Oregon State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks(#6)Oregon logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -33.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: -26.5
Oregon 41 - Oregon State: 7

 
Beavers (2 - 7) (3 - 6 - 0)
Coach Robb Akey (Int) (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
ORST 2nd straight Road Game
ORE is playing their 4th straight game
ORST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -36.5  (SP+ ORE -37)

Projected Score: ORST: 11 - ORE: 47 (58)
ORE Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
ORST Travel: 36 miles
Ducks (8 - 1) (5 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (42 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.2 - 1.8 (#11)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon State vs California-3.051.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.045.5L 27 - 36ON
Sat 9/13 Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.561.5L 7 - 45UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon State at Oregon+33.558.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 9/26 Oregon State vs Houston+11.548.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Oregon State at App State+1.553.5L 23 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.547.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.056.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Oregon State vs Washington State+3.547.5W 10 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.052.5
Sat 11/15 Oregon State at Tulsa+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Oregon State at Washington State+7

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-9.5
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#105 (.11)44% (56)19.145% (53)2.69 (89)13743% (61)2153.52 (96)#113 (.22)39% (47)29.942% (67)38% (29)3.46 (46)401.60.8
ORE#2 (.41)49% (13)38.752% (7)3.43 (10)21147% (27)2194.51 (28)#17 (.03)37% (22)13.839% (40)35% (14)3.24 (28)36.30.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)47% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)50% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense919.112.344.1%3.521.6203521372154.147%52%45%43%16%.11
ORE Defense913.81237.1%3.241.2 - - - - - 54%45%39%35%19%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense929.937.739.5%3.460.8 - - - - - 48%51%42%38%16%.22
ORE Offense938.74249.4%4.510.7204302112196.352%48%52%47%9%.41

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State931:2320.336%54%5.2401.60.851.6028.9
Oregon927:2620.450%67%4.236.30.71.24.11.6332.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense947% (94)45% (53)33.7136.74.113 (60).03 (107)2.69 (89)76% (46)9% (54)0.77 (131)
ORE Defense954% (111)39% (40) - - - - .1 (83)2.68 (63)62% (23)9% (85)1.07 (114)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense948% (39)42% (67) - - - - .1 (84)2.29 (23)74% (85)9% (80)0.98 (77)
ORE Offense952% (54)52% (7)33.6210.76.321 (16).37 (1)3.43 (10)86% (2)6% (5)1.15 (11)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense952% (41)43% (61)20.434.7215.36.210.511 (61)9 (127).17 (103)1.3 (131)32% (75)29% (83).14 (116)7% (106)1.7 (129)
ORE Defense945% (26)35% (14) - - - - - - 9 (22).04 (8)1.4 (35)36% (15)27% (38).21 (39)10% (4)1.8 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense951% (96)38% (29) - - - - - - 7 (55).37 (120)2.1 (136)33% (46)29% (63).44 (122)7% (30)2.7 (136)
ORE Offense948% (82)47% (27)17.624.8219.48.912.520 (6)4 (34).45 (15)1.6 (34)28% (21)31% (60).44 (32)3% (6)2.1 (37)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -2.93  #83
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 5.42  #95
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 8.35  #76
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4  #104
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #107
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #94

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 748
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -2.93   Oregon: 30.095

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -9.4   Oregon: 27.1




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 30.095  #3
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.88  #8
Oregon's Defense Rating: -11.63  #3
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 10.2 - 1.8
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1  #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.9  #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.1  #3

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 19.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.7

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 47
Oregon State 11


Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 48
Oregon State 14

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 37
Oregon State 15

Total Points: 52
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 38.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 13.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 1
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Oregon41Oregon State7Oregon -33.5Oregon58.5Under
202409/14Oregon State14Oregon49Oregon -16Oregon50.0Over
202311/24Oregon31Oregon State7Oregon -14Oregon61.5Under
202211/26Oregon State38Oregon34Oregon State -1Oregon State57.0Over
202111/27Oregon38Oregon State29Oregon -7.5Oregon61.5Over
202011/27Oregon State41Oregon38Oregon -13Oregon State64.5Over
201911/30Oregon24Oregon State10Oregon -20.5Oregon State65.5Under
201811/23Oregon State15Oregon55Oregon -18Oregon71.0Under
201711/25Oregon69Oregon State10Oregon -25.5Oregon63.0Over
201611/26Oregon State34Oregon24Oregon -3Oregon State69.0Under
201511/27Oregon52Oregon State42Oregon -30Oregon State71.5Over
201411/29Oregon State19Oregon47Oregon -17.5Oregon0
201311/29Oregon36Oregon State35Oregon -21Oregon State0
201211/24Oregon State24Oregon48
201111/26Oregon49Oregon State21
201012/04Oregon State20Oregon37
200912/03Oregon37Oregon State33
200811/29Oregon State38Oregon65
200712/01Oregon31Oregon State38
200611/24Oregon State30Oregon28
200511/19Oregon56Oregon State14
200411/20Oregon State50Oregon21
200311/22Oregon34Oregon State20
200112/01Oregon17Oregon State14
200011/17Oregon State23Oregon13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon1876 Overs
Oregon State765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams18 - 77 - 65 - 32 - 3
Road Teams7 - 186 - 73 - 23 - 5

