Stanford at SMU - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stanford logo Stanford Cardinal at SMU MustangsSMU logo
Saturday, October 11th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
SMU -19.5 (55.5) (-1050)  Open: -18.5
SMU 34 - Stanford: 10  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (13 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
SMU 2nd straight Home Game
STAN coming off BYE
Our Line: SMU -25.5  (SP+ SMU -19)

Projected Score: STAN: 15 - SMU: 40 (55)
SMU Win prob: 88% | Cover: 46%
STAN Travel: 1464 miles, 2 hrs behind
Mustangs (4 - 2) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (29 - 12)
Avg Score : 34 - 22 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
SMU's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 SMU vs East Texas A&M-51.065.0W 42 - 13UN
Sat 9/6 SMU vs Baylor-3.065.5L 45 - 48ON
Sat 9/13 SMU at Missouri State-29.560.5W 28 - 10UN
Sat 9/20 SMU at TCU+6.563.5L 24 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 SMU vs Syracuse-17.556.5W 31 - 18UN
Sat 10/11 SMU vs Stanford-19.555.5W 34 - 10UY
Sat 10/18 SMU at Clemson+10.055.5
Sat 10/25 SMU at Wake Forest-5.5
Sat 11/1 SMU vs Miami+8
Sat 11/8 SMU at Boston College-16.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 SMU vs Louisville+0.5
Sat 11/29 SMU at California-13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
SMU#36 (.27)44% (58)3441% (94)3.03 (61)12747% (30)2784.32 (49)#18 (.04)41% (59)22.338% (32)43% (83)2.38 (3)67.81.52.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense618.813.338.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11
SMU Defense622.322.340.6%2.382.3 - - - - - 41%58%38%43%21%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense630.23345.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
SMU Offense6343844.1%4.321.522405127278446%53%41%47%17%.27

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
SMU626:1921.538%75%767.81.52.36.73.2328.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)
SMU Defense641% (7)38% (32) - - - - -.06 (12)2.58 (29)59% (15)11% (51)0.86 (28)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
SMU Offense646% (101)41% (94)31.5127.249 (77).12 (72)3.03 (61)84% (13)10% (98)1.04 (43)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)
SMU Defense658% (130)43% (83) - - - - - - 10 (5).11 (30)1.5 (52)35% (28)32% (98).23 (48)11% (2)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
SMU Offense653% (41)47% (30)2332277.88.712.115 (13)6 (102).46 (23)1.6 (49)31% (72)28% (96).35 (59)6% (93)2.2 (23)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -3.32  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -3.32   SMU: 18.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -10.2   SMU: 8.8




SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 18.805  #22
SMU's Offense Rating: 20.49  #30
SMU's Defense Rating: -3.32  #20
2025 Talent Rating: 756.00  #64
Blue Chip Ratio: 9  #42
SMU's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
SMU's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #44
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #29
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #59

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.3
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 40
Stanford 15


Total Points: 55

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 35
Stanford 23

Total Points: 58

Based on Entire Season
SMU 34
Stanford 19

Total Points: 53
SMU Scoring
Offense: 34 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

SMU's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11SMU34Stanford10SMU -19.5SMU55.5Under
202410/19Stanford10SMU40SMU -16.5SMU52.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
SMU220 Overs
Stanford002 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 11 - 11 - 00 - 1

(#85) STAN at (#22) SMU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANSMU
Power RatePwr #85 #22
SP+SP+ #108 #44
Perf GradeGrade #116 #35
OffenseOff #87 #35
DefenseDef #130 #21
Spec TeamsST #26 #78
TalentTal #39 #64
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #42

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues

SMU Notes
(9/20) Run Off bad, Jennings TOs & Def are major issues
(9/20) Def allowing 41.5 pts vs real competition, woof
(7/27) S Isaiah Nwokobia & Ahmaad Moses great duo
(6/14) Same HC, OC, DC, S&C coaches for 4 years
(5/28) OT PJ Williams a future star, 900+ snaps of A ball
(5/28) Def good LY, must replace a lot, 13 portal adds
(5/20) DL added 10 portals (7 from P4), both DEs back
(5/20) LB replaces most, 2 productive G5 portal adds
(5/20) OL decent LY, 4 exp'd starters, 3 P4 portal adds
(5/20) Pass D really good LY, have #1 CB, good at S
(5/3) RBs rebuild. Soph McFall #1, good depth/potential
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #21
SuccessSuc #120 #59
ExplosiveExp #67 #58
PPAPPA #109 #18
PowerPwr #96 #20
SP+SP+ #106 #59
Pts POPPO #129 #3
HavocHav #100 #11
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #62 #16
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #32
Run ExplRExp #102 #28
PPAExp #118 #12
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #29
Stuff RateStuff #83 #8
TackleTak -  #23
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #101 #47
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #83
Pass ExplPExl #62 #52
PPAExp #87 #30
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #111 #60
F7 HavocF7 #102 #51
DB HavocDB #87 #2
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #35 #130
SuccessSuc #58 #115
ExplosiveExp #15 #66
PPAPPA #36 #108
PowerPwr #30 #75
SP+SP+ #29 #99
Pts POPPO #49 #42
HavocHav #99 #124
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
SMU OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #124 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #94 #112
Run ExplRExp #43 #15
PPAExp #72 #40
Run BlockR Blk #31 -
OL YdsOLY #61 #102
Stuff RateStuff #71 #109
TackleTak -  #115
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatSMU OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #35 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #30 #108
Pass ExplPExl #49 #74
PPAExp #23 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #1 #107
F7 HavocF7 #98 #126
DB HavocDB #93 #106
Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 87°
Rematch from Week 7
SMU -19.5 (55.5)
SMU won vs Stanford this year (34-10)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Stanford last year (40-10)

  
STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002

SMU's OC Casey Woods (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings13719172%16581568.7
Ty Hawkins11100%9009.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Harden (Tr)8541554.940
Chris Johnson Jr. (Tr)2822628.187
Dramekco Green185513.113
Derrick McFall123002.59
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Romello Brinson32484315.175
Jalen Cooper15271218.175
Jordan Hudson15203213.537
Yamir Knight (Tr)2119029.034

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Ahmaad Moses444100
Brandon Booker331130
Cam Robertson318532
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cam Robertson318532
Jeffrey M'Ba (Tr)225400
Terry Webb (Tr)203301
Isaiah Smith227321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia482006
Brandon Miyazono212105
Deuce Harmon190004