Southern Miss at Georgia Southern - 2025 Matchup Preview
Southern Miss logo Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Georgia Southern EaglesGeorgia Southern logo
Thursday, October 9th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Southern Miss -3 (59.5) (-142)  Open: -1.5
Southern Miss 38 - Georgia Southern: 35  (Sun Belt)

 
Golden Eagles (7 - 6) (5 - 7 - 1)
Coach Charles Huff (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 29 - 27 (28 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)
USM coming off BYE
GASO coming off BYE
Our Line: Southern Miss -4.5  (SP+ USM -5.5)

Projected Score: USM: 32 - GASO: 28 (60)
USM Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
USM Travel: 449 miles, 1 hrs behind
Eagles (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Clay Helton (20 - 18)
Avg Score : 28 - 32 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 6.5 (#75)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
Southern Miss's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Southern Miss vs Mississippi State+11.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Southern Miss vs Jackson State-13.553.0W 38 - 20OY
Sat 9/13 Southern Miss vs App State+3.055.5W 38 - 22OY
Sat 9/20 Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech+3.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 9/27 Southern Miss vs Jacksonville State-4.555.5W 42 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Southern Miss at Georgia Southern-3.059.5W 38 - 35ON
Sat 10/18 Southern Miss at Louisiana-4.554.5W 22 - 10UY
Sat 10/25 Southern Miss vs UL Monroe-14.048.5W 49 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Southern Miss at Arkansas State-6.554.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Southern Miss vs Texas State-3.065.5L 14 - 41UN
Sat 11/22 Southern Miss at South Alabama-2.553.0L 35 - 42ON
Sat 11/29 Southern Miss vs Troy-6.550.5L 18 - 28UN
Tue 12/23 Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky-3.059.0L 16 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Southern Miss's Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Georgia Southern at Fresno State+2.554.5L 14 - 42ON
Sat 9/6 Georgia Southern at USC+29.061.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 9/13 Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State-3.059.0W 41 - 34OY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Southern vs Maine-22.057.5W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/27 Georgia Southern at James Madison+14.554.5L 10 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Georgia Southern vs Southern Miss+3.059.5L 35 - 38OY
Sat 10/18 Georgia Southern vs Georgia State-6.558.5W 41 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 Georgia Southern at Arkansas State-1.559.5L 24 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 Georgia Southern at App State+4.562.5W 25 - 23UY
Sat 11/15 Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina-3.059.5W 45 - 40OY
Sat 11/22 Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion+10.062.0L 10 - 45UN
Sat 11/29 Georgia Southern at Marshall+10.561.5W 24 - 19UY
Mon 12/29 Georgia Southern vs App State-10.058.5W 29 - 10UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Southern's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#68 (.18)39% (104)28.839% (109)2.95 (67)12740% (91)2463.6 (80)#43 (.11)42% (64)27.443% (73)41% (64)3.94 (98)52.51.12
GASO#39 (.21)45% (41)27.946% (43)3.2 (22)13745% (36)2344.01 (40)#133 (.3)49% (133)32.351% (134)47% (125)4.45 (130)47.30.91.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USM#132 ()35% (130)40% (108)2.59 (126)10930% (133)1752.75 (133)#125 (.3)44% (97)45% (89)43% (93)4.17 (104)48.32.40.8
GASO#68 (.19)43% (65)46% (44)2.84 (101)12840% (85)2384.57 (17)#105 (.23)45% (108)47% (109)44% (102)3.81 (71)48.31.71.5



