Sam Houston at Western Kentucky - 2025 Matchup Preview

Sam Houston Bearkats at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Saturday, August 23rd 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
Western Kentucky -9.5 (60.5) (-360) Open: -9.5 | 60.5
Western Kentucky 41 - Sam Houston: 24 (Conference USA)

Bearkats (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Phil Longo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 38 (15 - 39 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Western Kentucky -27 (SP+ WKU -29)
Projected Score: SHSU: 15 - WKU: 42 (58)
WKU Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
SHSU Travel: 677 miles

Hilltoppers (9 - 4) (10 - 3 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (48 - 31)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (35 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SHSU Players
WKU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sam Houston's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Sam Houston at Western Kentucky	+9.5	60.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Fri 8/29	Sam Houston vs UNLV	+13.5	58.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/6	Sam Houston at Hawai'i	+7.0	47.5	L 20 - 37	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Sam Houston at Texas	+39.5	51.5	L 0 - 55	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 10/2	Sam Houston at New Mexico State	-1.5	53.5	L 10 - 37	U	N
Thu 10/9	Sam Houston vs Jacksonville State	+7.0	53.5	L 27 - 29	O	Y
Wed 10/15	Sam Houston vs UTEP	+3.5	46.5	L 17 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/31	Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech	+16.5	48.0	L 14 - 55	O	N
Sat 11/8	Sam Houston at Oregon State	+21.0	52.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/15	Sam Houston vs Delaware	+11.5	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee	+6.5	53.5	L 17 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/29	Sam Houston vs Florida International	+10.5	50.5	L 16 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Sam Houston's Schedule

Western Kentucky's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/23	Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston	-9.5	60.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 8/30	Western Kentucky vs North Alabama	-27.5	60.5	W 55 - 6	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Western Kentucky at Toledo	+8.5	57.5	L 21 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/20	Western Kentucky vs Nevada	-8.5	54.5	W 31 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Western Kentucky at Missouri State	-3.5	59.5	W 27 - 22	U	Y
Fri 10/3	Western Kentucky at Delaware	+2.5	62.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/14	Western Kentucky vs Florida International	-9.5	55.5	L 6 - 25	U	N
Tue 10/21	Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech	+5.5	49.5	W 28 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/1	Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State	-7.5	53.5	W 35 - 16	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee	-13.5	51.5	W 42 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Western Kentucky at LSU	+24.5	52.0	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State	-1.5	56.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Tue 12/23	Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss	+3.0	59.0	W 27 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU	#115 (.1)	39% (107)	17.8	41% (100)	3.18 (44)	180	38% (105)	168	2.97 (129)	#31 (.11)	42% (70)	37.8	47% (105)	37% (27)	3.84 (75)	37.9	1.2	2.1
WKU	#66 (.19)	42% (83)	29.5	38% (117)	2.78 (108)	110	45% (33)	265	3.83 (78)	#95 (.21)	45% (102)	22.8	48% (113)	40% (60)	3.66 (54)	41.3	1.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SHSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WKU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Offense	13	17.8	15.1	39.3%	2.97	1.2	19	349	180	168	4.3	57%	43%	41%	38%	15%	.1
WKU Defense	14	22.8	18.8	44.7%	3.66	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	63%	36%	48%	40%	13%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SHSU Defense	13	37.8	39	41.8%	3.84	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	37%	17%	.11
WKU Offense	14	29.5	35	41.8%	3.83	1.7	19	374	110	265	3.5	45%	55%	38%	45%	16%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sam Houston	13	32:10	18.8	39%	67%	4.6	37.9	1.2	2.1	5.4	2.2	2	30.4
Western Kentucky	14	27:52	19.3	41%	59%	4.1	41.3	1.7	1.5	4.9	1.6	0	29.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Offense	13	57% (25)	41% (100)	42.5	180.4	4.3	21 (59)	.1 (83)	3.18 (44)	68% (104)	10% (69)	0.9 (98)
WKU Defense	14	63% (134)	48% (113)	-	-	-	-	.19 (103)	3.36 (116)	77% (93)	9% (88)	0.9 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SHSU Defense	13	51% (74)	47% (105)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	3.37 (119)	75% (75)	10% (56)	0.83 (9)
WKU Offense	14	45% (105)	38% (117)	31.1	109.7	3.5	14 (98)	.01 (121)	2.78 (108)	69% (100)	11% (87)	0.95 (75)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Offense	13	43% (113)	38% (105)	16.7	26.8	168.2	6.3	10.1	15 (98)	9 (48)	.13 (114)	1.5 (106)	30% (51)	24% (126)	.13 (130)	5% (47)	2 (95)
WKU Defense	14	36% (1)	40% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (99)	1.8 (128)	28% (116)	29% (47)	.23 (37)	3% (132)	2.1 (92)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SHSU Defense	13	48% (60)	37% (27)	-	-	-	-	-	-	16 (10)	.06 (6)	1.4 (9)	32% (57)	25% (11)	.21 (32)	6% (58)	1.8 (12)
WKU Offense	14	55% (26)	45% (33)	22.1	33.5	264.6	7.9	12	28 (15)	12 (85)	.36 (28)	1.6 (59)	33% (91)	30% (91)	.29 (89)	6% (56)	1.9 (100)

