Southern Miss at Georgia Southern - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Georgia Southern EaglesGeorgia Southern logo
Thursday, October 9th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Paulson Stadium - Statesboro, GA  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (31 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8 - 4 (#41)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 9)
USM coming off BYE
GASO coming off BYE
Our Line: Southern Miss -10.5   (SP+ USM -2)

Projected Score: USM: 37 - GASO: 27 (64)
USM Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
USM Travel: 449 miles, 1 hrs behind
Eagles (1 - 2) (1 - 2 - 0)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 25 - 45 (41 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.3 - 7.7 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-11
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-10.5
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-3
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-18
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-8
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State+1
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama+2
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia Southern at Fresno State+2.554.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia Southern at USC+29.061.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 9/13 Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State-3.059.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Southern vs Maine-5.5
Sat 9/27 Georgia Southern at James Madison+24
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss+10.5
Sat 10/18 Georgia Southern vs Georgia State-5
Sat 10/25 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State+5
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 Georgia Southern at App State+10.5
Sat 11/15 Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina+1.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion+14.5
Sat 11/29 Georgia Southern at Marshall+7

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#67 (.2)42% (78)3140% (99)2.91 (76)11745% (56)2343.76 (81)#51 (.07)40% (76)25.347% (106)34% (41)3.39 (64)590.72
GASO#125 ()36% (117)2543% (81)3.76 (12)14833% (116)1953.89 (74)#135 (.54)64% (136)4571% (136)59% (135)5.17 (125)4011.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)46% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)47% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense3313142.4%3.760.7203511172343.746%54%40%45%15%.2
GASO Defense3453464.4%5.171.7 - - - - - 54%44%71%59%8%.54
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense325.325.340.4%3.392 - - - - - 49%50%47%34%21%.07
GASO Offense3254136.2%3.891213431481954.636%62%43%33%15%

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss327:1620.346%33%7590.725.73233.3
Georgia Southern327:052141%67%3.74011.740.3124
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense346% (94)40% (99)321173.73 (95).04 (99)2.91 (76)71% (67)8% (53)0.91 (81)
GASO Defense354% (101)71% (136) - - - - .48 (136)4.49 (136)89% (119)5% (132)0.99 (79)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense349% (64)47% (106) - - - - .29 (126)2.99 (90)69% (63)8% (101)1.16 (107)
GASO Offense336% (132)43% (81)32148.34.63 (95).11 (82)3.76 (12)100% (1)8% (58)0.64 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense354% (43)45% (56)23.3342346.9107 (23)2 (60).36 (55)1.6 (55)34% (102)35% (48).33 (70)7% (115)2 (70)
GASO Defense344% (27)59% (135) - - - - - - 3 (28).8 (134)1.7 (111)17% (136)57% (136).79 (132)3% (116)1.6 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense350% (71)34% (41) - - - - - - 6 (2)-.13 (11)1.4 (37)34% (54)35% (108).37 (96)13% (1)2.1 (96)
GASO Offense362% (7)33% (116)1932.3194.7610.36 (34)2 (60)-.03 (130)1.6 (41)36% (119)24% (114).22 (97)7% (102)2.1 (58)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: 1.74 #76
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 7.12 #69
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #110
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #99
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: 1.74   Georgia Southern: -15.32

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -11.4   Georgia Southern: -13.4




Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -15.32 #136
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 6.65 #96
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 31.76 #136
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #117
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #88
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #129

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.3

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 37
Georgia Southern 27


Total Points: 64

Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense at Home: 41
Defense: 45 PPG
Defense at Home: 34

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia Southern000 Overs
Southern Miss000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#76) Southern Miss Info
Power Rating: 1.74 #76
Offense Rating: 8.86 #85
Defense Rating: 7.12 #69
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #110
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #99
Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #113
Talent Rating: 804.00 #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #56
Expected Record: 8.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.76 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 45%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.39 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Good Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

