South Florida at North Texas - 2025 Matchup Preview
South Florida logo (#24)South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean GreenNorth Texas logo
Friday, October 10th 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Texas -2.5 (68.5) (-135)  Open: -1.5
South Florida 63 - North Texas: 36  (American Athletic)

 
Bulls (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (13 - 12)
Avg Score : 41 - 23 (35 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 3.1 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
UNT coming off BYE
Our Line: South Florida -4.5  (SP+ UNT -3)

Projected Score: USF: 35 - UNT: 31 (66)
UNT Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
USF Travel: 942 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Mean Green (12 - 2) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (11 - 13)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.6 - 2.4 (#9)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
South Florida's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 South Florida vs Boise State+8.563.5W 34 - 7UY
Sat 9/6 South Florida at Florida+18.558.0W 18 - 16UY
Sat 9/13 South Florida at Miami+17.556.5L 12 - 49ON
Sat 9/20 South Florida vs South Carolina State-36.056.5W 63 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/3 South Florida vs Charlotte-28.554.5W 54 - 26ON
Fri 10/10 South Florida at North Texas+2.568.5W 63 - 36OY
Sat 10/18 South Florida vs Florida Atlantic-20.572.5W 48 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 South Florida at Memphis-3.558.5L 31 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/6 South Florida vs UTSA-14.066.5W 55 - 23OY
Sat 11/15 South Florida at Navy-8.562.5L 38 - 41ON
Sat 11/22 South Florida at UAB-21.568.5W 48 - 18UY
Sat 11/29 South Florida vs Rice-28.557.5W 52 - 3UY
Wed 12/17 South Florida vs Old Dominion-4.052.5L 10 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule
North Texas's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 North Texas vs Lamar-27.563.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/6 North Texas at Western Michigan-12.056.0W 33 - 30ON
Sat 9/13 North Texas vs Washington State-6.557.5W 59 - 10OY
Sat 9/20 North Texas at Army-2.550.5W 45 - 38OY
Sat 9/27 North Texas vs South Alabama-13.563.5W 36 - 22UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/10 North Texas vs South Florida-2.568.5L 36 - 63ON
Sat 10/18 North Texas vs UTSA-4.064.5W 55 - 17OY
Fri 10/24 North Texas at Charlotte-25.560.5W 54 - 20OY
Sat 11/1 North Texas vs Navy-6.568.5W 31 - 17UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 North Texas at UAB-17.569.5W 53 - 24OY
Sat 11/22 North Texas at Rice-18.557.0W 56 - 24OY
Fri 11/28 North Texas vs Temple-20.065.5W 52 - 25OY
Fri 12/5 North Texas at Tulane-1.566.5L 21 - 34UN
Sat 12/27 North Texas vs San Diego State-7.555.5W 49 - 47ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#15 (.31)46% (27)40.547% (28)3.33 (14)21246% (28)2764.45 (21)#25 (.07)38% (24)23.438% (17)38% (40)3.15 (29)611.51.9
UNT#3 (.36)51% (4)45.153% (3)3.58 (2)16851% (8)2994.98 (3)#78 (.18)44% (93)26.548% (125)37% (29)3.93 (97)39.11.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
USF#83 (.17)38% (118)39% (112)3.06 (60)18138% (106)2273.88 (74)#66 (.16)39% (36)38% (17)40% (69)4 (88)70.91.42.1
UNT#45 (.23)42% (70)40% (109)2.75 (111)15344% (39)2983.91 (69)#98 (.22)44% (98)47% (106)42% (79)4.03 (93)52.51.51.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Offense1340.53546.4%4.451.5244882122765.551%48%47%46%14%.31
UNT Defense1426.52243.6%3.931.8 - - - - - 60%38%48%37%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
USF Defense1323.432.337.8%3.151.9 - - - - - 48%51%38%38%16%.07
UNT Offense1445.145.751.2%4.981.2244671682995.147%51%53%51%12%.36