Sam Houston's Power Ratings
Sam Houston's Power Rating: -25.75 #136
Sam Houston's Offense Rating: 1.86 #130
Sam Houston's Defense Rating: 27.61 #137
2025 Talent Rating: 476.00 #121
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Sam Houston's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Sam Houston's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -27.8 #135
Sam Houston's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.3 #129
Sam Houston's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.8 #135

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -25.75 Western Kentucky: 0.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sam Houston: -27.8 Western Kentucky: 1.6

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: 0.125 #84
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.64 #104
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 13.99 #71
2025 Talent Rating: 620.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #88
Western Kentucky's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
Western Kentucky's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6 #69
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #78

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 436
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Sam Houston Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.1
Defense: 37.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 39

Sam Houston's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0

Projected Score
Western Kentucky 42
Sam Houston 15

Projected Total Points: 58

Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 35
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.8

Western Kentucky's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/23	Western Kentucky	41	Sam Houston	24	Western Kentucky -9.5	Western Kentucky	60.5	Over
2024	10/16	Sam Houston	14	Western Kentucky	31	Sam Houston -1.5	Western Kentucky	55.0	Under
2023	11/18	Western Kentucky	28	Sam Houston	23	Western Kentucky -12.5	Sam Houston	52.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Western Kentucky	3	2	1 Overs
Sam Houston	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#136) SHSU at (#84) WKU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SHSU	WKU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#136	#84
SP+SP+	#135	#69
Perf GradeGrade	#134	#65
OffenseOff	#135	#69
DefenseDef	#128	#71
Spec TeamsST	#47	#20
TalentTal	#121	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#88

Sam Houston Notes(10/10) Def could not hold vs Jax St, QB Watson is tough
(10/3) Hilarious mistakes vs NMSU, no wonder still 0 wins
(10/3) Def awful, Off somehow worse. Longo grade F-
(8/30) QB Watson cannot run this system, big issue
(8/23) QB1? Watson running air raid likely not good
(7/13) Home games 70 miles off campus (Shell Energy)
(7/11) QB Mettauer big arm, was Longo's pick at Wisc
(7/11) Over Bet Watch. Def down, Pass Off up
(6/6) Not a fan of HC Phil Long hire at all.
(6/6) Could be a bottom Def in CFB, DBs are JUCOs
(5/23) SHSU was 6-0 in 1 score games LY
(3/26) QB Watson JAG w/ mobility. No depth exp
Sam Houston Injury Report

Western Kentucky Notes(10/22) Escaped LT in OT, QB Tisdale OK but is mobile
(10/21) QB1 McIvor shoulder inj, R. Tisdale (Fr) vs La Tech
(10/15) FIU performance off a bye? Completely unprepared
(10/15) McIover last 4 games, 2 TD, 4 INT, 231 YPG.
(10/14) Shameful performance vs FIU, OG'd by 200+, Off awful
(10/4) Lucky W @ Del, OG'd by 100 yds, 2 TOs for TDs.
(10/4) QB McIvor is fun in an extremely pass heavy Off
(8/23) Likely 7-8 portal starters on both Off & Def
(8/2) Over Bet Watch, McIvor off great, Def rough
(7/25) Def portal adds include 11 DL, 3 LB, 8 DBs.
(7/25) WR complete rebuild. Took 7 portals + 2 TEs
(7/25) OL rebuild. 10 portal adds. Will take some time
Western Kentucky Injury Report

