Liberty at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview
Liberty logo Liberty Flames vs Oregon Ducks(#7)Oregon logo
Monday, January 1st 2024 (1:00 PM EST)
Oregon -18.5 (71.5) (-750)  Open: -15.0 | 65.5
Oregon 45 - Liberty: 6  (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)

 
Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 38 - 24 (42 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Oregon -16.5   (SP+ ORE -13)

Projected Score: LIB: 25 - ORE: 42 (67)
ORE Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
LIB Travel: 2317 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 44 - 17 (49 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Liberty's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Liberty vs Bowling Green-8.548.5W 34 - 24OY
Sat 9/9 Liberty vs New Mexico State-9.054.5W 33 - 17UY
Sat 9/16 Liberty at Buffalo-2.554.0W 55 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Liberty at Florida International-10.054.0W 38 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/5 Liberty vs Sam Houston-21.046.5W 21 - 16UN
Tue 10/10 Liberty at Jacksonville State-7.059.5W 31 - 13UY
Tue 10/17 Liberty vs Middle Tennessee-16.056.5W 42 - 35ON
Tue 10/24 Liberty at Western Kentucky-4.061.5W 42 - 29OY
Sat 11/4 Liberty vs Louisiana Tech-16.558.0W 56 - 30OY
Sat 11/11 Liberty vs Old Dominion-13.558.5W 38 - 10UY
Sat 11/18 Liberty vs Massachusetts-26.564.5W 49 - 25ON
Sat 11/25 Liberty at UTEP-18.054.5W 42 - 28ON
Fri 12/1 Liberty vs New Mexico State-10.554.0W 49 - 35OY
Mon 1/1 Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule
Oregon's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Oregon vs Portland State-48.064.5W 81 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Oregon at Texas Tech-4.570.0W 38 - 30UY
Sat 9/16 Oregon vs Hawai'i-38.567.5W 55 - 10UY
Sat 9/23 Oregon vs Colorado-21.070.0W 42 - 6UY
Sat 9/30 Oregon at Stanford-27.059.5W 42 - 6UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Oregon at Washington+3.067.0L 33 - 36OY
Sat 10/21 Oregon vs Washington State-19.560.5W 38 - 24ON
Sat 10/28 Oregon at Utah-6.547.5W 35 - 6UY
Sat 11/4 Oregon vs California-26.561.5W 63 - 19OY
Sat 11/11 Oregon vs USC-12.578.5W 36 - 27UN
Sat 11/18 Oregon at Arizona State-21.552.5W 49 - 13OY
Fri 11/24 Oregon vs Oregon State-14.061.5W 31 - 7UY
Fri 12/1 Oregon vs Washington-9.067.0L 31 - 34UN
Mon 1/1 Oregon vs Liberty-18.571.5W 45 - 6UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#3 (.43)54% (3)38.356% (3)3.77 (2)28151% (8)1974.54 (20)#59 (.17)42% (73)24.347% (111)40% (49)3.63 (54)591.11.7
ORE#2 (.49)57% (1)44.257% (2)3.69 (4)17157% (1)3185.11 (1)#19 (.1)38% (30)16.539% (35)39% (27)3.33 (24)59.10.51.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LIB#24 (.26)50% (7)54% (2)3.56 (7)23843% (60)1614.21 (43)#24 (.1)39% (39)39% (30)40% (66)3.68 (58)64.41.31.3
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Offense1438.341.654.2%4.541.1244782811976.168%32%56%51%7%.43
ORE Defense1416.514.338.4%3.331.1 - - - - - 39%59%39%39%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LIB Defense1424.320.642.3%3.631.7 - - - - - 43%55%47%40%18%.17
ORE Offense1444.249.456.9%5.110.5244901713185.944%56%57%57%9%.49

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Liberty1431:1823.650%55%5.9591.11.74.91.7230.4
Oregon1428:3124.451%74%6.559.10.51.14.82.4129.5
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Offense1468% (4)56% (3)45.9281.36.139 (2).35 (3)3.77 (2)85% (4)5% (1)0.98 (81)
ORE Defense1439% (2)39% (35) - - - - .08 (32)3.08 (60)55% (6)9% (96)0.97 (54)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LIB Defense1443% (9)47% (111) - - - - .19 (94)3.14 (77)75% (86)10% (84)0.97 (49)
ORE Offense1444% (107)57% (2)29.1171.45.932 (10).37 (2)3.69 (4)78% (32)6% (3)1.05 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Offense1432% (130)51% (8)11.619.9196.99.916.931 (14)5 (6).65 (2)1.9 (9)23% (2)38% (13).59 (8)2% (2)2.3 (18)
ORE Defense1459% (132)39% (27) - - - - - - 11 (53).16 (16)1.5 (45)32% (70)30% (60).33 (78)8% (13)2 (45)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LIB Defense1455% (125)40% (49) - - - - - - 21 (1).23 (48)1.6 (84)31% (77)29% (48).17 (9)9% (6)2.1 (94)
ORE Offense1456% (22)57% (1)2633.7318.39.412.244 (1)5 (6).59 (3)1.5 (112)24% (3)43% (3).73 (2)3% (4)2 (70)

