Oklahoma State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oklahoma State logo Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oregon Ducks(#6)Oregon logo
Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -28.5 (55.5) (-10000)  Open: -28.0 | 58.5
Oregon 69 - Oklahoma State: 3

 
Cowboys (1 - 1) (0 - 2 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 15 - 38 (3 - 69 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)
ORE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon -37.5   (SP+ ORE -31)

Projected Score: OKST: 11 - ORE: 49 (60)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
OKST Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Ducks (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 54 - 10 (64 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 1.5 (#5)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
 
Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Oklahoma State vs UT Martin-26.056.5W 27 - 7UN
Sat 9/6 Oklahoma State at Oregon+28.555.5L 3 - 69ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19 Oklahoma State vs Tulsa-13.555.5
Sat 9/27 Oklahoma State vs Baylor+14.5
Sat 10/4 Oklahoma State at Arizona+16.5
Sat 10/11 Oklahoma State vs Houston+8
Sat 10/18 Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati+16
Sat 10/25 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech+31.5
Sat 11/1 Oklahoma State at Kansas+18
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Oklahoma State vs Kansas State+9.5
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State at UCF+14.5
Sat 11/29 Oklahoma State vs Iowa State+17.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-35.555.5
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-12
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.5
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-23.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-13.5
Sat 11/15 Oregon vs Minnesota-19.5
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-7
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-11

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#96 (.13)36% (123)1533% (124)2.57 (104)13639% (95)1503.75 (82)#131 (.43)46% (111)3849% (116)43% (94)4.67 (112)5010.5
ORE#1 (.78)64% (1)5466% (2)4.12 (1)24762% (4)2566.27 (3)#23 (-.02)30% (12)1033% (25)26% (9)2.29 (25)21.30.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
OKST#52 (.21)43% (63)43% (86)2.79 (107)11444% (47)2654.22 (42)#131 (.34)46% (109)47% (107)44% (108)3.93 (82)43.21.81.3
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Offense215335.5%3.751152851361503.257%43%33%39%18%.13
ORE Defense310830%2.291.3 - - - - - 55%45%33%26%20%-.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
OKST Defense2386946.2%4.670.5 - - - - - 58%41%49%43%13%.43
ORE Offense3546464%6.270.325503247256755%45%66%62%3%.78

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oklahoma State231:2014.541%100%6.55010.562023.5
Oregon328:5024.764%75%321.30.31.352.3236.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Offense257% (30)33% (124)42135.53.22 (109)- (107)2.57 (104)83% (28)10% (83)0.78 (116)
ORE Defense355% (105)33% (25) - - - - -.08 (27)2.74 (65)43% (10)10% (67)0.73 (21)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
OKST Defense258% (121)49% (116) - - - - .44 (134)3.52 (130)100% (127)10% (65)1.33 (126)
ORE Offense355% (46)66% (2)35.3247713 (2).82 (1)4.12 (1)100% (1)3% (1)1.39 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Offense243% (103)39% (95)12.524.5149.56.1121 (123)2 (60).3 (67)1.6 (49)41% (133)30% (85).41 (52)8% (125)2 (69)
ORE Defense345% (35)26% (9) - - - - - - 4 (12).06 (29)1.5 (72)35% (46)14% (10).07 (28)10% (7)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
OKST Defense241% (16)43% (94) - - - - - - 1 (87).51 (122)1.8 (118)32% (82)21% (28).13 (39)3% (128)1.5 (22)
ORE Offense345% (88)62% (4)18.725.3256.310.113.77 (23)1 (23).73 (6)1.4 (96)20% (6)40% (27).38 (57)0% (1)1 (134)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -5.87 #95
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 12.49 #71
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 18.36 #111
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #82
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #97

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -5.87   Oregon: 32.63

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -3.8   Oregon: 27.1




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 32.63 #1
Oregon's Offense Rating: 34.47 #1
Oregon's Defense Rating: -10.68 #3
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1 #2
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.4 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #8

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 15 PPG
Offense on Road: 3
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 69

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 49
Oklahoma State 11


Total Points: 60

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 54 PPG
Offense at Home: 64
Defense: 10 PPG
Defense at Home: 8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/06Oregon69Oklahoma State3OregonOregon -28.5Oregon55.5Over
200812/30Oregon42Oklahoma State31Oregon
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon211 Overs
Oklahoma State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#95) Oklahoma State Info
Power Rating: -5.87 #95
Offense Rating: 12.49 #71
Defense Rating: 18.36 #111
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.8 #82
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.0 #97
Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 36%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.75 PPO
Awful Run Success 33%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.67 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