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
South Florida1325:2423.846%59%6.6611.51.96.52.5329.5
North Texas1426:0323.546%69%4.939.11.21.851.6033.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Offense1351% (55)47% (28)38.8212.25.529 (30).18 (39)3.33 (14)81% (10)8% (25)0.98 (60)
UNT Defense1460% (134)48% (125) - - - - .18 (110)3.23 (120)78% (114)9% (78)0.98 (82)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
USF Defense1348% (46)38% (17) - - - - .02 (23)2.63 (20)79% (120)11% (43)1.06 (113)
UNT Offense1447% (87)53% (3)33.1167.95.145 (1).33 (4)3.58 (2)73% (67)7% (12)1.11 (13)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Offense1348% (80)46% (28)20.831.2275.68.813.333 (8)11 (60).48 (8)1.7 (14)29% (24)30% (75).43 (23)6% (81)2.3 (5)
UNT Defense1438% (2)37% (29) - - - - - - 13 (31).21 (56)1.7 (113)29% (116)29% (62).27 (62)4% (127)1.9 (30)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
USF Defense1351% (94)38% (40) - - - - - - 14 (6).17 (37)1.6 (68)37% (8)27% (38).23 (44)6% (81)2 (53)
UNT Offense1451% (47)51% (8)21.330.6299.49.814.132 (8)7 (20).43 (17)1.6 (63)26% (12)39% (8).44 (21)5% (25)2 (73)

South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 18.25  #23
South Florida's Offense Rating: 22.95  #12
South Florida's Defense Rating: 4.70  #44
2025 Talent Rating: 876.00  #30
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #79
South Florida's 2025 Expected Record: 9.9 - 3.1
South Florida's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.6  #23
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.9  #10
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3  #58

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 18.25   North Texas: 11.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
South Florida: 14.6   North Texas: 17.5




North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: 11.85  #65
North Texas's Offense Rating: 16.98  #28
North Texas's Defense Rating: 15.78  #115
2025 Talent Rating: 618.00  #91
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
North Texas's 2025 Expected Record: 11.6 - 2.4
North Texas's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #15
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2  #1
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


South Florida Scoring
Offense: 40.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

South Florida's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
South Florida 35
North Texas 31


Total Points: 66

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 37
South Florida 23

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
North Texas 37
South Florida 31

