rebuild. Took 5 portals + 2 TEs
(3/22) OL rebuild. 5 portal adds. Very ?

New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Logan Fife (Tr)	157	246	64%	1781	13	2	7.2
Parker Awad	74	159	47%	1079	7	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)	26	124	1	4.8	60
Logan Fife (Tr)	52	120	5	2.3	22
Larenzo McMillan	7	111	1	15.9	84
Parker Awad	60	109	1	1.8	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Pride	34	374	2	11.0	53
Glynn Johnson Jr	19	346	2	18.2	54
Tyler King (Tr)	17	236	0	13.9	36
Gavin Harris (Tr)	11	173	1	15.7	60

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	55	4	0	2	5
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	0	1	6
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Martinez	94	3	1	0	1
Gabe Peterson (Tr)	6	1	1	0	0
Larry Jones III (Tr)	5	1	1	2	0
Glynn Johnson Jr	2	0	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Dakerric Hobbs	36	3	1	6
Sone Aupiu	55	4	2	5
Nicolas Sessions	30	1	0	3

Western Kentucky's OC Rick Bowie

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	312	496	63%	3847	30	7	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
George Hart III	44	204	2	4.6	30
Jalen Hampton	11	57	0	5.2	14
K.D. Hutchinson	8	51	0	6.4	42
John Cannon (Tr)	1	17	0	17.0	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jairus Mack (Tr)	19	418	0	22.0	59
K.D. Hutchinson	26	392	3	15.1	74
Isaiah Myers (Tr)	13	237	3	18.2	37
Noah Meyers	7	123	1	17.6	24

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

Western Kentucky's DC DaVon Brown

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al-Ma'Hi Ali (Tr)	45	1	0	3	7
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	0	5
Demarko Williams	37	2	0	0	1
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Gray (Tr)	14	3	2	1	1
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	0	4
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	15	2	1	1	0
Al-Ma'Hi Ali (Tr)	45	1	0	3	7

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al-Ma'Hi Ali (Tr)	45	1	0	3	7
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	43	2	0	0	5
Kent Robinson	33	4	2	0	4