App State at Southern Miss - 2025 Matchup Preview
App State logo App State Mountaineers at Southern Miss Golden EaglesSouthern Miss logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (7:00 PM EDT)
App State -3 (55.5) (-155)  Open: 0.0
Southern Miss 38 - App State: 22  (Sun Belt)

 
Mountaineers (5 - 8) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dowell Loggains (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (22 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
Temp: 91.6° (30% Hum)
USM 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Southern Miss -8.5  (SP+ USM -5)

Projected Score: APP: 23 - USM: 31 (54)
APP Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
APP Travel: 553 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (31 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 10)
 
App State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 App State vs Charlotte-8.553.5W 34 - 11UY
Sat 9/6 App State vs Lindenwood-31.556.0W 20 - 13UN
Sat 9/13 App State at Southern Miss-3.055.5L 22 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 App State at Boise State+16.559.5L 14 - 47ON
Sat 10/4 App State vs Oregon State-1.553.5W 27 - 23UY
Sat 10/11 App State at Georgia State-3.055.5W 41 - 20OY
Sat 10/18 App State vs Coastal Carolina-10.548.5L 37 - 45ON
Sat 10/25 App State at Old Dominion+12.560.5L 21 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 App State vs Georgia Southern-4.562.5L 23 - 25UN
Sat 11/15 App State at James Madison+21.053.5L 10 - 58ON
Sat 11/22 App State vs Marshall+3.557.5W 26 - 24UY
Sat 11/29 App State vs Arkansas State-1.054.5L 29 - 30ON
Mon 12/29 App State vs Georgia Southern+10.058.5L 10 - 29UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for App State's Schedule
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 6, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#93 (.13)41% (85)24.243% (73)2.99 (58)11440% (85)2423.69 (71)#77 (.18)45% (109)29.845% (97)45% (114)4.18 (116)58.91.41.4
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
APP#57 (.21)44% (60)45% (58)3.01 (75)15743% (62)2733.89 (71)#123 (.3)49% (127)51% (130)47% (119)4.78 (132)5721.2
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Offense1324.221.641.5%3.691.4193561142423.942%56%43%40%17%.13
USM Defense1327.427.341.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
APP Defense1329.837.444.7%4.181.4 - - - - - 45%53%45%45%17%.18
USM Offense1328.830.939.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
App State1326:0119.533%63%6.358.91.41.45.42.2128
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Offense1342% (121)43% (73)291143.911 (99).07 (92)2.99 (58)67% (96)8% (29)0.77 (131)
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
APP Defense1345% (16)45% (97) - - - - .05 (44)2.8 (55)70% (57)10% (57)0.82 (10)
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Offense1356% (15)40% (85)21.836.8241.86.611.123 (33)11 (108).23 (79)1.6 (60)33% (99)33% (35).33 (59)9% (133)1.9 (107)
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
APP Defense1353% (122)45% (114) - - - - - - 12 (22).31 (96)1.5 (52)32% (55)32% (93).36 (103)7% (24)2.2 (116)
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: -11.03  #112
App State's Offense Rating: 3.41  #105
App State's Defense Rating: 14.44  #108
2025 Talent Rating: 650.00  #84
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #101
App State's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 7.5
App State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.6  #108
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.0  #92
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #119

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: -11.03   Southern Miss: -2.16

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: -10.6   Southern Miss: -5.6




Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -2.16  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


App State Scoring
Offense: 24.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

App State's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 31
App State 23


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
App State 25
Southern Miss 25

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 32
App State 25

Total Points: 57
Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Southern Miss38App State22App State -3Southern Miss55.5Over
202310/28App State48Southern Miss38Appalachian State -16Southern Miss55.5Over
201409/20Southern Miss21App State20Southern Mississippi -4App State0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Southern Miss222 Overs
App State110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 20 - 21 - 0
Road Teams0 - 32 - 10 - 12 - 0

(#112) APP at (#85) USM
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAPPUSM
Power RatePwr #112 #85
SP+SP+ #108 #90
Perf GradeGrade #90 #36
OffenseOff #98 #76
DefenseDef #53 #10
Spec TeamsST #36 #40
TalentTal #84 #52
Blue ChipsBC% #101 #56
App State Notes
(10/19) Horrific home loss to C Car, Run Def mauled 240+
(10/19) So QB JJ Kohl taken over for Swann (was injured)
(9/22) App has lost 5 straight road games into Boise St
(8/30) Swann great vs Char, Run game decent, Def imp
(8/1) Poss worst DL in SBC, 7 portal adds are meh
(8/1) Entire new team, portals meh, no bowl TY
(8/1) Def bottomed out LY. DL weak. LB avg, CB OK
(8/1) Don't love Loggains hire, SC was done w/ him
(7/13) WR rebuild, Stroman exp'd, 4 portal adds
(6/3) Watch WR J Barnes (A Peay) 1k yds, slot guy
(6/3) QB JJ Kohl (ISU) had best spring, Swann (LSU)?
(6/3) OL 3/5 back, bad LY. 8 portals, weak in spring
App State Injury Report
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
App State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #98 #10
SuccessSuc #85 #64
ExplosiveExp #97 #53
PPAPPA #93 #43
PowerPwr #105 #88
SP+SP+ #92 #102
Pts POPPO #71 #98
HavocHav #99 #32
App State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #87 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #73 #73
Run ExplRExp #131 #99
PPAExp #92 #93
Run BlockR Blk #99 -
OL YdsOLY #58 #87
Stuff RateStuff #27 #74
TackleTak -  #31
App State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
APP OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #74 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #85 #64
Pass ExplPExl #60 #40
PPAExp #79 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #115 #33
F7 HavocF7 #29 #89
DB HavocDB #133 #10
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffAPP Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #53
SuccessSuc #104 #109
ExplosiveExp #22 #44
PPAPPA #68 #77
PowerPwr #75 #108
SP+SP+ #67 #119
Pts POPPO #80 #116
HavocHav #91 #42
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffAPP Def
Run GameRun #116 #24
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #97
Run ExplRExp #79 #10
PPAExp #77 #44
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #55
Stuff RateStuff #71 #78
TackleTak -  #61
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUSM OffAPP Def
Pass GamePass #35 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #114
Pass ExplPExl #15 #52
PPAExp #57 #96
Pass Block/RushP Blk #45 #9
F7 HavocF7 #49 #57
DB HavocDB #121 #24
Program Comparison
USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

APP 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in M. M. Roberts Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 92°
Rematch from Week 3
App State 3.0 (55.5)
Southern Miss won vs App State this year (38-22)

Previous Matchups
App State beat Southern Miss in 2023 (48-38)

  
APP's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann (Tr)13022259%14941086.7
J.J. Kohl (Tr)13321662%14651226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rashod Dubinion (Tr)17486845.039
Jaquari Lewis12456364.527
J.J. Kohl (Tr)305011.732
Khamani Alexander72804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Barnes (Tr)55608711.159
Dalton Stroman32569417.872
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Izayah Cummings (Tr)37374110.130

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC D. J. Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colton Phares899223
Zyeir Gamble663004
DJ Burks652005
Elijah Mc-Cantos521002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Abrams-Verwayne397552
Aiden Benton345460
Caleb Sandstrom (Tr)194432
Thomas Davis256320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Johnson4010011
DJ Burks652005
Emory Floyd Jr. (Tr)471004

USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127