Oklahoma State has won 1 straight
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Oklahoma State Notes
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
(7/30) 65 total new players, 35 added after spring
(5/23) Def added 18 portals, 9 DL, 3 LB, 6 DB. Improve?
(5/23) Need to see Off because it looks bad on paper
(5/23) RB bad LY. Can Brock (Ga St)/Hicks (OU) help?
(5/23) WR rebuild. Took 5 portals. Some talent
(5/23) OL rebuild 0/5 back. 7 not so great portals
(5/11) OL exp ranked #60 & 94% of that is from portals
(3/22) QBs Hejny (TCU)? came w/ OC Meacham

Oklahoma State Highlights
Oklahoma State has a great TO Margin (#28)
Oklahoma State commits very few Penalties (#30)

Oklahoma State Deficiencies
Oklahoma State has a really bad Offense
Oklahoma State Can Not Run the Ball (#125)
Oklahoma State offense is really bad (#123)
Oklahoma State run game is really bad (#124)
Oklahoma State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Oklahoma State has a bad defense (#111)
Oklahoma State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#125)
Oklahoma State Does Not Stuff Runs (#124)
Oklahoma State has a bad defensive line (#130)
Oklahoma State has a bad red zone defense (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatOREOKST
OverallOver#12#80
OffenseOff#10#94
DefenseDef#33#76
Special TeamsST#15#53
PassingPass#25#96
RushingRush#3#79
Run BlockRBLK#50#66
Pass BlockPBLK#2#60
Route RunningWR Rt#17#97
TacklingTkl#6#27
Run DefenseR Def#68#51
Pass Rush DefPRush#58#70
Coverage DefCov#9#99

Rematch from Week 2
Oregon -28.5 (55.5)
Oregon won vs Oklahoma State this year (69-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: OKST | ORE
Depth Chart: OKST | ORE
Rosters: OKST | ORE
(#1) Oregon Info
Power Rating: 32.63 #1
Offense Rating: 34.47 #1
Defense Rating: -10.68 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1 #2
Offense SP+ Rating: 41.4 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #8
Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #5
Expected Record: 10.5 - 1.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Great Offense Success Rate of 64%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 6.27 PPO
Great Run Success 66%
Great Pass Success 62%
Good OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 30%
Good in Scoring Position 2.29 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Great Pass Def Success 26%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon has won 1 straight
Oregon has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (2 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

Oregon Notes
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/7) Still great, but step back. CFP team, not natty
(4/7) Iapani Laloulu (C)/TE Sadiq top 10 via PFF
(3/28) Fr WR Moore a weapon that will play early
(3/28) S Thieneman (Pur) a huge sign, NFL talent
(3/22) TE Sadiq (SO) a weapon, ascends to #1 TY

Oregon Highlights
Oregon in Undefeated
Oregon is Undefeated at Home
Oregon is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Oregon has Really Good Running Game (#6)
Oregon offense is efficent (#1)
Oregon offense is explosive (#24)
Oregon has a top Offensive Line (#1)
Oregon offense is good in red zone (#3)
Oregon offense is good on 3rd downs
Oregon does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#2)

Oregon has a really good defense (#12)
Oregon defense does not give up big plays (#17)
Oregon defense is really good in red zone (#25)
Oregon has a good run defense (#25)
Oregon has a good pass defense (#9)
Oregon Secondary is very good (#7)
Oregon has a great TO Margin (#11)
Oregon commits very few Penalties (#6)
Oregon defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

Oregon Deficiencies


  
Oklahoma State's OC Doug Meacham
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Zane Flores203951%203025.2
Hauss Hejny (Tr)51050%96109.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kalib Hicks (Tr)3511903.414
Sesi Vailahi93213.610
Trenten Howland63105.28
Rodney Fields Jr.103003.08
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrill Davis (Tr)378026.041
Shamar Rigby (Tr)357019.041
Gavin Freeman64918.212
Christian Fitzpatrick (Tr)335011.735

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster
Oklahoma State's DC Todd Grantham
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryan McCoy (Tr)231010
Brandon Rawls192100
Jaleel Johnson83030
De'Marion Thomas (Tr)70000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)54310
Brandon Rawls192100
Bryan McCoy (Tr)231010
Iman Oates20010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sitiveni Kaufusi10001
Cam Smith00001
Aden Kelley30010

Oregon's OC Will Stein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore506478%6577110.3
Luke Moga3560%580011.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dierre Hill Jr.11161214.666
Noah Whittington14159211.459
Jayden Limar2014537.353
Jay Harris115004.516
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)11161214.642
Dakorien Moore9144116.065
Jeremiah McClellan598019.651
Kenyon Sadiq595219.026

View Oregon's Full Roster
Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher171001
Teitum Tuioti153200
Peyton Woodyard131000
Bear Alexander (Tr)121100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matayo Uiagalelei63321
Teitum Tuioti153200
Nasir Wyatt21100
Will Straton71100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ify Obidegwu70002
Daylen Austin41002
Bryce Boettcher171001