New Mexico State at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Western Kentucky HilltoppersWestern Kentucky logo
Saturday, November 1st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium - Bowling Green, KY  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (2 - 1) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 18 - 22 (14 - 49 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.1 - 5.9 (#79)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
Our Line: Western Kentucky -13   (SP+ WKU -16)
Projected Score: NMSU: 23 - WKU: 36 (58)
WKU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
NMSU Travel: 1195 miles, 1 hrs behind
Hilltoppers (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 39 - 25 (48 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 8)
 
New Mexico State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 New Mexico State vs Bryant-19.552.5W 19 - 3UN
Sat 9/6 New Mexico State vs Tulsa+3.052.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 9/13 New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech+10.042.5L 14 - 49ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 New Mexico State at New Mexico+2
Thu 10/2 New Mexico State vs Sam Houston-7
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 New Mexico State at Liberty+14.5
Wed 10/22 New Mexico State vs Missouri State-6.5
Sat 11/1 New Mexico State at Western Kentucky+13
Sat 11/8 New Mexico State vs Kennesaw State-7.5
Sat 11/15 New Mexico State at Tennessee+39.5
Sat 11/22 New Mexico State at UTEP+9.5
Sat 11/29 New Mexico State vs Middle Tennessee-10.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston-9.560.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 8/30 Western Kentucky vs North Alabama-27.560.5W 55 - 6OY
Sat 9/6 Western Kentucky at Toledo+8.557.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20 Western Kentucky vs Nevada-10.554.5
Sat 9/27 Western Kentucky at Missouri State-12
Fri 10/3 Western Kentucky at Delaware-2
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14 Western Kentucky vs Florida International-6.5
Tue 10/21 Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech-1
Sat 11/1 Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State-13
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-20.5
Sat 11/22 Western Kentucky at LSU+29.5
Sat 11/29 Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State-7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#111 (.08)35% (128)1822% (136)1.43 (136)4843% (73)2533.33 (104)#19 (-.03)33% (22)2223% (4)44% (99)2.13 (18)73.31.71.3
WKU#80 (.16)42% (83)3937% (112)2.71 (96)11045% (59)3585 (32)#91 (.18)35% (37)2539% (67)32% (30)3.08 (53)641.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
WKU#66 (.19)42% (83)38% (117)2.78 (108)11045% (33)2653.83 (78)#95 (.21)45% (102)48% (113)40% (60)3.66 (54)41.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense3181434.5%3.331.717301482531.940%59%22%43%15%.08
WKU Defense3251535.2%3.081 - - - - - 51%49%39%32%17%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense3224932.9%2.131.3 - - - - - 50%49%23%44%16%-.03
WKU Offense3394842.1%51.3234681103583.534%66%37%45%12%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State327:5016.734%100%7.773.31.71.36.31.7028.8
Western Kentucky329:5423.349%20%6641.315.71.3029.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense340% (124)22% (136)25481.91 (127)-.26 (136)1.43 (136)75% (52)10% (91)0.81 (104)
WKU Defense351% (77)39% (67) - - - - .19 (108)3.03 (94)71% (72)10% (76)1.27 (121)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense350% (66)23% (4) - - - - -.22 (5)2.19 (20)43% (10)9% (91)1.05 (91)
WKU Offense334% (136)37% (112)31.7109.73.54 (79)-.16 (131)2.71 (96)60% (103)7% (44)0.8 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense359% (14)43% (73)19.736.3253.3712.95 (54)3 (92).28 (70)1.5 (72)43% (135)27% (98).29 (80)5% (72)2.2 (41)
WKU Defense349% (58)32% (30) - - - - - - 2 (56).19 (61)1.6 (77)37% (28)15% (12)-.01 (20)7% (44)1.8 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense349% (57)44% (99) - - - - - - 4 (12).18 (57)1.2 (20)37% (30)20% (25).04 (24)8% (30)2.1 (88)
WKU Offense366% (1)45% (59)29433588.312.311 (5)1 (23).32 (63)1.7 (28)34% (105)37% (35).1 (117)5% (63)1.7 (108)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -9.72 #105
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
2025 Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
New Mexico State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9
New Mexico State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -9.72   Western Kentucky: -1.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -18.5   Western Kentucky: -2.5




Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -1.28 #91
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 457.83
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 18 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 49

New Mexico State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 36
New Mexico State 23


Total Points: 58

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 39 PPG
Offense at Home: 48
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 15

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09New Mexico State28Western Kentucky41Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky -18.0New Mexico State53.5Over
202311/11Western Kentucky29New Mexico State38New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky -4.5New Mexico State55.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Western Kentucky102 Overs
New Mexico State120 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 01 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#105) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: -9.72 #105
Offense Rating: 1.27 #128
Defense Rating: 10.99 #85
Overall SP+ Rating: -18.5 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #123
Defense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #125
Talent Rating: 306.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Expected Record: 6.1 - 5.9

