Oklahoma State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 6th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
Oregon -28.5 (55.5) (-10000) Open: -28.0 | 58.5
Oregon 69 - Oklahoma State: 3

Cowboys (1 - 11) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mike Gundy (169 - 88)
Avg Score : 14 - 33 (10 - 41 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#133)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 1)

ORE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon -41 (SP+ ORE -41)
Projected Score: OKST: 7 - ORE: 48 (55)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 52%
OKST Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Ducks (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)

Matchup
Schedules
OKST Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Oklahoma State vs UT Martin	-26.0	56.5	W 27 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/6	Oklahoma State at Oregon	+28.5	55.5	L 3 - 69	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 9/19	Oklahoma State vs Tulsa	-10.5	54.5	L 12 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/27	Oklahoma State vs Baylor	+21.0	58.5	L 27 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/4	Oklahoma State at Arizona	+21.5	56.5	L 13 - 41	U	N
Sat 10/11	Oklahoma State vs Houston	+14.5	47.5	L 17 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/18	Oklahoma State vs Cincinnati	+23.5	57.5	L 17 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/25	Oklahoma State at Texas Tech	+37.5	56.5	L 0 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/1	Oklahoma State at Kansas	+24.5	54.5	L 21 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	Oklahoma State vs Kansas State	+19.5	50.5	L 6 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Oklahoma State at UCF	+13.5	47.5	L 14 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/29	Oklahoma State vs Iowa State	+13.5	47.5	L 13 - 20	U	Y

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oklahoma State's Schedule

Oregon's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon vs Montana State	-28.0	56.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Oregon vs Oklahoma State	-28.5	55.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Oregon at Northwestern	-25.5	50.5	W 34 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon vs Oregon State	-33.5	58.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Oregon at Penn State	+4.5	52.5	W 30 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Oregon vs Indiana	-7.0	51.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon at Rutgers	-17.5	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Oregon vs Wisconsin	-31.5	44.5	W 21 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Oregon at Iowa	-4.5	41.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Fri 11/14	Oregon vs Minnesota	-26.5	45.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Oregon vs USC	-10.5	59.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Oregon at Washington	-6.5	51.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Oregon vs James Madison	-22.5	47.5	W 51 - 34	O	N
Thu 1/1	Oregon vs Texas Tech	+1.5	50.5	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Oregon vs Indiana	+3.0	50.5	L 22 - 56	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST	#52 (.21)	43% (63)	14.2	43% (86)	2.79 (107)	114	44% (47)	265	4.22 (42)	#131 (.34)	46% (109)	33.3	47% (107)	44% (108)	3.93 (82)	43.2	1.8	1.3
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	36.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	17.9	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Offense	12	14.2	10.2	43.1%	4.22	1.8	20	379	114	265	3.9	42%	58%	43%	44%	15%	.21
ORE Defense	14	17.9	16.8	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKST Defense	12	33.3	41.4	45.6%	3.93	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	44%	15%	.34
ORE Offense	14	36.9	43.1	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma State	12	27:03	20.4	35%	65%	5	43.2	1.8	1.3	5.5	2.1	1	27.1
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Offense	12	42% (117)	43% (86)	29.4	114.2	3.9	18 (78)	.04 (109)	2.79 (107)	74% (61)	7% (19)	0.87 (119)
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKST Defense	12	50% (65)	47% (107)	-	-	-	-	.31 (133)	3.43 (126)	73% (68)	8% (112)	1.25 (133)
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Offense	12	58% (17)	44% (47)	22.3	37.5	264.7	7.1	11.9	22 (46)	17 (127)	.34 (30)	1.6 (67)	31% (66)	31% (82)	.32 (77)	7% (109)	1.9 (99)
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKST Defense	12	50% (73)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.37 (123)	1.8 (124)	32% (56)	36% (119)	.46 (120)	6% (53)	2.1 (88)
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)

Oklahoma State's Power Ratings
Oklahoma State's Power Rating: -7.42 #89
Oklahoma State's Offense Rating: 7.49 #106
Oklahoma State's Defense Rating: 14.91 #77
2025 Talent Rating: 872.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Oklahoma State's 2025 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Oklahoma State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.1 #121
Oklahoma State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.2 #131
Oklahoma State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.6 #100

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -7.42 Oregon: 29.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma State: -15.1 Oregon: 25.9

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 29.77 #4
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.92 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: -1.84 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9 #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7 #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Oklahoma State Scoring
Offense: 14.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 10.2
Defense: 33.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 41.4

Oklahoma State's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 48
Oklahoma State 7

