Arizona at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview

Friday, January 2nd 2026 (8:00 PM EST)
SMU -1.0 (52.0) (125) Open: -3.0 | 52.5
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA (Trust & Will Holiday Bowl)

Wildcats (9 - 3) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Brent Brennan (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 33 - 19 (29 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: SMU -7 (SP+ ARIZ -0.5)
Projected Score: ARIZ: 22 - SMU: 29 (52)
SMU Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
ARIZ Travel: 826 miles, 1 hrs behind

Mustangs (8 - 4) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
Wins: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
ARIZ Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arizona's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Arizona vs Hawai'i	-13.5	55.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/6	Arizona vs Weber State	-31.5	56.5	W 48 - 3	U	Y
Fri 9/12	Arizona vs Kansas State	+1.5	55.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27	Arizona at Iowa State	+4.0	48.5	L 14 - 39	O	N
Sat 10/4	Arizona vs Oklahoma State	-21.5	56.5	W 41 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/11	Arizona vs BYU	+2.5	46.5	L 27 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/18	Arizona at Houston	-1.5	47.5	L 28 - 31	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Arizona at Colorado	-4.0	52.5	W 52 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Arizona vs Kansas	-5.5	56.5	W 24 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/15	Arizona at Cincinnati	+6.5	56.5	W 30 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/22	Arizona vs Baylor	-6.5	61.5	W 41 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/28	Arizona at Arizona State	-2.0	48.5	W 23 - 7	U	Y
Fri 1/2	Arizona vs SMU	+1.0	52.0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 3, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Arizona's Schedule

SMU's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	SMU vs East Texas A&M	-51.0	65.0	W 42 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/6	SMU vs Baylor	-3.0	65.5	L 45 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/13	SMU at Missouri State	-29.5	60.5	W 28 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/20	SMU at TCU	+6.5	63.5	L 24 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	SMU vs Syracuse	-17.5	56.5	W 31 - 18	U	N
Sat 10/11	SMU vs Stanford	-19.5	55.5	W 34 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/18	SMU at Clemson	+3.5	49.5	W 35 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/25	SMU at Wake Forest	-6.5	53.5	L 12 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/1	SMU vs Miami	+8.5	50.5	W 26 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/8	SMU at Boston College	-10.5	54.5	W 45 - 13	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	SMU vs Louisville	-4.0	49.5	W 38 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/29	SMU at California	-13.5	53.5	L 35 - 38	O	N
Fri 1/2	SMU vs Arizona	-1.0	52.0

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#49 (.2)	43% (63)	32.6	42% (92)	3.05 (49)	151	43% (51)	254	3.57 (81)	#34 (.09)	38% (26)	18.9	45% (96)	33% (6)	3.38 (46)	51.6	1	2.3
SMU	#32 (.23)	42% (69)	32.9	41% (93)	2.91 (73)	136	44% (46)	284	3.93 (49)	#6 (.02)	40% (50)	20.7	37% (11)	44% (96)	2.69 (10)	73	1.3	2.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARIZ	#93 (.15)	39% (117)		37% (126)	2.64 (123)	107	40% (91)	248	3.53 (101)	#109 (.24)	45% (100)		45% (90)	44% (109)	4.55 (125)	57.6	1.7	1.2
SMU	#38 (.24)	44% (53)		44% (62)	2.97 (83)	169	44% (45)	263	4.41 (25)	#5 (.03)	37% (9)		39% (35)	35% (10)	3.09 (13)	77.7	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Offense	12	32.6	29.4	42.5%	3.57	1	22	405	151	254	4.3	46%	54%	42%	43%	15%	.2
SMU Defense	12	20.7	19.2	39.9%	2.69	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	43%	55%	37%	44%	19%	.02

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARIZ Defense	12	18.9	23.6	38.2%	3.38	2.3	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	45%	33%	21%	.09
SMU Offense	12	32.9	36	42.2%	3.93	1.3	21	419	136	284	4.4	42%	56%	41%	44%	17%	.23

