SMU at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
California Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, CA  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (26 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Our Line: SMU -13  (SP+ SMU -12)
Projected Score: SMU: 31 - CAL: 18 (49)
SMU Win prob: 80% | Cover: 46%
SMU Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (5 - 2) (3 - 4 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (26 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 5.4 (#71)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+5.550.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech-3
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+8.5
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+21
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-5
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
CAL#115 (.09)41% (101)23.738% (115)2.59 (117)8443% (69)2173.31 (112)#38 (.1)39% (40)21.942% (74)37% (33)3.67 (60)48.61.41
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense6342644.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27
CAL Defense721.92039.2%3.671 - - - - - 43%56%42%37%16%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense622.322.540.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
CAL Offense723.72640.6%3.311.417302842173.242%58%38%43%17%.09

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
California725:5716.640%46%6.348.61.4141.3027.3
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)
CAL Defense743% (11)42% (74) - - - - .13 (90)3.11 (109)84% (127)9% (100)0.96 (70)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
CAL Offense742% (118)38% (115)26.684.43.28 (87) (121)2.59 (117)56% (132)9% (72)1.05 (40)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)
CAL Defense756% (127)37% (33) - - - - - - 5 (46).09 (22)1.4 (19)34% (44)21% (9).04 (5)8% (24)1.9 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
CAL Offense758% (19)43% (69)18.930.7217.47.111.510 (60)8 (125).15 (111)1.5 (99)30% (49)34% (37).45 (36)8% (121)2 (60)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 23.81  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 23.81   California: 3.125

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 8.8   California: -3.0




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 3.125  #61
California's Offense Rating: 6.84  #89
California's Defense Rating: 2.59  #37
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 6.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.0  #78
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #92
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.5

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 31
California 18


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 29
California 21

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
SMU 26
California 24

Total Points: 50
California Scoring
Offense: 23.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 26
Defense: 21.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

California's 2025 Record
Record: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30SMU38California6SMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California000 Overs
SMU111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#22) SMU at (#61) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUCAL
Power RatePwr #22 #61
SP+SP+ #44 #78
Perf GradeGrade #35 #87
OffenseOff #35 #83
DefenseDef #21 #90
Spec TeamsST #78 #130
TalentTal #64 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #88

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential

California Notes
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #90
SuccessSuc #58 #40
ExplosiveExp #15 #39
PPAPPA #36 #38
PowerPwr #30 #37
SP+SP+ #29 #68
Pts POPPO #49 #60
HavocHav #99 #64
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #124 #135
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #74
Run ExplRExp #43 #70
PPAExp #72 #90
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #109
Stuff RateStuff #71 #132
TackleTak -  #87
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #35 #10
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #33
Pass ExplPExl #49 #19
PPAExp #23 #22
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #1 #79
F7 HavocF7 #98 #100
DB HavocDB #93 #24
California on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatCAL OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #83 #21
SuccessSuc #101 #59
ExplosiveExp #49 #58
PPAPPA #115 #18
PowerPwr #89 #20
SP+SP+ #92 #59
Pts POPPO #112 #3
HavocHav #105 #11
California Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #107 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #115 #32
Run ExplRExp #40 #28
PPAExp #121 #12
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #117 #29
Stuff RateStuff #99 #8
TackleTak -  #23
California Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatCAL OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #57 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #83
Pass ExplPExl #99 #52
PPAExp #111 #30
Pass Block/RushP Blk #56 #60
F7 HavocF7 #72 #51
DB HavocDB #121 #2
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
SMU beat California last year (38-6)

  
SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)12920862%1479977.1
Devin Brown (Tr)3650%43117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)9442344.533
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)309823.312
Brandon High239814.322
T.J. Bollers1909.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Trond Grizzell24400116.735
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)3329328.930
Mason Mini (Tr)26279310.751
Mark Hamper (Tr)13167012.835

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave527121
Luke Ferrelli453100
Isaiah Crosby241003
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)241006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)204220
Jayden Wayne (Tr)83220
Ryan McCulloch113241
Cade Uluave527121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)241006
Isaiah Crosby241003
Cameron Sidney213103