Projected Total Points: 55

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Oregon	69	Oklahoma State	3	Oregon -28.5	Oregon	55.5	Over
2008	12/30	Oregon	42	Oklahoma State	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	2	1	1 Overs
Oklahoma State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#89) OKST at (#4) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKST	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#89	#4
SP+SP+	#121	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#131	#4
OffenseOff	#133	#4
DefenseDef	#118	#7
Spec TeamsST	#125	#14
TalentTal	#32	#3
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#5

Oklahoma State Notes(12/13) Hired DC Skyler Cassity from N Tex w/ Morris
(11/25) Hired N Tex HC Eric Morris, will join after season
(10/26) Starting OT Grant Seagren entered portal
(10/22) OL Noah McKinney left for the portal, starting OG
(10/10) Sam Jackson now QB1, was WR. Prev Cal QB
(9/23) HC Gundy fired. What next? OSU invest level?
(9/23) Gundy firing a mess, staff not notified, bad juju
(9/19) Physically dominated by Tulsa. Bottom P5 team
(9/19) Have lost 11 straight games to FBS teams
(8/29) Top portal DE Kyran Duhon DNP vs UT Martin
(8/28) QB1 Henjy hurt vs UT Martin, Z Flores is QB2
(8/26) QB1 Hauss Hejny (TCU) start, Flores will play
Oklahoma State Injury Report

Oregon Notes(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report

Oklahoma State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#7
SuccessSuc	#63	#18
ExplosiveExp	#69	#43
PPAPPA	#52	#33
PowerPwr	#106	#4
SP+SP+	#131	#5
Pts POPPO	#42	#59
HavocHav	#45	#9

Oklahoma State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	#126	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#86	#64
Run ExplRExp	#119	#63
PPAExp	#109	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#114	-
OL YdsOLY	#107	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#80	#117
TackleTak	-	#7

Oklahoma State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	OKST Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	#47	#2
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#50
PPAExp	#30	#12
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#37	#10
F7 HavocF7	#19	#23
DB HavocDB	#109	#5

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OKST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#118
SuccessSuc	#5	#109
ExplosiveExp	#107	#132
PPAPPA	#7	#131
PowerPwr	#4	#77
SP+SP+	#10	#100
Pts POPPO	#10	#82
HavocHav	#2	#89

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OKST Def
Run GameRun	#2	#72
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#107
Run ExplRExp	#108	#133
PPAExp	#17	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	#126
Stuff RateStuff	#10	#119
TackleTak	-	#89

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	OKST Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#124
PPAExp	#7	#123
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#2	#111
F7 HavocF7	#4	#112
DB HavocDB	#3	#53

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

OKST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Oregon -28.5 (55.5)
Oregon won vs Oklahoma State this year (69-3)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oklahoma State last year (69-3)

OKST's OC Doug Meacham (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Zane Flores	155	262	59%	1454	3	7	5.5
Sam Jackson	35	66	53%	351	1	2	5.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Fields Jr.	124	614	1	5.0	41
Trenten Howland	63	243	3	3.9	24
Sesi Vailahi	42	152	2	3.6	14
Kalib Hicks (Tr)	44	128	0	2.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Gavin Freeman	53	481	4	9.1	33
Terrill Davis (Tr)	29	373	0	12.9	41
Shamar Rigby (Tr)	25	351	1	14.0	48
Rodney Fields Jr.	28	276	1	9.9	63

View Oklahoma State's Full Roster

OKST's DC Todd Grantham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Bryan McCoy (Tr)	71	2	0	4	1
Brandon Rawls	68	5	2	0	0
Mordecai McDaniel (Tr)	39	2	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wendell Gregory (Tr)	27	12	4	7	1
Malik Charles (Tr)	28	3	3	1	0
Taje Mccoy (Tr)	21	4	2	1	1
Jacobi Oliphant Jr.	24	2	2	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kenneth Harris	33	2	1	1	5
Parker Robertson	77	9	1	1	5
Cam Smith	34	1	0	1	4

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	296	412	72%	3565	30	10	8.7
Brock Thomas	12	16	75%	130	1	0	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Whittington	129	829	6	6.4	68
Jordon Davison	112	667	15	6.0	67
Dierre Hill Jr.	75	656	5	8.7	71
Jayden Limar	46	262	3	5.7	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Benson (Tr)	43	719	6	16.7	64
Kenyon Sadiq	51	560	8	11.0	30
Jeremiah McClellan	38	557	3	14.7	51
Jamari Johnson (Tr)	32	510	3	15.9	56

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	132	6	1	5	5
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)	92	4	1	1	5
Aaron Flowers	69	1	0	1	3
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5
Matayo Uiagalelei	34	10	6	7	3
Nasir Wyatt	11	4	3	1	0
Blake Purchase	32	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Finney Jr.	42	3	1	0	7
Jerry Mixon	57	4	1	4	7
A'Mauri Washington	33	5	2	5	7