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 40%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.33 PPO
Awful Run Success 22%
Bad Pass Success 43%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 33%
Great in Scoring Position 2.13 PPO
Great Run Def Success 23%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

New Mexico State has lost 5 straight
New Mexico State has lost 3 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Notes
(7/15) RB Calloway good in '23 (Cal), 3 P4 portals
(7/12) QB Fife (Mont) QB1 over Awad, who had exp LY
(7/12) Def bad LY, returns some. 8 portal DL adds
(5/18) RB Dijon Stanley (Utah) has tremendous speed
(5/2) JUCO WR Jackson Owens has promise
(4/7) WRs bad, lotta drops. Pride led LY w/ 374 yds.
(3/26) OL good run LY, 2/5 back. 2 portal adds
(3/26) HC Sanchez the definition of why bother

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State offense is explosive (#29)
New Mexico State has a really good defense (#22)
New Mexico State defense is really good in red zone (#18)
New Mexico State has a good run defense (#4)
New Mexico State Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#23)
New Mexico State Defensive Line is very good (#20)
New Mexico State Secondary is very good (#30)
New Mexico State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State has a really bad Offense
New Mexico State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
New Mexico State Can Not Run the Ball (#136)
New Mexico State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
New Mexico State offense is really bad (#128)
New Mexico State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#104)
New Mexico State run game is really bad (#136)
New Mexico State offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWKUNMSU
OverallOver#47#78
OffenseOff#60#100
DefenseDef#67#67
Special TeamsST#4#25
PassingPass#44#87
RushingRush#64#106
Run BlockRBLK#109#75
Pass BlockPBLK#73#115
Route RunningWR Rt#23#41
TacklingTkl#94#106
Run DefenseR Def#91#81
Pass Rush DefPRush#22#51
Coverage DefCov#57#58

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State last year (41-28)
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky in 2023 (38-29)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | WKU
Depth Chart: NMSU | WKU
Rosters: NMSU | WKU
(#91) Western Kentucky Info
Power Rating: -1.28 #91
Offense Rating: 7.41 #91
Defense Rating: 12.47 #93
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.1 #84
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #81
Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 66%, Run: 34%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 5 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.08 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 39%
Good Pass Def Success 32%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Western Kentucky has lost 6 straight
Western Kentucky has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Western Kentucky Notes
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
(7/11) Portal hits big, 2 starters back. 46 portals signed
(7/11) QB McIvor (3k yds/30 TD) combo w/ OC McIvor
(5/2) WR Henry (FCS W Ill) 1,179 yds, 6 TD LY
(3/22) Def avg CUSA, but must rebuild most
(3/22) Almost 60% new roster, new OC/DC.
(3/22) New OC Bowie (Alb. Chr.) brought QB McIvor

Western Kentucky Highlights
Western Kentucky is Undefeated at Home
Western Kentucky is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Western Kentucky offense is explosive (#19)
Western Kentucky offense is good on 3rd downs
Western Kentucky has a good pass defense (#30)

Western Kentucky Deficiencies
Western Kentucky Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Western Kentucky Can Not Run the Ball (#117)
Western Kentucky Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#114)
Western Kentucky run game is really bad (#112)
Western Kentucky gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#105)


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Logan Fife (Tr)5810854%756537.0
Glynn Johnson Jr11100%4004.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kadarius Calloway (Tr)245812.417
Dijon Stanley (Tr)184702.613
Logan Fife (Tr)233701.614
Isaiah Rudison4501.34
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Glynn Johnson Jr13211216.240
Donovan Faupel13177113.655
Gavin Harris (Tr)9130114.434
Brodrick Malone568113.641

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Jamall Thompson226210
Naeten Mitchell210000
Sone Aupiu202101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamall Thompson226210
Sone Aupiu202101
Tory Gethers173100
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez241013
Nicolas Sessions150002
Ezra Christensen (Tr)143132

Western Kentucky's OC Rick Bowie
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)8012067%9411017.8
Rodney Tisdale Jr.6875%941011.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marvis Parrish239304.022
Jaden McGill (Tr)166313.915
George Hart III175913.512
La'Vell Wright (Tr)113913.512
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Moussa Barry11210019.148
Matthew Henry (Tr)11198318.055
K.D. Hutchinson12184315.378
Marvis Parrish1410017.122

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster
Western Kentucky's DC DaVon Brown
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dave Herard140000
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)130001
Jaylen Wester (Tr)131010
Dylan Flowers101001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harper Holloman73103
Dominic Oliver (Tr)102100
Jayden Gray (Tr)72120
Jaden Hardy (Tr)102100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harper Holloman73103
Al-Ma'Hi Ali (Tr)80002
Lataj Wright00001