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arizona	12	30:45	22	40%	67%	5.6	51.6	1	2.3	6.5	1.8	2	34.2
SMU	12	26:53	20.9	42%	64%	7.1	73	1.3	2.3	6.4	2.9	3	27.7

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Offense	12	46% (100)	42% (92)	35.3	150.8	4.3	20 (88)	.13 (61)	3.05 (49)	76% (46)	9% (64)	1.05 (34)
SMU Defense	12	43% (9)	37% (11)	-	-	-	-	-.11 (2)	2.68 (26)	59% (7)	11% (35)	0.76 (1)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARIZ Defense	12	52% (92)	45% (96)	-	-	-	-	.11 (73)	2.85 (61)	72% (75)	11% (20)	0.92 (45)
SMU Offense	12	42% (123)	41% (93)	30.7	135.6	4.4	22 (70)	.11 (72)	2.91 (73)	80% (20)	10% (86)	1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Offense	12	54% (29)	43% (51)	21.1	33.7	254.4	7.6	12.1	26 (14)	7 (88)	.26 (63)	1.5 (90)	31% (64)	31% (67)	.41 (30)	6% (59)	2.1 (40)
SMU Defense	12	55% (130)	44% (96)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (6)	.2 (50)	1.5 (30)	32% (66)	33% (110)	.3 (69)	9% (8)	1.9 (48)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARIZ Defense	12	46% (35)	33% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	19 (12)	.14 (27)	1.6 (107)	33% (42)	24% (13)	.18 (25)	9% (2)	2.1 (89)
SMU Offense	12	56% (14)	44% (46)	23.7	35.7	283.5	8	12	26 (14)	10 (108)	.39 (24)	1.6 (35)	32% (82)	31% (57)	.36 (46)	7% (103)	2.1 (56)

Arizona's Power Ratings
Arizona's Power Rating: 4.09 #55
Arizona's Offense Rating: 10.86 #58
Arizona's Defense Rating: 6.77 #57
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00 #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #65
Arizona's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Arizona's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.9 #25
Arizona's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.1 #26
Arizona's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #24

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 798.25
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 4.09 SMU: 15.905

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arizona: 13.9 SMU: 13.4

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.905 #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 15.63 #38
SMU's Defense Rating: -2.78 #23
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00 #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4 #27
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #24
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.9 #32

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arizona Scoring
Offense: 32.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.6

Arizona's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 29
Arizona 22

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 25
Arizona 22

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
SMU 28
Arizona 26

Total Points: 54

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	0	0	0 Overs
Arizona	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

Arizona Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Alamo Bowl	Arizona vs Oklahoma	-2.5	59.5	W 38 - 24

SMU Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	CFP 1st Round	SMU vs Penn State	+9.0	52.5	L 10 - 38
2023	Fenway Bowl	SMU vs Boston College	-13.5	49.0	L 14 - 23
2022	Mexico Bowl	SMU vs BYU	-4.5	65.0	L 23 - 24
2019	Raton Bowl	SMU vs Florida Atlantic	-7.5	64.0	L 28 - 52

(#55) ARIZ at (#22) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARIZ	SMU
Power RatePwr	#55	#22
SP+SP+	#25	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#23
OffenseOff	#59	#39
DefenseDef	#18	#23
Spec TeamsST	#95	#51
TalentTal	#73	#64
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#42

Arizona Notes(11/29) 5-0 run to finish 9-3. Incredible season by Brennan
(11/23) Brennan was almost fired last year. Now 8-3 & rolling
(11/22) Killed Baylor for 4 straight wins. Great season
(10/18) 2 straight hard L's vs BYU/Hou. Def awful in B12 play
(9/26) Off based on Expl or bust, Success #'s bad
(9/26) Def #'s incredible, but haven't faced good Off yet
(9/13) Def great, Run Off mauled K St. Huge W
(9/13) Fifita looks reborn, balling out, good decisions
(7/30) WR Hunter back, 4 portals. Better talent/depth
(5/11) 64% of OL exp comes from portal adds
(3/22) Added 16 players that started LY via portal
(3/22) RB adds Mahdi (Tx St), 3 total portals
Arizona Injury Report

