South Florida at North Texas Game Matchup

South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean Green

Friday, October 10th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Apogee Stadium - Denton, TX (American Athletic)

Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 4.7 (#46)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 7)

UNT coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -6 (SP+ USF -3.5)
Projected Score: USF: 35 - UNT: 29 (65)
USF Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
USF Travel: 942 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Mean Green (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (33 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 5 (#51)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
USF Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

South Florida's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	South Florida vs Boise State	+9.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	South Florida at Florida	+21.5
Sat 9/13	South Florida at Miami	+22
Sat 9/20	South Florida vs South Carolina State	-24
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3	South Florida vs Charlotte	-23.5
Fri 10/10	South Florida at North Texas	-6
Sat 10/18	South Florida vs Florida Atlantic	-17
Sat 10/25	South Florida at Memphis	+4
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6	South Florida vs UTSA	-2.5
Sat 11/15	South Florida at Navy	-3
Sat 11/22	South Florida at UAB	-12.5
Sat 11/29	South Florida vs Rice	-19.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

North Texas's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/29	North Texas vs Lamar	-15.5
Sat 9/6	North Texas at Western Michigan	-7
Sat 9/13	North Texas vs Washington State	-4.5
Sat 9/20	North Texas at Army	+7
Sat 9/27	North Texas vs South Alabama	+2.5
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10	North Texas vs South Florida	+6
Sat 10/18	North Texas vs UTSA	+6
Fri 10/24	North Texas at Charlotte	-10
Sat 11/1	North Texas vs Navy	+0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	North Texas at UAB	-4
Sat 11/22	North Texas at Rice	-6.5
Sat 11/29	North Texas vs Temple	-13

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF	#83 (.17)	38% (118)	32.2	39% (112)	3.06 (60)	181	38% (106)	227	3.88 (74)	#66 (.16)	39% (36)	29.8	38% (17)	40% (69)	4 (88)	70.9	1.4	2.1
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)	33.5	40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)	34.2	47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
USF		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Offense	13	32.2	34.3	38.3%	3.88	1.4	20	408	181	227	4.8	48%	52%	39%	38%	15%	.17
UNT Defense	13	34.2	26	44.3%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	47%	42%	11%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
USF Defense	13	29.8	31.8	39.2%	4	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	38%	40%	20%	.16
UNT Offense	13	33.5	33.2	42.5%	3.91	1.5	22	451	153	298	5.6	38%	62%	40%	44%	15%	.23

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
South Florida	13	25:10	20.4	39%	56%	8.1	70.9	1.4	2.1	8.1	2.5	2	30.7
North Texas	13	25:05	22.1	36%	48%	6.3	52.5	1.5	1.1	4.5	1.7	1	28.4

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Offense	13	48% (82)	39% (112)	37.8	180.8	4.8	34 (10)	.2 (32)	3.06 (60)	66% (114)	10% (62)	1.26 (3)
UNT Defense	13	54% (105)	47% (106)	-	-	-	-	.19 (102)	3.29 (111)	75% (74)	7% (128)	0.96 (54)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
USF Defense	13	49% (46)	38% (17)	-	-	-	-	.04 (26)	2.63 (18)	70% (48)	13% (11)	1.13 (121)
UNT Offense	13	38% (129)	40% (109)	27.6	153.2	5.6	22 (55)	.17 (44)	2.75 (111)	58% (128)	9% (51)	1.25 (4)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Offense	13	52% (51)	38% (106)	20.2	34.1	227.5	6.7	11.3	16 (87)	10 (63)	.13 (113)	1.5 (109)	34% (114)	25% (121)	.22 (105)	6% (68)	2.2 (21)
UNT Defense	13	46% (26)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (98)	1.7 (94)	31% (90)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	4% (128)	2.1 (93)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
USF Defense	13	51% (91)	40% (69)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (31)	.28 (89)	1.6 (78)	34% (32)	32% (87)	.3 (64)	7% (46)	1.9 (32)
UNT Offense	13	62% (6)	44% (39)	25.2	39.8	298	7.5	11.9	31 (6)	12 (85)	.26 (64)	1.6 (60)	33% (88)	34% (35)	.35 (64)	6% (71)	2 (93)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 4.64 #53
South Florida's Offense Rating: 16.82 #49
South Florida's Defense Rating: 12.18 #55
2025 Talent Rating: 850.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 4.64 North Texas: -5.4

