Montana State at Oregon - 2025 Matchup Preview
Montana State logo Montana State Bobcats at Oregon Ducks(#5)Oregon logo
Saturday, August 30th 2025 (4:00 PM EDT)
Oregon -28.0 (56.5) (0)  Open: -26.5 | 55.5
Oregon 59 - Montana State: 13

 
Bobcats (0 - 1) (0 - 1 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 13 - 59 (13 - 59 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Oregon -30  (SP+ ORE -27)
ORE Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
Ducks (11 - 1) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (35 - 5)
Avg Score : 38 - 15 (42 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 1 (#6)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 7) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Montana State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Montana State at Oregon+28.056.5L 13 - 59ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Montana State's Schedule
Oregon's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Oregon vs Montana State-28.056.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 Oregon vs Oklahoma State-28.555.5W 69 - 3OY
Sat 9/13 Oregon at Northwestern-25.550.5W 34 - 14UN
Sat 9/20 Oregon vs Oregon State-33.558.5W 41 - 7UY
Sat 9/27 Oregon at Penn State+4.552.5W 30 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Oregon vs Indiana-7.051.5L 20 - 30UN
Sat 10/18 Oregon at Rutgers-17.562.5W 56 - 10OY
Sat 10/25 Oregon vs Wisconsin-31.544.5W 21 - 7UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/8 Oregon at Iowa-4.541.5W 18 - 16UN
Fri 11/14 Oregon vs Minnesota-26.545.5W 42 - 13OY
Sat 11/22 Oregon vs USC-10.559.5W 42 - 27OY
Sat 11/29 Oregon at Washington-6.551.5W 26 - 14UY
Sat 12/20 Oregon vs James Madison-21.050.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 7, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 7, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTST0%130%000%000%590%0%0000
ORE#3 (.38)51% (6)38.253% (3)3.3 (16)21849% (12)2474.41 (25)#7 (.02)37% (16)14.840% (41)35% (13)3.77 (76)50.60.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ORE#7 (.33)51% (5)51% (11)3.5 (8)16050% (6)2584.68 (10)#33 (.11)38% (18)42% (64)34% (2)3.68 (59)40.50.81.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTST Offense113130%00000000%0%0%0%0%
ORE Defense1214.814.336.7%3.771.4 - - - - - 50%48%40%35%18%.02
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTST Defense159590%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
ORE Offense1238.24250.7%4.410.8234652182475.852%46%53%49%9%.38

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Montana State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Oregon1230:5622.749%64%5.350.60.81.44.81.9430.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTST Offense10%0%000000%0%0
ORE Defense1250% (65)40% (41) - - - - .04 (35)2.74 (40)72% (79)9% (78)0.9 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTST Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
ORE Offense1252% (46)53% (3)37.6218.45.830 (16).32 (3)3.3 (16)80% (15)6% (5)1.04 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTST Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0
ORE Defense1248% (66)35% (13) - - - - - - 13 (22).1 (16)1.6 (82)36% (17)27% (38).17 (19)9% (7)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTST Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
ORE Offense1246% (92)49% (12)20.328246.88.812.225 (6)6 (34).46 (12)1.6 (60)26% (12)31% (61).42 (28)3% (4)2.1 (46)

Montana State's Power Ratings
Montana State's Power Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense Rating: NR
2025 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Montana State's 2025 Expected Record: -
Montana State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Montana State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Big Sky Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Montana State:    Oregon: 30.075

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Montana State:    Oregon: 27.1




Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 30.075  #3
Oregon's Offense Rating: 26.91  #8
Oregon's Defense Rating: -10.88  #4
2025 Talent Rating: 1128.00  #3
Blue Chip Ratio: 67  #5
Oregon's 2025 Expected Record: 11.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.1  #4
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.1  #13
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.4  #5

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 906.67
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Montana State Scoring
Offense: 13 PPG
Offense on Road: 13
Defense: 59 PPG
Defense on Road: 59

Montana State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Over/Under Record: 1 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 45
Montana State 15

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon 38
Montana State 21

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Oregon 50
Montana State 14

Total Points: 64
Oregon Scoring
Offense: 38.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 42
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.3

