Oregon State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview
Oregon State logo   Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks  Oregon logo
Saturday, September 20th 2025 (3:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -33.5 (58.5) (0)  Open: -26.5
Oregon 41 - Oregon State: 7

 
Beavers (2 - 10) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 18 - 29 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#126)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 6)
ORST 2nd straight Road Game
ORE is playing their 4th straight game
ORST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -39  (SP+ ORE -42)

Projected Score: ORST: 8 - ORE: 47 (55)
ORE Win prob: 100% | Cover: 46%
ORST Travel: 36 miles
Ducks (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Oregon State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon State vs California-3.051.5L 15 - 34UN
Sat 9/6 Oregon State vs Fresno State-1.045.5L 27 - 36ON
Sat 9/13 Oregon State at Texas Tech+24.561.5L 7 - 45UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon State at Oregon+33.558.5L 7 - 41UN
Fri 9/26 Oregon State vs Houston+11.548.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/4 Oregon State at App State+1.553.5L 23 - 27UN
Sat 10/11 Oregon State vs Wake Forest+1.547.5L 14 - 39ON
Sat 10/18 Oregon State vs Lafayette-21.056.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Oregon State vs Washington State+3.547.5W 10 - 7UY
Sat 11/8 Oregon State vs Sam Houston-21.052.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 11/15 Oregon State at Tulsa+1.550.5L 14 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/29 Oregon State at Washington State+14.042.5L 8 - 32UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26.545.5W 42 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-10.559.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6.551.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 12/20 Oregon vs James Madison-22.547.5W 51 - 34ON
Thu 1/1 Oregon vs Texas Tech+1.550.5W 23 - 0UY
Fri 1/9 Oregon vs Indiana+3.050.5L 22 - 56ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST#87 (.16)44% (59)17.647% (25)3.34 (20)18939% (100)2013.87 (75)#117 (.27)48% (125)29.450% (126)45% (112)4.35 (117)45.71.31
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)36.951% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)17.942% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Offense1217.611.843.6%3.871.3223911892014.755%45%47%39%15%.16
ORE Defense1417.916.837.7%3.681.2 - - - - - 48%51%42%34%20%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORST Defense1229.435.248%4.351 - - - - - 56%44%50%45%13%.27
ORE Offense1436.943.150.8%4.680.8224181602584.851%49%51%50%9%.33

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon State1233:0922.344%52%5.145.71.313.80.6124.9
Oregon1428:3822.149%65%5.140.50.81.25.62.7129.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Offense1255% (33)47% (25)40.3189.24.729 (18).22 (25)3.34 (20)76% (46)9% (50)0.97 (65)
ORE Defense1448% (39)42% (64) - - - - .15 (83)3.14 (89)85% (127)12% (23)0.97 (63)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORST Defense1256% (125)50% (126) - - - - .23 (120)3.39 (123)81% (114)8% (122)0.96 (55)
ORE Offense1451% (69)51% (11)33.4159.94.829 (18).24 (17)3.5 (8)81% (19)6% (4)0.89 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Offense1245% (101)39% (100)1830201.46.711.27 (130)11 (72).09 (125)1.4 (123)28% (20)31% (78).16 (123)6% (84)1.8 (124)
ORE Defense1451% (94)34% (2) - - - - - - 12 (39).09 (12)1.5 (50)37% (8)26% (15).17 (15)8% (5)1.9 (34)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORST Defense1244% (13)45% (112) - - - - - - 5 (117).31 (104)1.5 (41)27% (126)33% (102).46 (121)6% (75)2.1 (70)
ORE Offense1449% (66)50% (6)21.929.9258.18.711.828 (15)6 (10).44 (7)1.5 (83)27% (9)40% (2).59 (3)3% (3)2.1 (32)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -2.06  #73
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 8.61  #96
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 10.67  #49
2025 Talent Rating: 772.00  #61
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Oregon State's 2025 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Oregon State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.9  #126
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #125
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8  #96

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 650.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -2.06   Oregon: 29.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -15.9   Oregon: 25.9




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 29.77  #4
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.92  #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: -1.84  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7  #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.8
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.2

Oregon State's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 47
Oregon State 8


