Texas State at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
M. M. Roberts Stadium - Hattiesburg, MS  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 25 (34 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Texas State -1.5   (SP+ TXST -10.5)

Projected Score: TXST: 29 - USM: 27 (57)
TXST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 520 miles
Golden Eagles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (20 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 11)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+8
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+22
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-19
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-4
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-2
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-10
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+4
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana+0.5
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss-1.5
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-12.5
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+13.557.5
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-15
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State-7.5
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech-5
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-9.5
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern+7.5
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana+4.5
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State+0
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State+1.5
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama+8.5
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy+2

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)36.549% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)24.538% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
USM#132 ()35% (130)15.340% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)37.845% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1336.533.848%3.891.6244381942455.252%47%49%48%13%.25
USM Defense1237.83344.1%4.170.8 - - - - - 55%45%45%43%14%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1324.52438.6%3.471.2 - - - - - 51%48%38%39%19%.14
USM Offense1215.319.534.7%2.752.4162841091753.249%51%40%30%26%

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1328:1724.145%64%6.156.51.61.26.92.4231
Southern Miss1227:2215.525%44%648.32.40.85.41.7226.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1352% (59)49% (14)37.1193.75.225 (41).16 (49)3.41 (11)75% (53)8% (35)0.88 (110)
USM Defense1255% (116)45% (89) - - - - .27 (129)3.22 (101)71% (54)10% (80)1.21 (131)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1351% (72)38% (21) - - - - .12 (67)2.97 (60)68% (34)14% (7)1.13 (123)
USM Offense1249% (79)40% (108)34.21093.213 (105).06 (103)2.59 (126)61% (124)18% (133)1 (53)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1347% (86)48% (10)20.930.2244.78.111.730 (9)13 (103).4 (13)1.5 (91)29% (31)34% (41).32 (74)5% (44)1.7 (131)
USM Defense1245% (20)43% (93) - - - - - - 6 (109).35 (114)1.7 (114)31% (77)35% (114).51 (124)5% (113)2.2 (116)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1348% (56)39% (54) - - - - - - 7 (104).19 (45)1.6 (62)35% (23)29% (44).3 (65)5% (106)2.2 (110)
USM Offense1251% (55)30% (133)13.826.5174.96.612.67 (130)17 (127)-.05 (134)1.7 (30)38% (130)24% (125).15 (129)8% (122)2.1 (45)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: -2.23 #68
Texas State's Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Texas State's Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
2025 Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -2.23   Southern Miss: -6.15

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: -7.2   Southern Miss: -17.7




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -6.15 #66
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 11.31 #83
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 10.91 #44
2025 Talent Rating: 738.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #55
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #128
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #126

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 525.43
Average Power Five Talent: 860.18
Average FBS Talent: 682.74


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33.8
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 24

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 29
Southern Miss 27


Projected Total Points: 57
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 15.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.5
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Texas State58Southern Miss3Texas StateTexas State -27.5Texas State56.5Over
202309/30Southern Miss36Texas State50Texas StateTexas State -6.5Texas State60.0Over
202210/22Texas State14Southern Miss20Southern MissSouthern Mississippi -2.5Southern Miss43.0Under
201509/19Texas State50Southern Miss56Southern MissTexas State -2Southern Miss67.0Over
201308/31Southern Miss15Texas State22Texas StateSouthern Mississippi -9.5Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss223 Overs
Texas State331 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 41 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams4 - 14 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#68) Texas State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.23 #68
Offense Rating: 13.59 #70
Defense Rating: 15.82 #74
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #111
Talent Rating: 540.00 #98
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #80
Expected Record: 6.7 - 5.3

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Great Offense Success Rate of 48%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Great Pass Success 48%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Texas State Notes
(7/13) QB1? 4 guys will battle, Jackson & 3 portals
(6/11) RB Pare has 2K yds & 20 total TDs in his career
(5/23) New OC Keopple downgrade Leftwich (T Tech)
(3/24) RB Pare (#2 LY) looks good, Burrell (UNLV)
(3/24) WR rebuild. Dawn/Sparks exp'd, 3 portal adds
(3/24) OL 3/5 back, good LY. 1 portal, some depth
(3/24) Def fell apart late LY, replacing most everyone
(3/24) Def portals 5 DL, 4 LB, 5 DBs. Will take time
(3/24) Kinne great HC, but has a ton to replace TY
Texas State     Ratings Matchup     Southern Miss
Power #68
#66
Off #70
#83
Def #74
#44
Talent #98
#63
SP+ #92
#128
SP+ Off #65
#114
SP+ Def #111
#126

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)
Southern Miss beat Texas State in 2022 (20-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TXST | USM
Depth Chart: TXST | USM
Rosters: TXST | USM
(#66) Southern Miss Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -6.15 #66
Offense Rating: 11.31 #83
Defense Rating: 10.91 #44
Overall SP+ Rating: -17.7 #128
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #126
Talent Rating: 738.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #55
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Poor OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 45%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Southern Miss Notes
(3/24) QB Braxton (Marsh) v good, mobile. Fun QB
(3/24) RB rebuild. 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(3/24) WR top 2 back, meh LY. 7 portal adds
(3/24) OL awful LY, 4/5 back, 7 portal adds
(3/24) Def bad LY, complete rebuild. 17 portals, 11 DBs
(3/24) New HC Huff a good one, a steal for S. Miss
(3/24) 1/2 roster is new. CB Moten (Marsh) great add
(3/24) New OC Anderson former Utah St HC.


  
Texas State's OC Landon Keopple
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Nate Yarnell (Tr)9816759%10561056.3
Brad Jackson81553%118107.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare9454785.873
Greg Burrell (Tr)6637035.642
Torrance Burgess Jr.6036726.157
Brad Jackson2317147.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Dawn Jr.37418611.360
Tiaquelin Mims (Tr)33393111.956
Beau Sparks25271210.824
Lincoln Pare12134011.222

View Texas State's Full Roster
Texas State's DC Dexter McCoil
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ryan Nolan521001
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
DJ Jackson291001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4011652
Jo'Laison Landry338540
Kenard Snyder (Tr)82200
Jermy Jackson Jr.21110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bobby Crosby181005
Trez Moore263024
Kalil Alexander4011652

Southern Miss's OC Blake Anderson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)12420660%16241927.9
John White173155%240037.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Braylon Braxton (Tr)13461044.635
Matt Jones (Tr)4321134.946
JQ Gray3210603.319
Robert Briggs (Tr)98809.855
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Charles Montgomery32393312.330
Carl Chester (Tr)20342317.142
Grant Page (Tr)3328128.535
Kyirin Heath15210214.034

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Jason Semore
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ian Foster (Tr)485004
Chris Jones463101
Brodarius Lewis398400
Josh Moten (Tr)380005
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brodarius Lewis398400
Jameer Lewis245251
Jabari Ishmael (Tr)223251
JJ Hawkins222173
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)380005
Ian Foster (Tr)485004
JJ Hawkins222173