Texas State at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
Texas State logo Texas State Bobcats at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, November 15th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Southern Miss -3 (65.5) (-162)  Open: -6.5
Texas State 41 - Southern Miss: 14  (Sun Belt)

 
Bobcats (6 - 6) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach G. J. Kinne (15 - 10)
Avg Score : 36 - 31 (34 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 6.1 (#70)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
TXST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Texas State -5.5  (SP+ TXST -6)

Projected Score: TXST: 36 - USM: 30 (66)
USM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
TXST Travel: 520 miles
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
Texas State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Texas State vs Eastern Michigan-14.058.5W 52 - 27OY
Sat 9/6 Texas State at UTSA+4.564.5W 43 - 36OY
Sat 9/13 Texas State at Arizona State+18.561.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/20 Texas State vs Nicholls-32.557.0W 35 - 3UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 Texas State at Arkansas State-14.063.5L 30 - 31UN
Sat 10/11 Texas State vs Troy-7.553.5L 41 - 48ON
Sat 10/18 Texas State at Marshall-3.065.5L 37 - 40ON
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/28 Texas State vs James Madison+7.555.5L 20 - 52ON
Sat 11/8 Texas State at Louisiana-3.562.5L 39 - 42ON
Sat 11/15 Texas State at Southern Miss+3.065.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/22 Texas State vs UL Monroe-20.559.5W 31 - 14UN
Sat 11/29 Texas State vs South Alabama-9.562.5W 49 - 26OY
Fri 1/2 Texas State vs Rice-16.555.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3

Predictions for Texas State's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 6
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#8 (.33)47% (24)36.146% (42)3.1 (40)22147% (19)2554.59 (14)#100 (.21)43% (85)30.643% (70)44% (98)4.1 (109)57.21.30.8
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TXST#25 (.25)48% (17)49% (14)3.41 (11)19448% (10)2453.89 (72)#50 (.14)39% (31)38% (21)39% (54)3.47 (33)56.51.61.2
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Offense1236.134.246.7%4.591.3234772212555.157%42%46%47%12%.33
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TXST Defense1230.632.842.9%4.10.8 - - - - - 51%47%43%44%15%.21
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Texas State1229:0822.848%59%6.857.21.30.86.81.8226.6
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Offense1257% (21)46% (42)43.1221.25.134 (4).27 (8)3.1 (40)66% (103)8% (34)1.14 (11)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TXST Defense1251% (91)43% (70) - - - - .12 (85)2.85 (60)71% (68)10% (61)1.05 (109)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Offense1242% (115)47% (19)19.627.9255.49.21318 (86)7 (7).43 (16)1.6 (33)29% (32)39% (9).56 (8)4% (12)2 (70)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TXST Defense1247% (54)44% (98) - - - - - - 8 (123).31 (95)1.6 (90)32% (58)35% (125).36 (102)5% (110)1.9 (31)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

Texas State's Power Ratings
Texas State's Power Rating: 6.12  #53
Texas State's Offense Rating: 17.24  #26
Texas State's Defense Rating: 11.12  #85
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00  #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Texas State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 6.1
Texas State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.3  #72
Texas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.4  #18
Texas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.1  #123

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 6.12   Southern Miss: -2.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Texas State: 0.3   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.16  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Texas State Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.2
Defense: 30.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Texas State's 2025 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Texas State 36
Southern Miss 30


Total Points: 66

Based on Last 4 Games
Southern Miss 42
Texas State 29

Total Points: 71

Based on Entire Season
Texas State 31
Southern Miss 31

Total Points: 62
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/15Southern Miss14Texas State41Southern Miss -3Texas State65.5Under
202411/16Texas State58Southern Miss3Texas State -27.5Texas State56.5Over
202309/30Southern Miss36Texas State50Texas State -6.5Texas State60.0Over
202210/22Texas State14Southern Miss20Southern Mississippi -2.5Southern Miss43.0Under
201509/19Texas State50Southern Miss56Texas State -2Southern Miss67.0Over
201308/31Southern Miss15Texas State22Southern Mississippi -9.5Texas State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss223 Overs
Texas State442 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 51 - 51 - 30 - 2
Road Teams5 - 15 - 12 - 03 - 1