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Offense1328.828.439.3%3.61.1203731272463.848%51%39%40%16%.18
GASO Defense1332.33349.1%4.451.2 - - - - - 51%47%51%47%15%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USM Defense1327.427.641.5%3.942 - - - - - 52%45%43%41%18%.11
GASO Offense1327.936.245%4.010.9203711372344.249%49%46%45%14%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Southern Miss1325:312040%50%6.552.51.125.22.1329.5
Georgia Southern1327:0920.445%53%547.30.91.24.30.9128.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Offense1348% (79)39% (109)33.3126.63.818 (78).09 (77)2.95 (67)67% (99)9% (49)0.94 (79)
GASO Defense1351% (86)51% (134) - - - - .28 (135)3.4 (134)74% (88)9% (83)1.07 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USM Defense1352% (102)43% (73) - - - - .14 (93)2.98 (87)78% (112)9% (89)1.02 (99)
GASO Offense1349% (75)46% (43)32.5136.74.216 (60).16 (45)3.2 (22)73% (60)9% (54)0.92 (87)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Offense1351% (53)40% (91)20.431.2246.27.912.125 (33)10 (34).28 (57)1.7 (15)34% (119)30% (74).33 (57)8% (121)2.1 (45)
GASO Defense1347% (55)47% (125) - - - - - - 8 (75).37 (117)1.5 (54)29% (105)37% (133).36 (101)6% (73)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USM Defense1345% (33)41% (64) - - - - - - 21 (3).14 (22)1.5 (40)32% (67)30% (75).27 (63)8% (10)2.2 (120)
GASO Offense1349% (66)45% (36)19.631.1233.87.511.925 (33)8 (88).3 (48)1.6 (64)29% (38)36% (20).46 (17)5% (30)2.1 (59)

Southern Miss's Power Ratings
Southern Miss's Power Rating: -3.72  #85
Southern Miss's Offense Rating: 7.79  #75
Southern Miss's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 804.00  #52
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #56
Southern Miss's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Southern Miss's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.6  #90
Southern Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.8  #67
Southern Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.8  #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -3.72   Georgia Southern: -9.085

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Southern Miss: -5.6   Georgia Southern: -11.3




Georgia Southern's Power Ratings
Georgia Southern's Power Rating: -9.085  #118
Georgia Southern's Offense Rating: 11.75  #53
Georgia Southern's Defense Rating: 23.62  #135
2025 Talent Rating: 586.00  #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Georgia Southern's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 6.5
Georgia Southern's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3  #111
Georgia Southern's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #66
Georgia Southern's Defense SP+ Rating: 39.3  #131

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 574.86
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Southern Miss Scoring
Offense: 28.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

Southern Miss's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Southern Miss 32
Georgia Southern 28


Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia Southern 32
Southern Miss 29

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Southern Miss 31
Georgia Southern 30

Total Points: 61
Georgia Southern Scoring
Offense: 27.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.2
Defense: 32.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 33