Projected Total Points: 55
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Oregon41Oregon State7Oregon -33.5Oregon58.5Under
202409/14Oregon State14Oregon49Oregon -16Oregon50.0Over
202311/24Oregon31Oregon State7Oregon -14Oregon61.5Under
202211/26Oregon State38Oregon34Oregon State -1Oregon State57.0Over
202111/27Oregon38Oregon State29Oregon -7.5Oregon61.5Over
202011/27Oregon State41Oregon38Oregon -13Oregon State64.5Over
201911/30Oregon24Oregon State10Oregon -20.5Oregon State65.5Under
201811/23Oregon State15Oregon55Oregon -18Oregon71.0Under
201711/25Oregon69Oregon State10Oregon -25.5Oregon63.0Over
201611/26Oregon State34Oregon24Oregon -3Oregon State69.0Under
201511/27Oregon52Oregon State42Oregon -30Oregon State71.5Over
201411/29Oregon State19Oregon47Oregon -17.5Oregon0
201311/29Oregon36Oregon State35Oregon -21Oregon State0
201211/24Oregon State24Oregon48
201111/26Oregon49Oregon State21
201012/04Oregon State20Oregon37
200912/03Oregon37Oregon State33
200811/29Oregon State38Oregon65
200712/01Oregon31Oregon State38
200611/24Oregon State30Oregon28
200511/19Oregon56Oregon State14
200411/20Oregon State50Oregon21
200311/22Oregon34Oregon State20
200112/01Oregon17Oregon State14
200011/17Oregon State23Oregon13
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon1876 Overs
Oregon State765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams18 - 77 - 65 - 32 - 3
Road Teams7 - 186 - 73 - 23 - 5

(#73) ORST at (#4) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatORSTORE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #73 #4
SP+SP+ #126 #4
Perf GradeGrade #124 #4
OffenseOff #118 #4
DefenseDef #106 #7
Spec TeamsST #136 #14
TalentTal #61 #3
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #5
Oregon State Notes
(11/28) Hired Bama Co-OC JaMarcus Shepard as HC
(11/10) Interim HC Robb Akey fired? That's new
(11/10) OC Ryan Gunderson now interim HC
(10/19) QB Murphy benched vs FCS Laf. Were losing at half
(10/12) HC Bray fired after 0-7 start
(10/7) 2 heart breaking L's, Off is improving, WR Walker great
(8/31) Murphy meh, Run Off awful, Pass Def torched
(7/31) RB Hankerson a great back, have depth
(7/31) Bray 1st yr finished 1-6. Will DC this year
(7/31) Schedule front loaded but lots of rebuild opps
(7/31) OC Gunderson great QB coach, 1st time OC
(7/31) DL lacks exp, will struggle up front both lines
Oregon State Injury Report
Oregon Notes
(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report
Oregon State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #118 #7
SuccessSuc #59 #18
ExplosiveExp #124 #43
PPAPPA #87 #33
PowerPwr #96 #4
SP+SP+ #125 #5
Pts POPPO #75 #59
HavocHav #56 #9
Oregon State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Run GameRun #121 #29
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #64
Run ExplRExp #65 #63
PPAExp #25 #83
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #20 #89
Stuff RateStuff #11 #117
TackleTak -  #7
Oregon State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
ORST OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #118 #5
Pass SuccessPSuc #100 #2
Pass ExplPExl #123 #50
PPAExp #125 #12
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #102 #10
F7 HavocF7 #50 #23
DB HavocDB #84 #5
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #4 #106
SuccessSuc #5 #125
ExplosiveExp #107 #31
PPAPPA #7 #117
PowerPwr #4 #49
SP+SP+ #10 #96
Pts POPPO #10 #117
HavocHav #2 #115
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffORST Def
Run GameRun #2 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #11 #126
Run ExplRExp #108 #55
PPAExp #17 #120
Run BlockR Blk #23 -
OL YdsOLY #8 #123
Stuff RateStuff #10 #108
TackleTak -  #128
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffORST Def
Pass GamePass #2 #101
Pass SuccessPSuc #6 #112
Pass ExplPExl #83 #41
PPAExp #7 #104
Pass Block/RushP Blk #2 #84
F7 HavocF7 #4 #122
DB HavocDB #3 #75
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
Oregon -33.5 (58.5)
Oregon won vs Oregon State this year (41-7)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Oregon State last year (41-7)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2024 (49-14)
Oregon beat Oregon State in 2023 (31-7)

  
ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)16027658%1802986.5
Gabarri Johnson6210062%501235.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Anthony Hankerson247108894.465
Cornell Hatcher Jr.5229225.642
Gabarri Johnson3411913.552
Salahadin Allah197103.716
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trent Walker68823212.143
David Wells Jr.44466410.656
Tastean Reddicks30391013.037
Bryce Caufield2921917.630

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Skyler Thomas780024
Aiden Sullivan727151
Jaheim Patterson671014
Dexter Foster523041
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jojo Johnson187380
Jacob Schuster142202
Takari Hickle385250
Shamar Meikle286240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalil Tucker251015
Sailasa Vadrawale311015
Trey Glasper232005

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore29641272%356530108.7
Brock Thomas121675%130108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington12982966.468
Jordon Davison112667156.067
Dierre Hill Jr.7565658.771
Jayden Limar4626235.753
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)43719616.764
Kenyon Sadiq51560811.030
Jeremiah McClellan38557314.751
Jamari Johnson (Tr)32510315.956

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher1326155
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)924115
Aaron Flowers691013
Teitum Tuioti68161075
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti68161075
Matayo Uiagalelei3410673
Nasir Wyatt114310
Blake Purchase325251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Finney Jr.423107
Jerry Mixon574147
A'Mauri Washington335257