New Mexico State at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo   New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers  Western Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -7.5 (53.5) (-298)  Open: -9.5
Western Kentucky 35 - New Mexico State: 16  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Our Line: Western Kentucky -17  (SP+ WKU -17)
Projected Score: NMSU: 18 - WKU: 35 (54)
WKU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
NMSU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs behind
Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+16.553.5L 20 - 38ON
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston+1.553.5W 37 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+10.548.5L 27 - 30OY
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State+2.551.5L 17 - 24UN
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+7.553.5L 16 - 35UN
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State+11.552.5L 21 - 24UY
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+41.559.5L 9 - 42UY
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+4.044.5W 34 - 31OY
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-3.552.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-8.554.5W 31 - 16UY
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-3.559.5W 27 - 22UY
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware+2.562.5W 27 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-9.555.5L 6 - 25UN
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech+5.549.5W 28 - 27OY
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-7.553.5W 35 - 16UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-13.551.5W 42 - 26OY
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+24.552.0L 10 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-1.556.5L 34 - 37ON
Tue 12/23 Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss+3.059.0W 27 - 16UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)27.643% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)29.538% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)22.848% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WKU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.62039.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
WKU Defense1422.818.844.7%3.661.5 - - - - - 63%36%48%40%13%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1227.637.541.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
WKU Offense1429.53541.8%3.831.7193741102653.545%55%38%45%16%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Western Kentucky1427:5219.341%59%4.141.31.71.54.91.6029.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
WKU Defense1463% (134)48% (113) - - - - .19 (103)3.36 (116)77% (93)9% (88)0.9 (35)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
WKU Offense1445% (105)38% (117)31.1109.73.514 (98).01 (121)2.78 (108)69% (100)11% (87)0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
WKU Defense1436% (1)40% (60) - - - - - - 10 (66).29 (99)1.8 (128)28% (116)29% (47).23 (37)3% (132)2.1 (92)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
WKU Offense1455% (26)45% (33)22.133.5264.67.91228 (15)12 (85).36 (28)1.6 (59)33% (91)30% (91).29 (89)6% (56)1.9 (100)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -18.16  #128
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 2.60  #127
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 20.76  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00  #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5  #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7  #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.16   Western Kentucky: 0.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5   Western Kentucky: 1.6




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 0.125  #84
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.64  #104
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 13.99  #71
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6  #69
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 35
New Mexico State 18


Projected Total Points: 54
Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Western Kentucky35New Mexico State16Western Kentucky -7.5Western Kentucky53.5Under
202411/09New Mexico State28Western Kentucky41Western Kentucky -18.0New Mexico State53.5Over
202311/11Western Kentucky29New Mexico State38Western Kentucky -4.5New Mexico State55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky212 Overs
New Mexico State121 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 22 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 11 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#128) NMSU at (#84) WKU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUWKU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #128 #84
SP+SP+ #123 #69
Perf GradeGrade #112 #65
OffenseOff #127 #69
DefenseDef #76 #71
Spec TeamsST #23 #20
TalentTal #132 #89
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #88
New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Run Off worst in CFB, Pass Off avg, Expl plays or bust
(10/22) Must have nothing at backup QB, Fife is unplayable
(10/22) RB Calloway lacks vision & does not fight for yards
(10/22) DC Joe Morris doing incredible things, wasted by Off
(10/14) Hard L @ Liberty, box score W, held to 3-10 on 3rd
(10/14) Special teams an utter disaster vs Liberty, cost game
(10/8) DL Peterson & Christensen are top 10 in QB Hurries
(10/3) Def bows up and makes plays. Good Def Success #'s
(10/2) QB Fife threw some dimes under pressure vs SHSU
(9/24) Pass 60%, Run Off worst in CFB in Success
(9/24) QB Fife has been OK, has 2 WR & TE look decent
(9/24) Def much improved esp vs Run, top 20 Success
New Mexico State Injury Report
Western Kentucky Notes
(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffWKU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #71
SuccessSuc #106 #102
ExplosiveExp #95 #36
PPAPPA #119 #95
PowerPwr #127 #71
SP+SP+ #112 #78
Pts POPPO #82 #54
HavocHav #112 #122
New Mexico State Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffWKU Def
Run GameRun #135 #65
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #113
Run ExplRExp #61 #35
PPAExp #81 #103
Run BlockR Blk #97 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #116
Stuff RateStuff #28 #128
TackleTak -  #119
New Mexico State Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffWKU Def
Pass GamePass #99 #52
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #60
Pass ExplPExl #17 #128
PPAExp #128 #99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #123 #81
F7 HavocF7 #103 #88
DB HavocDB #104 #132
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffNMSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #69 #76
SuccessSuc #83 #64
ExplosiveExp #33 #127
PPAPPA #66 #115
PowerPwr #104 #115
SP+SP+ #56 #120
Pts POPPO #78 #60
HavocHav #73 #128
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #72 #98
Run SuccessRSuc #117 #69
Run ExplRExp #75 #95
PPAExp #121 #98
Run BlockR Blk #95 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #93
Stuff RateStuff #103 #66
TackleTak -  #42
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatWKU OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #57 #63
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #68
Pass ExplPExl #59 #132
PPAExp #28 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #48 #57
F7 HavocF7 #87 #134
DB HavocDB #56 #78
Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
Western Kentucky -7.5 (53.5)
Western Kentucky won vs New Mexico State this year (35-16)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (35-16)
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State in 2024 (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)20336156%223211126.2
Adam Damante7010467%711546.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)11745033.829
Dijon Stanley (Tr)7329724.157
Isaiah Rudison4215823.836
Tyler King (Tr)81802.313
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Faupel61661710.855
Tyler King (Tr)41588314.364
Gavin Harris (Tr)36514114.334
Glynn Johnson Jr27335312.440

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Tory Gethers875312
Sone Aupiu686134
Jamall Thompson618440
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Christensen (Tr)41115102
Jamall Thompson618440
Tory Gethers875312
Ta'Avili Tuitama194230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Naeten Mitchell922007
Zechariah Rodriguez-Brown173006
Stilton McKelvey182005

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)18327367%20621267.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish10657615.466
La'Vell Wright (Tr)85471105.539
George Hart III7030054.336
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)55888616.155
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Moussa Barry34488114.448
Noah Meyers32357311.262

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)1067232
Anthony Brackenridge745123
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Dave Herard583004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)204300
Koron Hayward194321
Jalen Emery (Tr)183213
Harper Holloman396264
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nazir Ward353106
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)744005
Jai Eugene Jr.212105