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67   Oregon: 25.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8   Oregon: 25.0




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.65 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Liberty Scoring
Offense: 38.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 41.6
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.6

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 42
Liberty 25


Total Points: 67

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 44.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 49.4
Defense: 16.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202301/01Oregon45Liberty6OregonOregon -18.5Oregon71.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon110 Overs
Liberty001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

Liberty Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Fiesta Bowl Liberty vs Oregon+18.571.5L 6 - 45
2022Raton Bowl Liberty vs Toledo+4.051.5L 19 - 21
2021Lendingtree Bowl Liberty vs Eastern Michigan-9.558.5W 56 - 20
2020Cure Bowl Liberty vs Coastal Carolina+6.560.0W 37 - 34
2019Cure Bowl Liberty vs Georgia Southern+5.059.0W 23 - 16
Oregon Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Fiesta Bowl Oregon vs Liberty-18.571.5W 45 - 6
2022Holiday Bowl Oregon vs North Carolina-13.076.0W 28 - 27
2021Alamo Bowl Oregon vs Oklahoma+7.064.0L 32 - 47
2020Fiesta Bowl Oregon vs Iowa State+4.557.5L 17 - 34
2019Rose Bowl Oregon vs Wisconsin+3.053.0W 28 - 27
2018N/A Oregon vs Michigan State+1.047.0W 7 - 6
2017Vegas Bowl Oregon vs Boise State-7.063.0L 28 - 38
  
(#30) Liberty Info
Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30


Liberty has played in 6 Bowls in the last 5 years (3 - 3)
Liberty has played in 6 Bowls since 2000 (3 - 3)

Liberty Highlights
Liberty is Undefeated away from Home

Liberty has Really Good Running Game (#53)
Liberty offense is efficent (#55)
Liberty has a top Offensive Line (#49)
Liberty offense is good in red zone (#98)
Liberty offense is good on 3rd downs
Liberty does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#75)

Liberty Secondary is very good (#118)
Liberty defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Liberty Deficiencies
Liberty Fumbles a Lot (#113)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatORELIB
OverallOver#4#16
OffenseOff#1#11
DefenseDef#16#42
Special TeamsST#28#33
PassingPass#1#20
RushingRush#2#4
Run BlockRBLK#25#31
Pass BlockPBLK#1#82
Route RunningWR Rt#2#19
TacklingTkl#4#32
Run DefenseR Def#24#62
Pass Rush DefPRush#39#59
Coverage DefCov#13#34

Rematch from Week 1
Oregon -18.5 (71.5)
Oregon won vs Liberty this year (45-6)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Liberty in 2023 (45-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in State Farm Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: LIB | ORE
Depth Chart: LIB | ORE
Rosters: LIB | ORE
(#2) Oregon Info
Power Rating: 25.65 #2
Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70


Oregon has played in 2 CFP Playoff Games (0 - 2)
Oregon has played in 7 Bowls in the last 5 years (4 - 3)
Oregon has played in 24 Bowls since 2000 (12 - 12)

Oregon Highlights
Oregon is Undefeated vs Spread away from Home

Oregon offense is efficent (#1)
Oregon has a top Offensive Line (#1)
Oregon offense is good in red zone (#3)
Oregon offense is good on 3rd downs
Oregon Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Oregon has a really good defense (#12)
Oregon defense is really good in red zone (#25)
Oregon has a good pass defense (#9)
Oregon Secondary is very good (#7)
Oregon has a great TO Margin (#11)

Oregon Deficiencies
Oregon Commits a Lot of Penalties (#6)


  
Liberty's OC Newland Isaac
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kaidon Salter17729061%28763269.9
Johnathan Bennett1617%6001.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)2211401166.360
Kaidon Salter1631089126.752
Billy Lucas11459765.243
Aaron Bedgood5855239.549
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
C.J. Daniels5510671019.475
Treon Sibley23467420.368
Noah Frith17323319.055
Elijah Smoot11221220.142

View Liberty's Full Roster
Liberty's DC Jack Curtis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyren Dupree1168362
Brandon Bishop583003
Joseph Carter552001
Quinton Reese502001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kendy Charles265320
CJ Bazile Jr.48113110
Christopher Boti144310
Tyren Dupree1168362
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Singleton3600012
Preston Hodge443007
Brylan Green352107

Oregon's OC Will Stein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bo Nix36447077%45084539.6
Ty Thompson243177%297419.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mar'Keise Irving1861180116.356
Jordan James107759117.137
Bo Nix5423464.344
Noah Whittington2014627.341
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Troy Franklin8113831417.184
Tez Johnson (Tr)8611821013.777
Traeshon Holden (Tr)37452612.263
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)30442414.771

View Oregon's Full Roster
Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Evan Williams (Tr)825521
Jeffrey Bassa7140121
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)705137
Steve Stephens562002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Dorlus257577
Evan Williams (Tr)825521
Popo Aumavae183330
Jordan Burch (Tr)348351
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Dorlus257577
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)705137
Nikko Reed (Tr)252107