SMU at Wake Forest - 2025 Matchup Preview
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SMU Mustangs at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

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Saturday, October 25th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -6.5 (53.5) (-230)  Open: -3.5 | 56.5
Wake Forest 13 - SMU: 12  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (30 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
SMU 2nd straight Road Game
WAKE coming off BYE
SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: SMU -4  (SP+ SMU -7.5)

Projected Score: SMU: 28 - WAKE: 24 (52)
SMU Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
SMU Travel: 967 miles, 1 hrs behind
Demon Deacons (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.052.5W 43 - 29OY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)32.244% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)20.539% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)28.143% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)22.148% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WAKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1432.229.844.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24
WAKE Defense1222.117.350.7%4.121.4 - - - - - 44%56%48%53%12%.27
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1420.522.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
WAKE Offense1228.128.341.9%3.21.8223721312403.648%52%43%41%16%.13

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Wake Forest1228:5121.839%64%5.145.91.81.44.91.7229
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)
WAKE Defense1244% (6)48% (110) - - - - .18 (101)3.13 (88)80% (112)8% (110)0.96 (58)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
WAKE Offense1248% (86)43% (79)36.4131.43.618 (78).05 (106)3 (79)81% (18)10% (70)0.92 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)
WAKE Defense1256% (129)53% (133) - - - - - - 11 (52).36 (116)1.3 (2)26% (130)40% (132).41 (106)4% (131)1.8 (18)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
WAKE Offense1252% (50)41% (75)20.733.6240.17.211.617 (79)13 (103).23 (83)1.5 (115)31% (63)28% (102).15 (125)7% (93)1.9 (103)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 13.45  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.45   Wake Forest: 9.215

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 13.4   Wake Forest: 5.7




Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 9.215  #48
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 11.98  #75
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 4.25  #18
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7  #52
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6  #70
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.8
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 28
Wake Forest 24


Projected Total Points: 52
Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Wake Forest13SMU12SMU -6.5Wake Forest53.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wake Forest110 Overs
SMU001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#29) SMU at (#48) WAKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUWAKE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #29 #48
SP+SP+ #23 #52
Perf GradeGrade #20 #63
OffenseOff #36 #103
DefenseDef #20 #28
Spec TeamsST #60 #11
TalentTal #64 #35
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #65
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffWAKE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #28
SuccessSuc #53 #134
ExplosiveExp #21 #12
PPAPPA #38 #118
PowerPwr #33 #18
SP+SP+ #22 #34
Pts POPPO #25 #99
HavocHav #46 #130
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #88 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #110
Run ExplRExp #86 #58
PPAExp #77 #101
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #88
Stuff RateStuff #57 #98
TackleTak -  #91
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #32 #23
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #133
Pass ExplPExl #11 #2
PPAExp #19 #116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #6 #26
F7 HavocF7 #49 #110
DB HavocDB #69 #131
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffSMU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #103 #20
SuccessSuc #81 #9
ExplosiveExp #111 #69
PPAPPA #104 #5
PowerPwr #75 #26
SP+SP+ #70 #25
Pts POPPO #121 #13
HavocHav #82 #29
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #99 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #35
Run ExplRExp #88 #6
PPAExp #106 #2
Run BlockR Blk #114 -
OL YdsOLY #79 #25
Stuff RateStuff #55 #27
TackleTak -  #14
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatWAKE OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #100 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #75 #10
Pass ExplPExl #115 #107
PPAExp #83 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #16 #26
F7 HavocF7 #70 #36
DB HavocDB #93 #30
Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 9
SMU 6.5 (53.5)
Wake Forest won vs SMU this year (13-12)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat SMU last year (13-12)

  
SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017

WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)19132259%24721287.7
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)13055494.343
Ty Clark III7532334.315
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)40611315.393
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)30416213.951
Sawyer Racanelli (Tr)18315117.562

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen1077207
Davaughn Patterson804049
Dylan Hazen739053
Aiden Hall738023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515790
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)399680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)379540
Dallas Afalava (Tr)336481
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson804049
Karon Prunty (Tr)402118
Nick Andersen1077207