(#53) TXST at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTXSTUSM
Power RatePwr #53 #85
SP+SP+ #72 #90
Perf GradeGrade #48 #36
OffenseOff #44 #76
DefenseDef #68 #10
Spec TeamsST #57 #40
TalentTal #89 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #56
Texas State Notes
(12/19) Hiring DC Will Windham (S Al's DC, Def was awful)
(10/29) 4 straight L's, Def embarrassing. DC McCoil fail
(10/29) Must finish 3-1 to bowl. Awful regress for GJ Kinne
(10/27) RB Pare lost in losing streak, underrated RB
(10/19) 3 straight L's, allowing 40 PPG, Pass Def is awful
(10/19) Off has been good, Pass game great, but Def costing
(10/11) Blew 28-7 vs Troy, pass Def torched for 415, 5 TDs
(10/11) Troy QB Kilcrease doubled season yds pass vs Def
(10/5) Hard L @ Ark St, Def is really bad and costing W's
(9/4) rFr QB Brad Jackson looks like the real deal
(9/4) Run Off mauled EMU, OL looked outstanding
(8/1) Over Bet Watch, Kinne Off trust, Def struggles
Texas State Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Texas State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #44 #10
SuccessSuc #24 #64
ExplosiveExp #17 #53
PPAPPA #8 #43
PowerPwr #26 #88
SP+SP+ #18 #102
Pts POPPO #14 #98
HavocHav #15 #32
Texas State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #41 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #42 #73
Run ExplRExp #11 #99
PPAExp #8 #93
Run BlockR Blk #46 -
OL YdsOLY #40 #87
Stuff RateStuff #40 #74
TackleTak -  #31
Texas State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
TXST OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #50 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #64
Pass ExplPExl #33 #40
PPAExp #16 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #36 #33
F7 HavocF7 #34 #89
DB HavocDB #12 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffTXST Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #68
SuccessSuc #104 #85
ExplosiveExp #22 #104
PPAPPA #68 #100
PowerPwr #75 #85
SP+SP+ #67 #123
Pts POPPO #80 #109
HavocHav #91 #94
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffTXST Def
Run GameRun #116 #50
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #70
Run ExplRExp #79 #109
PPAExp #77 #85
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #60
Stuff RateStuff #71 #15
TackleTak -  #121
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffTXST Def
Pass GamePass #35 #92
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #98
Pass ExplPExl #15 #90
PPAExp #57 #95
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #25
F7 HavocF7 #49 #61
DB HavocDB #121 #110
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

TXST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 77° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Southern Miss -3.0 (65.5)
Texas State won at Southern Miss this year (41-14)

Previous Matchups
Texas State beat Southern Miss last year (58-3)
Texas State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (50-36)
Southern Miss beat Texas State in 2022 (20-14)

  
TXST's OC Landon Keopple (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brad Jackson23432871%30491879.3
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Lincoln Pare2001023115.162
Brad Jackson160692164.363
Greg Burrell (Tr)9159036.561
Jaylen Jenkins2816726.058
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Beau Sparks801113913.973
Chris Dawn Jr.54931217.282
Lincoln Pare3630528.532
Kylen Evans15211114.145

View Texas State's Full Roster

TXST's DC Dexter McCoil (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Treylin Payne967222
Ryan Nolan682022
Bobby Crosby593203
Ayden Jones (Tr)461020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kalil Alexander4411440
Kenard Snyder (Tr)306320
Donterry Russell (Tr)175301
Treylin Payne967222
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaden Rios (Tr)234104
Amarion Atwood271023
Bobby Crosby593203

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127