Liberty at Oregon - 2023 Matchup Preview

Liberty Flames vs Oregon Ducks

Monday, January 1st 2024 (1:00 PM EST)
Oregon -18.5 (71.5) (-750) Open: -15.0 | 65.5
Oregon 45 - Liberty: 6 (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl)

Flames (13 - 1) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jamey Chadwell (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 27 (20 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.7 - 3.3 (#7)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Oregon -16.5 (SP+ ORE -13)
Projected Score: LIB: 23 - ORE: 39 (62)
ORE Win prob: 91% | Cover: 44%
LIB Travel: 1872 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Ducks (12 - 2) (10 - 3 - 1)
Coach Dan Lanning (13 - 3)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 12.3 - 1.7 (#2)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
LIB Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Liberty's 2023 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Liberty vs Bowling Green	-8.5W34–24	48.5	W34–24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-9.0W33–17	54.5	W33–17	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Liberty at Buffalo	-2.5W55–27	54.0	W55–27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Liberty at Florida International	-10.0W38–6	54.0	W38–6	U	Y
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/5	Liberty vs Sam Houston	-21.0W21–16	46.5	W21–16	U	N
Tue 10/10	Liberty at Jacksonville State	-7.0W31–13	59.5	W31–13	U	Y
Tue 10/17	Liberty vs Middle Tennessee	-16.0W42–35	56.5	W42–35	O	N
Tue 10/24	Liberty at Western Kentucky	-4.0W42–29	61.5	W42–29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Liberty vs Louisiana Tech	-16.5W56–30	58.0	W56–30	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Liberty vs Old Dominion	-13.5W38–10	58.5	W38–10	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Liberty vs Massachusetts	-26.5W49–25	64.5	W49–25	O	N
Sat 11/25	Liberty at UTEP	-18.0W42–28	54.5	W42–28	O	N
Fri 12/1	Liberty vs New Mexico State	-10.5W49–35	54.0	W49–35	O	Y
Mon 1/1	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5L6–45	71.5	L6–45	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Liberty's Schedule

Oregon's 2023 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Oregon vs Portland State	-48.0W81–7	64.5	W81–7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Oregon at Texas Tech	-4.5W38–30	70.0	W38–30	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Oregon vs Hawai'i	-38.5W55–10	67.5	W55–10	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Oregon vs Colorado	-21.0W42–6	70.0	W42–6	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Oregon at Stanford	-27.0W42–6	59.5	W42–6	U	Y
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/14	Oregon at Washington	+3.0L33–36	67.0	L33–36	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Oregon vs Washington State	-19.5W38–24	60.5	W38–24	O	N
Sat 10/28	Oregon at Utah	-6.5W35–6	47.5	W35–6	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Oregon vs California	-26.5W63–19	61.5	W63–19	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Oregon vs USC	-12.5W36–27	78.5	W36–27	U	N
Sat 11/18	Oregon at Arizona State	-21.5W49–13	52.5	W49–13	O	Y
Fri 11/24	Oregon vs Oregon State	-14.0W31–7	61.5	W31–7	U	Y
Fri 12/1	Oregon vs Washington	-9.0L31–34	67.0	L31–34	U	N
Mon 1/1	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5W45–6	71.5	W45–6	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB	.15	41%	25.6	46%	3.22	172	38%	217	3.61	.1	36%	26.5	38%	36%	3.57	53.5	2.1	2.2
ORE	.38	56%	36.9	58%	3.59	216	54%	285	4.4	.22	45%	17.9	45%	46%	4.15	57.2	0.9	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
LIB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Offense	13	25.6	19.7	41.4%	3.61	2.1	20	389	172	217	4.6	50%	48%	46%	38%	19%	.15
ORE Defense	13	17.9	16.8	45.3%	4.15	2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	45%	46%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
LIB Defense	13	26.5	25.7	36.2%	3.57	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	38%	36%	20%	.1
ORE Offense	13	36.9	43.1	55.9%	4.4	0.9	26	501	216	285	5.5	53%	47%	58%	54%	11%	.38

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Liberty	13	28:37	20.4	37%	48%	6.2	53.5	2.1	2.2	8.4	3.2	1	31.3
Oregon	13	31:21	26.2	46%	63%	6.8	57.2	0.9	2	3.9	1.3	1	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Offense	13	50%	46%	37.8	172.4	4.6	24	.17	3.22	68%	13%	1.05
ORE Defense	13	43%	45%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.02	68%	8%	1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
LIB Defense	13	51%	38%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.59	75%	14%	1.06
ORE Offense	13	53%	58%	39.1	215.7	5.5	34	.37	3.59	83%	6%	0.95

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Offense	13	48%	38%	17.6	30.4	216.5	7.1	12.3	21	15	.22	1.6	31%	26%	.23	6%	2.2
ORE Defense	13	56%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	16	.28	1.4	30%	37%	.48	7%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
LIB Defense	13	47%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.19	1.7	36%	27%	.26	7%	2
ORE Offense	13	47%	54%	23.7	33.2	284.8	8.6	12	30	9	.4	1.4	25%	38%	.48	4%	1.9

Liberty's Power Ratings
Liberty's Power Rating: 6.67 #30
Liberty's Offense Rating: 29.14 #3
Liberty's Defense Rating: 7.34 #42
2023 Talent Rating: 398.00 #114
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Liberty's 2023 Expected Record: 10.70 - 3.30
Liberty's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.8 #21
Liberty's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.4 #9
Liberty's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.8 #51