Georgia Southern's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/09Georgia Southern35Southern Miss38Southern Miss -3NA59.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia Southern001 Overs
Southern Miss100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#85) USM at (#118) GASO
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSMGASO
Power RatePwr #85 #118
SP+SP+ #90 #111
Perf GradeGrade #36 #112
OffenseOff #76 #61
DefenseDef #10 #134
Spec TeamsST #40 #115
TalentTal #52 #99
Blue ChipsBC% #56 #65
Southern Miss Notes
(12/11) HC Huff left for Memphis after only one season
(12/11) Hired OC Blake Anderson at HC. Decent hire?
(10/19) Run Def suspect vs ULL, allowed 220+. Forced 3 TOs
(10/10) Beat GASO by 3 but needed 3 TOs, 12 flags. Unclear
(10/9) Punter Murley is awful. Will not change the field
(10/9) Nearly blew GASO game, outscored 28-10 but held
(9/21) OG'd La Tech 514-340 & found a way to lose?
(8/30) Outclassed by MSU, Braxton OK, we'll see
(8/1) So Miss could really contend for SBC w/ adds
(8/1) Off added 10 OL, 8 WR, 3 TE, 5 RB & 3 QBs
(8/1) RB has 5 portal adds. Jones/Gray exp'd
(8/1) OL should really improve w/ 10 portal adds
Southern Miss Injury Report
Georgia Southern Notes
(10/22) DL is statistically bottom 5 in CFB, line yds & havoc
(10/22) Defense is worst in CFB in Success Rate, Off Avg
(10/9) French 3 INT, team 12 flags, comeback short vs USM
(8/25) Will stay out West between @ Fresno & USC
(8/1) Two West coast games to open. Impact?
(8/1) QB French way to many TOs under pressure LY
(8/1) QB/RB/WR combo great potential as tops in SBC
(8/1) DBs could be strong TY but F7 has lots of ?
(7/12) Helton QBs are historically TO prone
(4/7) WR Brown (Aub) impressive. QB as good depth
(3/24) QB French back. Helton (WKU) added
(3/24) RB Arnold, Mbadinga exp'd. Gibbs big croot
Georgia Southern Injury Report
Southern Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffGASO Def
Perf GradePerf #76 #134
SuccessSuc #104 #133
ExplosiveExp #22 #82
PPAPPA #68 #133
PowerPwr #75 #135
SP+SP+ #67 #131
Pts POPPO #80 #130
HavocHav #91 #84
Southern Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffGASO Def
Run GameRun #116 #136
Run SuccessRSuc #109 #134
Run ExplRExp #79 #116
PPAExp #77 #135
Run BlockR Blk #118 -
OL YdsOLY #67 #134
Stuff RateStuff #71 #116
TackleTak -  #79
Southern Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
USM OffGASO Def
Pass GamePass #35 #81
Pass SuccessPSuc #91 #125
Pass ExplPExl #15 #54
PPAExp #57 #117
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #45 #133
F7 HavocF7 #49 #83
DB HavocDB #121 #73
Georgia Southern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatGASO OffUSM Def
Perf GradePerf #61 #10
SuccessSuc #41 #64
ExplosiveExp #67 #53
PPAPPA #39 #43
PowerPwr #53 #88
SP+SP+ #66 #102
Pts POPPO #40 #98
HavocHav #44 #32
Georgia Southern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
GASO OffUSM Def
Run GameRun #71 #22
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #73
Run ExplRExp #87 #99
PPAExp #45 #93
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #87
Stuff RateStuff #45 #74
TackleTak -  #31
Georgia Southern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatGASO OffUSM Def
Pass GamePass #75 #13
Pass SuccessPSuc #36 #64
Pass ExplPExl #64 #40
PPAExp #48 #22
Pass Block/RushP Blk #20 #33
F7 HavocF7 #54 #89
DB HavocDB #30 #10
Program Comparison
GASO 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

USM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Paulson Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 66°
Rematch from Week 7
Southern Miss 3.0 (59.5)
Southern Miss won at Georgia Southern this year (38-35)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USM's OC Blake Anderson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braylon Braxton (Tr)25440064%30532487.6
Landy Lyddy345265%406237.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeffery Pittman (Tr)15669584.525
Matt Jones (Tr)8232544.017
Robert Briggs (Tr)6230414.924
Braylon Braxton (Tr)9821512.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Elijah Metcalf (Tr)54683212.676
Carl Chester (Tr)30550618.352
Tychaun Chapman (Tr)24444318.550
Micah Davis (Tr)31429513.898

View Southern Miss's Full Roster

USM's DC Jason Semore (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Corey Myrick (Tr)915014
Ian Foster (Tr)764127
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
J'Mond Tapp (Tr)69128102
Garrick Ponder3712540
Chris Jones13210402
Michael Montgomery (Tr)1066302
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Moten (Tr)6110010
Anthony Richard271008
Ian Foster (Tr)764127

GASO's OC Ryan Aplin (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
JC French23136563%27531987.5
Turner Helton (Tr)142654%74102.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
OJ Arnold13388556.762
JC French12127762.321
David Mbadinga4919614.016
Taeo Todd2610203.919
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Camden Brown (Tr)6310491416.773
Marcus Sanders Jr.45725416.152
Dalen Cobb5247139.143
OJ Arnold17201111.841

View Georgia Southern's Full Roster

GASO's DC Brandon Bailey (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jusfin Meyers821015
Brandon Tyson (Tr)792062
Brendan Harrington (Tr)772003
Ayden Jackson714013
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
MJ Stroud3115762
Caleb Moore (Tr)213221
CJ Allen162110
Devin Collier201100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tracy Hill Jr.394106
Jusfin Meyers821015
Elijah McDowell80004