SMU at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
SMU logo (#21)SMU Mustangs at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
SMU -13.5 (53.5) (-550)  Open: -11.0 | 53.0
California 38 - SMU: 35  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: SMU -12  (SP+ SMU -17)
Projected Score: SMU: 32 - CAL: 20 (52)
SMU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
SMU Travel: 1472 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#30 (.23)43% (64)32.242% (93)2.9 (75)13444% (39)2833.89 (53)#9 (.03)40% (52)20.538% (18)43% (90)2.79 (12)70.81.52.2
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1332.229.842.6%3.891.5214171342834.443%55%42%44%17%.23
CAL Defense1327.224.342.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1320.522.240.2%2.792.2 - - - - - 43%55%38%43%19%.03
CAL Offense1325.327.240.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1326:5220.741%67%770.81.52.26.32.8327.6
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1343% (119)42% (93)30.8133.94.425 (70).11 (70)2.9 (75)79% (19)10% (74)1 (56)
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1343% (7)38% (18) - - - - -.08 (5)2.76 (46)59% (8)10% (45)0.78 (4)
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1355% (20)44% (39)23.535.4283.1812.126 (14)13 (108).4 (23)1.6 (37)32% (72)32% (47).39 (37)7% (114)2.1 (34)
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (21)1.7 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1355% (130)43% (90) - - - - - - 18 (6).19 (43)1.5 (32)32% (57)33% (109).29 (68)8% (7)1.9 (44)
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.45  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #27
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #24
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #32

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.45   California: 1.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4   California: -3.4




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.3  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 32
California 20


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 31
California 18

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
SMU 29
California 24

Total Points: 53
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29California38SMU35SMU -13.5California53.5Over
202411/30SMU38California6SMU -11.5SMU54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California111 Overs
SMU111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#29) SMU at (#63) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUCAL
Net PPPPPP #16 #93
Power RatePwr #29 #63
SP+SP+ #27 #85
Perf GradeGrade #20 #87
OffenseOff #36 #84
DefenseDef #20 #62
Spec TeamsST #60 #122
TalentTal #64 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #88
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPP #35 #101
Perf GradePerf #36 #62
SuccessSuc #64 #79
ExplosiveExp #15 #31
PPAPPA #30 #71
PowerPwr #33 #63
SP+SP+ #24 #75
Pts POPPO #53 #71
HavocHav #99 #80
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #88 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #93 #118
Run ExplRExp #56 #83
PPAExp #70 #122
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #129
Stuff RateStuff #82 #134
TackleTak -  #109
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #32 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #39 #34
Pass ExplPExl #37 #10
PPAExp #23 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #6 #77
F7 HavocF7 #74 #116
DB HavocDB #114 #21
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPP #8 #81
Perf GradePerf #84 #20
SuccessSuc #95 #52
ExplosiveExp #65 #27
PPAPPA #98 #9
PowerPwr #61 #26
SP+SP+ #87 #32
Pts POPPO #66 #12
HavocHav #91 #15
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #124 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #18
Run ExplRExp #102 #4
PPAExp #133 #5
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #46
Stuff RateStuff #58 #23
TackleTak -  #14
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #26 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #90
Pass ExplPExl #108 #32
PPAExp #78 #43
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #26
F7 HavocF7 #74 #45
DB HavocDB #105 #7
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 14
SMU 13.5 (53.5)
California won vs SMU this year (38-35)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat California last year (38-6)

  
SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018