Oregon's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Oregon59Montana State13Oregon -28.0Oregon56.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Oregon111 Overs
Montana State000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#NR) MTST at (#3) ORE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSTORE
Power RatePwrNR #3
SP+SP+NR #4
Perf GradeGradeNR #6
OffenseOffNR #4
DefenseDefNR #11
Spec TeamsSTNR #17
TalentTalNR #3
Blue ChipsBC%NR #5
Oregon Notes
(12/1) OC Will Stein hired as HC of Kentucky
(11/27) Bullied USC, not as bad as it looks. Pass Def torched
(11/27) Ducks dealing w/ a lot of injuries at OL & WR
(10/11) Bullied by IU, just 267 yds, 3-14 on 3rd, 2 TOs
(9/30) RB Dierre Hill looks like the best one, great depth
(9/23) OL playing great, QB Moore looks like a big hit
(9/23) Stats off charts vs cupcakes, real season starts
(6/6) OL rebuild 1/5, 3 big portals, a top 10 OL
(6/6) Def needs replacements, DL still near top 10 unit
(6/5) WR Evan Stewart tore knee, out for '25 season
(6/5) WR rebuild w/o Stewart. Benson (FSU) must hit
(5/23) Safeties Thieneman & Lopa a top duo in CFB
Oregon Injury Report
Montana State on Offense
CategoryCat
MTST OffORE Def
Perf GradePerfNR #11
SuccessSucNR #16
ExplosiveExpNR #47
PPAPPANR #7
PowerPwrNR #4
SP+SP+NR #5
Pts POPPONR #76
HavocHavNR #24
Montana State Run Game
CategoryCat
MTST OffORE Def
Run GameRunNR #37
Run SuccessRSucNR #41
Run ExplRExpNR #39
PPAExpNR #35
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #40
Stuff RateStuffNR #109
TackleTak -  #7
Montana State Pass Game
CategoryCat
MTST OffORE Def
Pass GamePassNR #11
Pass SuccessPSucNR #13
Pass ExplPExlNR #82
PPAExpNR #16
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNR #46
F7 HavocF7NR #78
DB HavocDBNR #7
Oregon on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffMTST Def
Perf GradePerf #4NR
SuccessSuc #6NR
ExplosiveExp #45NR
PPAPPA #3NR
PowerPwr #8NR
SP+SP+ #13NR
Pts POPPO #25NR
HavocHav #3NR
Oregon Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
ORE OffMTST Def
Run GameRun #1NR
Run SuccessRSuc #3NR
Run ExplRExp #39NR
PPAExp #3NR
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #16NR
Stuff RateStuff #16NR
TackleTak - NR
Oregon Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatORE OffMTST Def
Pass GamePass #5NR
Pass SuccessPSuc #12NR
Pass ExplPExl #60NR
PPAExp #12NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1NR
F7 HavocF7 #5NR
DB HavocDB #4NR
Program Comparison
ORE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

MTST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Autzen Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Oregon -28.0 (56.5)
Oregon won vs Montana State this year (59-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MTST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Justin Lamson (Tr)20428472%24372028.6
Patrick Duchien91369%86116.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Julius Davis13494887.152
Adam Jones143802115.644
Justin Lamson (Tr)142645114.548
Colson Coon3124818.054
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Taco Dowler61751512.367
Dane Steel32373211.734
Jabez Woods20315215.879
Adam Jones2723918.927

View Montana State's Full Roster

MTST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Dowler100000
Jhase McMillan80000
Cole Taylor70000
Tayden Gray50000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Dowler100000
Talon Marsh20000
Logan Frederickson10000
Paul Brott10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caden Dowler100000
Talon Marsh20000
Logan Frederickson10000

ORE's OC Will Stein (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dante Moore22731373%27332468.7
Brock Thomas121675%130108.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11277466.968
Jordon Davison87535136.167
Dierre Hill Jr.5948148.266
Jayden Limar4224935.953
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malik Benson (Tr)31526417.064
Kenyon Sadiq40490812.330
Dakorien Moore28443315.865
Jeremiah McClellan25397215.951

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher1004123
Dillon Thieneman (Tr)642114
Teitum Tuioti5714743
Aaron Flowers531002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Teitum Tuioti5714743
Matayo Uiagalelei289563
Nasir Wyatt82210
A'Mauri Washington294255
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Finney Jr.293107
Jadon Canady (Tr)320005
A'Mauri Washington294255