Southern Miss has lost 2 straight
Southern Miss has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 0 (0 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Southern Miss Notes
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
(8/1) Def all new. 25 portals, 11 DL & 12 DBs
(8/1) Most of roster is new. Could be big turnaround
(8/1) New OC Anderson is a great OC, (Ut St HC)
(7/27) More return prod from Marshall than Marshall
(3/24) QB Braxton (Marsh) v good, mobile. Fun QB
(3/24) WR top 2 back, meh LY. 7 portal adds

Southern Miss Highlights
Southern Miss offense is good on 3rd downs
Southern Miss Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Southern Miss Secondary is very good (#1)
Southern Miss has a great TO Margin (#28)
Southern Miss defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#2)

Southern Miss Deficiencies
Southern Miss Can Not Run the Ball (#109)
Southern Miss Does Not Stuff Runs (#105)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatGASOUSM
OverallOver#95#36
OffenseOff#58#66
DefenseDef#108#19
Special TeamsST#56#23
PassingPass#54#53
RushingRush#51#64
Run BlockRBLK#41#89
Pass BlockPBLK#23#52
Route RunningWR Rt#89#41
TacklingTkl#101#21
Run DefenseR Def#113#53
Pass Rush DefPRush#111#25
Coverage DefCov#64#11

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USM | GASO
Depth Chart: USM | GASO
Rosters: USM | GASO
(#136) Georgia Southern Info
Power Rating: -15.32 #136
Offense Rating: 6.65 #96
Defense Rating: 31.76 #136
Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4 #117
Offense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #129
Talent Rating: 586.00 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 4.3 - 7.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 36%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.89 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 33%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Poor DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 64%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.17 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 71%
Awful Pass Def Success 59%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Georgia Southern has lost 2 straight
Georgia Southern has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Georgia Southern Notes
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
(3/24) WR Cobb/Dallas back (2/3 LY). Have depth
(3/24) OL 4/5 back, T Williams also exp'd. Looks good

Georgia Southern Highlights
Georgia Southern is Undefeated at Home
Georgia Southern is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Georgia Southern has a top Offensive Line (#12)
Georgia Southern commits very few Penalties (#16)
Georgia Southern defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Georgia Southern Deficiencies
Georgia Southern offense is really bad (#117)
Georgia Southern pass game is really bad (#116)
Georgia Southern Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Georgia Southern Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
Georgia Southern does not Sack the QB (#130)
Georgia Southern has a bad defense (#136)
Georgia Southern Does Not Stuff Runs (#135)
Georgia Southern has a bad defensive line (#136)
Georgia Southern has a bad red zone defense (#125)


  
Southern Miss's OC Blake Anderson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)689969%692727.0
Landy Lyddy1250%11005.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)2512625.023
Braylon Braxton (Tr)2910503.617
Robert Briggs (Tr)186913.815
Matt Jones (Tr)154002.78
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)10124012.448
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)5116023.241
Carl Chester (Tr)892011.523
Micah Davis (Tr)87439.321

View Southern Miss's Full Roster
Southern Miss's DC Jason Semore
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones301002
Michael Montgomery (Tr)270001
Josh Moten (Tr)240003
Ian Foster (Tr)231003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)153320
Jameer Lewis82100
Josh Battle (Tr)202100
Garrick Ponder52120
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)240003
Ian Foster (Tr)231003
Anthony Richard51003

Georgia Southern's OC Ryan Aplin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
JC French528760%528526.1
Turner Helton (Tr)4944%24002.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
OJ Arnold3321426.541
David Mbadinga238503.711
Jamarian Samuel772010.336
JC French204612.310
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Camden Brown (Tr)9163418.132
Dalen Cobb15154110.323
Marcus Sanders Jr.784012.018
Josh Dallas86808.517

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster
Georgia Southern's DC Brandon Bailey
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Tyson (Tr)301010
Brendan Harrington (Tr)190000
Jusfin Meyers170001
Ayden Jackson140010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Devin Collier81100
Brandon Tyson (Tr)301010
Phillip Gladney20000
Antavious Murphy20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dorrian Smith41002
Jaquari Brown61002
Jusfin Meyers170001