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 264.47
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 617.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 6.67 Oregon: 25.65

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Liberty: 11.8 Oregon: 25.0

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.65 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.84 #2
Oregon's Defense Rating: 3.60 #18
2023 Talent Rating: 1080.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 63 #12
Oregon's 2023 Expected Record: 12.30 - 1.70
Oregon's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #5
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 45.0 #1
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.3 #19

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 617.61

Liberty Scoring
Offense: 25.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.7

Liberty's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 39
Liberty 23

Projected Total Points: 62

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2023 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 9
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	01/01	Oregon	45	Liberty	6	Oregon -18.5	Oregon	71.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	1	1	0 Overs
Liberty	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Liberty Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Fiesta Bowl	Liberty vs Oregon	+18.5	71.5	L 6 - 45
2022	Raton Bowl	Liberty vs Toledo	+4.0	51.5	L 19 - 21
2021	Lendingtree Bowl	Liberty vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	58.5	W 56 - 20
2020	Cure Bowl	Liberty vs Coastal Carolina	+6.5	60.0	W 37 - 34
2019	Cure Bowl	Liberty vs Georgia Southern	+5.0	59.0	W 23 - 16

Oregon Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Liberty	-18.5	71.5	W 45 - 6
2022	Holiday Bowl	Oregon vs North Carolina	-13.0	76.0	W 28 - 27
2021	Alamo Bowl	Oregon vs Oklahoma	+7.0	64.0	L 32 - 47
2020	Fiesta Bowl	Oregon vs Iowa State	+4.5	57.5	L 17 - 34
2019	Rose Bowl	Oregon vs Wisconsin	+3.0	53.0	W 28 - 27
2018	N/A	Oregon vs Michigan State	+1.0	47.0	W 7 - 6
2017	Vegas Bowl	Oregon vs Boise State	-7.0	63.0	L 28 - 38

(#30) LIB at (#2) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	LIB	ORE
Game ControlGC	#39	#18
Momentum ControlMC	#15	#77
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#30	#2
SP+SP+	#21	#5
Perf GradeGrade	#21	#5
OffenseOff	#12	#1
DefenseDef	#50	#20
Spec TeamsST	#38	#29
TalentTal	#114	#9
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#12

Liberty Injury Report

Oregon Injury Report

Liberty on Offense


CategoryCat	LIB Off	ORE Def
Game ControlGC	#38	#16
Momentum ControlMC	#19	#106
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#12	#20
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#3	#18
SP+SP+	#9	#19
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Liberty Run Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#4	#28
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#38	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#4

Liberty Pass Game


CategoryCat	LIB Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#22	#15
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#95	#45
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Oregon on Offense


CategoryCat	ORE Off	LIB Def
Game ControlGC	#19	#43
Momentum ControlMC	#35	#24
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#1	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#2	#42
SP+SP+	#1	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Oregon Run Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	LIB Def
Run GameRun	#2	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#31	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#36

Oregon Pass Game


CategoryCat	ORE Off	LIB Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#1	#76
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving CFP Hopefuls
'23 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

LIB 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in State Farm Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Oregon -18.5 (71.5)
Oregon won vs Liberty this year (45-6)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Liberty in 2023 (45-6)

LIB's OC Newland Isaac (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kaidon Salter	177	290	61%	2876	32	6	9.9
Johnathan Bennett	1	6	17%	6	0	0	1.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Quinton Cooley (Tr)	221	1401	16	6.3	60
Kaidon Salter	163	1089	12	6.7	52
Billy Lucas	114	597	6	5.2	43
Aaron Bedgood	58	552	3	9.5	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
C.J. Daniels	55	1067	10	19.4	75
Treon Sibley	23	467	4	20.3	68
Noah Frith	17	323	3	19.0	55
Elijah Smoot	11	221	2	20.1	42

View Liberty's Full Roster

LIB's DC Jack Curtis (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2
Brandon Bishop	58	3	0	0	3
Joseph Carter	55	2	0	0	1
Quinton Reese	50	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kendy Charles	26	5	3	2	0
CJ Bazile Jr.	48	11	3	11	0
Christopher Boti	14	4	3	1	0
Tyren Dupree	116	8	3	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kobe Singleton	36	0	0	12
Preston Hodge	44	3	0	7
Brylan Green	35	2	1	7

ORE's OC Junior Adams (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bo Nix	364	470	77%	4508	45	3	9.6
Ty Thompson	24	31	77%	297	4	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mar'Keise Irving	186	1180	11	6.3	56
Jordan James	107	759	11	7.1	37
Bo Nix	54	234	6	4.3	44
Noah Whittington	20	146	2	7.3	41

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Troy Franklin	81	1383	14	17.1	84
Tez Johnson (Tr)	86	1182	10	13.7	77
Traeshon Holden (Tr)	37	452	6	12.2	63
Gary Bryant Jr. (Tr)	30	442	4	14.7	71

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Jeffrey Bassa	71	4	0	12	1
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Steve Stephens	56	2	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Evan Williams (Tr)	82	5	5	2	1
Popo Aumavae	18	3	3	3	0
Jordan Burch (Tr)	34	8	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Dorlus	25	7	5	7	7
Tysheem Johnson (Tr)	70	5	1	3	7
Nikko Reed (Tr)	25	2	1	0	7