Total Points: 68
North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2025 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 10 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 6 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/10North Texas36South Florida63North Texas -2.5South Florida68.5Over
200210/05North Texas17South Florida24
200109/29South Florida28North Texas10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Texas001 Overs
South Florida310 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 20 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams2 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#23) USF at (#65) UNT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUSFUNT
Power RatePwr #23 #65
SP+SP+ #23 #15
Perf GradeGrade #29 #8
OffenseOff #15 #3
DefenseDef #61 #27
Spec TeamsST #75 #54
TalentTal #30 #91
Blue ChipsBC% #79 #101
South Florida Notes
(12/16) Hiring Tim Beck as OC for reasons unknown.
(12/3) Hiring OSU OC Brian Hartline, Golesh left for Auburn
(10/10) Mauled N Texas, over 600 yds offense, 300 rushing
(10/4) Still running QB Brown 17 times in Char blowout?
(8/29) QB Brown great vs Boise, tough runner. Big W
(8/28) LB good, exp'd. Starters have over 40 starts
(7/12) Golesh go-go offense could fun after Sept
(6/2) RBs Franklin (OU) & Norton (Char) added
(5/11) OL top 10 exp, 78% returning, 22% via portal
(3/23) QB Brown vs Archie, both inconsistent LY
(3/23) WR lost #1, Nimrod (Tenn)/Singleton good
(3/23) OL returns 4/5. 3 more with exp, 2 portals
South Florida Injury Report
North Texas Notes
(12/6) Caleb Hawkins inj in MWC title game was huge
(12/2) Hired HC Neal Brown after Morris leaves for Ok St
(11/28) 600+ yds of Off in Temple W. NT in the AAC Title Game
(10/24) 37-0 closing run vs Char, Mestemaker 600+ yds
(10/10) UNT has allowed 200+ yds rushing 3 straight games
(10/9) NT Fatafehi Vailea II out for season, big loss
(10/9) DBs much better than F7, DL issues esp vs run
(10/8) Best Tackling grade via PFF into USF game
(9/19) Off on a tear, rFr QB Mestemaker brilliant start
(9/15) Mestemaker, Off has been great, WR deep
(8/18) QB1 rFr. Drew Mestemaker has won the job
(7/23) Sleeper, took SHSU Def best in the portal
North Texas Injury Report
South Florida on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffUNT Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #27
SuccessSuc #27 #93
ExplosiveExp #28 #43
PPAPPA #15 #78
PowerPwr #12 #115
SP+SP+ #10 #67
Pts POPPO #21 #97
HavocHav #44 #107
South Florida Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffUNT Def
Run GameRun #19 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #28 #125
Run ExplRExp #60 #82
PPAExp #39 #110
Run BlockR Blk #48 -
OL YdsOLY #14 #120
Stuff RateStuff #11 #127
TackleTak -  #8
South Florida Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
USF OffUNT Def
Pass GamePass #9 #16
Pass SuccessPSuc #28 #29
Pass ExplPExl #14 #113
PPAExp #8 #56
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #15 #78
F7 HavocF7 #25 #78
DB HavocDB #81 #127
North Texas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUSF Def
Perf GradePerf #3 #61
SuccessSuc #4 #24
ExplosiveExp #30 #107
PPAPPA #3 #25
PowerPwr #28 #44
SP+SP+ #1 #58
Pts POPPO #3 #29
HavocHav #9 #58
North Texas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
UNT OffUSF Def
Run GameRun #5 #74
Run SuccessRSuc #3 #17
Run ExplRExp #13 #113
PPAExp #4 #23
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #2 #20
Stuff RateStuff #9 #16
TackleTak -  #130
North Texas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatUNT OffUSF Def
Pass GamePass #2 #70
Pass SuccessPSuc #8 #40
Pass ExplPExl #63 #68
PPAExp #17 #37
Pass Block/RushP Blk #19 #18
F7 HavocF7 #12 #43
DB HavocDB #25 #81
Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

USF 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 86° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 7
North Texas -2.5 (68.5)
South Florida won at North Texas this year (63-36)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
USF's OC Joel Gordon (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Byrum Brown22634166%31582879.3
Gaston Moore (Tr)344871%290226.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Byrum Brown1751008145.860
Nykahi Davenport9861276.260
Sam Franklin (Tr)8047445.973
Alvon Isaac7335004.849
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton50877817.566
Jeremiah Koger38597815.763
Mudia Reuben (Tr)36495513.860
Chas Nimrod (Tr)23466320.355

View South Florida's Full Roster

USF's DC Todd Orlando (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Mac Harris1038672
Tavin Ward602002
De'Shawn Rucker582004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris1038672
Jarvis Lee Jr.5512442
Ricardo Watson497351
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jhalyn Shuler1059368
De'Shawn Rucker582004
Jonas Duclona (Tr)353104

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drew Mestemaker31946569%43693499.4
Reese Poffenbarger (Tr)5771%36005.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Hawkins2301424256.251
Makenzie McGill7538955.227
Ashton Gray5837756.551
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Wyatt Young7012641018.184
Cameron Dorner55886816.177
Miles Coleman47550211.759
Landon Sides34449113.260

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Skyler Cassity (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ethan Wesloski1129260
Trey Fields (Tr)1007162
Will Jones II (Tr)824012
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Keviyan Huddleston (Tr)3110510
Ethan Day (Tr)547580
Joshua Pierce (Tr)142210
Zhaiylen Scott142230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Fisher (Tr)483016
Bryan Allen Jr.151004
Da'Veawn Armstead (Tr)434104