SMU Notes(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report

Arizona on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	SMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#59	#23
SuccessSuc	#63	#50
ExplosiveExp	#40	#23
PPAPPA	#49	#6
PowerPwr	#58	#23
SP+SP+	#26	#32
Pts POPPO	#81	#10
HavocHav	#59	#11

Arizona Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	#76	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#92	#11
Run ExplRExp	#34	#1
PPAExp	#61	#2
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	#49	#26
Stuff RateStuff	#70	#23
TackleTak	-	#3

Arizona Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	ARIZ Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#38
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#96
Pass ExplPExl	#90	#30
PPAExp	#63	#50
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#45
F7 HavocF7	#64	#35
DB HavocDB	#59	#8

SMU on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#39	#18
SuccessSuc	#69	#26
ExplosiveExp	#10	#42
PPAPPA	#32	#34
PowerPwr	#38	#57
SP+SP+	#24	#24
Pts POPPO	#49	#46
HavocHav	#101	#5

SMU Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARIZ Def
Run GameRun	#95	#43
Run SuccessRSuc	#93	#96
Run ExplRExp	#48	#45
PPAExp	#72	#73
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#73	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#72
TackleTak	-	#45

SMU Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#26	#3
Pass SuccessPSuc	#46	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#35	#107
PPAExp	#24	#27
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#5	#122
F7 HavocF7	#86	#20
DB HavocDB	#103	#2

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

ARIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 65°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARIZ's OC Seth Doege (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Noah Fifita	247	386	64%	2963	26	5	7.7
Braedyn Locke (Tr)	5	15	33%	68	0	1	4.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ismail Mahdi (Tr)	122	785	4	6.4	68
Kedrick Reescano	83	394	9	4.7	50
Quincy Craig (Tr)	55	335	2	6.1	54
Noah Fifita	102	149	3	1.5	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kris Hutson (Tr)	57	740	4	13.0	40
Javin Whatley (Tr)	38	443	4	11.7	85
Tre Spivey (Tr)	21	359	6	17.1	70
Chris Hunter	25	351	2	14.0	35

View Arizona's Full Roster

ARIZ's DC Danny Gonzales (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dalton Johnson	97	2	1	0	7
Taye Brown	84	9	2	3	1
Genesis Smith	77	3	0	1	8
Max Harris (Tr)	75	4	0	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chase Kennedy	39	8	4	6	0
Riley Wilson (Tr)	49	7	3	4	4
Deshawn McKnight (Tr)	26	11	2	2	0
Taye Brown	84	9	2	3	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Genesis Smith	77	3	1	8
Ayden Garnes (Tr)	34	1	2	8
Michael Dansby (Tr)	17	1	0	8

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kevin Jennings	279	422	66%	3363	26	10	8.0
Charlie Fiser	4	4	100%	30	0	0	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Harden (Tr)	161	747	7	4.6	53
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)	62	463	4	7.5	87
Derrick McFall	32	183	4	5.7	48
Ashaad Clayton	10	83	2	8.3	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Hudson	56	749	6	13.4	70
Romello Brinson	43	638	3	14.8	75
Yamir Knight (Tr)	47	533	5	11.3	61
Matthew Hibner	29	351	4	12.1	37

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ahmaad Moses	91	6	1	0	2
Isaiah Nwokobia	80	2	0	0	7
Brandon Booker	62	3	1	4	2
Alex Kilgore	57	4	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Smith	51	17	9	3	1
Terry Webb (Tr)	44	7	6	1	4
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)	42	8	6	0	0
Cam Robertson	49	10	5	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Brandon Miyazono	40	4	2	0	7
Isaiah Nwokobia	80	2	0	0	7
Deuce Harmon	33	0	0	1	7