Syracuse at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Syracuse logo Syracuse Orange at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (3:30 PM EDT)
SMU -17.5 (56.5) (-750)  Open: -16.5
SMU 31 - Syracuse: 18  (ACC)

 
Orange (3 - 9) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Fran Brown (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 35 (17 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
SMU coming off BYE
SYR is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: SMU -29  (SP+ SMU -27)

Projected Score: SYR: 13 - SMU: 42 (56)
SMU Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
SYR Travel: 1322 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.553.5L 26 - 45ON
Sat 9/6 Syracuse vs UConn-7.057.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 9/12 Syracuse vs Colgate-37.564.5W 66 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 Syracuse at Clemson+17.553.5W 34 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Syracuse vs Duke+4.059.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 10/4 Syracuse at SMU+17.556.5L 18 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+9.554.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 10/25 Syracuse at Georgia Tech+17.552.5L 16 - 41ON
Fri 10/31 Syracuse vs North Carolina-1.545.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/8 Syracuse at Miami+28.547.5L 10 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Syracuse at Notre Dame+36.551.5L 7 - 70ON
Sat 11/29 Syracuse vs Boston College+2.554.5L 12 - 34UN

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 6, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Syracuse's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SYR#28 (.25)48% (14)20.245% (57)2.88 (98)8750% (5)3354.23 (38)#107 (.23)43% (91)34.942% (58)45% (114)4.29 (112)55.31.21.1
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)32.244% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)20.539% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SYR0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SYR Offense1320.21748.1%4.231.224422873353.137%62%45%50%16%.25
SMU Defense1420.519.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SYR Defense1334.940.243.5%4.291.1 - - - - - 46%53%42%45%17%.23
SMU Offense1432.23644.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Syracuse1331:0623.850%67%6.555.31.21.152129
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SYR Offense1337% (130)45% (57)28.387.13.120 (67).07 (98)2.88 (98)78% (30)8% (30)0.81 (128)
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SYR Defense1346% (23)42% (58) - - - - .12 (71)3.05 (77)82% (119)10% (54)1.1 (115)
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SYR Offense1362% (5)50% (5)28.443.4335.27.711.829 (12)12 (85).37 (18)1.5 (89)31% (58)38% (4).34 (70)8% (117)2 (83)
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SYR Defense1353% (111)45% (114) - - - - - - 9 (76).35 (113)1.5 (26)31% (87)33% (101).43 (113)7% (44)2.1 (76)
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)

Syracuse's Power Ratings
Syracuse's Power Rating: -12.67  #112
Syracuse's Offense Rating: 1.25  #131
Syracuse's Defense Rating: 13.92  #69
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #49
Syracuse's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Syracuse's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.1  #115
Syracuse's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #115
Syracuse's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #106

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Syracuse: -12.67   SMU: 15.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Syracuse: -13.1   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.925  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Syracuse Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Syracuse's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 42
Syracuse 13


Projected Total Points: 56
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04SMU31Syracuse18SMU -17.5Syracuse56.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU100 Overs
Syracuse011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#112) SYR at (#29) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSYRSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #112 #29
SP+SP+ #115 #23
Perf GradeGrade #132 #20
OffenseOff #129 #36
DefenseDef #127 #20
Spec TeamsST #114 #60
TalentTal #43 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #49 #42
Syracuse Notes
(10/31) QB1 will be Joseph Filardi, a freshman w/ 1 snap
(10/31) QB Filardi cannot play at all. Cuse have 0 QBs
(10/24) Backup QB Collins bad, Fr Carney can't run offense
(9/21) QB1 Angeli out for season (Achilles)
(9/20) Off torched Clemson, Def played well. Huge Win
(9/20) Can't say enough about HC Brown, great job
(8/30) Def torched by Vols, Angeli Ok, run game bad
(8/18) QB1 Steve Angeli (ND) wins starting job
(5/23) Cuse were 7-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/7) OL 2/5 back, Avg LY. 2 more have exp, Petry inj
(4/17) Fr OL Washington is 6'7, 380 lbs and can move.
(4/17) Top WR Pena in portal, big loss. Some depth
Syracuse Injury Report
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
Syracuse on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SYR OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #129 #20
SuccessSuc #14 #9
ExplosiveExp #68 #69
PPAPPA #28 #5
PowerPwr #131 #26
SP+SP+ #115 #25
Pts POPPO #38 #13
HavocHav #61 #29
Syracuse Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SYR OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #115 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #57 #35
Run ExplRExp #128 #6
PPAExp #98 #2
Run BlockR Blk #100 -
OL YdsOLY #98 #25
Stuff RateStuff #68 #27
TackleTak -  #14
Syracuse Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SYR OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #128 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #5 #10
Pass ExplPExl #89 #107
PPAExp #18 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #119 #26
F7 HavocF7 #30 #36
DB HavocDB #117 #30
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffSYR Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #127
SuccessSuc #53 #91
ExplosiveExp #21 #90
PPAPPA #38 #107
PowerPwr #33 #69
SP+SP+ #22 #106
Pts POPPO #25 #112
HavocHav #46 #52
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffSYR Def
Run GameRun #88 #136
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #58
Run ExplRExp #86 #115
PPAExp #77 #71
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #77
Stuff RateStuff #57 #74
TackleTak -  #60
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffSYR Def
Pass GamePass #32 #93
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #114
Pass ExplPExl #11 #26
PPAExp #19 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #99
F7 HavocF7 #49 #54
DB HavocDB #69 #44
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

SYR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 88° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 6
SMU -17.5 (56.5)
SMU won vs Syracuse this year (31-18)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Syracuse last year (31-18)

  
SYR's OC Jeff Nixon (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rickie Collins (Tr)9718154%10426105.8
Steven Angeli9715563%13171028.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Yasin Willis12955344.341
Will Nixon10743234.028
Tylik Hill2412905.415
Rickie Collins (Tr)5412612.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Johntay Cook II (Tr)47559211.959
Darrell Gill Jr.32506515.843
Dan Villari39412010.635
Justus Ross-Simmons20312515.653

View Syracuse's Full Roster

SYR's DC Elijah Robinson (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gary Bryant III (Tr)535110
Antoine Deslauriers483102
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Jobity Jr.206501
Jamie Tremble103320
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Denis Jaquez Jr.195220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
Demetres Samuel Jr.371007
Darian Chestnut350003

SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017