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: -3.5 North Texas: -7.2

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -5.4 #90
North Texas's Offense Rating: 9.28 #98
North Texas's Defense Rating: 17.88 #87
2025 Talent Rating: 592.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #127

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 532.14
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.29

South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.8

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
South Florida 35
North Texas 29

Projected Total Points: 65

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.2
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2002	10/05	North Texas	17	South Florida	24	South Florida
2001	09/29	South Florida	28	North Texas	10	South Florida

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	0	0	0 Overs
South Florida	2	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#53) South Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.64 #53
Offense Rating: 16.82 #49
Defense Rating: 12.18 #55
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.5 #77
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #44
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #107
Talent Rating: 850.00 #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #62
Expected Record: 7.3 - 4.7

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 38%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

South Florida Notes
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) RB rebuild. Norton (Char) added, some depth
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
(3/23) Def bad LY, return a lot. 3 DL portals added
(3/23) OL improve? QB settle? Could be really good
(3/23) HC Golesh former OC. Big year for staff

South Florida Ratings Matchup North Texas

Power #53

#90

Off #49

#98

Def #55

#87

Talent #32

#85

SP+ #77

#92

SP+ Off #44

#37

SP+ Def #107

#127

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: USF | UNT
Depth Chart: USF | UNT
Rosters: USF | UNT

(#90) North Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.4 #90
Offense Rating: 9.28 #98
Defense Rating: 17.88 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -7.2 #92
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.0 #37
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #127
Talent Rating: 592.00 #85
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Texas Notes
(3/23) QB Mestemaker/Poffenbarger(UM)/Jimerson(Fr)
(3/23) RB rebuild, McGill/Sibley? 3 Portal adds
(3/23) WR rebuild, have 5 exp options. Evans (SHSU)
(3/23) Def bad LY, 9 DL, 7 DB portal adds, new DC
(3/23) New DC Cassity was SHSU DC, Alb Chr before
(3/22) 8 portals from SHSU (4 starters) with DC

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Bryce Archie	172	290	59%	1914	9	10	6.6
Byrum Brown	78	132	59%	836	2	0	6.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cartevious Norton (Tr)	129	525	7	4.1	62
Byrum Brown	68	269	3	4.0	42
Bryce Archie	68	137	2	2.0	35
Sam Franklin (Tr)	18	132	0	7.3	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keshaun Singleton	27	428	3	15.9	67
Joshua Porter	24	210	0	8.8	32
Wyatt Sullivan (Tr)	13	155	2	11.9	38
Chas Nimrod (Tr)	10	121	0	12.1	27

View South Florida's Full Roster

South Florida's DC Todd Orlando

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Tavin Ward	61	2	0	0	3
Rocco Nicholl (Tr)	61	1	0	3	2
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mac Harris	82	12	4	6	2
Chavez Brown (Tr)	49	8	4	1	0
Jhalyn Shuler	60	7	4	4	1
Ira Singleton	12	3	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
De'Shawn Rucker	41	2	0	7
Ben Knox	22	1	1	6
Izaiah Guy (Tr)	30	0	0	5

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)	6	7	86%	20	0	0	2.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19
Ashaad Clayton	27	198	1	7.3	28
Drew Mestemaker	14	87	1	6.2	70

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Simeon Evans (Tr)	43	474	5	11.0	64
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49
Dalton Carnes	29	371	2	12.8	34
Wyatt Young	18	295	2	16.4	75

View North Texas's Full Roster

North Texas's DC Skyler Cassity

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Fields (Tr)	72	6	1	2	1
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1
Quinton Hammonds	52	2	0	1	1
Shane Whitter	49	2	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Briceon Hayes (Tr)	26	7	5	3	2
Richard Outland	15	5	3	3	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1
Fatafehi Vailea	34	4	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
David Fisher (Tr)	33	2	6
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)	26	2	4
Taylor Starling	20	2	4