Montana State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, August 30th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -28.0 (56.5) (0) Open: -26.5 | 55.5
Oregon 59 - Montana State: 13

Bobcats (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 13 - 59 (13 - 59 on Road)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Oregon -30 (SP+ ORE -26)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%

Ducks (13 - 2) (9 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (43 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.9 - 1.1 (#7)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTST Players
ORE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Montana State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Montana State at Oregon	+28.0	56.5	L 13 - 59	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Montana State's Schedule

Oregon's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Oregon vs Montana State	-28.0	56.5	W 59 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/6	Oregon vs Oklahoma State	-28.5	55.5	W 69 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/13	Oregon at Northwestern	-25.5	50.5	W 34 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/20	Oregon vs Oregon State	-33.5	58.5	W 41 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/27	Oregon at Penn State	+4.5	52.5	W 30 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11	Oregon vs Indiana	-7.0	51.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/18	Oregon at Rutgers	-17.5	62.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 10/25	Oregon vs Wisconsin	-31.5	44.5	W 21 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8	Oregon at Iowa	-4.5	41.5	W 18 - 16	U	N
Fri 11/14	Oregon vs Minnesota	-26.5	45.5	W 42 - 13	O	Y
Sat 11/22	Oregon vs USC	-10.5	59.5	W 42 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Oregon at Washington	-6.5	51.5	W 26 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/20	Oregon vs James Madison	-22.5	47.5	W 51 - 34	O	N
Thu 1/1	Oregon vs Texas Tech	+1.5	50.5	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Fri 1/9	Oregon vs Indiana	+3.0	50.5	L 22 - 56	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTST		0%	13	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	59	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE	#7 (.33)	51% (5)	36.9	51% (11)	3.5 (8)	160	50% (6)	258	4.68 (10)	#33 (.11)	38% (18)	17.9	42% (64)	34% (2)	3.68 (59)	40.5	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ORE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTST Offense	1	13	13	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
ORE Defense	14	17.9	16.8	37.7%	3.68	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	42%	34%	20%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTST Defense	1	59	59	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
ORE Offense	14	36.9	43.1	50.8%	4.68	0.8	22	418	160	258	4.8	51%	49%	51%	50%	9%	.33

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Montana State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Oregon	14	28:38	22.1	49%	65%	5.1	40.5	0.8	1.2	5.6	2.7	1	29.3

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
ORE Defense	14	48% (39)	42% (64)	-	-	-	-	.15 (83)	3.14 (89)	85% (127)	12% (23)	0.97 (63)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
ORE Offense	14	51% (69)	51% (11)	33.4	159.9	4.8	29 (18)	.24 (17)	3.5 (8)	81% (19)	6% (4)	0.89 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTST Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
ORE Defense	14	51% (94)	34% (2)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.09 (12)	1.5 (50)	37% (8)	26% (15)	.17 (15)	8% (5)	1.9 (34)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTST Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
ORE Offense	14	49% (66)	50% (6)	21.9	29.9	258.1	8.7	11.8	28 (15)	6 (10)	.44 (7)	1.5 (83)	27% (9)	40% (2)	.59 (3)	3% (3)	2.1 (32)

Montana State's Power Ratings
Montana State's Power Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Montana State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Montana State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Montana State: Oregon: 29.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Montana State: Oregon: 25.9

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 29.77 #4
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.92 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: -1.84 #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00 #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67 #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.9 - 1.1
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.9 #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.7 #10
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 13.5 #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Montana State Scoring
Offense: 13 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 59 PPG
Defense on Road: 59

Montana State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon 45
Montana State 15

Projected Total Points: 61

Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.1
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.8

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	08/30	Oregon	59	Montana State	13	Oregon -28.0	Oregon	56.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon	1	1	1 Overs
Montana State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#) MTST at (#4) ORE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTST	ORE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#4
SP+SP+	NR	#4
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#4
OffenseOff	NR	#4
DefenseDef	NR	#7
Spec TeamsST	NR	#14
TalentTal	NR	#3
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#5

Montana State Injury Report

Oregon Notes(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report

Montana State on Offense


CategoryCat	MTST Off	ORE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#7
SuccessSuc	NR	#18
ExplosiveExp	NR	#43
PPAPPA	NR	#33
PowerPwr	NR	#4
SP+SP+	NR	#5
Pts POPPO	NR	#59
HavocHav	NR	#9

Montana State Run Game


CategoryCat	MTST Off	ORE Def
Run GameRun	NR	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#64
Run ExplRExp	NR	#63
PPAExp	NR	#83
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#89
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#117
TackleTak	-	#7

Montana State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MTST Off	ORE Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#5
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#2
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#50
PPAExp	NR	#12
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#10
F7 HavocF7	NR	#23
DB HavocDB	NR	#5

Oregon on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MTST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	NR
SuccessSuc	#5	NR
ExplosiveExp	#107	NR
PPAPPA	#7	NR
PowerPwr	#4	NR
SP+SP+	#10	NR
Pts POPPO	#10	NR
HavocHav	#2	NR

Oregon Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MTST Def
Run GameRun	#2	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	NR
Run ExplRExp	#108	NR
PPAExp	#17	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#23	-
OL YdsOLY	#8	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#10	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Oregon Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat	ORE Off	MTST Def
Pass GamePass	#2	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#83	NR
PPAExp	#7	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#2	NR
F7 HavocF7	#4	NR
DB HavocDB	#3	NR

Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MTST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Oregon -28.0 (56.5)
Oregon won vs Montana State this year (59-13)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Montana State last year (59-13)

MTST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Justin Lamson (Tr)	255	356	72%	3172	26	3	8.9
Patrick Duchien	9	13	69%	86	1	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Julius Davis	170	1123	8	6.6	64
Adam Jones	173	1093	15	6.3	54
Justin Lamson (Tr)	176	734	16	4.2	48
Colson Coon	31	248	1	8.0	54

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taco Dowler	77	1025	7	13.3	87
Dane Steel	39	501	3	12.8	42
Jabez Woods	24	378	2	15.8	79
Chris Long (Tr)	24	338	1	14.1	33

View Montana State's Full Roster

MTST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Cole Taylor	37	1	2	0
Bryce Grebe	23	0	0	0
Bryant Meredith	20	1	0	0
Colter Petre	20	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Kenneth Eiden IV	18	5	3	2
Zac Crews	9	3	3	1
Seth Brock	6	1	1	0
Tayden Gray	19	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Carson Williams	13	0	0	0	3
Seth Johnson	7	0	0	1	2
Takhari Carr	11	1	1	0	2

ORE's OC Will Stein (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Dante Moore	296	412	72%	3565	30	10	8.7
Brock Thomas	12	16	75%	130	1	0	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Noah Whittington	129	829	6	6.4	68
Jordon Davison	112	667	15	6.0	67
Dierre Hill Jr.	75	656	5	8.7	71
Jayden Limar	46	262	3	5.7	53

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Benson (Tr)	43	719	6	16.7	64
Kenyon Sadiq	51	560	8	11.0	30
Jeremiah McClellan	38	557	3	14.7	51
Jamari Johnson (Tr)	32	510	3	15.9	56

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bryce Boettcher	132	6	1	5	5
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)	92	4	1	1	5
Aaron Flowers	69	1	0	1	3
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Teitum Tuioti	68	16	10	7	5
Matayo Uiagalelei	34	10	6	7	3
Nasir Wyatt	11	4	3	1	0
Blake Purchase	32	5	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Finney Jr.	42	3	1	0	7
Jerry Mixon	57	4	1	4	7
A'Mauri Washington	33	5	2	5	7