Stanford at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Stanford Cardinal at SMU Mustangs

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Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -19.5 (55.5) (-1050)  Open: -18.5
SMU 34 - Stanford: 10  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (13 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
SMU 2nd straight Home Game
STAN coming off BYE
Our Line: SMU -21.5  (SP+ SMU -25)

Projected Score: STAN: 16 - SMU: 37 (53)
SMU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
STAN Travel: 1464 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mustangs (9 - 4) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.7 - 4.3 (#36)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+3.549.5W 35 - 24OY
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-6.553.5L 12 - 13UN
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8.550.5W 26 - 20UY
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-10.554.5W 45 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville-4.049.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13.553.5L 35 - 38ON
Fri 1/2 SMU vs Arizona-2.555.5W 24 - 19UY

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)18.841% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)29.245% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)32.244% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)20.539% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense1218.812.540.1%3.671.8193251341913.750%50%41%39%22%.1
SMU Defense1420.519.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense1229.232.346.6%4.531.3 - - - - - 43%57%45%48%14%.27
SMU Offense1432.23644.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford1231:4118.535%56%5.4491.81.35.32.1228.5
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense1250% (71)41% (95)36.3133.83.711 (116).08 (97)2.72 (116)66% (111)15% (131)1.01 (52)
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense1243% (4)45% (92) - - - - .11 (62)2.92 (53)68% (39)10% (58)0.99 (70)
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense1250% (64)39% (98)18.730.8191.36.210.318 (68)17 (127).13 (111)1.5 (120)32% (82)26% (116).22 (106)7% (102)2.1 (29)
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense1257% (131)48% (124) - - - - - - 9 (76).4 (125)1.6 (69)30% (96)34% (113).33 (85)4% (129)2 (51)
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: 0.81  #66
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: 0.81   SMU: 15.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -11.8   SMU: 13.4




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.925  #29
SMU's Offense Rating: 19.12  #33
SMU's Defense Rating: 5.67  #26
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 8.7 - 4.3
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.4  #23
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.5  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.5
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 37
Stanford 16


Projected Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 9
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11SMU34Stanford10SMU -19.5SMU55.5Under
202410/19Stanford10SMU40SMU -16.5SMU52.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU220 Overs
Stanford002 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#66) STAN at (#29) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANSMU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #29
SP+SP+ #112 #23
Perf GradeGrade #120 #20
OffenseOff #121 #36
DefenseDef #109 #20
Spec TeamsST #36 #60
TalentTal #39 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #42
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
SMU Notes
(10/31) Lashlee extended, will remain at SMU
(10/23) SMU has won 20 straight conference games (Wk 9)
(10/19) Big W @ Clemson, Run Def great, Jennings good
(10/19) SMU has not lost a reg season ACC game, 11-0
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
SMU Injury Report
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #121 #20
SuccessSuc #101 #9
ExplosiveExp #98 #69
PPAPPA #114 #5
PowerPwr #90 #26
SP+SP+ #117 #25
Pts POPPO #92 #13
HavocHav #132 #29
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #73 #13
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #35
Run ExplRExp #52 #6
PPAExp #97 #2
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #25
Stuff RateStuff #127 #27
TackleTak -  #14
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #125 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #10
Pass ExplPExl #120 #107
PPAExp #111 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #26
F7 HavocF7 #131 #36
DB HavocDB #102 #30
SMU on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffSTAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #36 #109
SuccessSuc #53 #119
ExplosiveExp #21 #103
PPAPPA #38 #120
PowerPwr #33 #36
SP+SP+ #22 #78
Pts POPPO #25 #124
HavocHav #46 #94
SMU Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
SMU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #88 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #92
Run ExplRExp #86 #70
PPAExp #77 #62
Run BlockR Blk #22 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #53
Stuff RateStuff #57 #29
TackleTak -  #116
SMU Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 42%
CategoryCatSMU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #32 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #124
Pass ExplPExl #11 #69
PPAExp #19 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #6 #119
F7 HavocF7 #49 #58
DB HavocDB #69 #129
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
SMU -19.5 (55.5)
SMU won vs Stanford this year (34-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Stanford last year (34-10)
SMU beat Stanford in 2024 (40-10)

  
STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings30045466%364126138.0
Charlie Fiser44100%30007.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)17178794.653
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)6747947.187
Derrick McFall3518945.448
Dramekco Green259013.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson61766612.670
Romello Brinson43638314.875
Yamir Knight (Tr)54637511.861
Matthew Hibner31436414.180

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmaad Moses1046103
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Brandon Booker693142
Alex Kilgore604002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Smith5318941
Terry Webb (Tr)467624
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)428600
Cam Robertson5210543
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brandon Miyazono445208
Isaiah Nwokobia802007
Deuce Harmon341017