Sam Houston on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#135	#71
SuccessSuc	#107	#102
ExplosiveExp	#127	#36
PPAPPA	#115	#95
PowerPwr	#130	#71
SP+SP+	#129	#78
Pts POPPO	#129	#54
HavocHav	#53	#122

Sam Houston Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
Run GameRun	#122	#65
Run SuccessRSuc	#100	#113
Run ExplRExp	#98	#35
PPAExp	#83	#103
Run BlockR Blk	#125	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#116
Stuff RateStuff	#34	#128
TackleTak	-	#119

Sam Houston Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	SHSU Off	WKU Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#52
Pass SuccessPSuc	#105	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#106	#128
PPAExp	#114	#99
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#83	#81
F7 HavocF7	#69	#88
DB HavocDB	#47	#132

Western Kentucky on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#69	#128
SuccessSuc	#83	#70
ExplosiveExp	#33	#3
PPAPPA	#66	#31
PowerPwr	#104	#137
SP+SP+	#56	#135
Pts POPPO	#78	#75
HavocHav	#73	#58

Western Kentucky Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
Run GameRun	#72	#114
Run SuccessRSuc	#117	#105
Run ExplRExp	#75	#9
PPAExp	#121	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#95	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#129
TackleTak	-	#122

Western Kentucky Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	WKU Off	SHSU Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#33	#27
Pass ExplPExl	#59	#9
PPAExp	#28	#6
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#48	#125
F7 HavocF7	#87	#56
DB HavocDB	#56	#58

Program Comparison
WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

SHSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Western Kentucky -9.5 (60.5)
Western Kentucky won vs Sam Houston this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston last year (41-24)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2024 (31-14)
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston in 2023 (28-23)

SHSU's OC Zack Patterson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Watson	104	182	57%	1108	5	4	6.1
Landyn Locke	71	141	50%	765	4	4	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Landan Brown	84	487	5	5.8	63
Elijah Green (Tr)	58	391	2	6.7	80
Alton McCaskill (Tr)	88	371	1	4.2	52
Hunter Watson	74	276	2	3.7	55

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Reed	30	460	5	15.3	54
Grady O'Neill (Tr)	38	392	1	10.3	29
Landan Brown	37	237	0	6.4	24
Tim Burns Jr.	12	228	1	19.0	59

View Sam Houston's Full Roster

SHSU's DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Fish (Tr)	78	6	1	1	0
CJ Brown (Tr)	64	2	0	0	4
Tyler Bailey	45	1	1	0	2
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Christopher Eaton Jr. (Tr)	26	9	5	5	0
Chauncey Chidi	31	4	3	0	0
Dean Ford	32	6	2	2	0
Dylan Frazier	41	4	2	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emon Allen	40	4	0	0	5
Cecil Powell (Tr)	42	4	0	1	4
AJ Edwards	41	3	1	1	4

WKU's OC Will Friend (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maverick McIvor (Tr)	183	273	67%	2062	12	6	7.6
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	139	212	66%	1432	9	7	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marvis Parrish	106	576	1	5.4	66
La'Vell Wright (Tr)	85	471	10	5.5	39
George Hart III	70	300	5	4.3	36
Rodney Tisdale Jr.	52	108	2	2.1	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matthew Henry (Tr)	55	888	6	16.1	55
K.D. Hutchinson	66	618	3	9.4	78
Moussa Barry	34	488	1	14.4	48
Noah Meyers	32	357	3	11.2	62

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Tyson Summers (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Wester (Tr)	106	7	2	3	2
Anthony Brackenridge	74	5	1	2	3
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	0	5
Dave Herard	58	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dominic Oliver (Tr)	20	4	3	0	0
Koron Hayward	19	4	3	2	1
Jalen Emery (Tr)	18	3	2	1	3
Harper Holloman	39	6	2	6	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Nazir Ward	35	3	1	6
Jaylen Lewis (Tr)	74	4	0	5
Jai Eugene Jr.	21	2	1	5