SMU at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
California Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, CA  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 3.5 (#21)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)
Our Line: SMU -13   (SP+ SMU -13.5)
Projected Score: SMU: 33 - CAL: 20 (53)
SMU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
SMU Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#95)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-37
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-6.5
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+0.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-10.5
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-21.5
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+14.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-17.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+4
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-8.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+2.552.5
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-21.5
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+9.5
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-8
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+7
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina+1.5
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+10
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-1
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)36.544% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)22.139% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.140% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)22.341% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52944.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24
CAL Defense1322.32140.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
CAL Offense1325.130.941.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.52 #23
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.38 #38
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.86 #20
2025 Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.18
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.52   California: 0.355

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.1   California: -0.3




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 0.355 #78
California's Offense Rating: 10.21 #92
California's Defense Rating: 14.20 #63
2025 Talent Rating: 758.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #83
California's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 825.18
Average Power Five Talent: 856.9
Average FBS Talent: 681.31


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 33
California 20


Projected Total Points: 53
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30SMU38California6SMUSMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California000 Overs
SMU111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#23) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 13.52 #23
Offense Rating: 19.38 #38
Defense Rating: 5.86 #20
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.1 #20
Offense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #11
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2 #42
Talent Rating: 776.00 #51
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #44
Expected Record: 8.5 - 3.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position


SMU Notes
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
(5/3) WRs Hudson/Brinson top 2, Knight (JMU) slot
(5/2) S Isaiah Nwokobia rated top 10 S via PFF
(4/4) TE Maryland great weapon, top 10 PFF, hurt LY.
SMU     Ratings Matchup     California
Power #23
#78
Off #38
#92
Def #20
#63
Talent #51
#56
SP+ #20
#65
SP+ Off #11
#79
SP+ Def #42
#51

Previous Matchups
SMU beat California last year (38-6)

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | CAL
Depth Chart: SMU | CAL
Rosters: SMU | CAL
(#78) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.355 #78
Offense Rating: 10.21 #92
Defense Rating: 14.20 #63
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51
Talent Rating: 758.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #83
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


California Notes
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring
(4/17) TE Endries gone via portal post spring, big loss
(4/17) New OC Harsin a bad start, lead to portal mess
(4/4) Donors want Wilcox reporting to new GM Rivera
(3/21) QB Brown (OSU), Fr Sagapolutele huge add
(3/21) WR has pieces, talent. 5 portals past 2 yrs
(3/21) Def bad LY, replacing a lot. 6 portal adds


  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)12450524.140
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)63105.224
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Yamir Knight (Tr)52605411.668
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
TJ Harden (Tr)4036819.253
Matthew Hibner24368415.380

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith319761
Cam Robertson296330
Jahkai Lang (Tr)122200
Zakye Barker (Tr)8112211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon282006
Robert Rahimi (Tr)826115
Isaiah Nwokobia953123

California's OC Bryan Harsin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Harris193161%184015.9
Devin Brown (Tr)112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brandon High9349585.366
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)7842535.440
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)7430354.135
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)1810105.643
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Hamper (Tr)43869520.274
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)36512314.243
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Landon Morris (Tr)16251115.758

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buom Jock (Tr)973023
Harrison Taggart (Tr)693143
Cade Uluave683152
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Ryan McCulloch185381
Nathan Burrell295311
Serigne Tounkara52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4800010
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)381004