(#83) ORST at (#3) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTORE
Power RatePwr #83 #3
SP+SP+ #104 #3
Perf GradeGrade #119 #6
OffenseOff #112 #5
DefenseDef #92 #12
Spec TeamsST #135 #32
TalentTal #61 #3
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #5
Oregon State Notes
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
(6/14) OL returns 1/5. 4 portals, only 2 clear starters
(5/10) QB G Johnson is fast and will get packages
(5/10) OL is a big concern. Depth, Spring injuries
Oregon State Injury Report
Oregon Notes
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(4/7) Still great, but step back. CFP team, not natty
(4/7) Iapani Laloulu (C)/TE Sadiq top 10 via PFF
Oregon Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Perf GradePerf #112 #12
SuccessSuc #56 #22
ExplosiveExp #132 #64
PPAPPA #105 #17
PowerPwr #95 #3
SP+SP+ #107 #3
Pts POPPO #96 #28
HavocHav #79 #24
Oregon State Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Run GameRun #100 #33
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #40
Run ExplRExp #131 #114
PPAExp #107 #83
Run BlockR Blk #103 -
OL YdsOLY #89 #63
Stuff RateStuff #43 #93
TackleTak -  #10
Oregon State Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #86 #6
Pass SuccessPSuc #61 #14
Pass ExplPExl #131 #35
PPAExp #103 #8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #109 #37
F7 HavocF7 #54 #85
DB HavocDB #106 #4
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #92
SuccessSuc #13 #47
ExplosiveExp #14 #134
PPAPPA #2 #113
PowerPwr #8 #76
SP+SP+ #10 #94
Pts POPPO #28 #46
HavocHav #3 #62
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffORST Def
Run GameRun #2 #85
Run SuccessRSuc #7 #67
Run ExplRExp #11 #77
PPAExp #1 #84
Run BlockR Blk #25 -
OL YdsOLY #10 #23
Stuff RateStuff #31 #55
TackleTak -  #89
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #18 #94
Pass SuccessPSuc #27 #29
Pass ExplPExl #34 #136
PPAExp #15 #120
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #75
F7 HavocF7 #5 #80
DB HavocDB #6 #30
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 75°
Rematch from Week 4
Oregon -33.5 (58.5)
Oregon won vs Oregon State this year (41-7)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)
Oregon State beat Oregon in 2022 (38-34)

  
ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)15526559%1746986.6
Gabarri Johnson274461%171213.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson17980574.565
Cornell Hatcher Jr.4426426.042
Gabarri Johnson2310414.552
Salahadin Allah156204.116
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker52631012.137
Tastean Reddicks28379013.537
David Wells Jr.28293310.556
Bryce Caufield2014817.430

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Trent Bray (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas650024
Aiden Sullivan565140
Jaheim Patterson541013
Dexter Foster523041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jacob Schuster142202
Shamar Meikle286240
Takari Hickle263250
Jojo Johnson155280
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas650024
Trey Glasper181004
Sailasa Vadrawale271014

ORE's OC Will Stein (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore15822471%18841958.4
Brock Thomas91369%105108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington6855148.168
Jordon Davison58404107.067
Dierre Hill Jr.4340249.366
Jayden Limar4224935.953
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Dakorien Moore28443315.865
Kenyon Sadiq22311514.130
Malik Benson (Tr)20306315.344
Gary Bryant Jr.25299412.049

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher713103
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)450013
Teitum Tuioti4410521
Aaron Flowers421002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti4410521
Matayo Uiagalelei166432
A'Mauri Washington233134
Nasir Wyatt31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ify Obidegwu120005
Brandon Finney Jr.191004
A'Mauri Washington233134